Dow Jones Closes at Record High

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 13 May 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. stock markets triumph to new historical highs after leading indicators rebounded in April. Other data including jobless benefits and inflation measure are weak in U.S. economy. Japan's economy expanded in Q1 and Abe's government is favored by investors for leading the economic recovery. Euro area sees a jump in exports despite the economy has recorded a consecutive decline for six quarters as of end of March.

The U.S. retail sales advanced 0.1 percent in April. Import-price index slid 0.5 percent after followed 0.2 percent decline in March. Another separate report shows industrial production dropped 0.5 percent in April by worst decline in past 8 months.

The U.S. Commerce Department reports factory gate-price shed 0.7 percent after falling 0.6 percent in March. Another data that measures inflation benchmark reported consumer prices down...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 20 May 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The Dow Jones Average Index (DJIA) closed at new historical high on Friday at 15,354 levels. The market was pushed up by leading indicators that showed 0.6 percent gain for the outlook in coming 3-6 months. Japan shows recovery growth in Q1 by 3.5 percent annualized gains and rising Nikkei stocks have been pulled up by weakening Yen. The Eurozone data are pretty neutral due to a consecutive decline in GDP for sixth quarter in Q1. However, exports rose 2.8 percent in March with trade surplus EUR18.7 billion.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices rose on Friday due to gains in leading indicators despite new heights in Dollar rise. This week, we predict the trend will be capped by 98.00 resistances while selling interest will begin to emerge at 97.50 areas. Keep a lookout for the weekly Crude oil inventories...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 13 May 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The Dow Jones markets and Asia equities have been climbing in bullish sentiments due to improvement in U.S. economy. FED Chairman reiterates of continual stimulus at USD85 Billion monthly and low interest rates to suppress the unemployment rate below 6.5 percent. The USD/JPY rate also crosses above 100.00 benchmarks in 4-year record and weakening Yen helps in lifting stocks in Asia hours. We foresee regional stock markets will continue in bullish trends in coming week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have behaved in resilient patterns at 96.00 areas. Despite higher Dollar, this market has been staying strong due to tremendous cut in inventory holdings. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) reports the Crude inventory for week ended 4 May contracted to 200,000 barrels and much below the expectation of 2.1 Million barrels. This week, reckon the market will trend form 93.00...

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Bernanke Reassures Low Interest Rate

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 13 May 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. stock markets stay in strong sentiment amid job growth recovery in economy. Bernanke reassures of low interest rates and monthly stimulus so long as unemployment floats above 6.5 percent. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi stresses again that policymakers are prepared to cut rate further should economy deteriorate. However, analysts remain dubious and foresee rates will remain steady till at least 2015.

The U.S. jobless benefits claimed by unemployed citizens decreased by 4,000 to 323,000 in the week ended 4 May. The rise in recent payrolls and contractions in claims prove quantitative easing policy taking effects. On Friday, FED Chairman Bernanke said that policymakers will remain USD85 Billion monthly stimulus and keep rates at record low so long as unemployment stays above 6.5 percent.

The U.S. budget surplus increased...

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European Central Bank Cuts Rate

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 6 May 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. consumer spending and consumer confidence both rise in optimism. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement shows continual supports to monthly stimulus but at weaker voice by U.S. policymakers. European Central Bank (ECB) cuts rates by 25 basis points and lifts stock markets in general sentiment. Market analyst feel the ECB should have reduced half a percent to be more adamant in salvaging market slowdown.

The U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2 percent in March after a 0.7 percent increase the prior month. Another report on Conference Board’s sentiment index shows consumer confidence climbed to 68.1 in April and exceeding the highest estimate. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 cities rose 9.3 percent in February from a year ago, proving recovery in housing slump.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s factory...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 6 May 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. non-farm payroll for April grew 165,000 while unemployment hit 4-year low at 7.5 percent. Dow Jones Average Index (DJIA) crossed above 15,000 benchmarks for the first time amid falling U.S treasuries. Last Thursday, the Federal Reserve released its FOMC statement in maintaining the monthly stimulus of USD85 Billion with no added surprise. In Eurozone, the central bank cut 25 basis points and spiked the stock markets. Hence, we foresee Asia stock markets will be resilient in bullish trend in coming week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices broke above previous resistance at 94.80 levels and reached 96.00 highs on Friday. The better-than-expected U.S. payroll data boosted the stock market as well as commodity prices on high bands. This week, it is hard to predict the probable trend but we reckon the range may move from 92.50 – 97.50 regions....

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Yen Resurges After BOJ Meeting

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 15 April 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. shows unstable recovery from below expected gain Q1 despite mild demand in housing markets have grown. Japan central bank meeting disappoints traders with no commitment in more stimuli and spikes Yen rise. The Britain avoids a triple recession after the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) rose 0.3 percent in Q1.

The U.S. existing home sales slid 0.6 percent in March to 4.92 million annual rates. Another report shows new home sales in rose 1.5 percent to a 417,000 annual pace, above median forecast. Demands for durable goods slumped in March by most in past 7 months when bookings fell 5.7 percent after a revised 4.3 percent gain the prior month.

The U.S. jobless claims fell 16,000 in the week ended April 20 to 339,000, the lowest since 9 March. On Friday, the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 Apr 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Last Friday, the Bank of Japan held its central meeting and reiterated its support to boost money supply. However, no finite commitment and directive for next stimulus were indicated, hence bludgeoned the USD/JPY market amid rising yen value. The U.S. Commerce Department also reported growth in first quarter grew 2.5 percent annual rate but still under forecast. Dow Jones markets and commodities across the board landed on lower prices amid selling sentiments.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices were making technical recovery while following the Gold trend in last week’s ascension. This week, we foresee the market will be topped at 95.00 resistances and moving down is more likely to occur for profit-taking. The Crude trend may trade weaker till 90.00 benchmarks if Gold prices lead the softer trend. Abandon your short-view if the trend pierces above 95.00 resistances.

Gold

Gold...

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Commodities Plunge Amid China Data

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 April 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy remains little changed with increasing housing starts amid contracting inflation. G20 meeting begins with Yen devaluing further as no leader protests against currency weakening in Japan. China sees growth at less than 8 percent for 4 consecutive quarters that hammer the commodity demands.

The U.S. National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence dropped to 42 in April from prior month 44, the lowest since October. Housing starts for March climbed 7 percent to a 1.04 million annual and recovered to highest record since June 2008. Another report shows consumer price index shed 0.2 percent after 0.7 gains in February, due to price drop in energies. Core reading rose 0.1 percent and less than forecast.

The U.S. Federal Reserve says the U.S. economic expansion remains "moderate" amid...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 Apr 2013

The Gold prices continue to plummet from last Monday after the China data. The Chinese government reports the Q1 growth at 7.7 percent which marks a fourth consecutive gain at less than 8 percent in past decade. Gold and Crude prices tumble in fear of contracting demands. Analysts expect global policymakers may adopt more easing stimulus to recover commodity demands in coming months. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi comments the economic situation in the 17-nations remains no improvement since the last meeting on 4 April.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices reached 85.61 lows last week and met bargain hunting from the bottoms. This week, we reckon the trend will trade from 86.00 – 89.00 ranges in consolidation. Moving up above 89.00 immediate resistances may initiate further recovery to 90.20 targets. Technically, we expect the crude demands to stay at this bottom range for few weeks in tandem with fundamental influence...

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