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Monthly Archives: May, 2018

Global Vegoils Analysis – 31 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.5.31日周四油脂商品一片混乱稳健操作者观望 美盘大豆受政治因素影响,期价连续2天大幅下跌,短线的反弹回落走势明显。 美盘豆油7月合约,期价在60天均线位置徘徊波动—–上方有60天均线阻挡,下方受短期均线 5 10 20天均线支撑, 美豆油暂时陷入“夹缝中”,一种身不由己的模糊表现。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,昨日周三盘面出现异动——早盘期价高开高走多头发力上冲, 午后2点半期价又快速回落,终盘以带长上影线的阳K线收盘(无功而返)。 今天周四期价又十字星表现,短线多头主力拉锯战 暂时失去方向感。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周三上午盘面期价顺势走低,盘中下挫走势明显, 但在下午段开盘后—-期价瞬间跳空高开,期价又震荡走高,终盘以带下影线的阳K线收盘,昨日马盘棕榈受大连交易所的棕榈油走势影响明显。 今天周四盘面又小阴K线表现。 小结:美国商务部长罗斯将于6月初访华,当前油脂商品政治层面不确定因素较多,短线市场恐将受贸易谈判的情绪波动影响,因此当前油脂商品多空主力都表现较为急躁, 多空主力情绪上的剧烈拉锯波动往往带有“瞬间的伤害性”,尤其是对散户朋友。操作上: 稳健型交易者观望 短线操作技术不擅长者观望, 少部分激进型交易者可日内短线交易,但需日内及时平仓了结。当前整体油脂商品短线走势模糊,瞬间的脉冲式急速波动 只适合日内超短线高手, 普通波段性散户朋友我们还是建议场外观望为上。 [SUMMARY] • Overall, global edible oils remain volatile. • In short terms, the outcome of negotiation between US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and China government will affect market sentiment. [ACTION] • Aggressive traders may initiate intraday trading strategy. • Conservative traders may hold off until further confirmation. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 30 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018年5月30日周三美国政府出尔反尔令中美贸易摩擦再度升温 在5月初,美国白宫高级代表团来华磋商中美贸易战,事后双方发表联合声明—–美国财长姆努钦明确对媒体说“美中贸易磋商取得了有意义的进展,两国就框架问题达成协议,双方同意停打贸易战”,这声音余音在耳。。。却不料美国白宫在昨天5月29日再度发布声明——将仍将对中国500亿中国商品征收25%的关税,具体商品清单将在6月15日公布。 哎呦 ,这美国政府(特朗普老头)是在用任性透支国家信誉,把全世界人民都搞糊涂了, 这只会让美国在国际道义上越发陷入尴尬和被动境界,世界老大地位越发摇摇欲坠! 针对白宫最新变化,中国商务部新闻发言人在29日深夜也发表声明: “我们对白宫发布的策略性声明感到出乎意料,但又在意料之中,这显然有悖于不久前在美国华盛顿双方达成的共识。无论美方出台什么举措,中方都有信心 有能力 有经验捍卫中国人民利益和国家核心利益,中方敦促美方按照联合声明精神 相向而行”。 受美国政府单方面的摇摆不定利空消息刺激,对中方严厉反击态度的担忧,直接传导到美国大豆市场——美盘黄豆连昨日周二晚间闻讯期价大幅跳空下跌,前期的反弹上扬走势戛然而止,美盘豆油7月合约也追随性期价走弱,美盘油脂商品再度陷于恐慌之中。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约, 今天周三盘面出现“异动”, 内盘大豆 豆粕期价今天出现下跌(前期追随美盘反弹上涨)。而内盘豆油1809合约,前两天一度疲软,今天却突然中阳K线上涨, 而内盘棕榈油却继续保持下挫,内盘豆油 棕榈油二者走势出现分化。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周二因公共假期停盘一天,今天周三开盘后,期价延续本周一的下跌走势,期价惯性下挫,马盘棕榈油当前回落到2400一线。 小结:美盘油脂市场承受波动情绪影响,暂且不管是因为美国商务部长罗斯即将访问中国,美国再度挥舞大棒想讹诈出一个更有利的谈判筹码,更不排除这是特朗普的一种斗争策略——-但美国政府的“变脸高手”表现,为世人所不齿,国家政治信誉被特朗普老头挥霍殆尽。。。这也令美盘油脂商品市场出现恐慌性下跌, 但观察内盘豆油今天表现,期价突然走高,却也令人费解。 而内盘 马盘 棕榈油期价继续保持反弹之后的下挫走势, 豆油 棕榈油二者今天周三盘面出现分化走势迹象。 因此我们具体操作上也要发生一些变化: 激进型交易者可多豆油空棕榈油跨品种套利,马盘毛棕榈油继续短空。 稳健型交易者可场外观望,不趟此浑水。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil fell due panic selling caused by unexpected raised of import tariff from US. • China soybean oil unexpectedly rallied despite US soybean oil routed. [ACTION] • Aggressive traders may initiate long positions on soybean oil while initiate short positions on Malaysia palm oil. • Conservative traders may hold off until further confirmation. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 28 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.5.28日周一美盘公共假期内盘油脂出现受阻下跌 美盘豆油7月合约,上周四上冲到60天均线上方后,终盘为上影线的小阳K线,其中上影线的出现表明上方存在多头逢高减仓盘与空头的打压盘,存在一定的压力。 而上周五又表现为中阴K线下跌,期价再度回落到60天均线下方,这一信号的出现,对美盘豆油提醒我们要保持谨慎态度。 今天是5月28日周一,恰逢美国阵亡将士纪念日,美国金融市场停盘一天未交易。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,上周五为阴K线的冲高回落走势,今天周一早盘期价继续下跌,连续2根的阴K线—–内盘油脂率先出现走坏继续, 还好我们在前几日就提前做出了多单逢高减仓的建议,暂时规避了前期多单的一定风险。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,在上周四之前,期价短线角度为反弹上行走势,盘中见高点2490一线, 在上周五为跳空低开的小阴K线下跌表现,盘面出现了一些警示信号, 今天周一早盘,受外围周边市场下跌影响(国际原油 美豆油 大陆盘油脂),恐今天马盘棕榈油也将出现一定程度的下跌。 小结:国际原油市场—–由于欧佩克组织与俄罗斯近日商议将共同增产100万桶/日,以弥补伊朗 委内瑞拉两国因素的供应量不足情况,国际原油市场出现下跌,其中美国纽约原油上周五期价暴跌3%,创近期单日最大跌幅,一根长阴K线的出现,拉开国际原油反弹上行之后的回落整理序幕。 美盘豆油上周五期价也中阴K线下跌表现, 尾盘未能站稳60天均线上方(上攻后回落),今天美盘油脂市场因公共假期停盘,在缺少了美盘指引后,内盘油脂市场今天率先出现下跌, 马盘棕榈油也恐将不能幸免。 操作建议:前期剩余少量多单全部平仓出局,已经平仓完成的部分敏感激进型交易者可适量反手日内短空(短空日内平仓了结), 稳健型交易者可场外观望,等待美盘假期回来后的走势指引。 [SUMMARY] • OPEC and Russia decided to increase supply output due to weak supply from Venezuela and Iran. • Global crude oil routed, causing China edible oils to slip below EMA 60 which also affected Malaysia palm oil. [ACTION] • Traders are advised to close remaining positions. • Aggressive traders may initiate short positions. • Conservative traders may wait patiently for clearer market direction. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 28 May 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices fell about 6 percent correction last week after the news of loosening supply cut by Russia and OPEC members. Technically, we reckon a strong support will emerge at current 67.00 /barrel level with additional bargain-hunting at USD65 /barrel in case of further drawdown. Following the sanction on Iran, global shortage of oil supply will be expected over coming months. Target range will likely trade from USD65 – USD71 /barrel this week. Gold Gold prices swung up from USD1280 /oz last week and closed at USD1301 /oz for the weekend. This week, we have identified the market trend to be hovering at current EMA200 line and will probably thread sideways amid mixed sentiment. Range is expected to be contained from USD1290 – USD1320 /oz as flight of fund may temporary move from Crude to yellow metal. […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 24 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.5.24日周四美盘豆油继续对60天均线发起挑战 美盘黄豆连短线走势凌厉反弹,期价在下方1000整数关口受到支撑,短短几天期价上涨到1050一线。 美盘豆油为小碎步震荡上行,盘中每天涨幅虽然不大,但短线的反弹走势仍延续中——昨日周三晚间期价继续上攻调整60天均线的阻挡,今天周四亚洲电子盘期价已经站到60天均线的上方, 这给予内盘 马盘 油脂商品多头主力一定信心。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,昨日周三盘面走低,盘中阴K线下跌表现(主要是美豆油尚未站在60天均线 害怕该位置存在技术阻挡),当今天看到美豆油仍然存在反弹动能,今天内盘油脂商品再度红盘表现,截止中午盘面为中阳K线上涨,继续短多观点对待。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周三红十字星走势,受内盘 美盘上涨提振,今天周四早盘再度跳空高开,截止中午,期价在2480一线徘徊,当前马盘棕榈油下方均线正金叉上穿60天均线, 我们继续短多思维对待。 小结:美盘豆油开始对60天均线发起调挑战,期价上攻技术阻挡要求强烈,短线反弹走势基本符合我们此前预期,我们继续保持超跌之后的短线反弹上行观点不变。 内盘 马盘油脂商品反弹上行走势延续中,虽然也曾出现“一波三折”现象,但未改震荡向上态势,在反弹动能尚未衰竭前,我们继续短多思维对待, 密切关注后市行情是否出现上涨加速迹象——–若出现盘中加速急涨时刻,我们依旧建议多单分批量 分点位逢高派发操作建议。。。后市均线上穿之后,期价会有一个快速冲高回落 再度确认均线“金叉上穿”可靠性的下挫确认动作,因此上我们的前期多单尽量靠近第一波反弹高点位置平仓为佳。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil still testing for breakout of EMA 60. • Malaysia and China edible oils resumed their rallies. [ACTION] • Traders who followed previous day trading strategy may close positions gradually for profit taking. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.5.23日周三美盘豆油上冲未果内盘油脂高开低走 美盘豆油7月合约,昨日周二晚间,曾一度中阳K线上涨,期价上穿60天均线,但在空头主力百般阻挠下,终盘以带上影线的小阳K线收盘(上冲未果)。 今天周三亚洲电子盘,期价继续在60天均线31.70一线徘徊试探, 多头主力仍有上攻60天均线的决心与毅力,我们继续关注美盘豆油在60天线处表现。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,在昨日美豆油上攻未果情况下,内盘多头主力信心有所崩溃,今天周三盘面期价高开低走的下挫表现(中阴K线下跌),盘中部分多头因信心不足而减仓,等待美盘豆油的后续指引。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周二盘面为高开高走的小阳K线,期价仍站在60天均线上方,多头主力护盘积极。 今天周三盘面小阴十字星表现,期价在2460一线徘徊震荡, 马棕榈冷眼旁观市场后市如何演绎——在等待 美豆油 内盘棕榈油的具体表现明朗后,然后才会发起追随动作。 小结: 美豆油昨日晚间未能冲上60天均线的技术阻挡, 内盘油脂空头主力今天发力打压期价, 马盘棕榈油多空主力较为谨慎,按兵不动未盲目发力。 内盘马盘油脂商品在耐心等待美盘豆油的具体表现,我们散户朋友也不必心急,密切关注美豆油在60天均线处如何演绎? 我个人还是比较倾向继续上冲挑战60天均线的阻挡。 操作上: 前期多单继续持有,适量减持兑现利润之后的交易者,暂时不盲目新的操作(不追多 也不反空),手中剩余多单在随后几天继续注意逢高减仓操作—-我们当前主要操作就是 分批量 分点位 逢高派发兑现为主。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil unable to breakout of EMA 60 and routed. • Malaysia and China edible oils less affected by US soybean oil. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. • Traders who followed previous day trading strategy may close positions gradually for profit taking. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 22 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.5.22日周二棕榈强豆油弱密切关注美豆油在60天均线处后市表现 美盘豆油7月合约,不知不觉间,美豆油已经从本月初的30.15低点位置,反弹上行到今天的31.50一线,虽然盘中小碎步震荡爬升,并且还出现了一次“假摔”,但短线角度的技术性超跌后的反弹走势延续中,随着后期期价来到关键技术位—–空头排列的日K线图表上方最后一根均线60天线, 这是空头主要阻击位置,因为若多头上攻该高地后,空头排列的均线系统就有可能转化为多头排列,因此上空头肯定不会掉以轻心,让我们密切关注后市60天均线位置,美豆油的具体表现(建议散户朋友暂时以上攻观点看待 但也需谨防上攻失败的可能)。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约, 内盘棕榈强豆油弱盘面特征明显——棕榈油1809主力合约,当前期价已经上攻60天均线上方,随着期价的拔高,均线系统的短期均线(5 10 20天均线)正准备“金叉”上穿40 60天均线——在这地方有2种走势可能(马盘棕榈油与内盘情况相同),1. 多头主力提振期价快速猛向上冲, 拉动下方短期均线金叉长期均线,令空头排列的均线系统演变成多头排列 ,则“反转态势”形成。 2. 多头上攻过程中遭遇空头主力阻击,期价受阻转为冲高回落(前期已经发生好多次了),宣告反弹失败。。。当前内盘 马盘棕榈油均存在选择这2种走势中的一条路, 让我们密切关注。 对内盘豆油来说,当前期价暂时受阻于60天均线,尚不能完全站在上方,因此短线走势上弱于棕榈油, 内盘豆油需要等待美豆油的后市指引。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,短线情况跟内盘棕榈油走势相似——昨日周一盘面跳空高开于2475令吉特,盘中多头存在逢高兑现利润减仓动作,因此终盘以高开低走的阴K线收盘,昨日的跳空缺口在盘中被弥补。 今天周二早盘期价继续高开于2450一线,盘面观察,反弹上行动能仍未出现衰竭信号,暂时仍以短多观点对待,具体后市走势参照内盘棕榈油思维。 小结:美盘豆油反弹临近到关键技术—-60天均线处,是否上攻成功? 则成为我们本周关注的焦点,这也是我们判断内盘 马盘本波反弹上行的高度的分水岭,因此上至关重要, 以我个人主观观点,我认为期价会继续上攻,但需谨防快速上攻之后的“回抽确认”(均线上穿,然后期价再回抽确认均线金叉的可靠性)。。。 还是那句老话 “一颗红心两手准备”, 提醒我们反弹观点对待同时谨防冲高回落的发生。 具体操作上: 前期多单在本周随后几天期价上冲过程,散户朋友注意逢高减仓,先把一部分利润兑现出来, 并且是越急涨越要多单减仓,那位散户朋友摸住高点,那位朋友算是真高手(有人说 鱼头鱼尾不要 只要鱼身中间一段 我们偏偏不能这样 反其道行之 鱼头 鱼尾都尽量啃一口 不能丢弃 尽量做到利润最大化)。 具体建议是“分批量 分层次”逐步减仓。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil rebounded and testing for breakout near EMA 60. • Awaiting further market performance for reliable signal confirmation. [ACTION] • Traders may close positions gradually for profit taking. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 May 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices floated above USD71 /barrel last week together with Brent Crude. Conflict between European Union and US Governments on restoration of Iran may create another possibility of trade war since the exemption of US import tariff in European goods will end in May. Most market analysts predict Crude prices will reach above USD80 /barrel before year-end. This week, we forecast the market will thread high between USD69 – USD71 /barrel but piercing in either headway will lead a new directional trend. Gold Gold prices fell below USD1305 /oz support and reached USD1285 /oz bottom last week. Market has been oversold as panic demand rushes into greenback. This week, we forecast the yellow metal will be short-covered while the range is confined to USD1285 – USD1305 /oz region. We reckon the trend has to break beyond this […]

Market Sentiment Slows Down on Regional Base

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 14 May 2018 Fundamental Outlook The US housing growth slips while jobless claims improve slightly. China grew at slowest pace for fixed asset investment in non-rural sectors. Britain declines in earnings and claims for jobless benefits increase. The US retail sales gained 0.3 percent in April and down from revised 0.8 percent in March. Excluding automobiles, core prices also grew 0.3 percent but below expectation. American building permit expanded 1.35 million in April compared to revised 1.38 million in previous month. Another report on housing starts rose 1.29 million and below forecast. Industrial production including utilities and mines grew 0.7 percent after rose 0.6 percent in March. Jobless claims at 222,000 in the week ended 12 May and best in 4 weeks average. China’s industrial production rose 7.0 percent in April from a year ago and higher than previous […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 21 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.5.21日周一内盘马盘油脂商品继续反弹上扬 美盘豆油7月合约,上周三(5月16日)瞬间假摔之后,周四 周五小阳K线红盘上涨,前期失地被收复,今天周一亚洲电子盘仍继续红盘表现,美豆油短线角度的技术性小碎步震荡上行走势延续中。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,上周五发力上涨,今天周一又继续红盘上涨,特别是内盘棕榈油1809合约,从前期的4930低位已经触及到今天的5200高度,短线涨幅较明显。 内盘豆油盘中也曾上涨,但今天早盘出现多单逢高减仓迹象(上影线)。 马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,上周五高开补涨,全天小阴十字星表现,今天周一早盘继续高开跳空补涨(2475开盘)—-马盘棕榈油被动型跟涨走势明显, 早盘的高开低走痕迹,表明部分多头存在逢高兑现利润减仓动作发生。 小结:据华盛顿19日消息: 中美贸易战情绪缓解,经过一纸磋商谈判声明,双方不会互相加征关税,贸易战出现结束信号——其中关于美中贸易逆差问题的解决办法是, 以中国扩大进口美国商品的积极主张,来抵消中国减少出口的消极主张, 取消美国单方面早期主张的“中国消减两千亿美元贸易顺差” 这种霸权的指令性计划指标, 并且维护了中国底线—-不干涉中国追求产业升级 自我发展的权利。。。 内盘油脂商品短线角度的反弹上行走势较为明显, 美盘略微启动上涨, 马盘毛棕榈油追随性跟涨,整体来说—-油脂商品的短线走势延续中,基本符合我们此前预期。具体操作上: 前期所有多单继续谨慎持有, 部分激进型交易者手中多单获利丰厚者可适度减仓,当前盘面情绪化波动较为剧烈,但不改短线反弹上行走势。 [SUMMARY] • China edible oils rose sharply as trade wars between China and US ceased. • The ceased of trade wars also caused US soybean oil and Malaysia palm oil to increase dramatically. • Volatility increased due to ceased of trade wars. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. • Aggressive traders may take profit and close certain positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best […]

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