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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 19 January 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude prices began to trade in gradual recovery last week as plunge slowed down. Gold prices surged especially after the Euros and Dollar fell against Swiss Franc. Swiss National Bank announces the release of currency peg at 1.2 to Euros and alarmed the global market. Dollar index continues to gain higher and puts lid on general commodity prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices seem to stabilize from falling last week. The market trend will be very tricky this week as piecing above 50.00 resistances might recover at 55.00 areas. However, failing to recover will pose danger in another decline below 45.00 levels again. Fundamentally, the higher prices escalating in yellow metal could hammer the Crude supports with a possibility to test 40.00 bottoms.

Gold

Gold prices closed at 1280.00 regions after surging...

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Swiss National Bank Release Peg to Euros

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 19 January 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The US retail prices contracts with producers' cost due to falling crude prices. Consumer prices plunge amid rising consumer sentiment quoted in preliminary report. Japan trade surplus improves in economic outlook. Swiss franc rises after the Swiss National Bank announced the release of peg to Euros, causing unwarranted panic in market for falling against Euros and Dollar.

The US retail sales contracted at minus 0.9 percent in December and lower than expectation. The core prices excluding auto sales also slid to minus 0.1 percent after grew 0.1 percent in November. Producer prices slid to minus 0.3 percent in January. Excluding food and energy, core prices rose 0.3 percent and better than median expectation.

American unemployment claims for the week ended 10 January rose to 316,00 against 297,000...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 12 January 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude broke below USD50 per barrel last week at 5 year low record after OPEC governors said supply output will stay unchanged. However, yellow metal prices climbed throughout the week as major equity prices began to sink. America added 252,000 jobs in December while FOMC minutes reiterated the unlikelihood to raise rates in first semester of the year. Dollar continues to stay strong and suppress on European currencies and general commodity prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices indicate fragility in the supporting demand while staying resilient at 55.00 selling pressures. This week, we foresee a difficulty to predict the trend as it is subject to either direction. The market might make technical recovery at 55.00 since it has been dropping for past 6 months without pull-up correction. Otherwise, the bear may also...

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America Adds More Jobs in Non-Farm Payrolls

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 12 January 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The US adds more jobs into monthly payrolls with narrowing trade deficit. Policymakers reiterate on low interest rates to maintain recovery rate. German slows down in economic momentum while initiate estimate for inflation in Eurozone will decline. Bank of England remains keeps interest rate unchanged to ensure economic recovery.

The US Institute of Supply Management states the service index for December fell to 56.2 against the previous month 59.3, causing worries for retail demand amid recovery. Trade deficit narrowed to USD39 billion in December versus revised USD42.2 billion deficits in prior month.

The US FOMC meeting minutes release emphasized on maintaining low rates to support recovery in economy. FED chair Yellen foresees no rate rates before mid year to keep the growth in steady rate. Another report on initial...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 December 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dollar is trading higher amid holiday seasons and thin market liquidity. Dollar index surges in more than 8-year high record above 90.00 levels and puts lid on most commodity prices. Crude prices were staying bearish and closed below 55.00 on Friday’s settlement. The Gold prices have been trading in weak demand but climbed from 1177.00 to 1195.00 close before weekend in responding to China’s stimulus speculation.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading in weak demand after Saudi Arabia reiterated no cut in oil supply in 2015 despite plunge in prices. The day-chart has indicated a congested flag formation with possibility to see a breakout soon. Technically, we reckon the resistance will lie at 57.50 levels in case of upward retracement. However, downside potential is still opened to rooms at...

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The US Economy Picks Up 5 Percent in Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 December 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The global market has a short week due to Christmas season. American housing market proves sluggish in recovery despite economy growth jumps. Japan enjoys moderate consumer growth while UK moves in steady economic acceleration.

The US existing homes slumped in November from 1-year high, underscoring rough tides on road to recovery. Home purchases fell 6.1 percent to a 4.93 million annual rate, showing the weakest reading since May, from a 5.25 million pace in October.

Another separate report on American new home sales unexpectedly declined in November to a 4-month low, following slide in existing home sales. New home sales dropped 1.6 percent to a 438,000 annualized pace after expanded 445,000 annual rate in October that was weaker than previously estimated.

American economy grew 5 percent annual rate...

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Global Markets Analysis – 22 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

22.12.2014 周一 油脂成交清淡;观望气氛浓厚

美元指数经过短暂整理之后,近几日又出现短线的走强迹象,但90.00至92.00一线的前高技术压力依旧存在,后市美元存在挑战前高的要求,是否依旧阻挡尚待观察。

美原油上周见低点53.61后小幅走高,本周一在57.00至58.00一线徘徊,短线出现横盘迹象。

美豆油近期走势出现模糊,3月合约延续右侧横盘震荡,期价变化不大走势无新意。

大陆内盘油脂商品震荡下挫走势,市场表现疲软,成交略显清淡,多空观望气氛较浓。

马盘毛总棕榈油基准2月,周一早盘高开低走,成交萎靡,依旧2100至2200之间上下震荡。

小结:全球油脂商品成交不旺,市场缺少人气。在美原油未出现明确止跌前,油脂类商品恐仍将短线呈震荡走势,临近年末,多空主力观望气氛较浓,现阶段油脂商品操作意义不大,个人认为散户朋友短线操作上要么逢高继续短空日内平仓,要么场外观望,完全没必要横盘震荡时候恋战。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 December 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Last Tuesday, Gold swung up after Central Bank of Russia raised the benchmark rates to 17.0 percent for defending receding Ruble. FED Yellen spoke after mid week in FOMC meeting of assuring low interest at least for next few couple of meetings to prevent stock clump. DJIA recovered more than 50 percent range from recent falls and pulled up global equity markets. Crude prices remain weak below 60.00 and might continue to threaten oil exporting countries though OPEC nations have remained silent on the oil slump this round.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude reached 5-1/2 year low at 53.60 levels last week. Market is still bearish though we reckon some buying back actions are expected before end of December. This week, we foresee strong resistance will emerge at 60.00 – 65.00 but the...

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Bank of Japan Resumes Weak Yen Policy

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 December 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US recovery on housing markets proves feeble while inflation remains weak due to slump in oil prices. FED governor Yellen promises to keep rates low and revive bullish sentiment in stock markets. Japan is ready for next phase of recovery after Shinzo Abe re-won his seat as Prime Minister. UK job market gets better at lowest unemployment rate since 2008.

The US industrial production grew 1.3 percent in November and higher than expected, after rising at revised 0.1 percent in October. The housing starts declined 1.6 percent, the first drop since August, to 1.03 million annualized rate from a revised 1.05 million pace in October. Building permits also dropped to 1.04 million annualized rates from 1.09 million in October.

American inflation measured by consumer prices contracted 0.3...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 15 Dec 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude prices cause alarm to market as it stretches down to 4-1/2 year low at USD57.00 regions. Selling pressure came after the Saudi Oil Minister said their will maintain market share production and do not favor supply cut. Gold prices spiked up to 1238.00 regions last week and traded sideways at 1220.00 areas before weekend. China reports industrial production slowed down by expanding 7.2 percent in November from a year ago compared to 7.7 percent in October. General commodities have been moving in weak sentiment.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have moved into a strong southward journey after the comment of Saudi Government Minister. This week, we reckon the bears will continue to engulf the market and bring the prices down to 50.00 floors before profit-taking occurs. Topside resistance will...

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