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Bank of Japan Rules out Helicopter Money

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 25 July 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing data shows recovery while manufacturing slides. European Central Bank holds monetary policy unchanged after meeting. U.K. reveals better earnings and cut down in government’s borrowing, despite inflations slows in retail demand.

The U.S. building permits rose 1.15 million in June and matched forecast. Housing starts gained 1.19 million in same month after it revised at 1.14 million data in May.

Weekly claims among Americans for the week ended 16 July was at 253,000 and little changed from previous week. Another report on Philadelphia manufacturing contracts 2.9 in July unexpectedly versus 4.7 gains in June.

Bank of Japan’s Kuroda rules out the application on using helicopter money to stimulate recovery. Yen reverses stronger against Dollar while leading Asia stocks fall.

German ZEW sentiment that measures institutional investors’ confidence...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 25 July 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold and Crude prices inched down gradually last week despite strong demand slipped into market. Traders are preparing for the FOMC to be released in coming week while USDX climbed to above 96.00 levels. European Central Bank holds the policy unchanged. Japan triggers sell off in regional indexes after central bank chief Kuroda ruled out the helicopter money as new stimulus to revive the ailing economy.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices edged lower to 44.00 regions as Dollar climbed higher. This week we reckon the trend may trust lower with 46.00 resistance pressing downward. First support may emerge at 42.00 areas and keep the trend in small trading band. Beware of breaking beyond the aforementioned range while risk control is advised in case the prices move beyond 42.00 – 46.00 ranges.

Gold

Gold prices...

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Bank of England Holds Policy Unchanged

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 18 July 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. wholesale inventories contract on better demand while retail sales rise on monthly basis. China gains higher than forecast in Gross Domestic Product. U.K. announces Theresa May to be the new Prime Minister for replacing David Cameron.

The U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.1 percent in May as sign of demand lifted, better than revised 0.7 percent gains in April. American producer prices rose 0.5 percent in June, highest since last May.

Another separate data on weekly jobless claims unchanged at 254,000 in the week ended 9 July, but lower than median forecast. The U.S. consumer prices gained 0.2 percent in June. Core prices, excluding fresh food and energies, also rose 0.2 percent. Both met forecast standard.

American retail sales rose 0.6 percent and higher than 0.2 percent forecast, while...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 18 July 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold has begun its first week of downward correction and might continue for few more weeks. The military coup in Turkey on late market hours before U.S. market close (Saturday morning in Asia hours) send Gold prices in sharp recovery to 1336.00 regions. Crude prices traded in tight range around 45.00 pivot point and mixed sentiment. Traders are uncertain in direction trend and gradually have closed out their positions.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices is expected to trade in tight range from 44.00 – 48.00 regions this week. Technical patterns are prone to be bearish and might possibly break below 44.00 supports in near future. Taking a dip to test 40.00 levels is unsurprising or even might test 35.00 before the next FOMC meeting in end July.

Gold

Gold prices are moving into correction...

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Britain Votes for BREXIT and Shocks Market

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 27 June 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. home market data contradict as more interest lean towards resale properties. European markets sink to fear of bearish sentiment after U.K. voted for BREXIT on last Thursday. Market analysts reckon more risk will emerge in financial market instruments.

The U.S. existing homes sales increased 5.53 million in May and best since January this year, also hitting 9-year high. New home sales grew 551,000 in May versus 586,000 revised for April, tuning down the market sentiment after heated up by rising existing home sales.

American weekly jobless claims drop slightly after it was reported at 259,000 in the week ended 18 June, lowest in 8-week record. Another report on core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, contracted 0.3 percent in May after a 0.5 percent gains in prior month.

Japan’s...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 27 June 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold surged from flight to quality after European currencies declined last week. Yellow metal jumped about USD80 ranges on Friday but settled at mid-ranged prices 1314.00 for the weekend. Crude prices also sank after BREXIT swarmed the market into fear of selling sentiment. Moving forward, we foresee fund will move back into Dollar index for short-term as safe haven due to uncertainty in European markets.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices failed to close above 50.00 levels last week after 3 days of attempt. Hence, we foresee the market will dip this week and begin to bear trend. Range is expected to test 43.00 as our first target when downtrend materialized. Piercing above 50.00 again might reverse our forecast though chances are slim.

Gold

Gold prices rose to 1358.00 highs on Friday but receded to...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 20 June 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold short squeezed the market sellers by exceeded 1310.00 highs and fell before weekend. Yellow metal becomes an inverse hedge to BREXIT outcome as investors use it as alternative to Pound investment. Crude prices begin to soften as demand news wanes. Market investors are watching BREXIT vote for coming week and Dollar direction as gauge to prime commodity like Gold, Silver and Crude as safe haven.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed at weaker prices after the trend sank below USD50.00 /barrel benchmarks. This week, we foresee not much positive factors will drive the prices higher unless Dollar falls badly. Range is expected to be resisted at 50.00 benchmarks while open to decline further for correction. We predict the bears will reach down to 43.00 bottoms in near future as fund flight out...

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FED Holds Rate Unchanged While Investors Watch Britain

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 20 June 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. job market tightens while consumer inflation slows down. Japan holds policy unchanged. Greece wins new bailout approval worth EUR7.5 billion. U.K. sentiment submerges in anxiety as national referendum on BREXIT will be held this week.

The U.S. retail sales rose 0.5 percent in May and lower than 1.3 percent in April. Core retail, excluding automobiles, grew 0.4 percent at half of prior month's growth. Another separate report on producer prices gained 0.4 percent in May, highest record in past 12 months.

American industrial output dropped 0.4 percent after revised 0.6 percent growth in April. Weekly claims for jobless benefits rose to 4 –week high at 277,000 ended 11 June. Consumer prices grew slower at 0.2 percent in May versus 0.4 percent gains in April. Core prices rose 0.2...

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FED Yellen Hints Possibility of Two Rate Hikes

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 13 June 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. media still debates over recent lower-than-expected payroll that might suppress rate hike possibility. However, FED Yellen surprises market by hinting 2 times tightening may be needed. China reports on slowdown in consumer inflation amid rising trade surplus, propelling a market expectation for new stimulus by market observers. U.K. reports better manufacturing production with growth.

The U.S. weekly claims for jobless benefits show 264,000 in the week ended 4 June and not much different to previous data. Wholesale inventories climbed 0.6 percent in April and higher than revised 0.2 percent in March, indicating slower consumer demand.

Federal Reserve chair Yellen comments on 2 times rate hike may be possible before year-end but has not hinted on specific time frame. However, market analysts reckon the poor payroll in May has...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 13 June 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold recovered very rapidly last week due to fear of Brexit in U.K. market sentiment. Pound drops amid fear and gives a lending hand to Dollar recovery. In lieu of this correlation, we foresee Crude prices will begin to slide soon as a flight to quality pattern. WTI prices have failed to hold above USD50 per barrel for more than 3 days that could indicate bears coming soon.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have not been able to stand above USD50 per barrel. Technically, we predict the trend is going to slide very soon as fund flight to currency and Gold ahead of U.S. FOMC and Brexit referendum. This week, the trend is strongly resisted at 51.00 with possibility to head southward. Targets are set separately aimed at S1 – 46.00 and S2...

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