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Monthly Archives: February, 2018

Global Vegoils Analysis – 28 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.2.28日周三内盘马盘略强美盘豆油稍弱 美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周二晚间中阴K线下跌,率先出现更小周期的回落整理走势,期价暂时在40天均线处出现整理,以下挫回落态势积蓄上攻60天均线能量,昨日单根的阴K线尚不能表明短线反弹走势结束(在我们预料中),继续短多观点对待。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,昨日周二仅豆油1805小阴K线稍微回落,棕榈油1805盘中小挫盘终又走强。今天周三盘面再度红盘走强,盘面显示丝毫不受美盘下跌影响,仍努力保持震荡上扬走势,但短线连续上行之后“超买”痕迹会越来越明显。 马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,本周一跳空高开阴十字星K线之后,昨日出现小幅下挫整理走势,但盘中下挫动能不强(下方有60天均线支撑 ),终盘以连续2根阴K线十字星收盘(并列K线组合)。在昨日美盘豆油阴K线下跌表现之后,今天周三早盘期价仅仅小幅低开,后受内盘油脂走强带动,截止上午盘面为红盘表现。 小结:美盘豆油昨日周二出现阴K线回落整理,但内盘 马盘油脂商品“不为所动”,继续在60天均线上方运行(由于当前期价距离下方60天均线没有多少回落空间),多头主力刚刚攻上60天均线后,不愿放弃上攻成果,盘中多头主力积极护盘意愿明显—–这种盘面“有利有弊”, 有利是指 期价上行能拉动日K线图表上均线系统下方短期均线上穿长期均线(5 10 20天均线上穿40 60天均线),有利于形成“金叉”向上态势,更多吸引做多人气。 有弊则是指 持续红盘上拉会形成更小周期(分时图表)上出现“超买”痕迹过于明显, 这是一种“不可调和矛盾”,会对后市走势形成些许不利影响,因此上: 我们在保持短多不变观点前提下,仍需谨防后市的小幅调整(时间上被往后推延了)。 具体操作上:前期多单继续持有,激进型交易者时刻预防盘中的冲高回落行情。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil showed consolidation phase while China and Malaysia soybean oil maintained current position. • Cautious for small correction phase while China and Malaysia soybean oil stayed above 60 days moving average. [ACTION] • Aggressive traders are recommended to aware of the occurrence of correction phase. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 27 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.2.27日周二美盘大豆昨日晚间冲高回落 美盘黄大豆昨日周一晚间期价冲高回落,在连续多日强势上扬之后出现一根带上影线的中阴K线,美豆短线高位出现一定压力。 美盘豆油5月合约,昨日期价中阳上涨,盘中反弹动能充沛。当前期价反弹到40天均线位置,我们继续看高到60天均线处——后市当期价触及60天均线位置时候,会出现2种走势,1.继续快速上冲突破,下方短期均线上穿60天线形成“金叉”,然后回路均线等待第二波的上冲。2.期价在空头排列的60天均线位置受阻,期价直接回落。。。当前判断后市如何演绎为时尚早,但我个人观点更倾向第一种可能,让我们继续关注美盘豆油在60天均线位置的表现。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,今天周二盘面多头主力略趋谨慎,盘中成交趋淡,期价十字星表现(内盘豆油小阴K线回落调整),期价在日K线图表上60天均线位置徘徊等待(内盘棕榈油略强一点),继续关注美盘豆油短线走势指引。 马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,昨日周一十字星收盘于2540令吉,今天周二期价继续在2540—2550一线波动,整体期价在60天均线上方运行(2018年1月中旬以来右侧横盘区间整理的“上沿”),下方均线趋于粘合,我们继续关注这个区间横盘整理“上沿”被向上突破的可靠性。 小结: 美盘豆油超跌之后的短线技术反弹上行走势延续中,期价继续努力上攻空头排列的均线系统(当前到达40天线),上攻动能未衰竭前,我们继续短多观点看待。 内盘 马盘油脂商品率先一步到达60天线,后市如何演绎,等待美盘豆油的短线走势指引。具体操作上:油脂类商品上稳健型交易者手中多单继续持有,激进型交易者思维更敏感一步,谨防急涨过后的小幅回落。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil reached 40 days moving average, indicated the previous day uptrend. • China and Malaysia soybean reached 60 days moving average, awaiting US soybean oil for future short-term performance. [ACTION] • Aggressive traders are recommended to take profit for part of their portfolio, and initiate new position when correction phase occurred. • Conservative traders are advised to hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.2.26日周一美盘豆油反弹上行到40天均线处 美盘黄大豆短线反弹上行呈现加速状态,当前期价已经接近一年来的新高点(阿根廷干旱 大豆预期减产)。 美盘豆油5月合约也开始按耐不住,内盘春节假期过后,美豆油也开始从低位震荡反弹上行——-上周五晚间期价阳K线盘上涨(带上影线),今天周一亚洲电子盘继续阳K线表现,期价超跌之后的技术性反弹触及日K线图表上40天均线处,盘中观察,美盘豆油反弹动能充沛,后市仍有上行能量,我们暂时把第一目标看高到60天均线位置33.10一线(密切关注触及到60天均线时候 能否形成均线“金叉”向上 若金叉成立 则有可能形成一波 中级反弹行情 )。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,上周四是内盘春节7天长假回来的首个交易日, 上周四 上周五 今天周一——已经连续3天期价上涨,特别是上周五更是长阳飙涨,一举打破此前僵持局面率先发动反弹上行,我们继续短多看待。 马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,在上周四时候我们报告中建议“新多单进场逢低补仓操作”,上周五期价高开高走中阳K线上涨收盘,今天又在内盘 美盘油脂商品上涨提振下——-早盘跳空高开, 期价一举跳上60天均线上方,前期短线横盘波动震荡走势有望被向上突破,多单继续持有。 小结:全球油脂类商品短线反弹走势成立,连续3天的拉升已经明确了短线走势方向,我们接下来的关注焦点继续放在“反弹高度与反弹动能”上来。。。考虑到内盘 马盘已经连续3天上行,短线分时指标存在一定“超买”迹象,随后2天(本周二 周三)期价存在更小周期上的小幅回落整理要求,但这个小幅调整不会影响短线周期角度的继续反弹。 具体操作上:内盘 马盘新老多单继续持有,后市继续看高一线。 部分激进型散户交易者可逢盘中急速上冲时刻部分多单兑现利润,待更小周期的小幅回落时候再多单逢低接回。 而稳健型交易者 或操盘手法不熟练交易者不建议该操作。 [SUMMARY] • Focus on the peak of the rally after US soybean oil short term rally trend confirmed. • Short term indicator displayed “overbought” after China and Malaysia market showed uptrend. [ACTION] • Aggressive traders are recommended to take profit for part of their portfolio, and initiate new position when correction phase occurred. • Conservative/unexperienced traders are advised not to follow the above strategy. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading […]

UK Misses Forecast in Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 26 February 2018 Fundamental Outlook The US jobless claims improve amid growing existing home sales. Eurozone fulfills expected gains in inflation. U.K. misses the GDP forecast while business investment flattens. The U.S. existing home sale expanded at 5.38 million after the December was revised down to 5.56 million. Unemployment claims lowered to 222,000 in the week ended 17 February. German ZEW Economic Sentiment grows 17.8 in February and lower than previous month 20.4. German manufacturing index grows at 60.3 reading in February and matched forecast. Eurozone consumer prices rose 1.3 percent in January on annual basis. Another report on core prices, excluding food and energy, grew 1.0 percent from a year ago. The U.K. average earning index gained 2.5 percent in quarterly basis ended December. Claimants for jobless benefits dropped 7,200 in January and better than expectation. Public sector […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 26 February 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices have shown good demand as prices recovered last week. Technically, the trend will stand firm on USD61 /barrel support and gradually consolidate the buying interest further. Resistance is identified at USD64 /barrel as we foresee range trading within this target window will persists for a while. Gold Gold prices found support at USD1320 /oz last week as buying interest recovered from here. This week, we reckon the trend will be moving sideways from USD1320 – USD1345 /oz in-lieu of lower Dollar. However, the market forces will find another support around USD1305 /oz in case the bear engulfs beneath the current support at USD1320 /oz. Silver Silver prices consolidated last week in sideways trend. Range trading is constricted from USD16.40 – USD16.80 /oz in tight range while waiting for a breakout. Technically, we reckon a strong […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.2.23日周五内盘豆油 棕榈油长阳飙涨油脂类商品多单持有 美盘豆油5月合约期价从前几日低点31.60一线正努力上穿空头排列的均线系统给予的层层阻力(日K线图表上),当前短线反弹上行走势延续中,后市能反弹到那根均线高度有待我们盘中观察,我们暂时以弱势反弹短多观点对待,密切关注盘中反弹动能的大小。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,今天周五早盘高开,全天增仓震荡上行,盘中多头主力进场拉升迹象明显(长阳K线),我们昨日周四建议的散户朋友逢低多单进场补仓时机把我的刚刚好(假期后首个交易日),继续多单持有。 马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,昨日周四盘面期价还阴K线表现(犹豫徘徊),今天周五早盘期价跳空高开(受内盘提振),盘中减仓上行表现—–为空头主力认输止损出局,我们继续短多思维对待。(昨日马来西亚棕榈油局公布产量数据 2月份1—20日的产量环比减少6.4% 利多)。 小结: 昨日周四油脂商品盘面还曾犹豫徘徊不前,今天周五盘面瞬间全部走强,市场短线走势瞬息万变——当前短线市场反弹上行走势基本符合我们此前技术心理预期,继续短多观点对待。 具体操作上: 昨日周四早盘报告中建议的逢低多单补仓操作完成的散户朋友,新多单乐观持有,假期前少量多单持有者继续持有。。。。后市我们目光关注焦点转移到具体的反弹高度以及反弹动能大小 上来。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil gapped up despite experienced consolidation phase on Thursday. [ACTION] • Traders who are holding minimal positions may resume holding their current positions. • Traders who are not holding any position may initiate new positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 22 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.2.22日周四内盘马盘油脂商品继续短多看待 春节长假期间,美盘黄豆连短线走势继续保持反弹上行走势,当前期价已经反弹至1050一线,创出半年多以来的新高。 美盘豆油5月,昨日周三晚间中阳K线红盘上涨,短线形成了2根错列的阳K线,虽然期价暂时变化不大。。。基本上符合假期前我们所预期的“先抑后扬”走势,美豆油短线下挫之后存在技术反弹要求。 大陆内盘油脂商品在7天春节假期之后,今天周四早盘开盘交易。 豆油棕榈油1805主力合约今天早盘跳空高开,期价小幅走高,我们继续短多观点对待。 马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,内盘春节假期期间,期价呈现横盘波动震荡走势,围绕在2500整数关口一线徘徊震荡,期价变化不大,盘面交投略显清淡,多空主力在等待具体的盘面指引,今日马来西亚棕榈油局将有产量数据报告公布,让我们密切关注。 此刻马盘棕榈油尚未开盘,我们预测今日周期马盘棕榈油恐将小幅走高。 小结:美盘豆油出现“止跌企稳”迹象苗头,在长假期时间里未出现期价大幅下挫局面,短线超跌之后存在技术上反弹要求,后市我们对美豆油以短多观点对待。 具体操作上: 内盘 马盘假期前少量多单持有者继续持有,场外无仓观望交易者可于今天周四早盘逢低少量多单进场补仓, 后市期价仍有反弹动能。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil showed a sign of reversal trend. • No obvious sign of trend plummets during Lunar New Year. [ACTION] • Traders who are holding minimal positions may resume holding their current positions. • Traders who are not holding any position may initiate new positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 20 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.2.20日周二内盘金融市场春节假期停盘7天马盘棕榈油围绕在2500整数关口徘徊等待 美盘金融市场昨天周一因“总统日”假期停盘一天。。。对美盘油脂商品来说—–美大豆保持短线震荡反弹上扬走势,美豆油下探式低位寻支撑,二者短线走势仍在分化中,基本符合假期前我们的心理预期。单对美盘豆油5月合约来说,该品种下挫的空间正逐步收窄(时间换取空间 下方空间不大),短线技术上仍存在超跌后的反弹技术要求。 大陆内盘油脂商品,因国内7天长假期,目前仍停盘中,内盘将在本周四(后天)开盘交易。 马盘毛棕榈油基准5月(或4月),昨日周一期价低开高走中阳K线上涨收盘,今天周二上午盘面为高开低走的中阴K线下跌,阴阳K线交错中徘徊震荡,但整体期价仍维持在2500整数关口附近, 在内盘未开盘交易前提下,马盘棕榈期价不会太远离2500一线。 小结:美盘豆油下探寻支撑接近尾声阶段,相信下方空间已经被封杀(要跌早跌下来了 这次长假期未出现明显V型大的变化),市场被一只无形的手笼罩中。。。。内盘停盘后,马盘油脂徘徊震荡等待时机(今天周二期价会震荡走低一些), 但整体变化不大。 操作上:无仓交易者继续场外冷眼旁观,轻仓或节前少量多单持有的散户朋友继续持仓不动,等待美盘豆油触底之后的反向提振。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil finding support in the market reaching final stage. • Malaysia soybean oil price will experience some volatility. Overall market remain unchanged. [ACTION] • Traders who are not holding any position may wait for entry signal. • Traders who are holding minimal positions in US soybean oil should maintain current positions and wait for reversal signal. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 19 February 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices returned to above USD60 /barrel before weekend. This week, we foresee the market will move in sideways trend without realistic action. Range is expected to swing from USD59 – USD63 /barrel unless we see a lead movement in Dollar Index. Gulf countries are remaining calm amid the dispute with Qatar while OPEC countries stay positive in cutting production. Gold Gold prices topped USD1360 /oz again last week before traded lower for weekend close. Resistance is still strong at USD1360 /oz unless the Dollar Index falls this week for pushing the yellow metal above this benchmark. Technically, we forecast the trend will trade in tight range from USD1330 – USD1360 /oz while making consolidation. Risk control is advised in case the bulls pierce above USD1360 /oz level. Silver Silver prices remain resilient at USD17.00 /oz for […]

American Economy Leans to Inflation

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 19 February 2018 Fundamental Outlook The U.S. consumer prices beat forecast while retail prices fall. Housing report are recovering on inflation demand. Eurozone GDP grows in line with forecast. Britain leans to inflation from the consumer report while retail prices remains good growth. The U.S. consumer prices grew 0.5 percent in January while core prices, excluding food and energies, gained 0.3 percent on monthly basis. Retail prices slid 0.3 percent and core prices, excluding automobiles, was flat in January. American jobless claims expanded to 230,000 for the week ended 10 February. Industrial production slid 0.1 percent in January that was worst in past 5 months. Another report on producer prices grew 0.4 percent and core prices, excluding food and energy, also gained 0.4 percent. The U.S. building permit rose 1.40 million in January. Another report on housing starts gained […]

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