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Monthly Archives: January, 2018

UK Grows in GDP in Q4 Seasons

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 29 January 2018 Fundamental Outlook The U.S. lowers in home market but increases in order for durable goods. Japan remains unchanged in monetary policy. U.K. net borrowings in public sector reduces while GDP grows. The U.S. existing home sales grew 5.57 million in December and lower than revised 5.78 million in previous month. New home sales increased by 625,000 and lower than November 689,000. Weekly claims for jobless benefits rose to 233,000 in the week ended 20 January against revised 216,000 in prior week. The U.S. order for durable goods grew 2.9 percent in January and best record in past 6 months. Excluding transport equipment and auto sales, core durable goods expanded 0.6 percent. Another report on GDP rose 2.6 percent in Q4 seasons and below forecast. President Trump imposes 30 percent import tax on all solar cell and […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 Jan 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices climbed above USD65 /barrel last week after the OPEC leaders emphasized on supply cut through year-end in conjunction with Dollar fall. Market closed at 5-year high record at USD66 /barrel region on Friday. This week, the trend will remain tricky as traders watch Dollar direction as clue to gauge commodity prices. The market may ascend higher to USD69 /barrel before profit-taking occurs, or else might fall back to USD62 /barrel if Dollar recovers. Gold Gold prices spiked above USD1360 /oz at 4-month high and declined to at USD1349 /oz for weekend close. We foresee the trend could be strongly resisted at USD1360 /oz this week and begin to make correction. We expect the range to be prone southward with support rising at USD1325 /oz level. Dollar will remain as market catalyst to metal commodity in […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 30 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 30.01.2018周二内盘油脂商品短线反弹上行之路“一波三折” 美盘豆油3月合约,在两阳夹一阴冲天炮K线组合出现后,昨日周一晚间美豆油并未出现发力上涨动作,期价仅仅十字星表现,今天美豆油亚洲电子盘又阴K线下跌,这令内盘马盘油脂商品出现一定失望情绪,但整体来说—-美豆油短线反弹走势并未完全走坏。 近日,中国大陆本月的国储菜籽油抛售正在如火如荼的进行中,每周一次本月已经抛售了4次,大约21万吨菜油流向市场,从侧面增加了国内油脂商品的总供给量,这对豆油棕榈油带来一定市场冲击,从一定程度上影响了豆油 棕榈油年前的上涨势头。内盘豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,今天周二盘面出现异动——期价早盘高开低走,盘中中长阴K线下跌走势,盘中空头主力增仓阻击令期价走软,盘中一波三折走势较为明显。 马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,昨日周一盘面中阳K线上涨刚刚收复上周末的失地,今天受大陆内盘油脂期价走软影响,早盘再度低开 ,上午盘面围绕2500整数关一线徘徊,受内盘拖累严重。 小结:大陆内盘油脂商品今天期价突然中长阴K线下跌,盘中空头主力刻意打压猛烈,期价下跌幅度较深,间接影响到马盘棕榈油延续昨日的继续拔高,考虑到美盘豆油尚未完全破坏短线反弹走势,仅仅是在日K线图表上空头排列的均线系统受到压制,这间接提醒我们——本波反弹是在弱势行情下的“弱势反弹”,提醒我们在情绪上需要更谨慎些。操作上:前期多单暂时谨慎持有,关注反弹上行过程中短暂停顿下挫时候盘面上抵抗力量强弱程度大小,暂持仓不动。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil plummeted during the opening, failed to resume previous rally. • Based on the MACD indicator, uptrend is being pressured and possibilities of short term reversal is still possible. • Traders should be cautious about bullish reversal pattern. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current position. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 26.01.2018周五全球外汇市场异常波动对油脂商品市场影响严重 美盘豆油3月合约,在连续2根阳K线上涨之后,昨日周四晚间阴K线下跌,今天周五亚洲电子盘截止目前阳K线表现—–2阳夹一阴走势还在持续中,不必过度担忧昨日的阴K线表现,继续短多观点对待。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,昨日内盘油脂商品小阴K线小幅整理,在三天阳K线上涨之后,出现该动作为正常现象,短线走势基本符合我们心理预期。今天周五上午盘面,内盘油脂期价继续低开高走中阳K线红盘上涨表现,并且今天的阳K线已经收复昨日的失地,我们继续保持短多观点不变。 马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,昨日期价也下挫整理走势—–但马盘毛棕榈油昨日表现略显“夸张”,原本预期的小阴K线,却在下午收盘前的最后10分钟,期价猛烈下挫,因此形成了中阴K线下跌走势,这主要是受马币令吉特汇率市场异常波动造成的—–马币令吉特近期持续坚挺,昨日兑美元上扬0.7%至3.8840,这对马来西亚棕榈油出口竞争力来说可是个严重的利空消息。 小结:美元指数从去年初(2017.1月初)至2018年1月底的现在,就持续保持下挫走势,并且在昨日周四晚间见新低88.429,这是4年来的低点位置,这波连续13个月的下跌走势,对全球油脂商品价格带来严重影响——贵金属黄金,有色金属铜锌国际原油,外汇市场中欧元兑美元,英镑兑美元均有不同程度的上涨。但对农作物油脂商品来说,却没有丝毫上涨提振作用(农产品不带有金融属性,也不带有金属属性,美元对其影响相对最小),反而马币令吉特的相对走强,令马棕榈期价出现走低。考虑到美元指数13个月下挫之后,下方的回落空间已经逐步变窄,后市短线存在技术反弹要求。对油脂商品来说,当前的短线反弹动能仍未衰竭(仅仅是马盘棕榈油昨日下挫幅度稍大了些),我们继续短多观点对待。操作上:新老多单继续持有,密切关注下周美盘豆油的走势。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil continues to rally on the back of rising futures prices on China and Malaysia edible oils. • Given the emergence of a minor correction, our short-term long outlook remains. • We shall turn our focus to the height of the reversal. [ACTION] • Traders may hold or initiate long position. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 25 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 25.01.2018周四“三连阳”过后油脂商品短线出现小幅整理 美盘豆油3月合约,本周二周三2连阳期价红盘上涨,今天周四亚洲电子盘又继续红盘上涨表现——美豆油短线下破前低之后的“反身上行”走势逐步清晰起来,我们继续以超跌之后的短线短多观点对待。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,从本周一开始,内盘油脂商品就出现“反身”迹象,在周一阳K线时候我们按兵未动,周二时候建议激进型交易者少量多单进场,昨日周三时候我们让稳健型交易者进场,三天的阳K线上涨,内盘油脂短线反弹走势出现苗头,今天周四盘面期价小幅阴K线整理,这属于正常现象。 马盘毛棕榈油基准4月(或3月),本周前3个交易日也是阳K线上涨表现,连续的3天上涨,短线分时图出现一定的超买迹象,今天周四盘面出现阴K线小幅整理也非常合理(一波段的反弹上行或者下挫整理永远都不会全部是阳K线或者全部阴K线,期间肯定夹杂相反K线),这是正常市场表现,我们只要关注小幅整理的K线不吞没前面的阳K线,那就继续短多观点对待。 小结:美盘豆油追随内盘马盘油脂商品期价走高,并且短线走强态势仍延续中。内盘马盘油脂商品更早一天领先美盘反弹上涨,三连阳过后出现期价小幅整理,我们不予理会,继续短多观点对待。操作上:本周新进补仓多单与前期老多单继续持有,后市目光焦点我们会逐步转移到上方反弹高度上来。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil continues to rally on the back of rising futures prices on China and Malaysia edible oils. • Given the emergence of a minor correction, our short-term long outlook remains. • We shall turn our focus to the height of the reversal. [ACTION] • Traders may hold or initiate long position. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 23.01.2018周二内盘马盘油脂商品昨日中阳之后今日期价小幅整理调整节奏 美盘豆油3月合约昨日周一晚间阴K线收盘,并未支持昨日内盘马盘昨日白天的中阳K线红盘上涨走势。对美盘豆油来说,当前疲软的现货市场的消极影响还间接的影响着期货市场,期货市场萎靡疲弱的走势尚不能一下扭转过来,并且,美豆油3月前低已经技术下破,下方新的技术支撑点还在寻找中,但具体到那个点位?这个不好回答。我们目前只能回答的是—-下方短线的回落空间正在一步步被压缩,让我们耐心等待“金针探底”或者长阳扭转时刻的到来。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,昨日周一盘面中阳K线上涨表现,并且中阳K线已经吞没了上周五的阴K线,短线走势已经出现反身走强迹象(特别是内盘豆油),今天周二盘面期价小幅整理,在等待美盘豆油走势的支持。 马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,在期价靠近前低位置时候,昨日周一早盘期价跳空高开高走,终盘阳K线上涨收盘。今天周二盘面,期价在昨日阳K线右侧小幅停顿整理,马盘棕榈油也出现些许止跌企稳苗头。 小结:美盘豆油尚未出现止跌企稳信号,内盘马盘油脂商品却出现一定的止跌苗头——虽然尚不能确认昨天周一的走势“反身上涨”就此开始(我们昨天已经提到过这个话题),但短线盘面的护盘动作还是存在一定能量,我们继续保持此前观点—–不破前低,早先多单不止损操作,后市短线下挫调整结束之后,仍有一波反弹上行机会,我们现在等待的就是美盘豆油何时能支持内盘马盘,以及我们低位补仓多单何时再进场?其实若按照内盘豆油来说——短线激进型散户朋友是可以补仓一点多单的,但稳健型交易者暂缓一下,再多观察一下美盘豆油的具体表现再动手也不会太迟。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean has yet to its any signal of a stop to its decline. • The decline of China and Malaysia edible oils appears to be disrupted. • Our outlook remains: we shall not stop losses until the previous low is breached. • We are anticipating a rebound following the downward correction. [ACTION] • Aggressive short-term traders may add long positions. • Defensive traders may stay put at the moment. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 22 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 22.01.2018周一内盘马盘油脂商品今天周一盘面略有走强 美盘黄豆连短线走势与我们判断的一样,短线保持震荡上扬态势。美盘豆油3月合约,期价跌破去年12月底的前低后,期价惯性下挫,今天亚洲电子早盘红十字星表现,期价是否下挫企稳仍有待我们继续观察—–但这种“底背离”式下探,下方的空间正在逐步被压缩收窄。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,今天周一早盘期价低开高走,中阳K线上涨表现,特别是内盘豆油1805合约,今天周一的阳K线已经吞没上周五的阴K线,期价略微出现止跌企稳苗头。 马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,上周五期价下跌已经非常靠近12月22日的前低位置(我们心中的底线位置),今天周一早盘期价高开高走阳K线表现,虽然尚不能表明短线下挫走势已经结束,但多少担忧情绪被略微化解,密切关注上周五跳空低开的小阴K线是否是“空头陷阱”?是否演变成“早晨之星”的可能,尚待周二周三短线走势的确认指引。 小结:在美盘豆油“喋喋不休”的下挫过程中,内盘马盘已经厌倦了该走势指引。今天周一早盘,内盘马盘油脂商品在前低附近出现一定的多头护盘动作,今天马盘内盘油脂商品的短线走强—–是否是低位“拐点”再次展开?关于这点尚待随后2天的市场验证,我们在第一根阳K线出现时候,尚不能100%做出明确判断,并且今天周一的多头护盘动作是否能真正成功?这点我们也不能完全确认,我们只能说,在前次低点位置期价出现一定的支撑力度—-毕竟前次低点时候,期价就是从这个位置开始反弹上行的,相信空头主力也看到了这点。具体操作上:前期低位左右多单继续少量持有,后市能否转势走强仍需继续盘中关注,届时我们再建议多单补仓,此时此刻该操作还为时过早一些。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil continues its decline, as China and Malaysia move indecisively. [ACTION] • Traders may retain long positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email  DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 Jan 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices have been trading mainly in small range from USD63 – USD64 /barrel amid resilient sentiment. Range has failed to pierce above USD65 /barrel while Dollar Index might have floored at 90.00 benchmark. This week, we predict the support will emerge at USD61 /barrel with topside resistance remaining unbreakable at USD65 /barrel. Range movement is expected with mixed sentiment. Gold Gold prices have been seen resisted at USD1345 /oz last week as market slowed down in advancement. This week, we forecast the trend will move into a small correction as support emerges at USD1310 /oz level. Range is expected to be contained from USD1310 – USD1350 /oz without high expectation of breaking beyond this region. Silver Silver prices met resistance at USD17.40 /oz as we predicted. The trend is gradually moving into correction and may trade […]

American Government May Face Partial Shutdown

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 22 January 2018 Fundamental Outlook The U.S. jobless claims fall to 45-year low. American Government may face partial shutdown in operation if an impasse is not approved in Senate Congress for a new funding bill. China stays in good growth rate on national economy. Britain retail price index on overall consumers’ sentiment rises to 6-year high. The U.S. jobless claims dropped to 220,000 in the week ended 13 January, at 45-year low record. Building permits stayed strong in January at 1.30 million while housing starts fell to 1.19 million and lower than December. The U.S. Government faces risk of partial shutdown if the lawmakers fail to pass a bill for funding the civil services through 16 February. House has approved a funding bill but has not passed through the Senate, before representing onto President’s table for signing into law. […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 19 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 19.01.2018周五全球油脂类商品需求疲软期货市场期价短线下挫走势延续中 美黄豆连短线期价震荡上扬,美盘豆油3月合约期价下破前低之后,惯性加速状态更加明显,二者一上一下的“分道扬镳”走势令当前美盘油脂商品出现怪异走势(永远记住2017年与2018年这个交汇时刻的走势已经误导了我们2次了)。单从美盘豆油3月来说—–当前期价下破前低后,而多项技术指标却拒绝走低,我们昨天提到的三个字“底背离”迹象出现苗头(通常意义上讲,底背离走势往往是酝酿更大级别的波段行情前兆),不排除此波下挫之后,期价存在猛烈反弹走势的可能(当然此话目前来说还为时过早)。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,期价保持追随性下挫走势,当前内盘基本面情况远没有美盘马盘基本面那么糟糕,但由于美盘马盘断崖式下跌,内盘油脂也只好抵抗性下挫,并且棕榈油下挫幅度大于豆油,全球目光均聚焦到中国消费大国——中国春节假期节日效应的刚性需求何时能在市场体现,从而拉动消费层面的关注度,提振全球油脂商品信息。内盘油脂商品确实处于一个尴尬境界。据国家统计总局昨日1月18日公布的2017年度国内生产总值(GDP)数字怒破80万亿达到82万亿,全年增速达到6.9%个百分点,整体形势好于预期,保持在中高速增长,该成绩单较为亮眼 全球瞩目。 马来西亚方面的基本面情况越来越清晰——2017年12月底的棕榈油库存为273.2万吨,该数字是18年以来所有年底库存最高的数字,而马币令吉特的走强,也是18个月来汇率最高的时候(这对海外买家购买马来西亚棕榈油,价格上就显得更加昂贵),马政府此前曾出台为期3个月的棕榈油出口关税减免,但这一短暂利好消息在如此多的利空消息面前就显得微不足道了,与此同时,欧盟方面又支撑 减少棕榈油进口,一系列的落井下石基本面是当前马盘棕榈油期价下挫走软的主要原因。马盘棕榈油基准3月,最近几日期价“直线断崖式下坠”,期价下挫幅度加大,空头主力毫无忌惮的刻意打压,今天的跳空低开已经令期价临近前低位置——也就是我们前期低位拐点多单持仓的“底线红线”位置—–几天前我们曾提到一句话 “低位多单减仓到无论市场如何变化而不 心惊地步,就是合理的个人持仓数量”,真是担心什么就发生什么,这期价真的触及我们心中的红线位置了,再平稳的心态也难免出现内心些许波澜。 小结:美国马来西亚当前疲软的基本面出口数据,令油脂类商品短线走势出现波段性下挫走势,美盘豆油期价率先提前下破前低,马盘内盘油脂商品正在逐步靠近前低,这种局面虽然我们此前已经有所防备,但内心深处还是让散户朋友“不寒而栗”。其实我个人更关心的问题是—-美豆油下破前低之后,市场会如何演绎?下挫多深才出现支撑位?底背离走势又允许它能下探多深?下探结束后未来行情该如何发展?确实是令人头疼的问题——不过我个人潜意识里还是不认为下破之后会继续下探很多,一直有种“强弩之末”的感觉。还是先关注短线操作吧。具体操作上:内盘马盘前期低位剩余的少量多单暂时持有,内盘马盘不破前低多单不止损,下破之后我们再技术性平多翻空。 [SUMMARY] • Bearish fundamental data is driving US and Malaysia edible oils lower. • US soybean oil has touched its previous low, while China and Malaysia edible oils are approaching theirs. [ACTION] • Traders may retain long positions on China and Malaysia edible oils. • Should China and Malaysia fall past their previous lows, we consider going short. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and […]

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