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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 20 October 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

General commodities stayed resilient last week as central banks worldwide reiterated stimulus or lower interest rates to sail through economic recovery. Gold tried hard to test 1250.00 resistances while Crude stays above 80.00 floor supports. EIA reports the weekly crude inventory grew 8.96 million barrels above forecast and put pressure on energy prices amid small technical recovery. USDX has been trading in sideways touching 84.00 supports amid some selling interest and manages to support commodity prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices are supported at 80.00 levels while market closed at 82.85 for weekend. Technically, we reckon the resistance will be very strong at 85.00 levels as market will be trading from 80.00 – 85.00 ranges. However, beware of overboard short-covering in case the buying sentiment breaks above 85.00 and reach 88.00 regions. Crude prices have...

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China will Inject New stimulus to Bank Lenders

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 20 October 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US job market continues to recover though other sectors remain sluggish. China pledges to inject second round of injection before year-end. Eurozone sinks into slowdown while Greece's sovereign debt returns in threat. UK surprises with inflation fall though job market has improved.

The US core retail sales in September contracted to minus 0.2 percent. Producer prices also slid to minus 0.1 percent against positive median forecast. However, budget deficit shrank in September to lowest record in last fiscal year with shortfall at USD483.4 billion compared with USD680.2 billion a year earlier.

US jobless claims for the week ended 11 October dropped 23,000 to 264,000 numbers. Job market continues to recover on weekly basis. Industrial production rose 1.0 percent in September and better than expectation. Another separate report on housing starts climbed...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 6 October 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Commodities in Gold and Crude prices plunged after US shown better growth in payrolls in September. Gold erases the yearly gains since January while Crude broke the USD90.0 supports amid higher global supplies. In October, Crude may make its biggest slump in more than 2 years after Saudi Arabia signaled its willingness to start a price war with other OPEC members. The push-down on commodities prices is further aggravated by rising USD Index trend and recovering stock prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have broken down below 91.00 strong supports and turned this price band into resistance now. This week, we expect the market to tease around 90.00 benchmarks initially but the emergence of new selling trend will easily take the trend down to 86.00 as our next targets. Pay attention to the OPEC fundamentals...

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The US Payroll Boosts Stock Rise

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 6 October 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US surprises market by robust growth in workforce that lifts the stock sentiments. Japan indicates optimism in capital spending among big manufacturers but consumer spending remains sluggish. Britain grows in economy amid widening deficit in current account.

The US conference board of consumer confidence dropped to 86.0 in September from revised 93.4 in prior month. The US Institute for Supply Management's index dropped to 56.6 from 59 in August, showing slowdown in factory momentum. Another service index from the same institute fell to 58.6 in September from the prior month 59.6, however holding the highest quarterly performance in Q3 average reading since the 2004.

American jobless claims slid 8,000 to 287,000 in the week ended 27 September. The monthly payrolls boosted 248,000 workers in September while unemployment rate was down to...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 September 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Commodities whipsaw last week after the FED Yellen commented faster interest rates rise may come sooner. USDX trend persisted in climbing higher above 85.50 levels that put lid on both Gold and Crude prices. Dow Jones benchmarks also swung sideways after reacting to the war tension of attack against Syrian ISIS militant forces. Crude oil inventories shrank 4.3 million barrels in prior week but did not help to push the prices up in market.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been supported at 90.50 bottoms and prone to trade higher in little technical recovery. Strength in USD index has been major reasons for putting the demand at low levels while investors are following closely on the development of war tension in Ukraine in Syria. This week, we foresee the market will likely trade higher at...

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The US Grows 4.6 Percent Annualized Rates

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 September 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US homes sales fare inconsistently recovery while orders for durable goods slide. American growth gains highest since 2011. Japan stagnates in inflation growth though there has been slight gain after pushed by sales-tax rise. German slides in both essential economic data and nudges European Central Bank to plan quick stimulus before drastic slowdown.

The US existing home sales slid 1.8 percent to 5.05 million annual rates from 5.14 million rates in July. Another report on new home sales gained 504,000 in August and boosted the market housing confidence, after it jumped higher than prior month's revised date of 427,000 sales.

The orders for US durable goods in August dropped 18.2 percent and worse than median forecast. First-time jobless claims climbed 12,000 to 293,000 in the week ended 20 September, compared to revised...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 September 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold declined again last week to 1220.00 regions as US stocks climbed to new historical highs. Weekly Crude inventories reported by EIA stocked up 3.7 million barrels that pushed the prices at low side. Last week, attention was staked at listing of Alibaba.com in NYSE and voting for independence in Scotland. They drove the US stock prices higher that edged the commodity prices lower and lifted US Dollar. Euro and Pound resumed into weakness on late session before weekend.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices tested the 95.00 resistances last week and fell as we expected. The market is still in low demand due to increasing weekly stockpiles and skyrocketing USDX trend. This week, the market is likely to trade sideways while range is still constricted from 91.00 – 95.00 areas. However, we foresee there might...

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Scotland Votes for Non-Independence

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 September 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US FED maintains path to cut another USD10 billion stimulus while Yellen vows to keep low interest rates. Japan improves in trade balance and increases national household asset net worth through the economic reforms. UK celebrates reunion after Scotland voted for non-independence and ended the worries of economic breakup with England.

The US industrial production shrank 0.1 percent in August against positive forecast. Producer prices grew at par in August after rising 0.1 percent in July. Core producer prices stayed stagnant at 0.1 gains in-line with previous month.

Another US inflation measure through consumer prices unexpectedly declined 0.2 percent in August and core prices stayed at par. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment climbed to 59 exceeding the highest estimate, from 55 in August.

American jobless claims decreased by 36,000...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 15 September 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold persisted in declining last week after USDX surged higher to 84.50 regions before weekend. Yellow metal closed at 1230.00 on Friday while WTI Crude prices also settled at 92.00 levels after traders unwound the long positions from geo-political premiums. Weekly Crude inventory decreased 1 million barrels in-line with forecast and expectation of US interest rate hike over year-end continues to push Dollar higher.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded sideways while supported at 90.50 bottoms last week. The market is heading for weakening sentiment as inflation remains meager in the US and China economy. This week, we reckon the trend might test 90.00 benchmarks if Dollar strength stays resilient. Otherwise, trading in slightly strong buying interest will be capped under 94.50 resistances in case of short-covering.

Gold

Gold prices broke below the 1240.00 supports last...

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European Central Bank Urges for Economic Reform

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 8 September 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US budget deficit shrinks as core retail sales steadies. Japanese Yen weakens due to strengthening Dollar despite Bank of Japan have been refraining from injecting more stimulus. German remains resilient in trade surplus while European Central Bank urges for economic reform.

American jobless claims increased to 315,000 for the week ended 6 September and above median forecast. Another report on budget deficit narrowed 22 percent in first 11 months of fiscal year as economy recovers. Shortfall shows USD589.2 billion from October through August compared with USD755.3 billion gaps in the same period a year earlier.

The US core retail sales excluding auto sales rose 0.3 percent in August, same as revised data in previous month. Dollar is still strengthening against European currencies in-lieu of fear in interest rate increment as stimulus will...

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