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Monthly Archives: November, 2018

Global Vegoils Analysis – 30 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.11.30日周五棕榈油品种本周宽幅震荡 截止到本月底,美国大豆收割工作基本接近尾声阶段,当前美国农户大量的新豆堆积如山,美国豆农正在等待中美两国最高领导人今天在阿根廷的晚宴结果。。。中美经济贸易后续如何发展? 贸易争端是否会缓和?中美联合公报是会否出现可喜的新消息? 未来几天就明朗了。 下周初美盘 大豆 豆油就会做出相应的反应。 内盘油脂商品豆油1901主力合约,近期短线横盘蛰伏不动,期价变化不大。 内盘棕榈油1901主力合约,本周先抑后扬,期价出现大幅震荡,盘面受马盘棕榈油走势影响明显。 马盘毛棕榈油基准2月(或1月),本周一受印度尼西亚下调出口关税利空消息影响,期价周一时候一根长阴k线突然暴跌,随后四天又四连阳红盘上涨收复失地——-这与马来西亚最新政策 B10生物柴油掺混政策执行分不开,马来西亚政府将于12月1号开始执行,这大大利多马盘棕榈油——-其实我们早早就曾提到过,这一潜在利多基本面一直被市场所忽略, 当前印尼执行的是B20项目, 20%的掺混比, 泰国也宣布2019年开始也执行B10项目。 小结: 中美贸易争端疑云仍然笼罩油脂市场——特朗普与习近平今日西餐晚宴结果就显得非常重要。。。。印度尼西亚 马来西亚两国政府本周的两大新政策 公布,又严重影响到棕榈油市场的敏感神经——– 全球油脂商品在动荡不安中度过本周, 下周初油脂商品市场肯定还会h风云再起”,短线油脂商品的期价剧烈波动恐难避免, 我们散户朋友能做的只有冷眼旁观,暂且不盲目追随。 具体操作上: 前期新老多单谨慎持有,等待下周一市场消息面的具体结果。 [SUMMARY] • U.S. trade war still looming global edible oils. • New policy from Indonesia and Malaysia’s government affected palm oil industry. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 26 Nov 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices slid further last week and has created panic market sentiment after drawdown of 30 percent shortly over 7 weeks. Market landed at USD50 /barrel before the weekend and open-interest in Futures market is still recorded high. This week, we expect the trend to test USD48 – USD49 /barrel before short-covering arises. Overall range will be forecast from USD48 – USD54 /barrel as prices will recover ahead of OPEC meeting. Gold Gold prices were strongly resisted at USD1230 /oz though the price movement has traded narrowly. This week, we reckon a tight consolidation will initiate from USD1215 – USD1230 /oz but eventually will violate beyond this range. No clue for forecasting the directional headway while we place our next target on both side of the trend at USD1200 /oz and USD1250 /oz level. Silver Silver prices […]

WTI Crude Falls to 7-Week Low

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 26 November 2018 Fundamental Outlook The US has a short week due to Thanksgiving holiday. Crude prices plunge into 2-month low as supply increases. UK is facing tough challenge as moving towards BREXIT deadline. The US housing starts rose 1.23 million in October while building permits expanded 1.26 million. Both matched the forecast. Another report on American orders for durable goods slid 4.4 percent in October. Excluding transport equipment, core orders rose 0.1 percent. Both data are below forecast. Weekly claims increased to 224,000 in the week ended 17 November. Last Wednesday, President Trump has released a press note stating the importance of maintaining bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia on current business relationship. The message hints the protection of national interest between the 2 countries over the murder of reporter Khashoggi which may involve Saudi’s royal family. WTI Crude […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.11.26日周一油脂市场在观望中等待中美领导人在阿根廷的会面结果 11月22日,上周四是美国传统节日“感恩节”,美国民众持续到本周末都在狂欢中度过。。。美盘豆油1月合约,在感恩节前夜中阳K线上涨之后,期价暂时止跌企稳,但当前基本面情况仍旧不明朗———G20峰会(20国集团 国际经济合作论坛)即将在阿根廷召开, 20国领导人将在11月30日—12月1日在布宜诺斯艾利斯会面,其中特朗普与习近平的会面最为引人关注,中美贸易摩擦具体如何发展演绎,油脂市场人士正在紧密关注中,任何消息面的风吹草动都会引起油脂市场的剧烈波动,当前是风暴来袭前的片刻“宁静”。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周一上午盘面,豆油阳K线红盘表现,棕榈油阴十字星表现——内盘油脂商品期价小幅波动,多空主力在悄悄调整仓位,以规避未来几天不确定因素给市场带来的盘面“剧烈变化”。 马盘毛棕榈油受中美贸易战影响不是很严重,马盘棕榈油更多的是受本国基本面情况,此前,马来西亚棕榈油局公布的库存数据,令马盘棕榈油急速下跌,然后在11月21 22日两天时间又快速反身暴涨。。。马盘棕榈油基准1月短线期价“反复”动作明显。。。对马盘棕榈油来说—–无论中美贸易谈判结果如何,马棕榈油总是要追随一方来演绎,无论是跟随中国大连油脂市场,还是跟随美国油脂市场,对马盘棕榈油来说——跟谁也可以。 小结:中美最高领导人阿根廷会面在即,谈判是否成功? 仍是悬在油脂市场人士头上的一把“利剑”,后市会伤害到那方? 现在还不好判断, 在暴风雨来袭前夕,油脂市场暂时在平静中观望等待。 我们从技术层面观察, 内盘 马盘油脂商品在前期超跌之后,仍然存在技术上的反弹修复要求,因此我们继续以短多观点对待。操作上:前期新老多单继续谨慎持有,在消息面情况不确定因素下,恐油脂市场仍会在“尴尬”“左右为难”纠结情绪中小幅波动几天, 继续等待消息面情况的明朗。 [SUMMARY] • Market anticipating upcoming meeting between China and U.S at G20 summit, awaiting the outcome for the next move. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.11.23日周五新老多单继续持有 美盘豆油1月合约,周三晚间中阳红盘上涨,超跌之后的低位反身动作明显,美盘油脂商品多头主力开始发力,做多人气主要寄托到本月底最后几天在阿根廷中美领导人的会面谈判,无论谈判成功与否,我们技术层面的短多思维不变,等待美盘“感恩节”假期回来后的市场后续表现。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆粕1901主力合约,今天周五盘面承压—–因为一旦未来几天中美谈判成功,中国又恢复进口美国大豆,这对中国大豆 豆粕市场会形成一个“反跷跷板”的利空情绪(美国利多),今天内盘大豆 豆粕出现情绪上的波动。 内盘豆油1901主力合约, 今天期价追随内盘大豆 豆粕略微走低,因为中国若进口美国大豆这会在一定程度上利空豆油(大豆供应恢复)。。。内盘棕榈油今天周五盘面期价小幅走强,盘面受马盘棕榈油走强提振。 马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或2月),昨日周四期价中阳K线上涨,本周三瞬间见低点后,连续2天中阳K线上涨,盘面“错列”的反身动作痕迹明显。。。。前面报告我们早早就分析过——马盘棕榈油2000令吉特之下,可以瞬间急挫一下,但不会长久维持,19XX 18XX的价格绝对具有中长线多单投资价值, 瞬间砸的“大坑”,必然是“空头陷阱”——在18XX价格上追空的人短短2天时间已经被套。 今天周五马盘棕榈油又回到2000令吉特附近。 小结:同样一件“事件”——中美领导人会面谈判的结果, 一方利多大豆出口国(美国),另一方利空进口国(中国),因此内盘 美盘油脂商品上当前 投资人士 的短线心态是不一样的, 这也是相同的一个基本面却带来两种情绪反应,这也是油脂商品分析研判难度增加的主要原因, 虽然目前特朗普 习近平 会面谈判的结果我们还不能确定, 但肯定会出现 美盘 内盘短线走势上的分化,甚至不排除未来几天期价会出现“异常的剧烈波动”, 这点是需要我们本月底前需要注意的地方。 暂时我们继续短多思维对待。 操作上: 前期内盘 马盘 棕榈油新老多单继续持有, 内盘 豆油 豆粕 大豆上多单谨慎持有。 [SUMMARY] • The outcome from the meeting between U.S. and China will spur more volatility in near future. • Uncertainty looming in global edible oils. • U.S. soybean oil may rally while China edible oils may fall. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 22 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.11.22日周四美盘豆油昨日晚间中阳K线上涨技术反弹序幕出现苗头 昨日周三晚间,美盘豆油红盘上涨,一根中阳K线的出现(阳包三阴),揭示出美豆油在持续超跌之后,在前低27.37位置受到支撑之后,终于在“感恩节前夜”出现反身动作, 潜在存在技术上“双重底”雏形, 我们继续保持低位酝酿反弹观点不变,后市短线关注反弹过程中上行动能。。。美盘今日因公共假期将停盘一天。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1901主力合约,昨日周三为带下影线的阳K线上涨表现,盘中多头主力仍在顽强抵抗。 内盘豆粕1901合约,昨日也是阳K线上涨,其实豆粕品种前几日就早早率先出现反弹上行走势,继续关注二品种上行力度。 内盘棕榈油1901主力合约,由于受马盘棕榈油下挫疲软走势影响,前期盘面表现一直弱于内盘豆油,关注其后市表现。 马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或2月),在消化吸收马来西亚高库存数据利空消息之后,昨日周三盘面出现久违的“带下影线的中阳K线”,期价瞬间毛刺下跌见1875令吉特之后,尾盘报收于1936令吉特,我们一直坚定认为,2000令吉特之下可以瞬间短线下挫,但期价不会持久维持在低位, 越是往下“砸坑”,越是空头“陷阱”嫌疑, 昨日马盘棕榈油低位也出现止跌企稳苗头。 小结: 美盘豆油出现“双重底”K线形态走势苗头,马盘棕榈油也出现止跌企稳迹象, 内盘油脂商品是否多头信心会略微强势一些? 让我们继续关注油脂商品后市短线变盘信号是否会得到延续。。。。具体操作上: 前期新老多单继续谨慎持有,变盘信号出现痕迹之后,关注随后的反弹动能是否有效配合。 [SUMMARY] • U.S. soybean oil showed double bottom pattern. [ACTION] • Malaysia palm oil showed sign of rebound. • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe to OPF Blog via […]

UK Parliament Faces Tough Challenge in BREXIT Deal

A guest post written by DAR Wong Currency Market Observations – 19 November 2018 Fundamental Outlook The US retail prices grow faster while President Trump aims to suppress inflation by keeping low oil prices. Eurozone slows down in trade surplus while Germany stagnates in growth. British Government faces tough challenge for negotiating BREXIT deal. The US consumer prices rose 0.3 percent while core prices grew 0.2 percent, both matched the forecast. Another report on retail prices rose 0.8 percent in October, while core prices excluding transport equipment grew 0.7 percent. Both data are above forecast and signal inflation. Saudi Arabia is cutting oil shipment to US with intention to squeeze stockpile shortage in Government’s storage, in return driving up demand prices. This action might rile President Trump who wants to contain inflation prices for Americans. China’s industrial production including utilities and mines grew 5.9 percent in October on year basis. […]

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 19 Nov 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC Crude Oil WTI Crude prices climbed quickly after took a dip beneath USD55 /barrel at 12-month low. This week, we predict the initial range will be contained from USD55 – USD60 /barrel until we see a breakthrough in either direction. The trend needs to settle above USD60 /barrel in order to resume the bullish strength, which is in-line with piercing above the EMA200 average line. Gold Gold prices bounced off the USD1200 /oz bottom after briefly took a dip beneath this level. Market recovered to USD1220 /oz on Friday due to short-covering. This week, we are remaining unchanged in our opinion that the trend is still trapped in large range from USD1200 – USD1240 /oz region. In our opinion, Dollar is returning to main focal instrument by traders for watching the inverse relationship in yellow metal. Silver Silver prices marched […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 15 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.11.15日周四美盘豆油回落整理超跌之后反弹序幕即将拉开 国际原油近期大跌,美盘豆油却不为所动,并未追随国际原油期价继续走低,美豆油1月合约,短线回落整理之后已经处于短线超跌的极限状态, 昨日周三晚间小阳十字星K线之后,美豆油技术上超跌反弹序幕即将拉开(跌无可跌)。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,昨日周三盘面中阴K线下跌走势,盘中杀跌动能得到一定释放,今天周四十字星K线止跌,虽然盘中观望气氛仍然较浓,但期价继续下挫的动能减弱,超跌之后的技术反弹要求强烈。 马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,在马来西亚高库存的悲观利空情绪被逐渐吸收消化之后,市场恐慌情绪开始缓解,在昨日周三跳空低开之后,今天周四盘面期价未再出现创新低, 1965令吉特的低点恐将是近期短线“新低”, 马盘棕榈油期价下破2000令吉特之后的“价值投资洼地”会逐渐被市场所发现,后市短线继续下挫空间极窄。 小结: 美盘豆油短线回落整理接近极限状态,短线技术反弹走势“呼之欲出”。 内盘 马盘油脂商品经过这几天的瞬间加速急跌之后,盘中杀跌动能得到完全释放,后市继续杀跌动能恐将衰竭———当前内盘 马盘油脂商品的中长线多头投资“洼地”就在跟前,此时此刻坚决不能再盲目悲观的看空很多。 具体操作上: 前期被套多单继续持有,手中无仓单的散户朋友可逢低少量多单进场“埋伏试盘”操作。 另外,部分激进型散户朋友也可少量多单进场,以摊低前期多单持仓成本,当前油脂商品的短线反弹要求强烈,后市期价会短线逐步走高。 [SUMMARY] • U.S. soybean oil may rebound soon, so do China and Malaysia edible oils. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. • Aggressive traders may initiate intra-day short positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 13 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.11.13日周二马来西亚棕榈油局昨日公布库存数据 美盘豆油1月合约,昨日周一晚间小阳K线表现,期价未延续下挫,今天周二亚洲电子盘又小阳K线红盘表现——-美豆油下挫幅度不明显,这令我们紧张情绪得到些许缓解。。。。但美豆油持续不断的疲软状态,也是令我们较为尴尬的地方,美豆油仍在这种纠结情绪中波动震荡,超跌之后积聚做多人气仍是我们期待的。 大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,昨日周一上午盘面曾一度恐慌下跌,下午盘面期价才略微走稳——-终盘时候,棕榈油1901合约为带长下影线的十字星收盘,豆油1901为带下影线的小阳K线收盘。 今天周二盘面为十字星K线小幅波动,期价暂时企稳。 马来西亚棕榈油局12日周一公布数据显示:棕榈油10月份产量为196万吨,环比提高6%,这也是连续第4个月增长。 10月份棕榈油出口量为157万吨,环比降低3%————–产量增加而出口下滑,这便造成马来西亚棕榈油总库存量相应的增加,数据显示10月份库存量为272万吨,比9月份时候提高7.6%,这是2017年12月份以来的最高库存。。。。马盘棕榈油基准1月,昨日早盘跳空低开,上午盘面期价走低,创出近期新低2008令吉特, 下午开盘期价勉强走高,终盘以阳十字星收盘。 今天周二盘面为小阴K线走势,期价仍在吸收消化“报告库存增加”的利空消息影响。 小结: 美盘豆油仍我行我素的独自徘徊震荡,短线走势模糊。 内盘 马盘油脂商品在重要报告出炉前出现恐慌情绪,市场部分多头主力出现减仓来规避风险。 今天周二报告出炉后,市场恐慌情绪暂时得到缓解,但马来西亚棕榈油库存增加的利空消息还有待吸收消化,恐内盘 马盘油脂商品期价仍要小幅波动震荡一些时间。具体操作上: 单向裸仓多单继续谨慎持有,等待消息面带给市场的恐慌情绪逐渐平稳。 [SUMMARY] • U.S. soybean oil went sideways but China and Malaysia edible oils routed prior to the release of key reports. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical […]

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