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Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.12.26日周三马盘棕榈油下跌 由于中美时差,美盘豆油仍在停盘中,短线回落整理走势恐将延续。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1905主力合约,今天周三盘面,期价小阳K线表现,多头主力仍在顽强抵抗中,前期多单谨慎持有。 内盘棕榈油1905主力合约,昨日期价下跌幅度较大,盘面出现走弱迹象,内盘棕榈油多单减仓操作。 马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,昨日圣诞节假期结束,今天周三盘面受外围油脂市场走弱拖累,早盘期价跳空低开走软,保险起见多单减仓。 小结: 美盘暂时停盘中, 内盘豆油多头主力顽强抵抗中, 内盘 马盘 棕榈油出现走坏迹象明显。 操作上: 内盘豆油多单继续谨慎持有,而内盘 马盘 棕榈油前期多单则继续减仓操作,暂时规避期价下行风险。 [SUMMARY] • China and Malaysia’s edible oils routed. [ACTION] • Traders may reduce positions for China and Malaysia’s palm oil. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email  […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 17 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.12.17日周一美盘豆油回落整理 美盘豆油1月合约,上周末阴K线下挫,连续两天的阴K线走低,表面美盘豆油持续横盘之后期价出现了预料之中的回落整理走势苗头。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1905合约,期价延续前期疲软走势,今天周一盘面期价下挫幅度收窄。 内盘棕榈油1905主力合约 ,延续前期的横盘波动模式,多头主力继续横盘抵抗中。 马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,上周四阳一阴K线,期价短线反弹走势欲望明显,但缺少了内盘油脂的走势支持,期价反弹高度受限 ,今天周一上午盘面阴K线走低。 小结:全球油脂商品短线走势继续分化,盘中表现不同步迹象明显,可操作性大打折扣,建议继续场外观望。。。操作上:前期多单继续持有。 [SUMMARY] • Divergence occurred among global edible oils, raising difficulty to trade. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email  DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 13 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.12.13日周四马盘棕榈油上涨 美盘豆油1月合约,期价反弹到29.00高位之后,依然为横盘震荡模式,期价继续上攻出现动能衰竭迹象,谨防美豆油上冲无果后的转身回落走势。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 1905主力合约,期价抵抗性走低,盘面较为疲软。 内盘棕榈油1905主力合约,期价呈现横盘无序波动,在4500整数关附近波动徘徊。 马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日十字星波动震荡一天,今天周四期价中阳K线上涨,盘中多头主力护盘迹象明显,期价拒绝往下深跌很多。 小结: 美盘豆油继续不温不火的横盘波动模式,期价再不能上攻,谨防消耗完反弹动能之后转身回落整理。 内盘油脂盘面依旧较为疲软。 而马盘棕榈油期价却上行欲望强烈,只是在得不到美盘 内盘油脂商品的配合支持后,密切关注其后续走势的持续性。操作上前期多单继续持有。 [SUMMARY] • No new catalyst to boost market sentiment. • Prepare for sudden market retracement. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email  DISCLAIMER: This […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 12 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.12.12日周三油脂商品成交清淡 美盘豆油1月合约,昨日周二晚间中阳K线红盘上涨,但依旧处于这几天来横盘区间的上沿部位,依然没有形成实质性盘口走势动作。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1905主力合约,短线疲软态势依旧,短线悲观情绪弥漫市场。 马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,今天周三盘面十字星K线走势,盘面成交清淡,市场观望气氛较浓。 小结: 阿根廷20集体国峰会之后,虽然美国总统暂时把2019年1月1日准备执行的 对来自中国的2000亿商品继续维持在10%基础上,暂缓提高到25%。。。。在时间上推延到3月1日,在90天内中美两国从新坐下来协商谈判,当前全球金融市场对后期具体的谈判结果不清晰,也没法判断,仅仅只有美国豆农期望值较高,但当前市场在没有实质性动作前(中国方面依然一颗美国大豆也未购买 仅靠希望寄托是不够的),油脂市场交易者观望气氛依然浓厚,全球油脂商品也只好在夹缝中无序波动震荡,短线走势模糊,在后市如果还不出现推动行情的消息面明朗,恐这种死水一潭局面依然会持续一段时间。。。操作上:前期多单继续持有,在萎靡不振的短线行情下,继续保持场外观望观点为上策。 [SUMMARY] • No new catalyst to boost market sentiment. • Global edible market direction remain unclear despite the positive outcome from G20 meeting between U.S. and China. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 11 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.12.11日周二全球油脂商品短线继续分化走势 美盘豆油1月合约,短线横盘模式已经持续6天,期价一直围绕在日K线图表上60天均线位置徘徊震荡,盘面继续上攻的动能一点点被消耗,这种状态不能长久,谨防再突然掉下来。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1905主力合约,短线盘面受利空情绪影响严重,期价呈现阴K线下挫态势,内盘盘面较为疲软。 马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日周一盘面中阳K线上涨,短线存在上行欲望,但受内盘油脂商品下挫拖累带动,今天周二盘面又小幅下跌,盘面持续动作不强。 小结: 美盘横盘 内盘走低 马盘想上行——– 三地油脂商品短线走势欲望分歧明显,互为牵制,不能形成统一联动单边走势,短线研判操作难度大增,尴尬阶段建议散户朋友暂时继续场外观望,前期多单继续持有,部分激进型交易者以防万一,可少量空单对锁,谨防市场突发性急跌。。。暂时保守型操作一下。 [SUMMARY] • Global edible oils remain uncertain which increase trading difficulty for traders. [ACTION] • Aggressive traders may initiate short positions. • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 7 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.12.7日周五内盘豆油情绪化大跌 美盘豆油1月合约,昨日期价阴K线小幅走低,期价反弹到日K线图表60天均线位置,期价开始止步不前,在没有更进一步的中美贸易谈判结果,在没有中国开始进口美国大豆的明确动作前, 美盘豆油出现反弹乏力迹象苗条。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1901(或1905)主力合约,今天周五盘面出现大幅度下跌,空头主力刻意打压——市场传闻中国高层方面可能存在向美国总统特朗普“低头”的嫌疑(存在谈判妥协)。。。内盘棕榈油1901(或1905)主力合约,今天周五中阴K线下跌,跌幅略小于内盘豆油,由于国内当前油脂厂家开工率较高,豆油国内高库存压力较大,而元旦 春节 提前备货市场 还未传导过去,去库存心理压力造成内盘油脂商品出现突然的急跌现象。 马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或2月),今天周五盘面小阳十字星表现,市场依旧观望气氛较浓,多空主力趋于谨慎,市场交投清淡,盘面上并未追随内盘豆油大幅度走低。 小结: 内外盘短线走势继续分化,各种基本面上的情绪化波动仍然主导着油脂市场的短线走势,当前阶段——多空主力对后市看法分歧较大,对中美具有谈判结果疑虑重重,此时此刻是最为混乱时候,因此难免会出现期价的剧烈异常波动,间接的给我们散户朋友增加了研判难度。。。我们只好继续装傻充愣 继续冷眼旁观,前期油脂多单持仓不动,没有更好办法 [SUMMARY] • Global markets uncertain towards the outcome from G20 meeting between U.S. and China. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email  DISCLAIMER: This […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 5 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.12.5日周三内盘豆油反弹上涨内盘马盘不为所动 昨日周二晚间,美盘豆油1月合约期价中阳K线红盘上涨,短线反弹走势清晰, 盘面受中美贸易争端缓解利好消息刺激明显。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约, 期价继续横盘波动,盘面期价变化不大,多空主力操作上都较为谨慎,未见大的动作。 马盘毛棕榈油基准2月(或1月),期价也在低位密集成交区——1月在1890–1990, 2月在1970—2070内,100个令吉特区间内波动,短线无方向的上下横盘震荡。 小结: 美盘豆油反弹走高,内盘 马盘油脂商品不为所动,短线陷入横盘波动状态, 短线方向感丢失,内外盘继续分化。。。这种状态下,敌不动,我们也不动,除此之外也就没有更好办法对付此种局面。操作上:前期多单继续谨慎持有。 [SUMMARY] • U.S. soybean oil rebounded. • China and Malaysia edible oils remain unchanged while trading range. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 4 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.12.4日周二中美贸易争端暂缓引发期货市场内外盘走势分化 从阿根廷传来的中美贸易争端消息明朗后,全球大宗商品在商业信心恢复利多情绪下,出现普遍上涨(包括国家原油贵金属黄金白银有色金属铜锌化工商品橡胶类溅金属螺纹钢以及煤炭铁矿石等等。而美盘油豆油1月合约,昨日周一晚间跳空高开上涨 ,终盘以阳十字星收盘,短线反弹走强欲望转强。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,期价横盘不动,继续维持原来波澜不惊态势。而内盘大豆 豆粕期价则出现了长阴K线下跌,中美期货市场短线走势分化明显。 马盘毛棕榈油基准2月(或1月),昨日周一盘面期价跳空高开,但随后盘中震荡走低,终盘以高开低走的长阴K线下跌收盘,马盘棕榈油昙花一现,无果而返。 小结: 中美经贸关系基本面明朗后,引发全球农产品,特别是油脂商品短线走势分化严重——–美盘因重启大豆出口利多心理影响而上涨; 内盘因大批量原材料重新进口恢复担忧情绪而利空走低; 马盘因中国转为进口美国油脂而削弱了马来西亚棕榈油的出口竞争优势而走低。。。。油脂商品短线走势分化,是我们最最不愿看到的局面, 这间接增大了散户朋友分析判断以及操作上的难度。。。。我们暂时以静制动的多观察一下吧,操作上: 原油脂商品仓单持仓不动, 其中部分激进型交易者可今天短多贵金属黄金,以规避油脂市场当前三地的混乱局面,等待全球油脂短线走势一致,以及未来中美关税争端谈判的具体细节执行情况。,谨防出现新变数。 [SUMMARY] • U.S. soybean oil rallied but China and Malaysia edible oils routed. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. • Aggressive traders may initiate long positions for gold. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.  Subscribe […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 3 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.12.3日周一G20峰会上中美经贸关系趋于缓和 这个周末阿根廷传来消息,在布宜诺斯艾利斯召开的20国集团最高领导人峰会上,美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平在西餐晚宴上达成重要共识——决定停止新的贸易关税制裁,中美贸易争端暂时得到缓解(特朗普表示,90天内,经贸关税暂时维持在原来的10%水平,暂不会提高到25% 具体细节指示下属工作单位人员将重启谈判)。。。事后,特朗普发表推特表示: 中国同意将美国汽车关税从当前的40%“减少并取消”,关于大豆后续贸易,中国将同意从美国采购大量农业 能源 工业和其他产品,以降低两国之间的贸易逆差。。。利多消息传出,美国豆农率先欢欣鼓舞——-美盘黄豆连今天周一亚洲电子盘期价大幅跳空高开,美盘豆油1月合约,期价也追随性高开上涨,基本面短线角度利多美盘油脂商品。 大陆内盘油脂商品大豆 豆粕1901合约,受美国大豆从新进口到中国的利空情绪困扰,今天周一期价出现下跌。 内盘豆油1901主力合约,期价中阴K线下跌,但整体仍维持在原来的横盘震荡区间内。 内盘棕榈油1901主力合约,为高开低走的小阴K线表现。 马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或2月),受中美贸易争端缓解情绪影响,受国际原油期价反身上涨提振,今天周一早盘,马棕榈油期价跳空高开于2000令吉特左右,但上午盘面为高开低走的中阴K线表现(存在 部分多头逢高减仓)。 小结: G20峰会上利多消息传出,全球商业信心转强, 国际原油 国内有色金属 橡胶化工制品 铁矿石 黑金属螺纹钢 煤炭等等品种,今天内盘期货市场普遍走强。 。。今天,内盘油脂商品情绪较为“尴尬”——不知该追随美盘油脂走高,还是受短线利空情绪而走低?期价大多表现为高开低走状态,让我们继续关注一下后续盘面多空主力情绪变化,原多单暂时谨慎持有,暂不建议盲目操作。 [SUMMARY] • Positive catalyst from G20 meeting boosted global sentiment. • Global commodities market rallied, but China edible oils remain uncertain. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position […]

Global Vegoils Analysis – 30 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong 2018.11.30日周五棕榈油品种本周宽幅震荡 截止到本月底,美国大豆收割工作基本接近尾声阶段,当前美国农户大量的新豆堆积如山,美国豆农正在等待中美两国最高领导人今天在阿根廷的晚宴结果。。。中美经济贸易后续如何发展? 贸易争端是否会缓和?中美联合公报是会否出现可喜的新消息? 未来几天就明朗了。 下周初美盘 大豆 豆油就会做出相应的反应。 内盘油脂商品豆油1901主力合约,近期短线横盘蛰伏不动,期价变化不大。 内盘棕榈油1901主力合约,本周先抑后扬,期价出现大幅震荡,盘面受马盘棕榈油走势影响明显。 马盘毛棕榈油基准2月(或1月),本周一受印度尼西亚下调出口关税利空消息影响,期价周一时候一根长阴k线突然暴跌,随后四天又四连阳红盘上涨收复失地——-这与马来西亚最新政策 B10生物柴油掺混政策执行分不开,马来西亚政府将于12月1号开始执行,这大大利多马盘棕榈油——-其实我们早早就曾提到过,这一潜在利多基本面一直被市场所忽略, 当前印尼执行的是B20项目, 20%的掺混比, 泰国也宣布2019年开始也执行B10项目。 小结: 中美贸易争端疑云仍然笼罩油脂市场——特朗普与习近平今日西餐晚宴结果就显得非常重要。。。。印度尼西亚 马来西亚两国政府本周的两大新政策 公布,又严重影响到棕榈油市场的敏感神经——– 全球油脂商品在动荡不安中度过本周, 下周初油脂商品市场肯定还会h风云再起”,短线油脂商品的期价剧烈波动恐难避免, 我们散户朋友能做的只有冷眼旁观,暂且不盲目追随。 具体操作上: 前期新老多单谨慎持有,等待下周一市场消息面的具体结果。 [SUMMARY] • U.S. trade war still looming global edible oils. • New policy from Indonesia and Malaysia’s government affected palm oil industry. [ACTION] • Traders may hold current positions. This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong. Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good […]

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