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Global Markets Analysis – 26 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

26.04.2017 周三 美盘豆油昨日晚间十字星收盘

昨日周二晚间,美豆油7月合约以十字星K线报收,期价维持在31.80一线。短线上观察美豆油----期价继续在31.20---32.20窄区间内横盘震荡,仍未给出明确的方向指引,低位横盘波动震荡式的酝酿底部拐点行情延续。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,在本周一(4.24日)美豆油冲高回落的中阴K线之后(冲击上沿未果),见昨日周二晚间美豆油并未持续下跌,内盘昨日的恐慌情绪有所缓解,今天周三盘面上以小阳K线表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周二盘中的跳空低开令前三日的阳K线上涨终止,今天周三盘中十字星状态右侧横盘,马棕榈追随性波动较为明显。

小结:美盘豆油“脉冲式”期价上下波动,欲打破技术横盘状态,可惜当前基本面未给予有力支持,未出现像美黄豆连那种“对勾”式反弹(美豆油横盘状态)。考虑到当前基本面利空因素已经完全出尽,仅仅是利多因素还不明显,我们继续保持低位横盘酝酿拐点观点不变。另外,由于内盘菜籽油当前期价已经跌破成本区域,因此上我们不对内盘豆油棕榈油期价再盲目下看空间很大。操作上:继续多单持仓不动,同时密切关注美豆油的短线走势情况。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil continues to move in sideway range, with no clear sign of a rebound in sight.
• Considering the full extent of bearish factors but a lack of bullish factors, our outlook remains: seeking a low point.
• As China vegetable oils fall below breakeven point, we see a limited downside for China soybean oil and palm oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position while paying close attention to the short-term performance of US soybean oil.

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Global Markets Analysis – 25 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

25.04.2017 周二 内盘棕榈油遭遇空头主力进场打压期价

美盘黄豆连昨日周一晚间中阳反弹上涨,而美豆油7月冲高回落终盘以带上下影响的中阴K线下跌收盘----期价见高点32.55之后,仍未站稳32.20横盘的上沿之上。美豆油短线走势模糊(较为疲软)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,今天周二盘面上,豆油1709合约期价变化不大,尚在可接受范围内。而棕榈油1709合约却遭遇内盘空头主力进场主动打压期价(增仓下行),内盘棕榈油的长阴下跌(创新低),令内盘油脂商品短线走势出现分化。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周一盘面停盘,今天周二盘面受内盘不利走势影响,期价低开低走,“三颗红小兵”之后的小阴K线,令短线刚刚的反弹走势陷入模糊,我们多关注一下今日晚间美盘豆油的短线指引。

小结:油脂类商品短线一波三折,在昨日晚间美豆油未能站稳横盘震荡的上沿价格32.20之上后,今日内盘棕榈油空头主力刻意发力打压期价---令油脂类商品刚刚露出的“拐点反弹走势”的小苗头再度被扑灭,看来油脂类商品的上行压力还是依然较大,多空主力分歧较为严重。我们保持谨慎的观点对待,看看美盘豆油今日晚间的具体表现。具体操作上:前期多单持有,内盘棕榈油上要保持谨慎态度。(具体观察一下美豆油到底是突破上沿还是下沿?还是要延续区间横盘状态?然后再做决定。)

[SUMMARY]
• Edible oils face short-term turmoil, after US soybean oil hovered above 32.20 last night.
• Short interest exerts pressure on China palm oil, diminishing hope of a rebound.
• We pay close attention to the performance of US soybean oil with caution.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position, with high caution placed especially on China palm oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

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Bank of England Urges Flexibility in Financial Regulations

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 24 April 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing markets show sign of recovery while Treasury Secretary reassures a positive tax-reform is in the pipeline. France suffers another terrorist attack before Presidential election starts in May. U.K. begins to see gradual slowdown as BREXIT commences while central bank urges flexibility in suiting the economic changes.

The U.S. building permits rose 1.26 million in March and higher than revised 1.22 million in prior month. Another report on housing starts expanded 1.22 million and dipped to lowest in 4-month record.

According to weekly inventories, U.S. crude storage cut down by 1 million barrels on week ended 15 April and matched forecast. Weekly jobless claims were reported at 244,000 remains steady. Existing home sales rose 10-year high in March with 5.71 million growth.

Philadelphia manufacturing index grows at 22.0...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 24 April 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices have exhibited a reversal pattern in week-chart and likely to drawdown for correction this week. Range is target to recede lower at USD1250 /oz region in case of liquidation. Market has not seen profit-taking for last 3 weeks and might be commencing soon. However, beware of geo-political tension in DPR Korea that could spike the yellow metal as safe haven while bypassing above USD1285 /oz will climb higher to USD1310 /oz region.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have shown waning confidence in buying interest as the bulls have failed to clear above USD54 /barrel. As the consolidating range is still restricted from USD50 – USD54 /barrel, we are seeing a danger of demand that might probably slide out of the range and kick-off a new bearish sentiment in market. We...

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Global Markets Analysis – 21 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

21.04.2017 周五 美盘豆油期价又临近到横盘整理的区间上沿技术位置

美盘豆油7月合约,短线低位的横盘整理已经持续很久了(快一个月了),低位窄幅波动区间在31.20---32.20区间范围内,该横盘区间是迟早要被打破的。本周一中阳上攻不成功,而周二中阴下跌也未成立-----当前期价再度靠近区间整理的上沿位置,既然周二的下破未成立,我们继续期待上破的可能。

内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,昨日周四盘中小阳K线表现,在美盘豆油未能给出短线突破方向指引前,指望单独内盘油脂商品走强还不现实,只有美豆油能站上32.20以上价格(越远越好 ),内盘多头主力才会真正发力,继续关注美盘豆油的表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,在周三低位小阳十字星之后,昨日周四盘中跳空中阳上涨,今天周五盘面上又继续红盘表现,马棕榈期价短线出现走高欲望,我们继续保持下挫之后的低位技术拐点观点对待。

小结:美盘豆油面临横盘区间的短线角度的方向性突破------内盘马盘油脂商品在等待美豆油的短线方向指引,而我们继续以中线角度下挫之后的低位酝酿技术拐点观点不变。具体操作上:前期多单继续持仓不动,密切关注美盘豆油的后续表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean is anticipating for a short-term breakout of the sideway range, as China and Malaysia edible oils wait for a clear signal.
• We outlook remains: seeking a technical low point.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue holding long position and observe the performance of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service...

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Global Markets Analysis – 20 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

20.04.2017 周四 美豆油昨日晚间力挽狂澜阳线报收

美豆油7月合约,昨日周三晚间力挽狂澜以带下影线的阳K线上涨报收,终盘期价再度回归到横盘整理的区间内---未出现下破区间整理的下沿,短线走势仍在我们预期的范围内,我们继续对美豆油保持震荡整理的酝酿低位反弹“拐点”观点不变,在基本面严重利空消化吸收阶段的尾声,耐心等待做多人气的聚集。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,昨日内盘大宗商品中,由于股票市场上证指数大跌,以及工业品铜锌 化工品橡胶PTA黑色金属螺纹钢煤炭等商品出现走低影响,令内盘油脂商品出现大幅下跌------恰应了那句话“城门失火殃及池鱼”,令原本就已经非常疲弱的油脂商品出现了走低,在美盘豆油昨日晚间未下破横盘整理区间之后,今日油脂商品多头主力将夺回昨日失地。

马盘棕榈油基准7月,在昨日大连商品交易所豆油棕榈油期价走低影响下,昨日马盘棕榈油也出现期价跟随性下挫,短线的下探寻底走势幅度被夸张---今日马盘棕榈油恐将走强,我们继续保持短线下挫寻支撑观点不变。

小结:昨日内盘马盘油脂商品出现杀跌行情,盘中跌幅较大。好在美盘豆油未在短线走势上给予内盘马盘支持------美豆油7月合约昨日晚间的中阳上涨,令期价再度回到横盘整理区间,我们继续保持低位酝酿反弹拐点的观点不变。具体操作上:前期多单继续持有,耐心等待美盘豆油突破横盘上沿的时刻出现。

[SUMMARY]
• China and Malaysia edible oils fell yesterday, but were supported by US soybean oil.
• US soybean oil July contract inched up last night, effectively prolonging the sideways movement.
• Our outlook remains: waiting for a rebound at lower prices.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position, as we wait for US soybean oil to break out of the sideway range.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

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Global Markets Analysis – 19 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

19.04.2017 周三 美盘豆油横盘区间波动延续 内盘 马盘油脂则下探疲软寻支撑

美盘豆油7月合约,本周一中阳上涨之后,昨日晚间周二盘面又中阴下挫,未能错列2阳突破横盘区间上沿。今天周三亚洲电子盘期价小阴表现,期价仍处于横盘区间内,美豆油短线的波动震荡延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,在美豆油未能提供突破上沿方向指引后,今天豆油上空头主力再度增仓打压期价,而棕榈油上则为减仓下行,部分多头主力信心丧失而资金出逃。考虑到美豆油仍在横盘的区间范围内,我们暂且不建议盲目操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,由于对棕榈油产量增加担忧,昨日周二盘面上,空头主力进场打压期价,终盘中阴下挫。今日周三盘面受内盘期价下挫影响,期价跳空低开十字星表现。马棕榈油探底过程延续中。

小结:美盘豆油未能给出突破横盘区间上沿的方向指引,令内盘马盘多头主力失去耐心,恐慌之下期价再度下挫。考虑到中线回落调整已经处于超卖状态的尾声阶段,而基本面情况又缺少利好情况支持,当前短线走势表现的较为疲软也就不难理解了,由于美豆油依然在横盘状态(美豆油反弹无力而下挫空间也不会很大)------我们对内盘马盘 继续保持下探寻底观点不变,仍不建议盲目操作,多单继续以静制动持仓不动,关注美豆油的横盘区间下沿的支撑力度。

[SUMMARY]
• As US soybean continues to move sideways, long interest on China and Malaysia edible oils lose momentum.
• Overselling condition and bearish fundamentals are contributing to the short-term decline.
• With US soybean expected to continue its sideways movement, our outlook remains: seeking a low point for China and Malaysia edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position while paying attention to the strength of the support of US soybean oil.

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Global Markets Analysis – 18 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

18.04.2017 周二 美盘豆油昨日晚间中阳上涨 继续观察今日晚间的动向

昨日周一晚间,美盘豆油7月合约中阴K线红盘上涨,期价靠近横盘整理小区间的上沿位置,由于未突破该位置(上沿),尚不能给予内盘马盘油脂商品多头主力坚定的信心---我们继续关注后市是否出现错列的2根阳K线出现,并且突破横盘震荡的高点之上。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,昨日美盘豆油的中阳K线未完全带动起内盘多头主力的积极性(美盘豆油只上涨到区间上沿高点位置,并未完全突破过去),内盘油脂商品还处于横盘波动震荡的区间内,虽早盘期价略有走高,但午后期价再度下挫。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,由于对马来西亚棕榈油产量增加的担忧,马棕榈期价下挫迹象明显,在接连几日的阴K线表现,好在期价下挫的幅度并不是很深,属于抵抗性波动震荡探底。

小结:美盘豆油未走出明显的上扬态势----至少还缺一根阳K线来突破低位横盘波段状态的上沿位置,因此上对马盘内盘油脂商品的带动作用还不是很明显(内盘油脂还是区间横盘波动),今天美盘豆油电子盘的走弱,拖累了内盘马盘油脂商品的表现-----我们继续关注美盘豆油的后续表现。操作上:保持原观点不变,前期多单继续持有。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean is yet to show a clear uptrend, limiting the impact it has on Malaysia and China edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years...

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Global Markets Analysis – 17 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

17.04.2017 周一 油脂类商品多单持有

今天周一亚洲电子盘,美黄豆连跳空高开,短线反弹上扬走势更为明显。在当前基本面南美大豆丰产后产量上调与美国大豆播种面积增加不利情况下,当前期价已经在“包涵”了基本面情况,市场投资人士也都吸收消化认可了该基本面。也就是说最恶略的情况已经在价格里得到体现-----后市“天气炒作”若出现个风吹草动,则期价上扬的概率大增(下挫无空间 )。美盘豆油5月合约,在美豆出现低位拐点苗头后,虽豆油期价反弹走势不明显,但我们以及不下看很多,继续保持中线回落整理后的短线探底观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,今天周一早盘红盘上涨表现,由于缺少美盘豆油的指引(4.14假期停盘 今天晚间才开盘),在下午时段期价出现下挫,全天整体呈波动震荡状态,期价波动不大。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月(或6月),今天周一早盘期价跳空高开,上周五的短线急挫被遏制,虽然短线反弹走势尚不明确,但我们已经保持超卖之后的下探寻拐点观点不变。

小结:内盘马盘油脂商品今天周一盘面期价波动不大,呈现小幅波动震荡状态,均在等待美盘豆油的具体方向指引,我们继续保持下探寻支撑拐点的观点不变。操作上:前期多单低位新进多单均继续持有,等待美盘豆油开盘后的进一步表现。

[SUMMARY]
• Movement of China and Malaysia edible oils is mild on Monday, awaiting clearer signals from US soybean.

[ACTION]
• Traders may enter maintain or new long position, as we await US soybean oil to resume trading.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became...

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