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Global Markets Analysis – 23 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

23.08.2017周三上涨速率过快上涨幅度过猛谨防油脂商品短暂的回落整理

美国农作物巡查小组正在美国中西部地区进行为期4天的巡查工作,从当前对美大豆巡查公布的不利结果来看,引发了市场投资人士担心美大豆产量不及官方估计的担忧情绪。美盘黄豆连回落整理到前低位置后,期价受到支撑,开始出现低位反弹迹象苗头。另外,美国商务部昨日周二晚间传出消息-----初步提议将对印尼和阿根廷进口的生物柴油分别征收50%与60%的进口关税。该消息若能兑现将对美盘豆油呈现严重利好。美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间“5连阳”期价反身上涨,今天周三亚洲电子盘更是大幅跳空高开,期价上涨至7月28日前高点附近,短线角度的上行态势较为明显,并且初步显露加速迹象。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日周二盘面中阳上涨,期价上破前期横盘整理“上沿”的技术压力阻挡,期价依托下方均线系统的支撑,短线的震荡爬升延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在连续“四连阳”上涨过后,期价上涨到前高点的技术压力位置时候,原本我们预计在前高位置震荡反复一下,小幅整理夯实之后,期价更能有力度上涨。可昨日马盘棕榈油的表现为延续5连阳上涨,仅仅是只想一个上影线的回落动作就能一笔带过“整理”(不现实)------从马盘棕榈油的昨日表现来看,存在上破前高点之后的盘面“加速”动作,但昨日的上影线已经暴露出些许短多获利盘的减仓动作,未来2天的小阴K线的整理不可避免。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线反身上行走势延续中,由于短线的反身动作迅捷,并且期价在上涨幅度上步伐略大了一些(理论上,若略微整理之后再继续上行则维持时间可略长一些/ 若持续加速,拒绝回头调整,则反弹的时间将可能缩短)。其实反弹上行也就不可能一直是阳K线加速状态,不经过小阴K线的整理,根基是不牢固的。我们今日保持短线反弹上行过程中 短暂回落整理观点,整理之后我们继续看高一线。具体操作上:前期反手多单继续持有,谨慎对待盘面上的小幅整理动作。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils rebounded and continuing its uptrend at the moment.
• The markets moved upward consecutively for a few days, which might have a retracement before those markets move upward again.
• We hold short-term short outlook as downward correction is expected to begin.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are holding long positions may retain those positions but be cautious in the downward correction of the markets.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

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Global Markets Analysis – 22 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

22.08.2017周二油脂类商品昨日短线反手多单继续持有

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周一晚间又阳K线上涨表现,已经“四连阳”------昨日晚间的上影响,表明经过短线快速拉升之后,期价上涨存在一定的压力(短线分时图上涨速度过快,需要小幅整理),只要小阴K线的下挫幅度不要太大,我们继续保持短多观点不变。

最新消息----中央环境保护督察组将陆续进驻山东省,严格的环境督情况令山东油脂商品加工企业小心谨慎,已经有部分豆油加工企业紧急停工。山东地区以及周边省市(比如河南省)豆油价格有140---160元/吨的涨幅。此次环保检查为期9个月(2017.6.28日---2018.3.31日),督查1个月。对山东周边省市来说,严厉的环境督查令油脂加工企业小心翼翼,这提振周边豆油商品价格。内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,三天三连阳后,今天周二盘面小阴K线表现,短线出现调整迹象,但不会影响震荡上涨的短多态势,我们继续保持短多观点。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,昨日周一阳K线上涨,“四连阳”走势稳健,期价上坡前高点(2702---2705令吉特),并创出近5个月来新高点。考虑到美盘内盘短线出现整理,恐马盘棕榈也将出现一个小幅整理动作,激进交易者可逢高多单平仓,待阴K线低点位置再接回多单(只针对短线操作手法熟练交易者),而稳健型交易可不必此操作,前高附近的震荡波动是在所难免。

小结:油脂类商品短线反身上涨,期价上扬速度迅捷,连续红盘上涨之后的小幅整理动作不可避免,只要期价下挫幅度不大-----我们则继续短多思维对待。具体操作上:短线多单可继续持有,部分交易者可滚动操作一下,整理过后期价仍有见新高可能。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils rebounded and moved upward.
• The downward correction of the global edible oils can't be avoided after edible oils increased consecutively for a few days.
• We remain short-term long outlook as long as the downward correction is not much.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions as edible oils may rise to the new high.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 August 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices recovered from USD46.50 /barrel bottom on Friday and closed at USD48.70 /barrel. Besides falling stockpile in U.S. report, weakening Dollar Index topping off 94.00 is one reason for seeking hedge haven in risker assets. This week, we reckon the trend will be constricted from USD47 – USD50 /barrel without a breaking signal.

Gold

Gold prices fizzled out at USD1300 /oz on Friday and closed at USD1283 /oz area. Market should be temporarily resisted at USD1300 /oz as we predicted last week. We foresee the range will be prone to some profit-taking this week while strangled between from USD1270 – USD1300 /oz. On hind side, beware if the market pierces above USD1300 /oz due to unforeseen circumstances as tension in U.S. –North Korea may magnify.

Silver

Silver prices fell...

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Trump Winds Up the Advisory Council

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 21 August 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. President Trump closes the advisory council after leaders left one after another, especially after the his biased comments on supremacist rally in Charlottesville. Eurozone's GDP matches forecast at 0.6 percent. Terrorist attack claimed by Islamic State hits Barcelona in Spain.

The U.S. housing permit grew 1.22 million while housing starts rose 1.16 million in July, both under consensus. Jobless claims for the week ended 12 August was 232,000 and lower than previous week 244,000.

American industrial production including utilities and mines gained 0.2 percent in July and missed forecast. Another report on capacity utility in July was steady at 76.7 percent in-line with forecast.

Following the comments from President Trump on rally in Charlottesville on last weekend, more business leaders are leaving the council. Trump has announced on...

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Global Markets Analysis – 21 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

21.08.2017 周一油脂类商品整体出现短线走强

受助于一波低吸买盘与空头回补双重力量作用下-------美盘豆油12月合约上周五晚间中阳上涨,至此,K线形态上瞬间形成了“三颗红小兵”反身上行状态,美盘豆油的突然走强,比我们预期的早了一天,我们也要及时转变思维,以暂时的短线反弹观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,期价依托多头排列的均线系统(下方40天均线),受美盘豆油走强提振,今天周一早盘红盘上涨表现,我们建议老空单全部出局,短多跟进。

马来西亚方面,考虑到主要消费市场印度(排灯节)中国(中秋节)油脂商品需要提前一个月备货,未来消费旺季到来,这也是马棕榈前期拒绝下跌的主要心理原因。马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在上周五的就提前红盘上涨(更早一步三颗阳K线上涨表现),今天周一早盘仍小幅高开,短线稍微整理之后,存在挑战前高可能(若一旦突破7月31日,8月14日前高,则上方再无阻挡压力)会进一步走强 ,我们密切关注马棕榈的后期表现。

小结:全球油脂商品整体出现走强(包括纽约原油上周五晚间也长阳K线上涨),期价的瞬间变动比我们预期的早了一天。对油脂类商品来说-------当前不具备单边独立大涨行情,仅会出现瞬间的盘面快速多空转变,并且转变的速度非常快,往往超出市场的预期,我们建议散户朋友以短线观点对待当前市场,在这频繁变盘的基本特征前提下-----我们要做的就是尽量“踏对市场节拍”,在多空频繁转变时候,快进快出的短线操作手法追随市场。具体操作上:剩余老空单全部出局,反手短多跟进,油脂市场后市存在震荡走高可能。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils begins to show an uptrend, earlier than we had expected.
• Edible oils may not move greatly in either direction. Instead, markets may oscillate at a faster pace.
• Retail traders are advised to view markets in a short-term timeframe.
• We are hoping to capture the market rhythm, entering into and exiting from positions in short durations.

[ACTION]
• Traders may liquidate short-positions and switch to long, in anticipation of a possible uptrend.

This post is...

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Global Markets Analysis – 18 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

18.08.2017周五美盘油脂类商品下挫到关键技术位置期价出现反复

美盘黄豆连下挫到前低附近,美盘豆油12月合约一度瞬间毛刺下破60天均线的支撑-----美盘油脂商品正处于关键技术位附近,本波回落整理接近短线调整的“尾声阶段”,我们在本周末下周初以谨慎的短空观点看待的同时,要时刻防止期价突然“触底”之后的反身动作出现,继续关注下方的技术支撑力度。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,短线期价只回抽到下方40天均线位置就不再下跌(40天来的平均价格),而距离下方60天均线只一步之遥,却死活不下来,今天周五红盘小阳K线表现,盘面上短多的护盘动作仍比较明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月(或10月),本周三期价下坠,但昨日周四盘面又再度跳上去,今天周五盘中十字星红盘表现,马棕榈的短线的强势特征依旧较为明显,周边外围市场对马盘棕榈油影响力渐小----马棕榈油跟涨不跟跌的盘面特征较前期来说更为明显。

小结:本周美盘油脂类商品受利空情绪影响较重(单产上调,库存上调),期价下挫的幅度也远大于内盘与马盘油脂商品,考虑到美盘油脂商品回落整理接近尾声阶段,再考虑到内盘马盘油脂商品拒绝下挫的盘面特征,我们部分散户朋友手中剩余的空单风险在一天天增大,对于一直没有找到空单平仓好机会的散户朋友来说------最多在下周初空单尽量能平仓出局,接下来我们下周的重点将转移逢低多单埋伏操作上来,在这里我们提前说明一下,好让大家心理上有个准备的时间。

[SUMMARY]
• In this week, US edible oils dropped sharply as the production and the end of stock on US edible oils increase.
• The sharp drop on the market of US edible oils is more serious than the markets of China and Malaysia edible oils.
• It appears the downward correction on the markets of China and Malaysia edible oils is likely to end.

[ACTION]
• Retail traders who are holding short positions may seek opportunity to close-out all positions from early next week.
• On next week, trader may initiate long...

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Global Markets Analysis – 17 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

17.08.2017 周四 美盘豆油在60天均线位置将出现徘徊波动震荡

美黄豆连正在逐步靠近前低位置(6月23日),该位置从理论上讲,应该存在一定的技术支撑(因为前次凌厉的那波反弹就是从这价格开始的)。纽约原油昨日晚间中阴下跌,短线冲高之后的回落整理延续中(符合我们的预期)。美盘豆油12月合约,前2日期价下破60天均线的支撑,当前这个60天均线位置是一个关键技术位,后市期价将围绕这个点位多空厮杀争夺,因此上期价在该位置出现反复,希望大家也能够提前理解-----对后市来说,若该位置被证明支撑有效,将会是我们多单的“埋伏点位”,但截至到目前,我们仍不能排除期价的瞬间“毛刺”下破急跌现象的发生。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,短线追随美豆油的回落整理行情延续中,虽然盘面上有些许多头护盘,但短线回抽均线的进行工作还未结束(不够充分),我们继续保持下挫态势的整理观点。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨日周三盘中,马棕榈10月低开高走小阳K线报收,马盘多头护盘动作更为明显些。今天周四盘中十字星表现-----马棕榈油从盘面表现上来说-----存在一种“拒绝下跌的浪漫情怀”,这也是马盘棕榈油所特有独立特征。

小结:美国大豆丰产的阴影仍笼罩在期货市场(前几日美农业部的利空报告阴影),国内油脂商品短线又存在供大于求的不利局面,而马来西亚方面棕榈油产量开始进入旺季(8月---10月)。当前短线利空情绪的负面影响尚未完结。我们短线继续保持短空思维不变。 但又考虑到中国大陆进入秋季养殖业开始进入旺季,中国传统节日“中秋节”小包装豆油消费提前备货等等潜在利多情绪,未来的第三第四季度油脂商品将迎来“供销两旺”的局面,所以我们继续保持短空而长短的观点不变。具体操作上:短线空单谨慎持有,遇到盘中急跌有利时候,仍逢低空单减仓直至空单平仓完毕。而稳健型无仓单交易者继续场外观望,耐心等待止跌企稳的多单埋伏机会的到来。

[SUMMARY]
• With the overproduction on US soybean and China edible oils, we remain short-term short outlook.
• However, we may turn long outlook on China market as Mid-Autumn Festival is coming.
• Malaysian palm oil began to increase production in coming few months.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are still holding short position may close-out all positions when the prices are low.
• Uncommitted traders may seek opportunity to enter long positions when the prices are supported at low.

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Global Markets Analysis – 16 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

16.08.2017周三全球油脂类商品继续保持下挫态势

美国天气出现降雨,美盘大豆昨日晚间继续中阴K线下跌,当前美豆期价正逐步靠近前低(2017.6.23日,上次反弹的初始低点位置)。美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间更是长阴下挫,期价跌破下方60天均线的支撑。美盘油脂商品短线角度的下挫走势延续中,并且盘中开始出现下跌加速迹象(这是加速赶底的前兆)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日周二盘面阴K线表现,受昨日晚间美盘下跌影响,今日周三早盘期价小幅跳空低开低走,继续保持短线角度下挫态势,空单持仓者继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨日周二光头光脚的中阴K线下跌(下跌34令吉特 1.28%),在美盘大陆内盘油脂商品普遍走低影响下,马盘棕榈油今日仍将继续走低。

小结:美盘油脂商品前期的下挫态势延续中,大陆内盘油脂商品也脱离右侧横盘抵抗状态开始走低,相信马盘棕榈油的独立强势特征恐难维持,我们本波下挫重点任务还是前面提到的那2点-----1. 解套前期空单,空单逢低出场。2. 待回落整理结束信号出现时候多单埋伏。当前我们的首要任务还在第1焦点上。具体操作上:前期有剩余空单未出局的散户交易者,遇盘中加速急跌时候仍时刻准备逢低平仓了结。而手中无仓单的朋友,待下方止跌企稳时候做好逢低多单进场的时机把握(后话)。当前油脂类商品我们继续以短空的加速赶底状态对待。

[SUMMARY]
• As the downtrend of US edible oils continues, China edible oils is beginning to follow suit after breaking out of the sideway trend.
• It appears Malaysia palm oil is likely to track US and China edible oils.
• Our short-term short outlook remains.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are still holding short position may close-out all positions when the prices are low.
• Uncommitted trades may seek opportunity to enter long positions when the prices are supported at low.

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Global Markets Analysis – 15 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

15.08.2017周二胳膊未拧过大腿------马盘棕榈油不抵美盘豆油拖累冲高回落

美盘黄豆连下挫整理态势延续中,美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周一晚间以阴K线十字星期价下跌收盘,盘中期价曾一度触及下方60天均线附近,昨日的上下影线,表明多空主力对后市短线走势看法仍分歧较大,盘中争夺激烈。在未出现明显止跌技术信号前,我们已经短空思维对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,今天周二盘面阴K线表现,但整体期价波动幅度不大,更接近于往右侧横盘状态,内盘油脂上有压力,下有支撑的盘面特征比较明显,对于这种模糊的盘面短线走势,仍建议场外观望(短线鸡肋行情,做不做都没什么油水)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨日周一盘面期价曾一度红盘走高,但在下午盘面期价逐渐走弱,终盘是以带上影线的阴十字星K线收盘。今天周二早盘期价平开走低,随着今日马棕榈的期价走低-----前几日独立的强势特征被磨平,短线的“冲高回落”态势开始显现。

小结:美盘豆油回落整理走势延续中,与此同时,国际原油昨日晚间期价大跌(纽约原油昨晚下跌2.70%),二者均拖累了马盘棕榈油独立上涨的可能性(胳膊还是拧不过大腿),我们继续保持对油脂类商品短线的回落整理观点不变。具体操作上:内盘油脂商品无仓单交易者场外观望,马盘棕榈油未逢低平仓干净的剩余空单谨慎持有,后市短线我们继续以短空操作思维对待。

[SUMMARY]
• As the downward correction of US soybean oil market is in the progress and Crude oil tumbled on yesterday, Malaysian palm oil failed to trade higher.
• We continue to remain short-term short outlook on edible oils, which are having downward correction at the moment.

[ACTION]
• For China edible oils market, uncommitted traders may stay on the sidelines.
• For Malaysian palm oil market, traders who are still holding short positions may retain those positions in view of an ongoing downward of Malaysia palm oil.

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