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Monthly Archives: September, 2018

Global Vegoils Analysis – 28 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.9.28日周五美盘豆油反弹上涨延续中马盘棕榈油因库存增加期价出现下跌 美盘豆油昨日周四晚间继续中阳红盘上涨,这已经是“七连阳”反弹上行,当前期价已经站上60天均线上方——后期短线随着期价的不断走高,会拉动下方的短期均线(5 10 20日均线平均价格)上穿长期均线(40 60日平均价格),则会形成“金叉”向上走势。。。对美豆油后市短线走势的预估轨迹应该是: 1.首先期价快速拔高,从而拉动下方均线上穿;2. 当期价快速上冲过猛后,期价会短暂回落下方均线确认一下(那时 短期均线已经上穿长期均线 形成了由原来的空头排列 悄悄转变为多头排列的雏形)。。。当前我们最为关注的是美豆油12月合约,期价在上冲反弹的持续性如何?(因为前期美豆油期价只是短暂站上60天均线就掉头向下),这是下周我们最为关心的地方。 大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,由于内盘油脂临近“国庆”长假期(7天),今天是假期前最后一个交易日。 内盘豆油多头主力仍在顽强抵抗中等待美盘豆油短线走势的指引。 内盘棕榈油略微稍弱,受马盘棕榈油下跌心理影响较重,内盘油强棕弱盘面特征较明显。 马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11月),由于受马来西亚最新报告库存增加利空情绪影响,以及当前马棕榈仍处于产量高峰大周期内(9 10 11月)双重因素, 马盘棕榈油短线走势较弱——周三 周四连续两天中阴K线下跌,马盘棕榈油需要密切关注9月20日低点的技术支撑力度。 小结:美盘豆油当前短线反弹上行走势非常明显,但出于对该走势的“持续性”,市场还是存在严重分歧,因此造成当前三地油脂商品短线走势上出现“分化”——–美豆油强力上攻, 内盘豆油抵抗性横盘等待观望, 内盘 马盘棕榈油下挫消化利空负面影响。。。由此可以看出,当前多空主力对后市走势分歧较大, 我们只好暂且以美盘豆油为主流风向标,继续以谨慎的短多思维对待。操作上:开锁后的单向多单继续持有,关注美豆油在内盘假期期间的具体表现。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil continue to rally while Malaysia and China edible oils faced resistances. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions and continue to monitor next market movement from US soybean oil. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 27 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.9.27日周四生不逢时内盘油脂又临近“10.1国庆”长假 美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间继续小阳K线红盘上涨, 六连阳的K线上行态势,表明美豆油反身上行动作延续中,当期价站上60天均线后,势必盘中会出现多空主力来争夺该“阵地”,期价适当反复一下也是正常, 只要盘面反弹上行动能不出现衰竭信号前,我们继续短多思维对待。 内盘豆粕本周发力上涨, 内盘油脂豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约涨幅较小,在昨日周三阳K线之后,今天周四早盘盘面略显迟疑,多头主力未继续发力。 考虑到内盘又临近十一国庆长假(10.1日—-10月7日 七天假期), 10月8日才开盘交易, 在长假前部分交易者调整仓位,盘面出现期价反复也较为正常。 马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11月),今天周四上午盘面暂时呈现十字星表现,盘面成交也较为清淡,多空主力较为谨慎,盘面上未出现明显大动作。 小结:美盘豆油短线的反身上行延续中,期价正临近60天均线关键技术位置,上攻成功与否?——-这会对后市 内盘 马盘油脂商品带来较强的心理影响, 在美盘豆油多空争夺未出结果前——-内盘马盘油脂商品暂时止步徘徊等待。。。。恰恰在这个关口时候,内盘又临近长假期,不排除部分交易者会减持仓位来规避长假期间不确定因素所带来的市场风险,这也是我们心理上较为难取舍的地方(一般情况下 我们在各类长假期间 都是不建议重仓过节)。 具体操作:今天是内盘长假期前倒数第二个交易日(明天周五为最后一个交易日),稳健型交易者可适量减减仓单(仓重者减),仓轻者可多单继续持有——-我们对美盘豆油仍抱有谨慎的反弹上行观点, 在美豆油未出现明显变盘信号前,我们仍保持短多思维不变。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil retesting 60 days moving average, injected strong confidence in China and Malaysia edible oils. • No further action in China and Malaysia edible oils, both markets awaiting possible breakout result from US soybean oil. • Upcoming National Day in China may tempt traders to reduce positions to avoid unnecessary market risks. [ACTION] • Conservative traders who are holding lots of positions may close certain amount of positions. • Those who are holding less positions may continue to hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.9.26日周三美盘豆油“5连阳”反身上涨 美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间继续红盘小阳K线表现,不经意间已经是5连阳上涨表现,当前期价已经悄悄站上日K线图表60天均线的上方(28.50一线), 而原来空头排列的均线系统,下方的短期均线正在准备“上穿”, 是否能“金叉上穿”成功——-是我们本周所关注的焦点,在反身动能未衰竭前,我们继续短多思维对待。 大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,昨日周二为中秋节假期过后的第一个交易日,早盘期价小幅高开走强,特别是内盘豆油1901合约,全日期价震荡走高(棕榈油十字星),今天周三上午盘面,期价继续红盘上涨表现,内盘豆油已经是错列的2连阳上涨态势,反身动作略微明显起来。 马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11),本周一率先十字星高开,本周二又红盘小阳K线表现,今天周三暂时十字星表现——马盘棕榈油短线期价也同样出现“反身走强”迹象苗头,上周补跌的疲软态势被稍微扭转, 关注后市短线发力走强的持续性能否得到延续。 小结:关于美盘油脂商品,我们很早就下结论——-在期价跌破7月中旬前低之后,我们就判断为“不破不立”的短暂下破,下方空间不会很大。。。。倒是内盘 马盘油脂商品出现出了几天令人意外的恐慌性“补跌”局面,盘中出现猛烈的急挫补跌现象, 还好我们是多空仓单锁仓操作,暂时规避了短线风险。 在美盘豆油出现反身动作之后,我们上周五跟昨天建议逢低部分空单平仓离场解锁,今天未解锁干净的交易者,继续空单平仓出场。其中, 部分激进型交易者还可以适量低位多单加仓,来摊低一下我们空单离场后 ,手中剩余裸仓多单的持仓成本,后市短线我们以谨慎短多观点对待, 密切关注后市短线反弹上行的持续性。 [SUMMARY] • China and Malaysia edible oils showed sign of plunge while US soybean oil rebounded. [ACTION] • Aggressive traders may initiate small amount of long positions. • Traders may continue to close current short positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 25 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.9.25日周二部分激进型稳健型交易者空单适量减持多空开锁操作逐步展开 进入到9月末,美国大豆临近收割月,据最新消息,当前美国大豆收割率为14%,后期大面积收获将逐步展开。。。美盘豆油12月合约,从上周9月19日开始,已经连续“四连阳”红盘上涨,短线盘面的“反身上行”走势较为明显,当前期价已经反弹至日K线图表上60天均线位置,若该位置被向上突破,则存在继续反弹空间。 经过3天“中秋节”小假期,大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周二开盘交易,今天早盘期价跳空高开小阳K线上涨表现,上周末的惯性下跌信号被扭转,继续关注本周初开始,是否会演变成“反身”上行走势。 马盘棕榈油基准12月合约(或11月),昨日周一,期价高开十字星表现,比内盘油脂提前一个交易日出现反身动作,考虑到周边外围植物油市场出现期价走高,马盘前期的疲软走低态势也许将被扭转,不排除马棕榈今天红盘上涨表现(当前马盘棕榈油尚未开盘)。 小结: 美盘豆油出现反身上涨动作, 短线走势上符合我们上周末时候的心理预期。 内盘油脂经过3天假期,今天开盘后红盘表现,这将提振马盘棕榈油今天周二的盘面表现,后市短线存在超跌之后的反弹走势可能,我们继续关注本周的市场表现。具体操作上: 在上周五时候,我们建议部分激进型交易者可以逢低部分空单减仓操作(美盘豆油当时率先出现短线走强), 在内盘假期期价,美盘豆油仍继续走强,因此上我们今天建议,原先多空对锁的仓单今天继续减持空单,用2天时间(今天 明天)空单减持完毕,后市油脂商品存在反弹上涨可能, 若美盘豆油上冲过60天均线的技术阻挡,我们还可以进一步的反手多单补仓操作。。。。今天稳健型交易者暂时先把对锁仓单中的空单了结一部分,形成多单多 空单少的“开锁”局面,继续关注后市短线的反弹上行的持续性。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil drifted higher, alongside with China edible oils which also lifted Malaysia palm oil on Tuesday. [ACTION] • Aggressive traders may close certain short positions within 2 days. • If US soybean oil manages to break above 60 days moving average, traders may consider to initiate new long positions. • Conservative traders may also close certain short positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and […]

Happy Mid Autumn Festival 2018

To those who celebrate the occasion, we would like to wish you a very Happy Mid Autumn Festival.

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 24 Sep 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices climbed slightly higher last week while poising around USD70 /barrel. On weekend, OPEC and Crude producers met on Algeria to discuss on production cut. President Trump chided them of attempt to push oil prices higher and stiffened the situation. This week, we reckon the trend will stay unchanged in tight range movement from USD67 – USD72 /barrel. Fundamentally, the Dollar direction after the FOMC meeting will be crucial to oil prices. Gold Gold prices have been trading in sideways trend as we forecast. Small buying demand is seen due to the gradual falling of Dollar Index (USDX) but majority interest still prefers to watch the FOMC outcome on this Thursday. Technically, we adopt no change in our market view that initial range will stay within USD1190 – 1210 /oz region. The next target on either […]

Britain Sets to Leave EU in 2019

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 24 September 2018 Fundamental Outlook The US slaps trade tariff on China and threaten to add more tension into market. Dow Jones closes at record high as traders push the major stocks higher. China reduces in US Treasuries holding. UK is set to leave EU in April 2019 despite the country is at impasse with EU now. The US housing starts grew 1.28 million in August and highest in 3 months. Another report on building permits rose at slower pace at 1.23 million comparing to revised 1.30 million in July. The US existing home sale grew 5.34 million in August and matched forecast. Jobless claims fall to near 49-year low record when the data clocked 201,000 for the week ended 22 September. The US President Trump imposes 10 percent tariff on USD200 billion worth of Chinese goods and threatens […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 21 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.9.21日周五内外盘短线走势出现分化 美盘黄豆连昨日周四晚间中阳K线上涨表现,在周三低开高走的“阳包阴”K线上涨之后——已经形成两根错列上行的中阳K线,美大豆短暂下破前低之后的反身上行走势出现苗头。 美豆油12月合约,昨日晚间期价也呈现中阳K线上涨,虽然盘面上带上行影线,但也出现错列反身动作的“雏形”——–美盘油脂商品经过前期震荡下挫之后,虽说期价下破前低,但在技术下破之后,盘面未见任何恐慌情绪,反而是这两天期价又出现反身走强动作, 我们此前预测的“不破不立”有可能转为现实,美盘油脂的细微变化要引起我们的谨慎,继续关注下周短线这种反身上行走势是否能得到延续,对于美盘油脂商品此前的短空思维,我们从今天开始需要变的警惕起来(反身上行概率增加)。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,本周几个交易日,期价下跌幅度较大,特别是棕榈油1901合约,期价已经四连阴表现,盘中急挫加速补跌迹象明显,内盘的恐慌情绪还在蔓延中。 马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11),本周连续三连阴下跌(本周一停盘了一天 少了一天),短线走势与内盘棕榈油短线走势相似,盘面也呈现加速赶底走势, 今天周五上午盘面暂时小阳K线表现,真正的止跌信号还不是百分百明确。 小结: 在前期美盘油脂震荡小幅下挫走势时候,内盘马盘油脂商品是抵抗性追随,盘面期价尚未出现大的下跌, 但当美盘油脂下破前低之后,内盘 马盘油脂商品的恐慌情绪却开始显露,期价出现大幅度“补跌”,截止到本周末,当美盘油脂出现“反身”上行动作“雏形”之后,内盘马盘油脂商品却不为所动,仍处于下挫态势————–内外盘短线走势出现了令人不解的奇妙分化走势,这点要引起我们散户朋友的警惕。 。。相信这种分化走势不会持续太久,操作上: 考虑到美盘油脂已经出现反身上行动作,部分内盘 马盘激进型交易者可于今日适量的空单逢低减仓(但不必全部减完),谨防美盘油脂下周后市短线继续上冲。 而稳健型交易者继续多空对锁仓单持有,不见内盘 马盘出现明显的止跌信号空单不离场,待内盘下周“中秋节”假期回来,行情走势明朗后再开锁不迟(内盘下周25号 周二开盘交易)。 [SUMMARY] • US soybean oil shown potential sign of rebound but China and Malaysia soybean oil did not follow suit. [ACTION] • Aggressive traders may close certain short positions and take cautious of sudden bullish reversal of US soybean oil. • Until further movement from China and Malaysia edible oils, conservative traders may continue to hold current short positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 20 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.9.20日周四内盘马盘油脂商品扩大下跌幅度 美盘黄豆连昨日晚间中阳K线上涨表现——-在本周一时候下破7月16日的前低之后,在前低下方只维持了2天时间就出现了阳K线上涨,并且是“阳包阴”K线走势,说明美盘大豆经过前期下跌之后,再继续下跌的意愿并不强烈。 美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周三晚间为带下影线的小阳K线,说明下影线的低点位置也有多头力量支持,后市美盘油脂下挫空间我们依旧不看很大。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,本周二 三 四,3天时间下挫幅度扩大,盘中出现急跌现象, 特别是内盘棕榈油品种,3天时间出现下挫加速迹象, 盘中恐慌情绪浓厚,空头力量发挥威力。 马盘毛棕榈油基准12(或11月),本周二假期回来后,马盘棕榈油呈现跳空直线下跌,期价下跌幅度猛烈,盘面空头打压盘与多头止损出逃盘是造成当前盘面的主要动力来源, 我们前期多空对锁仓单继续持有。 小结:美盘油脂下破前低之后,昨日晚间阳K线表现,盘面未见任何恐慌情绪。。。。但内盘 马盘油脂商品却表现不同,盘面上出现“补跌”急挫迹象, 多亏我们持有的是多亏对锁仓单,暂时规避了这种恐慌情绪。 考虑到大陆内盘即将临近“中秋节”长假(24日 下周一),该日子也是美国特朗普将对中国2000亿商品征收关税的日子, 为规避风险——我们建议: 内盘 马盘 多空对锁仓单继续持有, 待假期回来后,我们再找机会“开锁”操作,再暂时规避一下假期不确定因素风险。 [SUMMARY] • Market’s sentiment remains calm after US soybean oil routed on yesterday trading day. • China and Malaysia edible oil followed the footsteps of US soybean oil. [ACTION] • Traders may initiate short positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 19 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.9.19日周三美国特朗普昨日宣布对中国2000亿美元商品征收关税 中美贸易战升级——昨日周二,美国总统特朗普宣布,将对来自中国价值2000亿美元的商品征收10%关税,将在下周9月24日开始实施,并在2019年1月1日起上升至25%。 此前,美国政府已经对中国500亿产品征收了关税,这进一步表明中美贸易战正处于逐步升级状态,中方的反制措施也恐要马上公布(估计该针对美国飞机制造业了)。。。。中美剑拔弩张的紧张局势给全球经济带来极大的伤害。 作为贸易战影响最直接的油脂商品来说:美国大豆出口中国大门已经关闭,新一轮征收关税,对美国原本已经很疲软的大豆 豆油造成进一步心理压力。 昨日周二晚间,美黄豆连闻利空消息期价再度阴K线下跌,美盘豆油12月合约期价也追随性继续走软,美盘油脂市场短线角度破位之后的下挫走势延续中, 我们继续关注下方回落空间大小。 中国方面:在9月9日—9月10日凌晨,中国北方出现大范围降温,特别是黑龙江西北部地区出现了“低温霜冻”天气,对该区域大豆生长造成了影响,估计低温霜冻面积达到1478.5万亩,约占全省大豆播种面积的29.9%,产量损失预计为5.5亿斤,这将导致中国第四季度的大豆供应更趋于紧张。。。。后市,各大油厂“无米下锅”可能会越演越烈。 对短线来说——美盘油脂的持续走低,严重影响到内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约的走势,昨日内盘豆油 棕榈油双双下跌,多头抵抗信心破灭,盘面空头力量增强,特别是内盘棕榈油1901合约昨日长阴K线下跌表现, 短线的增仓下行——为空头主力主动进场打压, 内盘油脂商品短线的下挫走势开始明显。 马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,假期过后,昨日周二跳空低开开盘,盘面特征是“减仓下行”——这为多头止损逃跑盘口语言,造成昨日期价低开低走的中阴K线下跌。 今天周三早盘,期价再度低开低走,瞬间跌破7月25日前低的2157令吉特,盘面恐慌情绪再现,我们短线的多空对锁仓单继续持有。 小结:中美贸易战升级到极致,对全球经济增长减弱的担忧情绪蔓延到油脂商品上来,内盘 马盘油脂商品昨日今天两日期价下跌幅度较大,多头恐慌性止损出逃,空头趁机进场打压成为短线走势盘面特征———–由于我们此前早早就建议,多空锁单操作,暂时规避了政策性利空带来的无情伤害,操作上: 我们对锁仓单继续持有,一轮恐慌急跌之后,我们耐心等待空单逢低平仓离场机会的把握,继续关注美盘油脂下探寻支撑的空间大小。 [SUMMARY] • Trade war between US and China have a significant spill over effect towards global edible oils. • Currently, the bears gained the upper hand over the bulls in China and Malaysia edible oils. [ACTION] • Traders may initiate short positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative […]

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