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Monthly Archives: July, 2018

Global Vegoils Analysis – 31 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.7.27日周五前期多单继续持有 美盘大豆豆油短线反弹上行走势延续中,当前期价逐渐反弹到上方的40天均线位置(日K线图表上均线系统为“空头排列”),截止到目前为止,反弹上行结束信号还没完全出现,因此我们继续保持谨慎的“弱势反弹”观点,若本周后半周期价出现任何的风吹草动迹象,可考虑在内盘马盘油脂商品上多单减仓。 大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,内盘油脂商品短线反弹上行走势延续中,特别是内盘豆油已经反弹到上方60天均线位置——该位置也就是7月9日的前高位置,也恰好是豆油1809合约的 W型双底雏形的“颈线”技术位, 因此上说,内盘豆油率先到达“关键技术位”,后市该位置是阻挡? 还是被向上突破? 则成为我们本周的关注焦点所在。 马盘棕榈油基准10月,期价不温不火的波动震荡——与其说是短线反弹,不如说是“横盘震荡”更确切些——期价整体变化不大,波动范围缩窄,多空主力握手言和,均未发力。。。仍属于低位的横盘酝酿阶段。 小结: 美盘油脂商品前期超跌之后,短线反弹上行走势明显, 内盘油脂紧紧追随,马盘棕榈不为所动暂时期价横盘, 植物油市场表现为—–豆油略强 棕榈油稍弱 局面,谨防受棕榈油反弹上行无力拖累,我们手中多单需要谨慎持有,万一后市短线出现任何的“风吹草动”不利情况出现,可在操作上多单做好减持的心理准备(思维在先 操作在后)。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oils rally continued, in tandem with China soybean oil. • Malaysia palm oil’s performance remain weak. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  […]

USD100 Billion Plus Rout by Social Media Giant Facebook is the Biggest Loss in Stock Market

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 30 July 2018 Fundamental Outlook The US GDP grows at best record in past 4 years. Other data on housing growth and durable orders remain flat. American Nasdaq drops from recent record high after Tech giant Facebook caused kneejerk decline. German tracks continual growth in manufacturing sector. The US existing home sale grew 5.38 million in June and below forecast, after charted 5.41 million in previous month. New home sales grew 631,000 in June, lower than forecast and previous month. American orders for durable goods rose 1.0 percent in June and below forecast. Core orders, excluding transportation, grew 0.4 percent and matched expectation. Unemployment claims for the week ended 21 July rose 217,000 and in-line with consensus. The US GDP for Q2 seasons grew 4.1 percent at best record since Q3 2014. President Trump says the numbers will go […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 30 July 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices have been rattling sideways while no directional headways is spotted in market. Traders are expecting the trend to rise again in August when the effect on Iran’s sanction kicks in. Technically, we foresee the trend will remain unchanged from USD67 – USD70 /barrel this week and not much fundamental change is expected to emerge. OPEC members stay on track to reduce production output till year-end. Gold Gold prices traded in tight range throughout last week while settled near to support USD1220 /oz on Friday. Market is in fatigue without new demand but bargain-hunting will emerge very strongly at USD1200 – USD1220 /oz region. This week, we foresee the trend will climb higher in recovery but resisted at USD1245 /oz area. On the other hand, it may also be possible to loiter at bargain-hunting region if […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 27 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.7.27日周五前期多单继续持有 美盘大豆昨日周四晚间冲高回落,盘面上有技术反弹要求,但心理层面心理压力依旧较大。 美豆油12月合约,昨日晚间也是冲高回落的阴K线表现,期价刚准备反弹上行,既遭到空头主力的打压,今天亚洲电子早盘仍顽强红盘表现, 在上攻动能未衰竭前,我们继续保持低位酝酿拐点观点不变,后期关注上涨空间的大小(暂时定义为 弱势反弹)。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,在昨日红盘上涨之后,今天周五早盘期价也出现冲高回落走势,但在多头主力的顽强抵抗下,上午盘面以带下影线的小阴K线暂时收盘,表明多头主力仍未完全放弃反弹上攻欲望,我们继续短多看待。 马盘毛棕榈油基准10月(或9月),昨日周四盘面跳空高开高走的中阳K线上涨,令周二周三新空全部被套,今天周五早盘期价继续红盘表现,马来西亚最新公布的出口数据暂时利多棕榈市场(马棕榈7月份出口量高于6月份 出口增长),继续短多思维对待。 小结:全球植物油商品短线角度的超跌反弹走势延续中,虽然目前涨幅不大,但我们的短多观点继续保持不变,在反弹动能未出现衰竭信号前,前期多单继续谨慎持有。 对于马盘棕榈油来说——远月合约价格大于近月合约(正向市场),表明市场人士对于第四季度以及来年2019年的第一季度后市仍有看多情怀,仅仅是当前短线走势略微疲软,让我们耐心忍耐过去这段心态烦躁模糊时期,暂时短线操作为主。 [SUMMARY] • Global edible oils are in tailwind position despite low gain rate. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions before global edible oils lose its momentum. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.7.24日周二马盘棕榈油期价下挫幅度过大内盘油脂多头抵抗 昨日周一晚间,在连续几天反弹上涨之后,美大豆冲高回落的小阴K线表现。 美盘豆油12月合约周一为中阴K线。今天周二上午亚洲电子早盘又阴十字星走势,间接拖累内盘马盘油脂商品的周二表现,但我们继续保持中线下挫超跌之后的酝酿反弹拐点观点不变。 内盘期货市场受国家上周五开始的整治“污染减排”攻坚行动利多消息影响(河北唐山 邯郸 山西等地的炼焦 炼铁企业限产通知),内盘焦炭 螺纹钢 玻璃 等黑色商品大涨(包括PTA商品),内盘做多人气的聚集却没有传导到油脂商品身上。。。大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,昨日周一期价冲高回落带上影线,今天周二早盘期价勉强红十字星“抵抗”表现,多单继续谨慎持有。 马来西亚方面—–近期令吉特汇率反弹,对马盘棕榈油期价不利。而马来西亚棕榈油产量开始进入高峰季节也是困扰马盘棕榈油期价走高的另一原因。马盘棕榈油基准9月合约,昨日周一期价高开低走的长阴K线下跌,短线盘面多头人气仍比较涣散, 提醒我们,暂时把反弹上行走势以弱势反弹观点对待。 同时, 关注明日周三,马来西亚船运调查机构公布的7月份出口数据情况。 小结:油脂类商品短线走势“一波三折”,盘面缺少凌厉走势,短线多空主力均较为谨慎,各个品种成交量较为低迷, 在短线迷茫阶段—-我们继续保持低位的酝酿反弹观点不变。 操作上:前期多单继续持有,依旧把7月16日前低作为多单止损点,不破不止损(下破低点下方X点作为个人心理的止损位)。 [SUMMARY] • Global edible oils experienced low trading volume and weak momentum. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. • Traders may also continue to hold current positions if the market failed to break the support level. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.7.23日周一继续等待多头人气的聚集 美盘大豆上周5个交易日连续红盘反弹上涨,虽然盘中涨幅不大,但低位之后的短线反弹“拐点”已经露出痕迹。美盘豆油12月合约,在前期受利空情绪影响下跌之后,上周期价开始右侧横盘——短线盘中止跌企稳迹象也较为明显,我们对美盘油脂商品整体继续保持短线角度的酝酿反弹走势观点不变。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,今天周一早盘,期价曾一度高开高走的红盘上涨表现,由于后续盘口上拉动力不足,造成上午盘面出现冲高回落走势(出现上影线),目前多头主力信心仍略显不足,我们继续等待后市多头人气的聚集,暂时仍以短多的反弹观点对待。 马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,上周末时候,马盘棕榈油短线走势就出现情绪波动(周四 周五),今天周一盘面期价依然在2200令吉特整数关口受阻,今天高开低走的中阴K线,表明马盘棕榈上多空主力依旧在“奋力争夺”,多空分歧依旧很大,但我们短多观点继续保持不变。 小结:今天周一上午盘面,内盘 马盘油脂商品多头主力信心不足,期价在上拉过程中,一些不坚定多头份子出现逢高兑现减仓动作,造成期价出现“反复”, 在上周一(7月16日低点未被下破前),我们继续保持坚定的短多思维,不受盘面情绪干扰。 具体操作上: 上周初低位多单继续持有,以7.16日低点为多单止损点,继续保持反弹上行观点,不下破多单持仓不动,继续等待多头人气聚集。 [SUMMARY] • Tug-of-war between sellers and buyers happened in China and Malaysia edible oils. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. • Traders may also continue to hold current positions if the market failed to break the support level. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 July 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices decline to USD67 /barrel and hover at this region. Market has fallen as we expected due to firm Dollar. Nevertheless, the range is moving widely from USD67 – 74 /barrel and might swing sideways within this region in coming weeks. From now onwards, the Dollar has become a lead factor in observing the Crude trend among the mixed trading sentiment. Gold Gold prices have shown bargain-hunting below USD1220 /oz last week. The trend may be tight ranged in coming week from USD1220 – USD1250 /oz without high expectation. Generally, the yellow metal and energy commodities move in same trend now due to uncertainty of market instruments measured against Dollar movement. Risk control needs to be exercised if the Gold prices fall below USD1220 /oz again. Silver Silver prices broke the support of USD15.60 /oz last […]

American Claims Decline to 48-Year Low

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 23 July 2018 Fundamental Outlook The US retail sale and industrial production rise above expectation. Jobless claims decline to 48 years low despite housing number miss forecast. UK wanes in inflation indicators and probably influenced by Brexit policy. The US retail sales grew 0.5 percent in June and better than expectation. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 0.4 percent and matched forecast. Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in June, higher than expectation and versus minus 0.5 percent in May. American jobless claims at 207,000 in the week ended 14 July and lowest record since 1969. Another report on building permits grew 1.27 million in June while housing starts expanded 1.17 million. Both were below forecast. China’s GDP for Q2 seasons grew 6.7 percent in steady pace. Industrial production climbed 6.0 percent in June from a year ago and missed […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 20 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.7.20日周五马盘棕榈出现情绪波动 美盘大豆期价继续短线反弹上行中,一连串的小阳K线(5连阳),表明多头人气正在凝聚。 美盘豆油12月合约,期价不温不火的右侧开始横盘,虽然没有出现明显上涨的“长阳K线”,但短线也未再出现深幅度的下跌—–短线的止跌企稳迹象显露痕迹,我们对美盘油脂继续保持超跌之后的地位酝酿反弹“拐点”观点不变。 内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1809主力合约,本周5个交易日,5天红盘表现,虽然上涨幅度不大,但期价已经“拒绝”下跌,我们继续保持短多思维,后市短线关注内盘油脂商品在反弹上行走势中成交量上能否给予配合,只有成交量上来了,反弹阳K线的幅度才能扩大成果。 马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,本周三中阳K线跳空高开上涨,昨日周四盘面高开低走的中阴K线表现,今天周五期价又继续小阴K线走势—–马盘棕榈情绪上出现波动,多空主力对后市走势分歧依然较大,造成期价在2200令吉特一线波动徘徊,继续等待马盘棕榈多头人气的聚集。 小结: 全球植物油类商品超跌之后出现止跌企稳后的酝酿短线反弹走势雏形,截止目前整体涨幅不大,多头主力还是略显犹豫不决,成交量上也未大举反攻,但期价再继续下挫的空间也被封杀,我们继续保持酝酿短线反弹拐点观点不变。 具体操作上: 前期多单继续持有,把本周一的低点作为多单的止损位,不破就多单继续持有,继续等待反弹多头人气聚集。 [SUMMARY] Selling pressure for global vegetable oils ceased, buying momentum has yet to be seen. [ACTION] • Traders may set Monday’s low as latest support level. • If the market doesn’t break the support level, traders may continue to hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 19 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.7.19日周四油脂类商品短线多单谨慎持有 从本周一(7月16日)开始,美盘黄豆连期价翻红上涨,截止今天周四上午亚洲电子盘已经是“四连阳”,期价从830一线上涨到860一线,从理论成本上来说,美豆830美分已经击穿了美国大豆的种植成本区域,因此下方的下跌空间受到限制,这也是我们不再盲目看空很深的主要原因。 美豆油12月合约,昨日周三晚间出现了久违的阳K线,短线也出现了右侧止跌横盘迹象,我们对美盘油脂继续保持低位的酝酿反弹观点不变,继续关注后市短线的上涨幅度与力度。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,本周以来,期价出现小幅走高欲望,虽然目前涨幅不大,但盘中空头逢低减仓动作明显,因此本周初我们就建议早空头主力一步,先把空单平仓了结——继续关注内盘油脂在前低(6月19–20日)的技术支撑力度,同时关注“W型”双底是否演绎成功,内盘油脂单向多单暂时谨慎持有。 马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,昨日周三盘面期价高开高走,终盘中阳K线上涨报收,期价悄悄离开2150低位区域,今天期价围绕2200整数关口徘徊,超跌之后的短线“小拐点”痕迹显露出一丝丝苗头,我们继续短多思维对待。 小结:美豆当前生长优良率在70%左右,开花率在65%,结荚率在26%左右——美大豆各项生长数据明显高于往年同期水平,对今年天气炒作丰产的担忧情绪也是近期美大豆期价下跌的另一个原因(除了 中美贸易战恐慌情绪外),当美豆下跌到极限区域范围内。不排除出现反身走强的可能,因此上,我们本周初建议反手空单与锁仓空单率先平仓离场,剩余开锁多单与新进低位补仓多单谨慎持有—–这是我们目前最佳的思维操作模式,后市的关注焦点 我们转移到美盘油脂反身走强的力度与幅度大小上来,这对内盘马盘油脂商品会形成间接的提振作用。。。操作上:开锁多单与新进补仓多单继续谨慎持有。 [SUMMARY] • Better than expected soybean growth rate caused US soybean oil price dropped. [ACTION] • Trader may close current positions and initiate new positions. • Focus on possible rebound in US soybean oil. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe […]

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