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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 18 June 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have submerged on downside prices within USD64 – USD67 /barrel amid tight trading. This week, we reckon not much change in market sentiment until the OPEC meeting begins in Vienna on next weekend. There is a possibility of price recovery to USD70 /barrel in post-OPEC meeting in case of Dollar fall or global revision in supply cut of Crude output.

Gold

Gold prices fell on Friday after Dollar Index (USDX) climbed to 95.00 level. The long haul decline of yellow metal from above USD1300 /oz to below USD1280 /oz has chilled off long-traders. This week, we forecast the market will recover once Dollar recedes. Range will be contained from USD1270 – USD1300 /oz with bargain-hunting arises from bottom. Dollar is the vital indicator now and should not pierce above...

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New Trade War Begins Between US and China

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 18 June 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The US Federal Reserve raises interest rate and signal 2 more hike. New trade wars begins after US and China slaps each other with new import tariff. European Central Bank plans to exit tapering plan over year-end but will stay at record low rates till next summer. Japan will stay unchanged in monetary policy and lag behind the 2 peers.

The US consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in May and matched forecast. Core prices also grew 0.2 percent but above expectation. Producer prices climbed 0.5 percent in May, above consensus and highest in more than 1 year's record. Excluding food and energies, core prices also grew 0.3 percent and above forecast.

The US retail sales rose 0.8 percent while core sales grew 0.9 percent, both above the median forecast. On...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 11 June 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices tested USD64 /barrel bottom last week and traders have begun to short-cover. This week, we reckon the trend will be supported at aforementioned region and make correction upwards. Resistance is identified at USD69 /barrel in case of recovery. Fundamentally, oil prices are still caught in consolidation of no direction until we see the new movement in Dollar or supply/demand influences from OPEC and Russia.

Gold

Gold prices traded in tight range last week while capped below USD1300 /oz area. This week, we expect the trend to rise with new gathering strength if the prices could hold above USD1290 /oz support. Piercing above USD1305 /oz resistance will probably reach up to USD1325 /oz together with momentum building up. Up move is expected to initiate after mid-week.

Silver

Silver prices have...

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European Central Bank to Announce Plan in Tapering

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 11 June 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The US Nasdaq Composite Index creates to new high amid other struggling stocks. China steadies in inflation growth while trade surplus slows down. European Central Bank (ECB) will plan to taper stimulus and hold press conference for details.

The US ISM services index grew 58.6 in May and higher than previous month. Weekly jobless claims at 222,000 for the week ended 2 June and stayed in forecast range.

Last Tuesday, Nasdaq Composite Index closed at record high 7636.86 after Netflix and Amazon surged amid the other struggling stocks.

China's Caixin services index rose 52.9 in May and stayed on growth track. Another report on trade surplus grew USD24.9 billion in May and below expectation. Consumer prices rose 1.8 in May from a year ago while producer prices expanded 4.1...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 4 June 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices are being supported at USD65 – USD66 /barrel region that is the previous resistance area. This week, we reckon the trend will stay inactive from USD65 – USD68 /barrel while waiting for new fundamental news to lead a new recovery. Generally, market traders are waiting for FOMC meeting and the effects of Iran sanction to trigger new price movements.

Gold

Gold prices traded mainly from USD1290 – USD1305 /oz last week. The Dollar Index (USDX) has reached a stagnation at 95.00 and may recede in coming weeks. Henceforth, we forecast the yellow metal will find a strong base at USD1285 – USD1290 /oz region. Breaking above USD1310 /oz resistance will potentially recover at USD1225 /oz in 1-2 weeks’ time. Take note that the potential rate hike on 13 June...

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American Payrolls Adds 223,000 in Strong Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 14 May 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The US adds higher payroll in May while GDP grows. The coming FOMC meeting in mid-June yields high chance for another rate hike. Eurozone climbs in consumer prices while Italy sinks into sovereign debt after political risk erupts. UK steps up manufacturing with higher lending to consumers.

The US Conference Board of Consumer Confidence grew 128.0 in May and matched forecast. Another report on prelim GDP grew 2.2 percent ended March on quarterly basis.

The US jobless claims for the week ended 26 May slid to 221,000 and better than forecast. Consumer spending rose 0.6 percent in April and best in 5 months' record. The ISM manufacturing index grew 58.7 in May and highest in 3 months.

On Friday, American non-farm payroll added 223,000 jobs in May and...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 28 May 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices fell about 6 percent correction last week after the news of loosening supply cut by Russia and OPEC members. Technically, we reckon a strong support will emerge at current 67.00 /barrel level with additional bargain-hunting at USD65 /barrel in case of further drawdown. Following the sanction on Iran, global shortage of oil supply will be expected over coming months. Target range will likely trade from USD65 – USD71 /barrel this week.

Gold

Gold prices swung up from USD1280 /oz last week and closed at USD1301 /oz for the weekend. This week, we have identified the market trend to be hovering at current EMA200 line and will probably thread sideways amid mixed sentiment. Range is expected to be contained from USD1290 – USD1320 /oz as flight of fund may temporary...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 May 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices floated above USD71 /barrel last week together with Brent Crude. Conflict between European Union and US Governments on restoration of Iran may create another possibility of trade war since the exemption of US import tariff in European goods will end in May. Most market analysts predict Crude prices will reach above USD80 /barrel before year-end. This week, we forecast the market will thread high between USD69 – USD71 /barrel but piercing in either headway will lead a new directional trend.

Gold

Gold prices fell below USD1305 /oz support and reached USD1285 /oz bottom last week. Market has been oversold as panic demand rushes into greenback. This week, we forecast the yellow metal will be short-covered while the range is confined to USD1285 – USD1305 /oz region. We reckon...

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Market Sentiment Slows Down on Regional Base

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 14 May 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The US housing growth slips while jobless claims improve slightly. China grew at slowest pace for fixed asset investment in non-rural sectors. Britain declines in earnings and claims for jobless benefits increase.

The US retail sales gained 0.3 percent in April and down from revised 0.8 percent in March. Excluding automobiles, core prices also grew 0.3 percent but below expectation.

American building permit expanded 1.35 million in April compared to revised 1.38 million in previous month. Another report on housing starts rose 1.29 million and below forecast.

Industrial production including utilities and mines grew 0.7 percent after rose 0.6 percent in March. Jobless claims at 222,000 in the week ended 12 May and best in 4 weeks average.

China's industrial production rose 7.0 percent in April from a...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 May 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have finally closed above USD70 /barrel that was highest in last 3-1/2 year's record. While the market needs more fundamental strength to “cook” the bullish sentiment, we remain prudent of expecting the range from USD67 – USD71 /barrel for time being. However, ascension above USD71 /barrel will gather a new strong demand that could lift the prices to USD76 /barrel.

Gold

Gold prices have been recovering last week amid strong Dollar that might pose inflation signs for coming months. Strong support has emerged at USD1305 /oz on week-chart and should lead the market into recovery. This week, we foresee the trend will rise higher while contain from USD310 – USD1335 /oz region. Fundamentally, we also expect yellow metal to be in gradual demand for coming weeks amid uncertainty...

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