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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 19 June 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have broken the previous support at USD46 /barrel and has turned this region into strong resistance in coming week. Technically, we forecast the bears may dip further to test the USD42 /barrel while possible trap in sideways trend from USD42 – USD46 /barrel range. Global glut remains an issue for completing with Crude prices and focus will turn to Dollar direction for influencing the energy prices.

Gold

Gold prices headed down for correction as we predicted last week. Trend approached the USD1250 /oz before weekend but slowdown in selling activity is noticed. This week, we reckon the trend will be well supported at USD1240 /oz that is confluent with the EMA200 line strongly ambushed with bargain-hunting. Topside resistance is seen at USD1270 /oz for the time being while...

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US FED Hike Rates by 25 BP Again

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 19 June 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest by 25 basis points for the second time this year. Bank of Japan and Bank of England remains unchanged in monetary policy. China maintains growth while in U.K. sees a decline in average earning among the citizens.

The U.S. producer prices stayed flat in May on monthly comparison. Core prices, excluding food and energy, gained 0.3 percent. Another separate report on consumer prices shrank 0.1 percent in May while core prices, excluding food and energy, also rose only 0.1 percent. Both data were below forecast.

American core retail prices, exclude automobiles, shrank 0.3 percent and worst in past 10 months. Weekly claims for jobless benefits dropped to 237,000 in the week ended 10 June and lower than 245,000 in previous week.

Industrial production was...

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U.K. Conservative Party Fails to Secure as Government

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 12 June 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. is facing ordeal as President Trump faces the investigation on his supposed collusion to Russians. European Central Bank is ready to extend stimulus as the package will end in December. U.K. election results in hung parliament after the Conservatives fail to secure majority seats.

The U.S. ISM services index for May expanded to 56.9 and matched forecast. Markit reports the services index rose to 53.8 in May and lower than previous month 54.0. American jobless claims reduced to 245,000 in the week ended 3 June and lower than revised 255,000 in previous week.

The testimony given by ex-FBI director James Comey in the investigation against President Trump might pinpoint Trump’s obstruction to justice. According to Comey, he was asked to halt investigation on Flynn that might be linked...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 12 June 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Yellow metal hit double-top formation last week at USD1296 /oz before market slid. Middle East and UAE countries severe diplomatic ties and transport links with Qatar on last Monday pursuant to its link to Islamist militants like Muslim Brotherhood. Uncertainty arises due to investigation on President Trump and North Korea fires new missile test have injected discomfort into equity market. Precious metals are being sought after as safe haven.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded on low edge around USD46 /oz amid light activity as investors distracted to European fundamentals last week. This week, we foresee the Dollar Index (USDX) movement resulting from FOMC meeting will create an impact to Crude trend. Technically, the market may move in tight range from USD45 – USD48 /barrel but the likelihood of driving beneath USD45 /barrel...

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U.S. Withdraws from Paris Climate Treaty

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 05 June 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. President Trump pulls out from Paris Climate Treaty and sparks unhappiness from Eurozone partners. American payroll fails to meet the forecast and reveals growth pace before expectation. Chinese Yuan surges after overnight borrowing rate hikes. Pound falls after survey shows Theresa May might not manage well on BREXIT procedures.

The U.S. personal spending rose 0.4 percent in April and highest in past 4 months. The Conference Board of consumer confidence expanded 117.9 in May and below expectation.

Another separate report on U.S pending home sales contracted 1.3 percent in April and below median forecast. ISM manufacturing index rose 54.9 in May and matched forecast. Weekly claims for the week ended 27 May was 248,000 and higher than consensus.

American non-farm payroll grew 138,000 in May but failed to...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 05 June 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices surged confidently on Friday and closed at USD1278 /oz despite weakening payroll. Technically speaking, we foresee the trend may climb higher this week as short-covering may begin soon. Support is laid at USD1265 /oz and should not be violated if the bulls take charge further. We maintain our view unchanged on topside targeted aimed at USD1290 – USD1295 /oz before profit-taking occurs.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices is suffering from threats of global glut and competition from shale oil production. This week, we reckon the support must guard well at USD45 /barrel in order to prevent panic selling. Range is expected to move from USD47 – USD51 /barrel with a potential rebound due to weakening Dollar. Trade well with risk control as Crude trend is rather uncertain nowadays from increasing global...

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G7 Summit Pushes for Paris Climate Deal with Trump

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 May 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. President Trump visits NATO and attends G7 Summit for his first foreign visit after sworn-in to office. Moody’s downgrades China but meets rejection. Germany reports robust growth in manufacturing data. U.K. begins to slow ahead of BREXIT execution.

The U.S. new home sales expanded at 569,000 in April and lower than previous month revised at 642,000. Markit reports the manufacturing index at 52.5 in May and almost unchanged from last month.

American unemployment claims for the week ended 20 May poised at 234,000 and matched forecast. FOMC minutes released the contents of scaling down in balance sheet and preparation of rate hike possibly in June.

Another separate report on U.S. core orders for durable goods, excluding transport equipment, contracted 0.4 percent in April against a positive forecast. GDP...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 May 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices broke the resistance and settled at USD1266 /oz on Friday. This week, the trend might climb higher if it could stand firm above USD1245 /oz level. Ascension target aims at USD1290 /oz if further military threat erupts from North Korea or unexpected terrorism in European regions. Stay alert and do swing trades if the trend moves back into consolidation from USD1245 – USD1265 /oz range.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices once again exhibits strong resistance at USD52 /barrel after the price fell last week. Technically, we foresee selling activity will ambush at USD52 – USD54 barrel in near future but might trigger a short-squeeze if this hurdle is jeopardized. This week, we expect the range will thread from USD47 – USD51 /barrel which hovers around EMA200 line. The Dollar strength may...

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U.S. May Face Political Risk On Trump Investigation

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 May 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Department of Justice erects a new counsel to investigate President Trump after FBI chief James Comey was fired last week. China poises for steady growth while U.K. surges in inflation ahead of June poll.

The U.S. building permits expanded at 1.23 million in April and lower than median forecast. Another report on housing starts also dropped to 1.17 million from previous month 1.20 million.

The EIA reports on U.S. Crude inventory has been cut by 1.8 million barrels on weekly basis and spikes the oil prices. American jobless claims for the week ended 13 May reduced to 232,000 and better than forecast.

The U.S. may face political risk and resulted kneejerk in Dow Jones market on last week. The Department of Justice has appointed the former FBI director...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 May 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices poise for balance around USD1250 /oz before the weekend as demand rose. The recent bottom at USD1215 /oz might have formed a solid foundation with a shallow base expected to be formed at USD1235 /oz this week. In the event of piercing above USD1265 /oz resistance, we forecast the uptrend will aim at USD1285 /oz as our next target. Thus, focusing at fishing for bottom is preferred with risk control in coming weeks as Dollar recedes.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices regained to USD50 /barrel before weekend after President Trump stopped over at Saudi Arabia for state visit. Technically, we only foresee a sideways consolidation occurring in market and the range may probably swing from USD48 – USD52 /barrel in coming weeks while waiting for more fundamental leads. Dollar strength will...

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