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Global Markets Analysis – 20 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

20.02.2017 周一 油脂类商品下跌加速赶底

今天2月20日周一,是美国总统纪念日,美盘停盘一天 ,无交易。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,在上周五盘面上长阴K线急跌,盘中下跌加速迹象明显,内盘商品期货市场利空情绪蔓延(H7N9禽流感),今天周一早盘,期价低开高走小阳K线表现,当前油脂类商品短线下探寻底过程进行中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,受上周五整体油脂商品市场利空情绪影响,马盘毛棕榈油跳空低开低走,期价下跌幅度增大,今天周一盘中期价稍有止跌,恐慌情绪稍有缓解,但仍未出现明显的整理结束信号出现,恐在周五阴K线右下角仍需震荡点时间。

小结:上周五美豆油长阴K线急跌探底,短线超跌迹象开始显现,内盘马盘油脂商品追随性跟随,虽然有部分超卖迹象,但在美盘未出现明显的止跌信号前,我们不建议低位多单跟进(保守一些),等待美盘开盘后的具体走势指引。具体操作上:前期被套多单持仓不动,不建议空单追进,也不建议新多单进场抄底,我们再多观望一下美盘开盘后的具体表现(美盘豆油下挫整理 已经非常靠近下边轨支撑位置了)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil candlestick registered a low on Friday, indicating a sharp short-term decline, as China and Malaysia oils follow suit.
• Although there is some sign of overselling, we advise against entering long position before technical indicators suggest a stop to the decline US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders whose long positions were trapped by the downtrend are not advised to go short to pursue the downtrend, nor recommended to add long position. Instead, we shall observe the performance of the US market...

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Inflation Seen in Global Large Economies

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 20 February 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. reveals inflation signal in consumer and producer prices while Federal Reserve (FED) chair hints imminent rate hike. China also reports better inflation on annualized rate. U.K. shows higher consumer prices amid dropping claimant counts. British earnings stabilize with unemployment unchanged.

The U.S. producer prices rose 0.6 percent in January on monthly basis and twice the forecast, showing highest record in past 7 months. Federal Reserve (FED) Yellen comments that rate hike should be timed ahead instead of delaying too long. The U.S. overnight lending rates has been maintained at near to zero for 7 years and have raised twice since then.

The U.S. mortgage delinquencies for final quarter on home loans was reported at 4.80 percent and higher the Q3 at 4.52 percent. Consumer prices grew 0.6 percent...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 20 February 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dow Jones benchmark closed at historical high 20,624.00 region on Friday while USDX trended firm at 101.00 area. The meeting between President Trump and PM Abe has turned out to be friendly and iron out worries of investors. Yen strengthens a little before weekend as investors reckon Trump still favors weaker Dollar against Yen. Gold and Silver still move amid strong demand.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices has been trading in flat range from USD51.50 – USD54.00 /barrel for many week. Last week, market sentiment remained status-quo and investors are observing the increasing reserve in U.S. inventories. This week, we reckon same range will be targeted unless we see unexpected movement in Dollar Index trend or unforeseen news from OPEC members.

Gold

Gold prices topped USD1244.00 /oz level again last week but failed to...

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Dow Jones Benchmark Climbs to New High

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 13 February 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. trade deficit nears to highest in 4 years while Dow Jones market closes at all tie high again. China jumps in trade surplus amid economic expansion. Germany maintains steady growth in small industrial production but large manufacturers shrink.

The U.S. trade deficit in December fell 3.2 percent to USD44.2 billion, almost highest since 2012. Weekly jobless claims dropped to 234,000 as of end 4 February and to 43-year low record.

The U.S. prelim consumer confidence filed by University of Michigan rises to 95.7 in current month. Dow Jones benchmark closed at 20,269 on Friday and maintains as historical record high.

China’s Caixin services index grew to 53.1 in January, lower than forecast but still signalling growth above 50.0 benchmark. Another major report reveals the national trade surplus expanded...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 13 February 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The U.S. government among some cities are still fighting against the Presidential order on travel ban to 7 Muslim countries. Japan’s Prime Minister Abe is visiting U.S. for discussing trade policy with President Trump. Precious metals have been trading firm while Crude prices whipsaws in sideways. Increasing oil inventories in U.S. storage caused a dip in Crude prices early last week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices dipped down before middle last week but range trading was still constricted largely from 51.00 – 54.00 region. Towards weekend closing, market recovered after the OPEC reported supply cut in January at 1 million barrels per day. We predict the range will remain status-quo for coming week unless the new force could lead a breakout beyond the aforementioned range.

Gold

Gold prices topped off 1245.00 high and profit-taking...

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American Payroll Grows and Lifts Dow

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 06 February 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. increases in payroll and lifts Dow’s closing above 20,000 level. Federal Reserve and central banks in Japan and U.K. stays unchanged in monetary policy. China grows in manufacturing.

The U.S. pending homes sales were up 1.6 percent in December from a year ago, despite the interest moved up in mortgage loans. Personal spending rose 0.5 percent after gaining 0.2 percent in November.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence expands to 111.8 in January, falling off 113.3 revised in last month. Another report on manufacturing index hit 56 in January, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from December. Reading above 50 benchmark signals expansion and growing for 92nd consecutive month.

Construction spending for December contracted 0.2 percent and down from 0.9 percent growth in previous month. FED chair...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 06 February 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The U.S. imposes new sanction on 13 individuals and 12 entities linked to Iran ballistic missile program. Crude prices rose slightly on Friday after the news. American non-farm payroll increased 227,000 in January and pushed Dow Jones benchmark to above 20,000 on Friday. Precious metals regain demand as investors are wary of global uncertainty created by Trump threats on Mexico and forthcoming new policy on corporate tax changes.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices almost touched 54.00 level on Friday after the U.S. imposed new sanctions to boycott Iran. This week, it is crucial to observe the bulls provided it could pierce above 55.00 and continue higher for reaching 60.00 target. Otherwise, we foresee the trend might just simmer down again and return to 50.00 for consolidation. Crude prices will be uncertain and subject...

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Trump Succeeds as 45th President of United States

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 23 January 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. consumer prices match forecast. Trump is sworn-in as 45th President of United States amid little market volatility. China grows slightly higher in Q4 from a year ago compared to September. European Central Bank remains unchanged in monetary policy. British Prime Minister Theresa May assures to begin her execution smoothly in executing BREXIT.

The U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in December while core prices, excluding fresh food and energies, gained 0.2 percent. Both matched forecast. Another separate report on industrial production, including utilities and mines, rose 0.8 percent in December and also matched forecast.

The U.S. building permit matched forecast in December by rising 1.21 million. Weekly claims for jobless benefits slid to 234,000 in the week ended 14 January. Philadelphia’s manufacturing index rises to 23.6 in January...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 January 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude inventories continue to cut lower on weekly basis filed by EIA. Production from OPEC members also reduced from market sources that lifts the Crude prices off USD50.00 per barrel. Dollar Index (USDX) trades lower after Trump comments on stronger Dollar may jeopardize trade recovery of U.S. exports. Gold and Silver have been trading in firm sentiment throughout last week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading sideways from 50.00 – 54.00 range amid cautious activity. Traders are observing the official number on OPEC production after January ends. Meanwhile, no directional trend is forecast but a lower Dollar Index beneath 100.00 benchmark might push the WTI Crude on higher demand.

Gold

Gold prices topped 1218.00 region last week and receded. This week, the trend may correct at 1190.00 before climbing again. However, the...

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Chinese Yuan Recovers in Gradual Pace

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 16 January 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy reveals slight growth in inflation through consumer retail sales and producer prices. China trade surplus expands at slower pace while Yuan gradually recovers. U.K. maintains domestic growth despite export slows down.

The Energy Information Administration reports that weekly Crude inventories increased 4.1 million barrels and much higher than forecast. The weekly unemployment claims dropped to 247,000 in the week ended 7 January.

The U.S. retail sales jumped 0.6 percent in December after revised 0.2 percent gains in November. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, grew slower at 0.2 percent after November gain was revised at 0.3 percent. Another report on producer prices rose 0.3 percent during last month.

China’s consumer prices grew 2.1 percent in December from a year ago versus 2.3 percent annual growth in previous month....

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