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American Hourly Wages Implies Possible Rate Hike

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 9 October 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. nonfarm payroll falls beneath forecast but averaging hourly wages surge as a potential signal for possible rate hike. Japan grows in sentiment among large manufacturers before October election. Spain is facing domestic chaos as Catalonia Government proposes to be independent.

The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose to 60.8 in September and highest record in 6 years. Another separate report on ISM services index rose to 59.8 in September and highest record in 2 years.

The U.S. jobless claims for the week ended 30 September dropped to 260,000 versus 272,000 in previous week. Trade deficits for August steadied at USD42.4 billion and matched forecast.

American non-farm payroll shrank 33,000 in September after being hit by impact Hurricane, below positive consensus and lower than below 169,000 growth in August....

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 9 October 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices fell last week and broke 4 weeks of bullish streak. Rising production resurfaces in market though Russia and OPEC pledge to spike demand though maintaining supply cut. Tropical storm Nate is expected to head into offshore oil industry as many operators have shut down operation. Despite the fall last week, we interpret it as a correction and expect the market to be supported at USD47 /barrel region. Range is still mild bearish while it may move lower from USD50 /barrel in case of quick pull up pattern.

Gold

Gold prices dipped at USD1260 /oz on Friday after nonfarm payroll release but jumped after sign of inflation has been interpreted. This week, we reckon the bulls may lead the market and recover at USD1295 /oz as our first target....

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Global Markets Analysis – 5 October 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

05.10.2017周四美盘豆油12月合约出现“报复性”反弹动作

美盘豆油12月合约,本周初(10.2日)仍处于中阴K线下跌状态,期价创出新低,并且在周二时候(10月3日)的小阳K线仍处于阶段性低位的震荡-----但在昨日周三(10月4日)晚间,期价长阳上涨,报复性反弹动作发生,今天周四亚洲电子早盘,期价仍出现上攻姿态,美豆油短线回落整理之后的“报复性”反弹动作开始明显起来,美盘豆油的短线走势,与我们在节前心理预期完全吻合。

大陆内盘因公共假期,国内金融市场停盘中,无法交易。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,连续的2天的阳K线表现,盘中出现了止跌企稳之后的错列上行态势,期价恰好在下方60天均线附近受到买盘支撑,在连续10几个交易日的下挫调整之后,盘中存在强烈的短线反弹要求。由于马盘不存在假期停盘情况,因此建议马盘散户朋友可于今日少量多单进场试盘交易,后市存在一个短线反弹机会(我们先按弱势短线反弹观点对待 )。

小结:美盘豆油出现超跌之后的技术反弹动作,内盘交易者因停盘无法交易。但对马盘散户朋友来说,不存在无法交易情况,在操作上可稍微早于内盘-------先行进场埋伏一小部分多单(尽量逢盘中低点多单埋伏),后市存在期价反弹上行可能,我们建议暂且以短多的弱势反弹观点对待。

[SUMMARY]
• After downward correction in US soybean oil has been done, the market rebounded and continued its uptrend.
• China's Dalian Commodity Exchange is shut for a public holiday.

[ACTION]
• For Malaysia market, retail traders may initiate long positions when the prices are low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader...

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Global Markets Analysis – 25 September 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

25.09.2017周一临近内盘国庆长假本周最后一个交易周开始考虑逢低空单减持

美盘豆油12月合约,上周五晚间小阴K线下破60天均线,短线下挫走势符合我们此前预期,今天周一亚洲电子盘期价继续下跌表现------美豆油短线角度的回落整理走势行情延续中,我们继续保持短空观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,今天周一盘面追随美盘豆油亚洲电子盘疲软走势期价中阴下跌,短线的下挫疲软态势开始明显,我们继续短空思维对待。但考虑到内盘 “国庆”“中秋节”2大节日马上临近(10月1日---8日 放假8天),本周为最后一个交易周,因此上我们还要提前考虑到“规避风险”因素,所以从本周开始逢低空单平仓离场纳入我们的操作理念当中来。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11月),在上周五9月22日因公共假期停盘一天后,今天周一开盘交易。早盘跳空低开“补跌”,期价下挫幅度较大,短线角度的回落整理行情延续中,未来后市当期价逐步靠近下方60天均线位置附近时候,我们同样建议空单逢低兑现离场操作模式。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线角度的回落整理走势延续中,期价开始出现下坠加速迹象。只因大陆内盘临近长假期,在本周剩余时间内------我们建议内盘马盘油脂商品短线空单做好逢低平仓离场的提前心理准备,每个人可以根据个人的预期盈利目标不同,自由选择平仓离场点的机会把握(包括仓单分批量平仓数量),我们只建议在本周5天交易结束时----全部平仓完毕!以规避因长假期所带来的不确定因素影响。

[SUMMARY]
• Downtrend of global edible oils continues, as a downward correction is in the progress.
• China is having a long holiday in the upcoming week.

[ACTION]
• In China and Malaysia market, traders who are holding short positions may reduce positions when the prices are low.
• Traders may close-out all positions before end of this week.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 25 September 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices are balancing well above USD50 /barrel and might rise higher this week. Technically, we notice the support has firmed up at USD49 /barrel and will be threading from this aforementioned support to USD53 /barrel. Beside the recent production cut in OPEC and U.S. shale oil, we shall observe the Dollar trend as a potential lead factor to estimate an inverse relationship to Crude prices.

Gold

Gold prices dipped down to USD1290 /oz last week after piercing beneath USD1310 /oz support. Market is now testing the secondary support and should be recovering soon in due time. An impending strengthening in Euro after German election may revive higher against Dollar that will push yellow metal into new demand. This week, we reckon the trend will trade higher while ranging from...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 18 September 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded in firm demand last week but still failed to pierce above USD51 /barrel. As the second largest OPEC producer, Iraq is having internal squabble as the oil-rich Northern Province proposes for a referendum to become independent. This week, we reckon the trend will move within USD48 – USD51 /barrel range but shooting above the resistance will lead to new bullish trend in the Crude demand.

Gold

Gold prices take a breather from recent high USD1357 /oz and makes correction. This week, the market might drive down to USD1310 /oz before recovering for another new uptrend till year end. Bullish sentiment stays vibrant for yellow metal as Dollar trend stays weak. Range is expected to move from USD1310 – USD1350 /oz in mixed sentiment.

Silver

Silver prices has taken...

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London Attacked by Terrorism Claimed by IS

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 18 September 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. inflation shows sign of recovery that may lead to rate hike this week. China stays on track of inflation with resilient consumer prices. U.K. is attacked by terrorism for the fifth time that injured 29 casualties. North Korea indulges in defiance again by firing a new missile test over Japan.

The U.S. producer prices rose 0.2 percent in August from prior month and highest in 4-month record. Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August and best in 7 months. Excluding food and energies, core prices grew 0.2 percent and matched forecast.

American claims for unemployment benefits declined to 284,000 ended9 September and lower than forecast. Another report on retail sales slid 0.2 percent in August while core sales expanded 0.2 percent, both were below forecast.

China's consumer prices...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 11 September 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices are soaring as Hurricane Irma is approaching from Atlantic Ocean as the most powerful storm in a century. Gas and oil prices are beginning to rise as output sinks tremendously. Florida Government has shut down 2 nuclear plants before the storm hits Florida Peninsula to ensure safety. This week, we reckon the market will thread from USD47 – USD50 /barrel in tight range. However, there is high possibility to observe the trend above USD50 /barrel and initiate a new buying interest due to weaker greenback and supply cut in energy production.

Gold

Gold prices charted 1-year high above USD1350 /oz on Friday inversely to Dollar weakness. General commodity prices led by Gold and Crude might soar in September in the expectation of flight out from Dollar to Euro. This...

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Dollar Falls while Euro Surges on Expected Inflation

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 11 September 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The Dollar falls amid resignation of Vice Chairman of Federal Reserve. Jobless claims increase to 2-1/2 high signaling slow recovery in job market. European Central Bank holds policy unchanged while President Draghi emphasizes on inflation growth. U.K. faces slowdown in housing output.

The U.S. factory orders fell 3.3 percent in July and worst since December 2014. Trade deficits narrowed to USD43.7 billion in July and better than consensus.

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management says the services index expanded to 55.3 in August against 53.9 in July. Another report on weekly claims for jobless benefits rose to 298,000 for the week ended 2 September.

The U.S. Congress has passed a bill to provide USD8 billion aid to relief Hurricane Harvey and extend debt limit till 15 December. The deal was...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 5 September 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been staying sluggish despite general commodities rose last week. Some buying interest are seen in market but the demand could not push up to USD50 /barrel. This week, we expect the movement to be constricted from USD46 – USD49 /barrel unless there is a breakout beyond this range. We hope to see a raise in Crude prices as supply cut from U.S. production may be positive to lift he demand soon.

Gold

Gold prices ascended on dual events last week after the North Korea fired missile over Japan and Friday after American payroll grew at slower pace. Market reaches 10-month record as yellow metal rises above USD1320 / oz. This week, we predict the trend will rise to USD1340 /0z before profit-taking comes into market. Support is...

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