Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Greece Wins New Bailout Amid Harsh Austerity

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 20 July 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. has slight inflation from producer prices report and jobless claims decline. FED Chair repeats her stance in rate hike sometime before year-end. Japan maintains monetary expansion at JPY80 trillion annually. Greece wins new bailout after devising newer and harsher austerity that antagonizes its citizens. British government is confident on embarking to the right recovery track.

The U.S. retail sales slip 0.3 percent in June, due to slowdown in consumer spending and weak recovery. Core sales, excluding automobiles, dropped 0.1 percent after growing 0.8 percent revised in May. Another report on factory output rose 0.3 percent in June against 0.2 percent decline in prior month.

American capacity utilization report shows 78.4 percent in resources used by manufacturing, mines and utilities etc. compared to 78.2 percent in May, reflecting slightly...

Read More

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 20 July 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold dipped further last week after USDX gained strength to 98.00 levels. Crude oil also traded lower to almost 50.00 benchmarks inversely to higher greenback. Last week, Iran has reached nuclear agreement with western power countries and China in exchange for lifting some sanctions. Analysts reckon energy prices will begin to decline as more oil supply will come from Tehran government.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded in small range last week but edged lower to 50.20 on Friday. Higher Dollar is pushing the Crude trend downward together with Iran news of sanction lifts. This week, we foresee support will emerge at 50.00 regions and probably see some rebound on short-covering. Resistance stays strong at 54.00 levels in case of sideways consolidation begins. Breaking below 50.00 supports will attempt lower grounds at 47.00...

Read More

Global Markets Analysis – 14 July 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong

14.07.2015 周二 美盘豆油站上60天均线

昨日周一晚间,美盘豆油12月合约中阳上涨,期价收盘于60天均线之上,今日周二亚洲电子盘期价仍运行在60天线上方,短线超跌后的反身向上行情进行中,后市当期价站稳60天均线系统,则早先的多头排列均线将恢复,个人仍以短多观点看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601合约,周二早盘低开高走红盘中阳报收,盘中多头主力增仓迹象明显,前期内盘油脂瞬间的跌幅较大,当前期价离上方60天均线较远,后市若美盘能继续保持在60天线上运行,内盘油脂将存在补涨机会。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,昨日周一红盘小阳收盘。今天周二早盘跳空高开,期价瞬间跳跃到日图表的60天均线之上,短线的反弹走势明显,后期若能得到美盘的支持以及成交量在上行过程中能有效放大,则后市仍看高一线。

小结:美黄豆延续前期的反弹走势发力上行,内盘豆粕长阳上涨,带动油脂商品的普遍走高。特别是美盘豆油与马盘棕榈油期价已经站短线关键技术阻挡位(60天线)之上,这给内盘油脂商品的多头主力带来做多热情,短线的反身向上行情延续中,个人继续短多观点看待。个人观点认为中长短周期下多单持有者继续持有。继续关注美盘豆油在站上60天线后是否出现发力迹象。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry...

Read More

Global Markets Analysis – 13 July 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong

13.07.2015 周一 密切关注美盘豆油在60天均线位置的表现

美盘豆油12月合约,在上周瞬间下破日图表上关键技术位置后,当前期价快速探底反身走强,在临近上方60天线位置积蓄能量,后市等待美盘给出更为明确的短线方向指引。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天周一早盘高开低走呈阴K线,下方7月9号的长下影线的阳K线,“金针探底”K线组合明显,在恐慌情绪过后,后市该瞬间的低位价格恐将不会再被触及,后市短线存在走强技术要求。不过在美盘豆油未突破60天线的阻挡(原先是支撑,目前是阻挡-支撑阻挡互换)前,内盘油脂商品将震荡上行等待美盘指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,上周7月8日的“早晨之星”K线语言明显,当前期价虽然未明显走高很多,但下方存在一定的明显支撑,当前期价震荡中等待方向,目前马棕榈油处于一个微妙情况下,当前位置短线上可上可下, 我们需要更多的关注美盘豆油已经周边市场的指引。

美盘原油短线下挫后已经连续5天横盘整理走势,盘中以时间换空间走势意图明显,不排除此走势仍延续时日。

中国股票市场上周末受政策性利好支持短线出现走强,中国政府对护盘中国股市信心充足,也完全有能力掌控市场节奏。

小结:油脂类商品经过上周惊心动魄的期价剧烈波动后,本周恐慌情绪已经得到初步控制,投资人心态渐稳。当前油脂商品的期价正在修复因恐慌造成伤害。在这微妙时刻,建议心态上即不要期望期价大幅上涨很多,但也不要看低很多,短线上尽量保持一个正常心态来对待当前市场,并且踏准短线节奏。短线角度我们以短多观点看待油脂商品,后市密切关注美盘豆油的方向指引。个人观点认为中长线多单在震荡中继续持仓不动。建议短线激进操作者的反手多单继续持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine...

Read More

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 13 July 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold dipped below 1150.00 supports last week but managed to close higher on weekend. Dollar pulled up to 97.00 highs last week and settled at 96.00 areas for weekend. Commodities stabilized in falls before weekend as Chinese stocks bounced off in recovery. Crude prices traded lower as global demand dropped. Iran nuclear deal is still in negotiation with Saudi Arabia and U.S. in exchange of lifting of sanctions.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices touched 50.60 lows last week after global commodities slid. The decline has been warned by us for past weeks but should be supported at 50.00 levels for time being. This week, we foresee the trend will make recovery by trading higher to 56.00 regions. Range is expected to move from 50.0 – 56.00 regions if no unexpected circumstances arise....

Read More

FED Chair Yellen Reiterates on Rate Hike

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 13 July 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. trade deficit widens due to higher Dollar and declining exports. FED Yellen stresses on rate hike may come on schedule before year-end. Greece stays in international limelight as debt rout remains unsolved. U.K. introduces budget cut by the newly formed government since May election. Monetary policy stays unchanged in Bank of England.

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management reports its service index expanded to 56.0 in June and higher than previous month 55.7. Trade deficit widened in May, fueled by a drop in exports and stronger Dollar. Trade gap widened to USD41.9 billion, lesser than forecast but higher than revised USD40.7 billon in April.

American weekly claims for job benefits rose to 297,000 in the week ended 4 July after the previous week was revised to 282,000. Another...

Read More

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 June 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold slid last week after Greece failed to reach debt repayment plan with European creditors. The Dollar index (USDX) also recovered from 94.00 to 95.00 regions that suppressed the prices of general commodities. The pressure of Greek possible default has lifted the Dollar and fuels headwinds to most commodity prices. Crude prices hold up well in-line of talks between international oil groups with Iran on developing nuclear deal.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been oscillating around 60.00 benchmarks for many weeks. The market is gradually forming a plateau formation that is prone to fall eventually. Technically, we remain the same technical view on projecting the market range from 57.00 – 62.00 in coming week. Only breaking beyond any side of this range constriction will lead into new trend direction. However, pay attention...

Read More

Greece Asks for Bailout Vote Beyond June

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 June 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing demand shows recovery in better annualized increment. Job claims remain steady in tight market while consumer sentiment rises. Attention has been staked in Greece on debt repayment before end June while Prime Minister Tsipras calls for another delayed vote on 5 July. Market investors are taking the Greek outcome as market benchmark for next week's trend.

The U.S. existing home sales increased 5.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.35 million units in May, the highest level since November 2009. Another separate report on new home sales rose 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000 units, the highest level since February 2008.

American core capital goods order rose 0.5 percent in May after it was revised at 0.2 percent contraction in April, signaling business...

Read More

Greece Faces Default by End June

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 June 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The FED policymakers stress on near zero interest rates but vote for rate hike before year-end. Japan central bank also pledges for consistent monetary expansion annually. European Central Bank (ECB) is facing challenge of Greece default after the failure of reaching a reform deal. Europe slides into alarm while investors keep eyes on this week's meeting outcome on lending countries.

The U.S. factory output declined 0.2 percent in May after it was revised at 0.5 percent contraction in April. Building permits grew 1.25 million annualized rates in May and higher than expected. Housing starts were reported at 1.04 million annually and lower than revised annualized rates at 1.17 million in April.

American jobless claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 for the week ended 13...

Read More

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 June 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold has recovered to 1200.00 benchmarks last week and exhibited its strength again for the investors. Dollar index has fallen below 95.00 and probably will trade sideways inside 93.00 – 95.00 ranges in coming weeks. Crude oil also has been staying strong at 60.00 regions amid moderate demand. However, report on growing shale oil output and Greece debt debacle keep investors on their toes as commodity markets inch up.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices still threads around 60.00 with no direction. Technically, we foresee the trend will move sideways from 57.00 – 62.00 ranges without clear trend ahead. Only breaking below 57.00 supports will initiate new selling pressure in market. Trade cautiously for tie being with proper risk control.

Gold

Gold prices crossed the 1190.00 levels and beat 1200.00 major benchmarks on last Thursday....

Read More