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Japan Refrains from More Stimulus Triggers Disappointment

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 03 May 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. home market lingers in low demand as orders for durable goods slide. Federal Reserve delivers no immediate necessity to rate hike despite the review might be prone to tightening in June. Bank of Japan refrains from adding new stimulus and causes Yen to rise unexpectedly against Dollar. Brexit issue triggers worries among regional leaders for prolonging the slowdown in global economy.

American new homes sales for March grew 511,000 and lower from revised 519,000 in previous month. The Conference Board of consumer confidence rose to 94.2 and down from 96.1 in March. Another report on core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, receded 0.2 percent in March and lesser than 1.3 percent plunge in previous month.

The U.S. pending homes sales grew 1.4 percent but down from revised 3.4...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 03 May 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices rallied up on Friday after submerging for 2 weeks. Yellow metal closed above 1290.00 for the weekend amid the slide in U.S. Dollar Index (USDX). Bank of Japan refrains from adding more stimulus and pushes Yen to 6-month high against Dollar causing the USD/JPY to drop. Crude prices have traded higher above USD45.00 per barrel while Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed 18,000 levels on Friday and might trigger new selling forces in coming week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been recovering above USD30.00 per barrel since early March. Despite global supply glut, prices are still climbing while reacting to receding Dollar Index and short-covering activity. Technically, we reckon the range will move from USD40.00 – USD50.00 regions for time being in mixed sentiment. This week may be prone to...

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European Central Bank Defends Policy

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 25 April 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. new housing sits on low demand while job market grows with lowest claims in 43-year record. European Central Bank holds policy unchanged but reaffirms the recovery plan to be correct despite some disagreement. British retail sales drop amid slow job markets.

The U.S building permits rose 1.09 million for March but lower than revised 1.18 million in previous month. Another separate data on housing starts also indicates 1.09 million after February recorded 1.19 million revised figure.

American existing homes sales grew 5.33 million in March and better than revised 5.03 million in February. Weekly jobless claims fell to 247,000 after seasonally adjusted in the week ended 16 April, lowest in last 43 years. Momentum in job markets is growing despite weak economy.

Another separate report on Philadelphia manufacturing...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 25 April 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices swung last week from USD1227.0 – 1270.0 per troy ounce as Dollar whipsaw. Pound escalated against Dollar after U.S. President visited London and spoke in disfavor for Brexit. Meanwhile, Japanese Yen weakened against Dollar before weekend after central bank expressed intention to start negative rates for lending to commercial banks. Crude prices still stay high despite Saudi Arabia and Russia reiterate they will continue to increase supply.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices met strong resistance at 44.00 levels and could not close above here for more than 3 days. Going forward, the fundamentals and technical aspects of market are pointing to a potential down move in prices with strong selling pressure emerging at 45.00 regions. Piercing beneath 40.00 immediate supports will initiate new selling forces in market and probably dive down...

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Bank of England Holds Policy Unchanged

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 18 April 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. faces challenge in lifting inflation. Japan is hit by earthquake and wanes investors’ confidence. China grows marginally in GDP data after supported by stimulus. Bank of England remains policy unchanged.

The U.S. retail sales dropped 0.3 percent in March after household cut back on purchases and spending compared to the data remained unchanged in February. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 0.2 percent after it was revised at par in previous month.

American producer prices slid 0.1 percent against a positive forecast after it dropped 0.2 percent in February. Consumer prices barely rose 0.1 percent in March, undermining slow growth in recovery. Core prices also up 0.1 percent after it gained 0.3 percent in February.

Weekly claims for American jobless benefits ended 9 April fell to 153,000 and...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 18 April 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Commodity prices traded wobbly last week after most fell from top prices after mid-week. Gold prices made 4-week high above 1260.0 levels but closed lower on Friday. Crude prices tracked above USD40.00 barrel while waiting for the oil producing countries to meet in Doha. Traders presume the meeting will not yield good outcome as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia will not agree to cutting supply. USDX may stay aloft at 94.00 – 96.00 regions in short lived bull trend for making corrections.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices made double top formation at 42.50 last week while capped under EMA200 resistance. This week, the bears may engulf the market and fall from 41.00 highs. Target at bottom is aimed at 38.00 regions in-lieu of global supply glut from Doha meeting. This could inversely cause...

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FED Yellen Defends that Economy is Not a Bubble

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 11 April 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. services index rises to 5-month record while Yellen comments recovering economy in not bubble. Japanese Yen gains against Dollar and obstruct exports while Aso warns of intervention. European Central Bank reassures of potential recovery out of negative rates and increases stimulus from April.

The U.S. trade deficits widened to USD47.1 billion in February after the previous month revised at USD45.9 billion deficits. Another report from the Institute of Supply Management says services index continues to rise to 54.5 in March, highest in past 5–month record.

American initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 for the week ended April 2. Crude inventories shrank 4.9 million barrels against positive forecast.

Federal Reserve chair Yellen defends that U.S. economy is in recovery progress and not...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 11 April 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

USDX traded lower last week and lent support to commodity prices including Gold and WTI crude. Weekly Crude inventory cut 4.9 million barrels in the week ended 2 April. Added comments by FED policymakers that no immediate rate hike might be seen in later this month helped push the Crude prices back to USD40.00 barrel. Traders remain cautious ahead of Doha meeting among Gulf countries in late April.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices pulled up last week following the news of increasing Crude inventories in U.S. government. This week, we reckon selling pressure will emerge at 40.0 regions and down trend is likely to rekindle. Technically, we forecast the trend will head down to in sideways while trapped within 35.0 – 40.0 ranges. Trade cautiously in case the prices break above 42.0...

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Japan’s Nikkei Prices affected by Tankan Report Fall

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 04 April 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. nonfarm payroll slides from previous month while Dollar stays weak. Consumer confidence and manufacturing index climb amid housing weakness. Japan’s large manufacturers cut down investment as growth slows down. U.K. records rising current account deficits as economic recovery delays.

The U.S. pending home sales rose 3.5 percent in February from previous month revised at minus 3.0 percent, probably due to fear of imminent rate hike for this year. Another date shows personal income rose 0.2 percent while personal spending stays flat at 0.1 percent.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence rises to 96.2 in March and higher than expectation. Weekly jobless claims rose to 276,000 in the week ended 26 March, highest in 4-week averages.

On Friday, American non-farm payroll rose 215,000 in March and above forecast,...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 04 April 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold and Silver still whipsaw last week while USD Index traded lower. Crude demand edges lower due to contracting supply glut and liquidation of profits. Stock prices have maintained supporting trend after American payroll suggested delayed rate hike. FED Yellen remains hawkish in her speech and abstains from committing credit tightening too fast into market.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices trades weaker despite the weekly inventories have been reduced to 2.3 million barrels from previous week of 9.4 million barrels. Technically, we foresee the prices will fall back to 34.00 as consolidation while resistances emerge strong at 40.00 areas. On fundamental studies, global supply glut still threatens many oil producers from suffering losses and might see weakening sideways in price trend for a while till end of Q2.

Gold

Gold prices trades sideways throughout...

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