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Pound Surges Upon Successful BREXIT Negotiation

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 11 December 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. adds more jobs into economy and rate hike is expected to follow through next week. China maintains strong growth in services and trade. Britain succeeds in first round of negotiation in BREXIT and spike Pound.

The U.S. factory orders contracted 0.1 percent in October after revised 1.7 percent in previous month. Weekly claims ended on 2 December reported at 236,000 and matched forecast. Institute of Supply Management reports the services index grew 57.4 in November and lower from 60.1 in October.

On Friday, the Labor Department reported the economy has added 228,000 jobs in November and higher than forecast, after the October was revised to 244,000. Average hourly earnings of Americans rose 0.2 percent from minus 0.1 percent in prior month. The unemployment rate stays at 4.1...

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Global Markets Analysis – 15 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

15.12.2017周五 昨日晚间美盘豆油暂时在上升趋势线技术位置暂时受到支撑

美盘豆油3月合约(1月),昨日周四晚间阴阳十字星表现,期价在下方的上升趋势线位置暂时受到技术支撑--1月支撑位置在33.00整数关,3月合约支撑位置在32.20位置。 美豆油正在积极测试该位置的有效性,我们继续给予关注。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约(1801),今天周五豆油表现依旧较弱,盘面空头主力仍占据有利地形,多头主力显得毫无章法 ,反击力。 内盘棕榈油在马盘棕榈油红盘带动下,今天周五盘面强于豆油。

马来西亚政府最新消息,把棕榈油出口关税在2018年1月份调低至5.5%,此前12月份的出口关税为6%。 马盘棕榈油基准2月,在昨日低开高走的阳K线十字星红盘表现之后,今天周五盘面期价又继续红盘上涨, 马棕榈油在连续8连阴超跌之后, 略有止跌表现。

小结:美盘豆油继续对关键位置的技术支撑效力进行测试考验,该位置非常重要--一旦期价支撑有效,则第二次下探测试完成之后就会出现发力反弹。 若第二次下探测试支撑无效, 则会出现“再下一个台阶”的短线疲软走势。 在美豆油这第二次下探未下破趋势线之前,我们前期多单暂时谨慎持有, 密切关注今日晚间以及下周初美盘豆油的具体表现。

[SUMMARY]
• We may pay close attention to the movement of US soybean oils, it is going to testing the technical support uptrend line for a second time.
• The downtrend is expected to continue if the market failed to be supported.

[ACTION]
• Before US soybean oil test the support uptrend line for a second time, traders may retain long positions with cautions and pay close attention to the movement of US soybean...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 11 December 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been supported at USD56 /barrel last week but also traded in narrow range. Topside resistance emerges at USD59 /barrel and unable to pierce above USD60 /barrel. Moving over to the new year, traders forecast the possibility to push oil prices higher could be an eruption of warfare or the recession of Dollar Index. This week, we foresee the range to be no change from USD56 – USD59 /barrel until some abrupt fundamental changes occur in market.

Gold

Gold prices fell almost USD40 last week and reached USD1243 /oz bottom on Friday. The rising U.S. payroll has not lifted yellow metal as Dollar strengthens. This week, we reckon the trend will bounce and make recovery from USD1240 – USD1270 /oz in slow liquidity. In addition, the precious metals...

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Global Markets Analysis – 14 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

14.12.2017周四油脂类商品短线走势“诡异”

美盘豆油1月合约(或3月),昨日周三晚间中阴下跌收盘,周一周二的小强势再度被毁灭,下影线位置再度临近原来的上升趋势线“支撑”位置,今天亚洲电子盘面期价又继续阴K线测试该支撑位置的有效性,多空双方对后市看法的分歧性造成美盘豆油走势上出现诡异,这给内盘 马盘油脂商品今天走势再度带来强大的心理压力, 我们密切关注今日晚间美盘豆油的走势。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1805(1801)主力合约, 在美盘反复测试“关键技术性”位置的拐点时候, 内盘空头主力今日抓住机会再度发力打压期价,多头主力今日争夺信心崩溃,空头占据上风, 终盘以长阴K线下跌收盘。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,今天周四早盘期价跳空低开,日内期价追随内盘弱势盘面走低,但跌幅稍小于内盘,今天马盘棕榈油市场也出现一定的恐慌情绪。

小结:美盘豆油再度出现测试下方上升趋势线的支撑效力走势,这种激进的走势令内盘 马盘多头主力产生恐慌,今天市场空头主力占据上风,让我们关注一下美盘豆油今日晚间的具体表现-----暂时不要跟随性恐慌。 操作上: 被套多单小心谨慎持有, 密切关注美盘豆油今日晚间在“支撑位置”的具体表现,不下破趋势线之前依旧持仓不动。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oils slipped to testing the uptrend support line again, causing the buying interest in China and Malaysia market became lower.
• Traders may pay close attention to the movement of US soybean oil, which is moving downward as the selling pressure increases.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions with cautions and pay close attention to the movement of US soybean oils which may be supported by uptrend line tonight.

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Global Markets Analysis – 13 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

13.12.2017周三美国农业部公布12月份供需报告

美国时间12月12日周二(北京时间12月13日凌晨1点45分),美国农业部公布了12月供需报告(2017年终报告)。美国2017/18年度大豆期末库存预估为4.45亿蒲式耳,11月份预估值为4.25亿蒲式耳。美国2017/18年度美国大豆收割面积预估为8950万英亩,11月份预估值为8950万英亩。美国2017/18年度大豆单产为49.5蒲式耳/英亩,11月份预估值为49.5蒲式耳/英亩。美国2017/18年度大豆总产量预估为44.25亿蒲式耳,11月份预估值为44.25亿蒲式耳-------从报告内容显示,收割面积单产总产量均保持不变,年末库存略有上调(报告呈中性)。此前市场分析人士普遍对本次报告带利空悲观情绪预期(恐上调巴西大豆产量,以及对阿根廷天气担忧情绪缓解)。美盘豆油1月合约,在北京时间凌晨1点45分,期价红盘上涨,一改此前阴K线表现。截止到当前(凌晨3点),美盘豆油中阳K线红盘表现------美豆油“两阳夹一阴”K线组合,我们继续短多观点看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约(或1801),昨日周二盘面小阳K线上涨表现,期价止跌企稳后右侧横盘,下方下跌空间收窄,今日周三继续短多观点对待。

马来西亚棕榈油局12月12日发布公告,11月末马来西亚棕榈油期末库存环比上升16%至两年来高位256万吨,当月出口下降11.9%至135万吨,11月份产量下降3.3%至194万吨。从报告分析:马来西亚棕榈油库存上升,而棕榈油出口下滑(这也是此前马盘棕榈油持续超跌的主要原因所在),但市场分析人士考虑到马来西亚棕榈油产量也出现下降,部分人士视为利多消息“表明马来西亚棕榈油的产量高峰期已经过去”。对于今天马盘毛棕榈油基准2月来说,利空情绪出尽,恐今天周三开盘期价会出现一定程度上涨。

小结:美盘豆油低位拐点之后的反弹上行走势延续中,两阳夹一阴K线组合的出现,表明后市短线仍存在反弹动能,我们继续短多观点对待,内盘马盘油脂商品多头主力做多信心将被提振。具体操作上:前期多单继续持有。

[SUMMARY]
• Rebound of US soybean oil extends, as indicated by technical signals.
• Long interest on China and Malaysia edible oil may be boosted.
• We maintain a short-term long outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years...

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Global Markets Analysis – 12 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

12.12.2017周二油脂类商品前期短线多单继续持有

美盘豆油1月合约,上周四12月7日期价受到下方上升趋势线的有效支撑止跌企稳,昨日周一晚间小阴K线表现--当前美豆油处境非常尴尬,下方有上升趋势线的支撑,上方有层层空头排列的均线压制, 期价在左右为难中进行超跌之后的修复动作,我们暂时以弱势的短线反弹观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约(或1801),今天周二早盘红盘上涨,空头主力的杀跌动能损耗殆尽,今天中阳K线的表现--盘中期价出现止跌企稳“雏形”, 多头主力信心略有显露, 我们短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日周一盘面中阴K线下跌表现,期价创出近期新低。 今天周二早盘受美盘 内盘油脂商品上涨提振下,期价早盘跳空高开高走--不排除昨日的疯狂下挫是主力“挖了一个坑”的空头陷阱,我们不被主力忽悠,继续以超跌之后的反弹观点对待。

小结:美盘豆油反身上行走势雏形显现,内盘油脂商品多头主力信心有所恢复, 这种利多情绪间接传导到马盘棕榈油上,对油脂商品来说,我们继续保持低位拐点的观点不变, 操作上:前期被套多单继续持有,同时密切关注美盘豆油后续的发力情况。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil rebounded obviously and continued to move upward.
• The buying interest in China edible oils increases, causing Malaysian palm oil went up indirectly.
• Our long outlook remains as the market is expected to rebound.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue to retain long positions and pay close attention to the movement of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

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Global Markets Analysis – 8 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

08.12.2017周五美盘豆油第21个交易日出现长下影线 内盘马盘多单继续持有

美盘豆油1月合约,昨日周四晚间期价曾一度下挫,尾盘时候期价受买盘支撑走高,终盘以带长下影线的阳K线收盘--我们密切关注该K线是否是探底成功的信号(早晨之星),关注今日晚间美豆油的具体表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约(或1801),昨日周四盘中,期价杀跌能量涌现,期价下跌幅度较大,市场恐慌盘涌出--我们昨日曾建议,日内临时短空操作一下,弥补一下前期试盘多单的损失。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日未开盘前,我们就提醒散户朋友,谨防美盘 内盘油脂商品大幅走低而间接带来伤害,也建议日内短空操作,并且建议短暂空单日内平仓了结。

小结: 昨日全球油脂类商品出现一波杀跌动能,我们建议散户朋友日内短空操作一下,以弥补一下前期多单的损失,并且建议空单日内见好就收,不持仓过夜。 今天周五盘面,美盘带下影线阳K线收盘,内盘马盘油脂类商品期价低开高走红盘表现(我们昨日建议日内一定要空单平仓就是为防止该现象的出现)。从今天周五盘面观察--油脂商品期价经过快速杀跌之后,杀跌动能得到有效释放,期价略有走稳,前期多单继续持有。 同时关注美盘豆油今日晚间(下周初)能否反身走强。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils had been prevented to drop yesterday, moreover, we recommended traders to initiate short positions for intraday trading to reduce some losses on previous long positions.
• On Friday, US market closed higher and China and Malaysia edible oils opened lower and settled higher.
• After global edible oils were prevented to drop, the market steadied and moved higher.
• Traders may pay close attention to the movement of US soybean oil tonight.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue to retain long positions as the market have...

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Global Markets Analysis – 7 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

07.12.2017周四短线角度多单被套日内短空操作弥补一下损失

美盘豆油1月合约,昨日周三晚间依旧中阴下跌,短线回落整理走势仍未出现止跌信号,今天亚洲电子盘继续阴K线表现,这恐将拖累内盘 马盘,打击多头主力的信心。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,今天周四盘面多头信心受挫,空头主力趁机进场打压期价,盘面恐慌情绪再现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,在美盘 内盘油脂商品恐慌性下跌情绪影响下,马盘棕榈油今日期价仍有走低可能性。

小结:美盘油脂类商品下挫走势明显,这恐将拖累内盘 马盘期价走低,我们前几日短线多单被套,为弥补一下伤害,今日早盘建议:日内可适量逢高短空操作一下,获利后的空单日内平仓了结,暂时弥补一下损失。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil went down obviously, it might be causing China and Malaysia market continue to move downward.
• Traders are recommended to do an intraday trading for paring down some losses on previous long positions.

[ACTION]
• Traders may initiate short positions when prices are high and take profits for reducing some losses on previous long positions by day-end.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

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Global Markets Analysis – 6 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

06.12.2017周三美盘豆油震荡下探内盘马盘抵抗性追随

美盘豆油1月合约,昨日周二晚间小阴K线下跌,虽然有一点下影线,但下影线的长度不够(下方多头买盘不积极),表明美盘豆油仍在下挫整理中。 美盘大豆昨日晚间却是中阳上涨(继续在1000美分以上运行),美盘油脂商品本身出现短线走势分化,这令我们在报告研判上出现难度。一上一下中, 我们建议用“平均”眼光看待,既不盲目乐观看涨,也不悲观情绪看跌, 耐心等待同步化。

大陆内盘油脂商品中,内盘豆粕1805主力合约近两日长阳飙涨,上攻走势明显。 但豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约昨日周二盘中,阴K线下跌走势,不排除部分市场主力存在多粕空油的跨品种套利操作行为。今天周三盘面,内盘油脂在昨日阴K线右侧小阳K线表现--多头轻微的抵抗动作延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日阴K线带下影,今天十字星波动--马盘毛棕榈油也出现一定多头抵抗动作,虽然动作不是很大,但我们也不再盲目看低多少。

小结:美盘豆油依然震荡性下挫走势,虽然跌幅不是很大,但是连续的阴K线却完全影响到了内盘 马盘油脂类商品上多头主力的做多热情,在美豆油不出现强烈反攻前,内盘 马盘油脂商品恐将仍延续抵抗性的追随动作, 我们操作上以不变应万变--继续多单持有,冷眼旁观美盘豆油的表现,当前油脂类商品下方空间有限,没必要过于担忧, 耐心等待市场新的变化。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil continued to move downward with the change is not large, but it already affected China and Malaysia edible oils to move downward.
• If US soybean oil still continue to move southward, China and Malaysia edible oils might be tracking on the weakness of US soybean oils.
• We remain our long outlook as the downtrend distance for current edible oils is limited.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions and pay close attention to the movement of...

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