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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 April 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices continue to climb at 3-1/2 year high while almost reaching USD70 /barrel before weekend. The week-chart has clearly shown the bullish factor has stepped into market for coming weeks with strong momentum. In case of falling back, we reckon support will emerge at USD65 /barrel and quick recovery is expected. Market may simply trade within the price range from USD65 – USD70 /barrel for coming weeks.

Gold

Gold prices have been trading sideways like we predicted last week. Range is rather tight from USD1320 – USD1360 /oz amid mixed sentiment. Other than Crude prices surge, there is no movement in Dollar Index which could be the reason for triggering sideways in yellow metal. This week, we foresee similar market sentiment unless the trend goes beyond the aforementioned range...

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UK Slows in Economic Progress amid BREXIT

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 23 April 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy continues to progress as housing data hints to inflation. China stays on growing track after Q1 GDP grows 6.8 percent. U.K. falls in inflation and retail demand as BREXIT looms.

The U.S. retail sales rose 0.6 percent in March, above forecast and highest in past 4 months. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, grew 0.2 percent. Industrial production including utilities and mines rose 0.5 percent in March.

American building permits rose 1.35 million in March on annualized rate. Another report on housing starts expanded 1.32 million and above forecast. The U.S. jobless claims for the week ended 14 April steadied at 232,000 cases.

The U.S. government issues new sanction and 7-year ban on Chinese smartphone maker ZTE, after the phone maker was caught shipping goods to Iran...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 16 April 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices broke the 4-year high above USD67 /barrel and settled above this level on Friday. Technically, we foresee a strong support at USD65 /barrel moving forward. If this support could guard well and subject to political tension deteriorates in Syria, there is a high possibility to expect WTI Crude reaching USD70 /barrel in near future. General commodity will be affected on higher demand too.

Gold

Gold prices challenged 3-month high by almost reaching USD1366 /oz and receded before weekend. This week, we predict the trend will run amok within USD1320 – 1360 /oz with unclear directional headway. Basically, market sentiment is subject to the geo-political tension in Syria warfare and will be unpredictable. However, we advise risk control to be exercised in case the trend breaks beyond the aforementioned...

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U.S. Lead Airstrike against Syria

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 16 April 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. President Trump express enthusiasm to re-enter a new agreement of Trans-Pacific Pact (TPP). America leads airstrike against Syria that infuriates Russia. British housing prices stay robust at more than 1 year high.

The U.S. producer prices rose 0.3 percent in March while core prices gained 0.3 percent, both above forecast. Consumer prices slid 0.1 percent in March and sank into negative figure for first time in 10 months. Excluding food and energy, core prices rose 0.2 percent and matched forecast.

American jobless claims for the week ended 7 April were reported at 233,000 cases. President Trump says his administration will look into re-entering Trans-Pacific Pact for negotiating new deal with bilateral partiers on fair ground.

On Friday, U.S. led a missile strike against Syrian...

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China Retaliates Import Tariff on U.S. Products

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 9 April 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. weekly claims grows to highest in 12 weeks. Non-farm payroll grows 103,000 below forecast and shocked market. China raises import tariff on American goods as retaliation. U.K. sees a slowdown in building and services that could have been affected from BREXIT threat.

The U.S. ISM manufacturing index grew 59.3 in March and below forecast. Another separate report by the same institution on services index rose 58.8 in March and matched consensus.

The U.S. weekly claims increased to 242,000 for the week ended 31 March. The U.S. non-farm payroll added only 103,000 in March and surprised market that compared to revised 326,000 in previous month. Unemployment rate at 4.1 percent.

China's Caixin manufacturing index maintained in growth at 51.0 reading in March, above 50.0 benchmark. Another...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 9 April 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices slid before weekend despite unmoved Dollar prices. The decline was mainly due to U.S. – China trade dispute that worried investors. This week, we forecast the range to be moving slightly lower while contain within USD60 – USD64 /barrel. Market sentiment has returned to neutral zone again unless the demand is able to ascend above USD64 /barrel level and regain investors' confidence.

Gold

Gold prices have been consolidating at USD1330 /oz area without showing a clear directional headway. This week, we reckon the trend may travel in either direction while depending on fundamental news. Market traders become wary of U.S. President and his words on unexpected catalyst. We remain conservative to project the market range from USD1310 – USD1360 /oz in case of market swings in either direction.

Silver

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U.S. GDP Grows 2.9 Percent in Q4 Seasons

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 2 April 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The market was quiet throughout last week with Good Friday as holiday seasons. American weekly claims for jobless benefits fall to 4 weeks' low record. U.K. trade deficits narrow while GDP grows in line with forecast.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence in March grew 127.2 but lower than forecast and dropped from previous month revised at 130.0. Pending home sales rose 3.1 percent in February and highest in 4 months. Final GDP for Q4 seasons grew 2.9 percent.

The U.S. consumer spending grew 0.2 percent in February and matched forecast. Jobless claims fell to 215,000 in the week ended 24 March and best in 4 weeks' record.

Japan's retail sales grew 1.6 percent in February on year basis. Core consumer prices in Tokyo rose 0.8 percent in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 2 April 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded in small range while resisted beneath USD66 /barrel last week. The Shanghai Futures Exchange launched its first Crude Oil Futures contract on 26 March with settlement in Yuan. Analysts believe the physical import in Yuan settlement will be implemented before year-end. This week, we are consistent in our view of the market to be contained from USD63 – USD66 /barrel.

Gold

Gold prices were resisted at USD1360 /oz last week as we predicted. The market has moved into a correction that is believed to be short-termed. This week, we reckon strong demand will rise at USD1320 /oz for driving the trend into a sideways trend. In case of falling, bargain-hunting will emerge at USD1305 /oz area while Dollar Index (USDX) is still capped beneath 90.50 level. For...

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Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rate by 25 BP

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 26 March 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rate for the first time in 2018 and after Powell became the chairman. Fear of global trade war initiated by U.S, Government plummet the stock market prices. Bank of England holds policy unchanged but hint rate hike could be coming in May.

The U.S. existing home sales rose 5.54 million in February, highest in past 3 months. Another report on trade deficits widened in Q4 with USD128 billion, worse than USD101 billion deficits in previous quarter.

The U.S. order for durable goods rose 3.1 percent in February on monthly basis, while core durable goods excluding the transport equipment grew 1.2 percent. Both data are above forecast. Weekly claims at 229,000 for the week ended 17 March and matched expectation.

On the FOMC...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 26 March 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices has also moved to near resistance area near to USD65 /barrel. This week, we predict tight range will be seen from USD63 – USD66 /barrel range. In the unexpected circumstances, the market may break above USD66 /barrel and move higher to reach out for USD70 /barrel in case of some fundamentals. In fact, the replacement of John Bolton as U.S. National Security Advisor has been anticipated to give negative impact on Iranian Deal that could drive up oil prices soon.

Gold

Gold prices rose from USD1310 /oz and closed at USD1347 /oz before weekend. Technically, we reckon the trend is near to resistance area which could meet profit-taking above USD1350 /oz this week. The market will probably be prone to strong demand this week while trading from USD1330 –...

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