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Monthly Archives: August, 2018

Global Vegoils Analysis – 30 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.8.30日周四油脂商品短线下挫态势的回落整理走势延续中 美盘黄豆连短线下挫态势依旧明显,在日K线图表上—–美大豆期价再次临近7月16日前低附近(826.25美分),当前正在考验前低的支撑效力,从理论上讲:7月16日的826.25存在一定技术支撑,关注美豆在该位置的后市表现。 美盘豆油12 月合约,近期期价未出现明显上涨,但也未出现明显的下跌——-基本处于一种横盘无序波动状态,在美豆油未出现明确的单边走势前,稳健型交易者继续场外观望。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周四盘面十字星K线震荡状态,盘中多空主力继续争夺—–但盘面的短线方向性不强,仅属于阴阳K线的右侧横盘波动, 这种状态迟早要被打破,让我们继续冷眼旁观。。。。另外,前几日建议在贱金属 建材 化工类商品—–螺纹钢 焦炭 玻璃 PTA 等品种上逢高放空的空单继续持有, 该类品种在前期大幅反弹上涨后当前出现了冲高回落走势。 马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,本周一突然跳下来,随后周二又跳上去,而周三 周四期价又右侧横盘——马盘毛棕榈油短线也处于一种“上下两难”的尴尬境界, 时间换取空间 的走势仍然在延续中,我们继续以静制动思维对待。 小结: 油脂类商品陷入犹豫徘徊的尴尬境界,短线期价变化不大,整体处于一种无序波动震荡走势当中,大周期角度上的低位区域整理酝酿走势在延续中, 在短线走势未出现明确方向性信号前,我们继续场外观望———-直至下挫整理走势完全结束时,我们再考虑逢低多单接盘,目前操作上继续保持观望态势,看9月份市场如何表现(只有明天最后一个交易日了)。 [SUMMARY] • Global edible oil remain volatile. [ACTION] • Conservative traders may wait and observe for better market entry to appear. • Aggressive traders may hold small amount of positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 29 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.8.29日周二油脂商品短线阴阳K线横盘波动延续中 美盘豆油12月合约,继周一阳K线上涨后,昨日周二晚间又阴K线下跌——-美豆油短线角度的 阴阳K线交错横盘无序波动震荡走势延续中,上涨不是好时机,而下跌下方空间又不大,估计短线这种下挫横盘整理走势仍要延续一段时间。 内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,短线走势追随美盘豆油走势——-日K线图表上“两阴夹一阳”的K线形态,表明内盘油脂短线上行也压力重重,不排除期价出现走低可能。。。。但下方空间不会太大, 后期逢低点接盘多单仍是我们主要思路。 马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,昨日周二阳K线跳空上涨,把周一那颗小阴K线丢弃在下面(存在 单日的“岛型反转”痕迹雏形 令周一当天低位追空的交易者完全被套), 但今天期价却也没有延续昨天的上涨,表明马盘棕榈油短线也处于犹豫徘徊状态,多头主力未完全发力。 小结: 油脂类商品短线阴阳K线横盘波动状态延续中,短线盘中走势无新意,不能够形成单边趋势性行情, 建议稳健型交易者继续场外观望,待下方回落空间探明后再进场接盘多单不迟, 而部分激进型交易者手中少量试盘多单继续持有(仓单少 略微的期价小幅波动暂时忽略),当前时机暂时不利于多头发力,当后市下挫整理完全结束后我们再低位补仓。 [SUMMARY] • Global edible oil traded sideways, remain volatile. [ACTION] • Conservative traders may wait and observe for better market entry to appear. • Aggressive traders may hold small amount of positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 28 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.8.28日周二美盘豆油昨日晚间未追随内盘油脂期价走低 美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间中阳K线红盘上涨,期价未追随昨日内盘期价走低—–美豆油整体还呈现短线角度的横盘波动整理状态,在这种横盘僵局没有被打破之前,我们继续冷眼旁观,以静制动关注盘面是否出现新变化,暂不盲目盘中乱操作。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,昨日周一早盘期价低开低走下跌,盘中多头人气有所涣散,空头主力借机可以打压,多头主力措手不及慌乱一团,终盘时候豆油棕榈油双双中阴K线收盘。今天周二早盘期价低开高走(见美盘豆油未跟跌),又阳K线上涨表现——-内盘多空主力暂时“拉锯战”争斗中, 我们不为盘面瞬间的情绪波动所干扰,稳健型交易者继续场外观望,激进型少量试盘多单继续持有,由于持仓量较小,暂时忽略盘面的微小变化。 马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,昨日周一为跳空的小阴K线下跌,瞬间的向下跳空缺口一度令人紧张——-但今天周二早盘,期价有跳空高开高走,马棕榈近期短线的无序波动震荡走势延续中, 忽上忽下的跳跃式运行令短线操作研判难度增大,我们继续以平静心态对待当前短线市场,尽量不被瞬间的情绪波动所干扰到。 小结:美盘豆油继续横盘波动状态,内盘昨日突然的杀跌动作“虚晃一枪”,真真假假在迷惑散户朋友。 马盘棕榈油今天期价跳空高开上涨阳K线表现——形成一阳包多阴走势,关注马盘棕榈后续持续动作能否得以延续? 操作上: 稳健型交易者场外喝茶观望, 激进型交易者手中少量多单继续持有, 静观市场上下忽悠 不为所动。 [SUMMARY] • China soybean oil rebounded, but may wait and hold for clearer market direction. • Malaysia palm oil gapped-up and rallied, traders may hold and observe the continuity of the rally before initiate any positions. [ACTION] • Conservative traders may wait and observe for better market entry to appear. • Aggressive traders may hold small amount of positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 27 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.8.27日周一谈判破裂—–悲观情绪下油脂商品下跌 让我们笼统回忆下2018年开始的中美贸易摩擦——-在3月份美国宣布对中国钢铁 铝材征收25%关税,在7月6日对中国340亿美元征收25%关税,就在前几天的8月24日又对160亿中国商品征收25%关税。特朗普老头还恐吓,将在9月份对中国2000亿商品再征收25%关税。。。哇 这是往死里下狠手啊! 兔子急了还咬人,中国方面也寸土不让,同样给予对进口于美国的同样数量商品征收关税———中美贸易战愈演愈烈,极大的伤害了全球经济,特别是金融市场分析人士的信心。 美盘大豆这几天再度闻利空期价下跌 (又靠近850美分),随远隔万里我们也能深深感觉到美豆农内心中那份无奈。 美盘豆油12月合约,上周五晚间勉强红盘收盘,期价延续横盘波动状态。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周一早盘期价出现异动,多头主力在坚挺了一周时间的抵抗后,今天周一终于失去了信心,早盘期价低开低走中阴K线下跌表现,油脂市场再度被利空情绪所包围。 马来西亚棕榈油市场虽然不在中美贸易战的主战场——但同样间接性受到干扰,今天周一早盘,马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,期价追随性低开,截止上午盘面,暂时呈现低开高走的小阳K线, 内盘油脂市场的悲观情绪也不经意间蔓延到马盘棕榈油市场(棕榈油 豆油 互相竞争市场份额 二者的替代作用 永远是一根线上的两只蚂蚱)。 小结:今天内盘油脂商品率先出现期价下挫迹象,盘面短线走势再度疲软,间接传导到马盘棕榈,虽然美豆油尚未出现多大变化,但内盘油脂商品的下跌走势还是比较明显。 操作上:稳健型交易继续场外观望, 部分少量激进型交易者手中的接盘多单被套后(单量一点点),暂时不必恐慌止损减仓,注意关注一下美盘是否追随内盘同样走低, 短线下挫整理不怕,只要下方回落空间不是很大,我们届时还会在更低位多单补仓(短线看下挫整理 中长线继续以低位区域酝酿拐点观点不变—-短空长多)。 [SUMMARY] • China soybean oil routed and spill-over to Malaysia palm oil. [ACTION] • Conservative traders may wait and observe for better market entry to appear. • Aggressive traders may hold small amount of positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, […]

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Soar to New High

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 27 August 2018 Fundamental Outlook The US housing data rise below forecast. Technology stocks soar to new historical high. President Trump faces challenge of being impeached after two former advisors are found guilty. British net borrowing by government sectors decline. The US existing home sales rose 5.34 million in July and lower than forecast and previous month. Another report on new home sale grew 627 million in July, lowest in 5 months and below forecast. The US order for durable goods slid 1.7 percent in July and worse than expectation. Excluding transport equipment, core order rose 0.2 percent and missed the forecast. On Friday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Index closed at record high as Netflix jumped. President Trump says the Government is planning to implement 25 percent tariffs on all car imports from European Union. He also expresses disagreement […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 27 August 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices rose after the sanction on Iran began to cloud market sentiment. Saudi Arabia denies scrapping IPO plan and helps to lift Crude trend. This week, we forecast the trend might top USD70 /barrel in-lieu of supply shortage. Support will emerge at USD66 /barrel in case of drawdown. Beware of breakout on surging trend due to fundamental changes on supply squeeze in market. Gold Gold prices made technical recovery last week and closed above USD1200 /oz level. This week, we forecast the resistance lies at USD1215 /oz in case of continual ascension. The market will probably trade in tight range while downside support emerges s at USD1285 /oz. in our opinion, we presume Gold prices will be stagnated due to liquidity rush into technology stocks. Dollar remains as lead catalyst for affecting the yellow metal on […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.8.23日周四油脂商品中长线大周期角度我们依旧看好未来第四季度与来年第一季度的市场表现 中美新一轮贸易谈判即将重启,这引起部分油脂商品分析人士的关注,但由于中美高层双方的政治诉求分歧太大——表面看似一种“经济手段”,其实背后隐藏着很深的“政治目的”,因此指望短期的几次谈判就能缓解这种矛盾也是不现实的。。。市场人士大都也明白这层含义,因此上对本次中美谈判也就没指望有什么实质性进展。另外美国当前大豆种植区出现降雨,天气情况有利于大豆作物的生长,对未来大豆作物丰收预期也是困扰植物油市场的另一个因素。。。这也就造成美盘大豆短线角度“欲涨还跌”的尴尬局面, 美盘豆油12月合约昨日晚间期价阴K线下跌,期价暂时受阻于40天平均线位置,美盘油脂仍在纠结彷徨情绪中短线无序波动震荡中。 随着天气逐渐变凉,中国大陆后期将迎来“中秋”“国庆”节日的第四季度消费高峰期——-消费市场提前一个月备货行动开始纳入日程,由于当前豆粕市场期价略有下跌,因此各大油厂挺豆油期价的意愿强烈(油粕比的跷跷板作用),这也是内盘豆油1901主力合约本周连续四天期价右侧横盘波动的原因——虽然未出现盘面上涨,但期价也拒绝深度回调。 内盘棕榈油1901主力合约,当前期价在日K线图表上的60天均线上方运行,也呈现一种无序波动状态———–内盘油脂商品整体存在一种蠢蠢欲动的向上态势,但是,市场“有心无力”的僵局还需新的动能把僵局打破。。。。随时时间推移,后市油脂商品的“去库存”局面更为明朗后,油脂商品的“春天”相信会马上到来。 马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在昨日公共假期停盘过后,今天周四早盘开盘交易,上午盘面成交依旧清淡,市场以小的十字星阴K线表现,在内盘 美盘油脂商品没有出现大的动作之前,马盘棕榈油仍然“以时间换空间”方式运行,短线盘面走势无新意,一种消磨时光的观望情绪仍在市场蔓延。 小结:无论新一轮贸易谈谈是否取得实质性进展,对植物油市场都将起到支撑提振作用,特别是对内盘豆油品种,因此整体油脂商品下方回落空间依旧有限,从中长线角度来说,逢回调进多仍是我们主流思维,仅仅是短线角度的各种纠结情绪对当前市场存在不利影响,我们仍然建议稳健型交易者暂时场外观望,部分激进型交易者手中少量(一点点)多单继续谨慎持有,耐心等待8月末后期消息面的进一步明朗。 [SUMMARY] • Any progress from the discussion of trade war on Wednesday lend support for global edible oils. [ACTION] • Conservative traders may wait and observe any catalysts during month-end. • Aggressive traders may hold small amount of positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 21 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.8.21日周二据消息传闻中美新一轮贸易谈判将在下周重启 当前美国大豆生长情况为结荚率91%,5年均值为85%,豆农对美大豆丰收预期强烈。。。通常来说美国 中国的新季大豆收获季节在9–10月份(巴西新豆种植时间在9月份),也就是说—–当前时节应该属于最“青黄不接”时刻(新豆未上市 去年旧豆销售殆尽),据中国海关数据,中国上周未进口一颗美国大豆。。。另据可靠消息:在8月末的未来几天—–中美贸易摩擦谈判将重启,市场人士表示关注,但恐对谈判结果不报良好预期。。。在这种尴尬境界下,美豆 美豆油短线走势纠结,这也是困扰美国油脂市场主要因素,今年油脂市场行情最难做——–下挫 徘徊 低位无序震荡成为主流。对美盘豆油我们继续保持“跌无可跌”之后的低位酝酿拐点观点不变。短线角度来说—–我们继续关注美豆在60天均线位置的具体表现(昨晚期价暂时小阴K线受阻)。 大陆内盘期货市场—–前段时间黑色贱金属(包括建材类 以及化工类PTA)表现耀眼,成为主流资金的追捧对象,螺纹钢 铁矿石 焦炭 玻璃 PTA均发动了一波反弹上扬行情(人民币贬值 部分小盘商品期价走高)。。。而我们所关心的油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,却依旧不温不火的无序波动震荡,市场成交清淡,逐步被主流资金所“遗忘”,因此从这个角度来说,今年内盘油脂商品非常难操作。。。(内盘交易者手中无油脂仓单交易者 可适量资金逢高短空贱金属 包括PTA 这类品种上涨幅度过大,存在获利盘涌出的冲高回落可能 操作时候尽量选择远期合约)。 马盘毛棕榈油基准11月(或10月),当前期价更是在大低位区域内无序横盘波动,阴阳小十字星的市场冷清表现,令散户操作者无所是从———马盘棕榈油当前出口数据不佳,产量高峰季节来临以及中美贸易战的不确定性 三大情绪困扰着整个市场,令棕榈油的替代豆油效应被市场暂时忽略,我们对未来第四季度以后的市场良好预期是我们中长线角度的唯一精神支柱,暂时对短线角度的无序震荡给予冷眼旁观。 小结:全球油脂市场短线角度走势“忽上忽下 飘忽不定”,市场操作难度增大,对于当前时期油脂市场——稳健型交易者可场外观望,关注美豆60天均线是否能技术上破。 而部分激进型散户朋友可少量多单谨慎持有,后市短线仍有横盘波动之后的短线反弹可能。 [SUMMARY] • Global edible oils market direction remain volatile and unclear. [ACTION] • Conservative traders may wait and observe the possibility of breakout for 60 moving average. • Aggressive traders may hold small amount of positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 20 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.8.20日周一美盘黄豆连反身上行挑战8月10日的阴K线高点 美盘大豆上周末阳K线收盘,今天周一亚洲电子盘又红盘表现——当前期价已经临近8月10日那根长阴K线的高点位置(903.75位置),该位置也是日K线图表上的60天均线附近(908.00),从美豆错列上行阳K线观察,存在调整结束后的“反身上行”嫌疑。。。。 美盘豆油12月合约,也追随性阳K线反身走高,前期我们说过——美盘油脂短暂的回落整理,在下挫深度上我们不看很深,而从上周四 周五两天的红盘阳K线错列上行,大有下挫调整结束的含义,这点要引起我们散户朋友的警惕。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,上周为抵抗性回落整理,并且整理的时间很短暂,从今天周一盘面观察——也出现了“悄悄走强”迹象,这种新的“变盘”信号提醒我们需要谨慎,我们今天周一建议:前期反手空单可考虑止损离场。 马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,今天周一表现为跳空高开的阴K线——-一个小小的向上跳跃动作,也暴漏出马盘棕榈油拒绝深度回调,虽然今天上午盘面未出现红盘上涨,但考虑到美盘 内盘油脂商品的异常动作,我们也建议前期空单平仓离场。 小结:美盘油脂商品出现“异动”,存在回落整理结束的信号嫌疑,我们为了谨慎起见——建议今天内盘 马盘油脂商品上的短线空单止盈 止损全部平仓离场,谨防植物油市场新的反身上行动作发生。 并且部分激进型散户朋友,可追随市场新的变化—–可少量反手多单进场接盘,后市期价存在反身后的走高可能。。。。让我们关注美盘大豆 豆油今日晚间是否能“上冲”60天的阻挡。 美盘大豆上周末阳K线收盘,今天周一亚洲电子盘又红盘表现——当前期价已经临近8月10日那根长阴K线的高点位置(903.75位置),该位置也是日K线图表上的60天均线附近(908.00),从美豆错列上行阳K线观察,存在调整结束后的“反身上行”嫌疑。。。。 美盘豆油12月合约,也追随性阳K线反身走高,前期我们说过——美盘油脂短暂的回落整理,在下挫深度上我们不看很深,而从上周四 周五两天的红盘阳K线错列上行,大有下挫调整结束的含义,这点要引起我们散户朋友的警惕。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,上周为抵抗性回落整理,并且整理的时间很短暂,从今天周一盘面观察——也出现了“悄悄走强”迹象,这种新的“变盘”信号提醒我们需要谨慎,我们今天周一建议:前期反手空单可考虑止损离场。 马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,今天周一表现为跳空高开的阴K线——-一个小小的向上跳跃动作,也暴漏出马盘棕榈油拒绝深度回调,虽然今天上午盘面未出现红盘上涨,但考虑到美盘 内盘油脂商品的异常动作,我们也建议前期空单平仓离场。 小结:美盘油脂商品出现“异动”,存在回落整理结束的信号嫌疑,我们为了谨慎起见——建议今天内盘 马盘油脂商品上的短线空单止盈 止损全部平仓离场,谨防植物油市场新的反身上行动作发生。 并且部分激进型散户朋友,可追随市场新的变化—–可少量反手多单进场接盘,后市期价存在反身后的走高可能。。。。让我们关注美盘大豆 豆油今日晚间是否能“上冲”60天的阻挡。 [SUMMARY] • Global edible oils showed sign of rebound soon. [ACTION] • Traders may close current positions. • Aggressive traders may initiate long positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position […]

American Housing Data Slows Down

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 20 August 2018 Fundamental Outlook The US retail sales increase while housing data slows down. Eurozone expands in growth and consumer prices match forecast. UK consumer prices excel amid gradual slowdown in retail sales expansion. The US retail sales grew 0.5 percent in July and better than consensus. Excluding transport equipment, core retail sales also rose 0.6 percent and higher than forecast and above previous month at revised 0.2 percent gains. The US building permit rose 1.31 million in July and stagnated. Another report on housing starts grew 1.17 million and below forecast. China’s industrial production including utilities and mines, rose 6.0 percent in July from a year ago, unchanged from previous month but below forecast. Another report on fixed asset investment grew at 5.5 percent in July on year-to-date compilation, lowest since the data began its monthly release. […]

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