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Monthly Archives: April, 2018

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 30 April 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices gradually narrow into a tight range as the market trades from USD67 – USD69 /barrel. It is a good sign to see the oil prices holding well despite Dollar ascension. This week, we forecast the range will remain unchanged but a possibility of Dollar decline after mid-May may spur the Crude prices to go higher eventually. Meanwhile, bargain-hunting is expected at USD66 /barrel region. Gold Gold prices dipped to USD1315 /oz last week. Market retraced down to where we predicted previously and is expected to recover this week. Technically, we reckon bargain-hunting will arise at USD1310 /oz and move high this week. Range is expected to move from USD1310 – 1335 /oz while in consolidating sentiment. Silver Silver prices melted down quickly last week after attained the top USD17.36 /oz level. The trend sank to […]

Kim-Moon Meet in for Historic Moment

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 30 April 2018 Fundamental Outlook The US home sale continue to grow and signal inflation among property demand. Leaders for North and South Korea meet to talk peace and attracts global media focus. European Central Bank stays unchanged in monetary policy. The US existing home sale rose 5.60 million and grew in second consecutive month. . New homes sale continued to grow in March at 694,000 and best record in 4 months. The US Conference Board of consumer confidence rises to 128.7 in April and higher than March. Weekly Crude storage increased 2.2 million barrels ended 21 April and put lid on demand rise. The US durable goods rose 2.6 percent in March. Excluding transport equipment, core durable goods stayed flat and below forecast. Another separate report on GDP for Q1 seasons grew 2.3 percent and above forecast, after […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 27 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.4.27日周五五一劳动节前停止交易节后再战 美盘豆油7月合约,短线期价仍然在低位徘徊震荡,盘中下探疲软走势明显,但整体下挫幅度不大,以时间换空间态度坚决,对内盘马盘影响力略有减弱。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,今天阴阳十字星K线走势,盘中期价波动幅度收窄,内盘临近五一假期,市场交投不旺,多空主力均较为谨慎,我们散户朋友也场外冷眼旁观。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,马盘棕榈油最近几天也是小十字星K线走势,期价在2400一线波动震荡,期价变化不大,短线操作意义不大,对稳健型交易者来说,这种行情不建议盲目操作(鸡肋行情 没什么利润)。 小结:内盘期货市场临近“五一劳动节”假期,将停盘四天,下周三5月2日才开盘。在此期间美国贸易高级代表团将来中国谈判,将就近期中美贸易摩擦进行磋商,本次代表团成员为: 美国财政部长姆努钦贸易代表莱特希泽国家经济委员会主任库德洛以及白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗。。。 此次高级代表团人物全部是“鹰派”人物,是否能谈判成功目前尚不能确定,为规避金融风险,我们本周不再建议任何操作,稳健型交易者继续场外观望,激进型交易者手中少量试盘多单谨慎持有,关注美盘假期期间的表现,等待节后情况明朗后,我们再从新操作。 [SUMMARY] • China market will resume trading on 2/5/2018 after International Labour Day for 4 consecutive days. • US representatives will be having a upcoming negotiation in China. [ACTION] • Conservative and aggressive traders are advised to hold their current positions until market resume trading after International Labour Day. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.4.26日周四美豆油下挫内盘马盘抵抗 美盘黄豆连期价在日K线图表上60天均线位置受到一定支撑,期价暂时止跌企稳。而美盘豆油7月合约,短线走势仍较为疲软,期价上方压力较重。 昨天周三晚间中阴K线下跌,期价靠近31.00一线,创出近期新低, 美豆油下探式寻支撑走势延续中。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,今天早盘追随美盘豆油低开低走,后在上午11时,期价止跌回升,截止到上午12时,日K线图表上以带下影线的小阳K线收盘, 盘中空头减仓多头护盘动作依然存在。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,近几日期价波动不大,整体以小的阴阳十字星K线围绕2400令吉特一线波动震荡,盘面变化不大,继续在4月17日长阳上涨K线的右侧徘徊。 小结:美豆油疲软态势依旧,内盘短线追随,马盘抵抗。 从内盘马盘油脂商品本周表现来看——“上有压力 下有支撑”,盘面波动收窄,整体期价变化不大。。。考虑到内盘仅有明天最后一个交易日(五一劳动节放假 28 29 30 1 四天),我们在劳动节前不做新的操作建议,等待节后市场更清晰后再操作。 具体操作上: 稳健型交易者继续场外观望,鸡肋行情意义不大,不盲目操作。 激进型交易者少量试盘多单持仓不动,继续等待后市超跌之后的技术反弹走势表现。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil remain weak, in tandem with China edible oil while Malaysia edible oil struggled to maintain their position. • Current market status remain in tug of war between buyers and sellers. [ACTION] • Conservative and aggressive traders are advised to hold their current positions until market resume trading after International Labour Day. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 24 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.4.24日周二 中美贸易摩擦情绪再度升级,全球金融市场仍处于动荡不安中,出于对美国大豆出口的担忧情绪,美盘黄豆连期价连续下跌,当前期价下跌到日K线图表的60天均线处(均线系统多头排列)。 美豆油7月合约期价昨日周一晚间再创新低31.15,美豆油的疲软下挫整理态势依旧,间接拖累内盘 马盘油脂商品。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,今天周二盘面,低开低走表现,期价略有下跌,盘中恐慌情绪不严重,不盲目看很低。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,今天早盘低开高走红盘表现(截止中午时分),期价与昨日收盘价相差无几,仍表现为小幅整理状态。 小结:美盘豆油喋喋不休,严重拖累内盘 马盘油脂商品短线技术走势, 内盘马盘小幅跟随,下方空间不是很大,多空主力并未有多大动作,我们继续场外冷眼观望。 操作上:稳健型交易者继续观望(鸡肋行情), 激进型交易者少量试盘多单继续持有,继续关注美盘豆油后续表现。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil routed which affected Malaysia and China edible oils products. [ACTION] • Conservative traders may hold their current positions. • Aggressive traders could initiate small amount of new positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 April 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices continue to climb at 3-1/2 year high while almost reaching USD70 /barrel before weekend. The week-chart has clearly shown the bullish factor has stepped into market for coming weeks with strong momentum. In case of falling back, we reckon support will emerge at USD65 /barrel and quick recovery is expected. Market may simply trade within the price range from USD65 – USD70 /barrel for coming weeks. Gold Gold prices have been trading sideways like we predicted last week. Range is rather tight from USD1320 – USD1360 /oz amid mixed sentiment. Other than Crude prices surge, there is no movement in Dollar Index which could be the reason for triggering sideways in yellow metal. This week, we foresee similar market sentiment unless the trend goes beyond the aforementioned range in either direction. Silver Silver prices shot […]

UK Slows in Economic Progress amid BREXIT

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 23 April 2018 Fundamental Outlook The U.S. economy continues to progress as housing data hints to inflation. China stays on growing track after Q1 GDP grows 6.8 percent. U.K. falls in inflation and retail demand as BREXIT looms. The U.S. retail sales rose 0.6 percent in March, above forecast and highest in past 4 months. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, grew 0.2 percent. Industrial production including utilities and mines rose 0.5 percent in March. American building permits rose 1.35 million in March on annualized rate. Another report on housing starts expanded 1.32 million and above forecast. The U.S. jobless claims for the week ended 14 April steadied at 232,000 cases. The U.S. government issues new sanction and 7-year ban on Chinese smartphone maker ZTE, after the phone maker was caught shipping goods to Iran illegally and fined USD1.2 billion […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.4.23日周一油脂商品暂时以短线弱势反弹看待 美盘豆油7月合约,短线走势仍较为模糊,盘面方向感不强,期价仍低位波动震荡为主,多空主力较为谨慎,继续等待美豆油长阳拉起时刻到来。 大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,今天周一早盘期价小阳K线表现,在美盘豆油未给出明确指引带动之前,内盘油脂有反弹欲望,但期价上涨幅度不明显,继续等待人气聚集。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,上周五马棕榈小阳K线上涨表现,今天周一上午盘面暂时小阴K线走势,整体期价处于4月17日长阳K线的右上角运行,期价脱离3月12日低点区域后涨幅不算很大,考虑到日K线图表上为空头排列的均线系统,我们暂时以弱势反弹观点对待。 小结:内盘马盘油脂商品短线技术上存在反弹要求,但由于缺少美盘豆油的配合,短线走势盘面变化不大,继续关注美盘豆油在低位的运行情况。操作上: 稳健型交易者场外观望, 激进型交易者少量进场试盘多单谨慎持有,密切关注美盘豆油的走势表现。 [SUMMARY] • Malaysia and China edible oils rose, shown sign of rebound, but remain weak without support from US soybean oil. [ACTION] • Conservative traders may hold their current positions. • Aggressive traders could initiate small amount of new positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 20 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.4.20日周五油脂商品继续短多反弹观点看待 本周美豆油7月合约,期价在低位区域蛰伏不动,盘面走势无新意,整体期价波动不大, 就好像再等待什么消息刺激一样,多空主力都按兵不动,让美豆油继续在时间上“磨”吧。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,内盘豆油上周“冲高回落”急跌之后,本周5个交易日期价右侧横盘波动,短线下挫杀跌动能减弱,期价止跌回稳。 内盘棕榈油本周二收出下影线后,期价短暂波动震荡,技术上再次酝酿新一波反弹走势。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,本周二期价低开高走长阳K线之后,短线形态上形成了“阳包阴”吞没形态,短线出现期价走强迹象。虽然期价随后几天继续涨幅不大,但短线拖累下方2350低位区域, 继续等待短多人气聚集。 小结:美盘豆油短线走势不佳,盘中横盘模糊。 内盘 马盘油脂商品短线出现反弹欲望,虽然当前期价涨幅不大,但后市我们继续看高一线。 操作上: 稳健型交易者暂时场外观望,部分激进型散户朋友可少量短多进场接盘(在阴K线低点进多埋伏),后市短线以技术反弹观点对待。 另外5月合约部分持仓多单下周注意平仓了结换月操作。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil still remain in unfavourable condition. • Malaysia and China edible oils rose, shown sign of rebound. [ACTION] • Conservative traders may hold their current positions. • Traders who are still holding May contract may prepare to close positions when necessary. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 19 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.4.19日周四油脂类商品酝酿反弹走势人气 美盘豆油7月合约,短线走势继续不温不火的“温水煮青蛙”模式,短线走势没一点新鲜感—–多年以来,美豆油走势都是方向感明确,波段性上涨下跌轮廓清晰,从来没有像现在这样“模糊”, 最近一段时间简直令人失望透顶—–你若要下,就痛快的下,可它又下不动,下方一只无形的手在撑着,要么就上, 可上面也有一只无形的手在压着。。。美豆油就这样虫子般“蛰伏”,分析难度加大。无论它怎么用时间换取空间——我继续以下挫超跌之后的技术酝酿反弹观点对待(美豆油中短线技术存在超跌反弹要求)。 大陆内盘期货市场,今天周四盘面各类大宗商品人气高涨——从贵金属 黄金白银 到有色金属 铜锌 黑色金属螺纹钢 铁矿石 甚至化工类橡胶 PTA等等品种,期价均是红盘阳K线上涨,盘中做多人气凝聚。。。对油脂类农产品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约来说,今天周四期价小幅上涨,盘中涨幅不大,仍需短线做多氛围渲染,我们耐心短多反弹观点对待。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,本周二期价中阳K线探底上涨表现,昨日周三又继续小阳K线,今天周四早盘期价高开低走的小阴K线走势,期价已经脱离3月12日2352令吉特的前低位置, 当前来到2400整数关一线运行, 虽然涨幅不大,但我们短线超卖之后的触底反弹观点不变。 小结: 内盘 马盘油脂商品期价小幅走高,反弹雏形逐步出现痕迹,美盘豆油仍蛰伏不动,继续等待美盘豆油的“短线呼应指引”。 操作上:稳健型交易者场外观望, 不见美盘出现新动静不操作。 前期未逢高平仓干净的多单,特别是5月合约的部分多单,继续把握逢高减仓的心理准备,后市期价我们继续看高一线。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil market remain volatile. • Malaysia and China edible oils rose, showing sign of rebound. [ACTION] • Conservative traders may hold their current positions. • Traders who are still holding May contract may prepare to close positions when necessary. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his […]

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