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U.K. Improves in Job Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 August 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. FOMC minutes favor to rate hike before year-end. Japan reports flat growth for Q2 seasons. Eurozone led by Germany shows maintains steady pace in recovery while U.K. improves in job growth and inflation.

The U.S. building permits grew 1.15 million in July and matched forecast. Consumer prices show flat growth while core prices, excluding food and energies, rose 0.1 percent after 0.2 percent gains in June. Housing starts grew 1.21 million in July and best record for this year.

The U.S. FOMC minutes reveals policymakers favor to rate hike before year-end. Crude inventories contracted by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended 13 August that put oil prices on firm demand. OPEC members are discussing on supply cut to lift prices.

American jobless claims lowered to 262,000 in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 August 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold and Silver traded in resilient demand but still capped under weekly resistances last week. Dollar Index stood firm above 94.00 levels and will continue to act as catalyst to oppose commodity prices. Russia urges the oil producers to cut supply while OPREC countries also voice concern to lift the Crude prices higher, following weekly cut down in U.S., inventories. Investors remain cautious after U.S. FOMC released minutes last week for favoring rate hike before year-end.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have seen a strong recovery throughout whole of last week. However, market topped off 49.00 regions amid profit-taking and may be stagnant in coming week. Investors are observing the fundamentals from OPEC countries and majority commodity trends to gauge oil direction. This week, range could trade lower inside 45.00 – 50.00 regions.

Gold

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China Boosts Trade Balance to Highest Record this Year

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 15 August 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy slows down in general demand though job markets stabilizes. China boosts in trade balance due to weakening Yuan. German report on first projection in Q2 shows growth. U.K. fluctuates in performance as investors still observe post effect of BREXIT till year-end.

The U.S. wholesale inventories climbed 0.3 percent in June and higher than previous month 0.2 percent gains, signalling slowdown in demand. Weekly claims for jobless benefits for the week ended 6 August was at 266,000, slight improvement from forecast.

The U.S. retail sales was flat in July while core retail prices slid 0.3 percent against positive forecast. Producer prices fell 0.4 percent in weak sentiment, worst in this year. Core prices, excluding food and energy, slid 0.3 percent.

China trade balance rose to CNY343 billion and...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 15 August 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold traded sideways but unable to advance higher with Silver. Crude prices recovered from 40.00 bottoms to 44.00 areas after reacted to news of global supply cut again. Dollar Index has been hovering in mixed sentiment but staved off selling pressure. Dow Jones benchmark traded higher last week to historical record at 18,638 levels and closed near to it before weekend. Investors stay cautious for coming week as volume reduces.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices are still entrapped from 40.00 – 45.00 major trend while hovering around EMA200 line. This week, we predict the trend will simmer down and go back to 40.00 bottoms with metal commodity due to slight rising Dollar. However, it is possible to see the market tops off 46.00 areas before fizzling out. Trade with caution if short traders...

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Bank of England Cuts Rates in 7 Years

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 08 August 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. non-farm payroll increases better than forecast and lure rate hike in coming months. Japan increases new fiscal stimulus but the new program undermines from market expectation. Bank of England cuts rates after 7 years and raises bond purchase program, in a bid to steer away from BREXIT effects.

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management reports manufacturing index at 52.6 in July and lower from 53.2 in June. Construction spending dropped 0.6 percent in June and remained sluggish.

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management reports services index at 55.5 in July compared to 56.5 in previous month. Crude inventories for the week ended 30 July increased to 1.4 million barrels and higher than forecast, putting lid on oil prices. Personal spending stagnated at 0.4 percent growth in June.

Another...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 08 August 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold fizzled out after U.S. non-farm payroll showed 225,000 jobs created and above forecast. Crude prices dived to 40.00 bottoms and short-covered a little behind weekend. Stock indexes lifted higher again after Bank of Japan and Bank of England introduced loosening control on monetary policy. Japan announced JPY13.5 trillion of new stimulus below expectation of market investors while U.K. cut 0.25 percent interest rates that pushed FTSE 100 index higher.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices reached below 40.00 benchmarks and bounced little bit before last weekend. Moving forward, we forecast the trend will trade sideways from 39.00 – 44.00 areas this week. Increasing crude inventories may continue to weigh down on oil prices especially with metals also falling alongside. Observe the U.S. Dollar index as next leading factor to inversely move the commodity...

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Bank of Japan Disappoints Market with New Stimulus

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 01 August 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) holds interest rates unchanged that increases probability on next tightening before September. Bank of Japan (BOJ) also remains unchanged in policy in Yen rates though stresses on buying more equity to support recovery. Dollar begins new weakening trend after the policy announced by the 2 central banks.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence reports the index rattles high at 97.3 in July compared to revised 97.4 in June. New home sales grew 592,000 in June and better than forecast. Weekly jobless claims rose to 266,000 in the week ended 23 July and highest in past 4 weeks.

The U.S. orders for core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, slid 0.5 percent in June after continual slide from minus 0.4 percent in May. Pending home sales...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 01 August 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices exhibited strong demand last week while Crude fell on higher inventories. Dollar weakened after FOMC and BOJ conference on disappointment of no changes by the 2 central banks. This week, focus will be staked on American nonfarm payrolls for deciding the stock market and Dollar trends. Commodities will probably stay in mixed sentiment until mid-August.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices reached our predicted target at 42.00 last week. The market is likely to move into sideways consolidation this week from 40.00 – 44.00 ranges. Technically, the market has not completed the correction phase yet and might continue lower prices in August. Sinking beneath 40.00 levels will dive to 36.00 as our final target!

Gold

Gold prices will likely thread from 1330.00 to 1360.00 ranges in coming week. Bullish demand has slipped into...

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Bank of Japan Rules out Helicopter Money

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 25 July 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing data shows recovery while manufacturing slides. European Central Bank holds monetary policy unchanged after meeting. U.K. reveals better earnings and cut down in government’s borrowing, despite inflations slows in retail demand.

The U.S. building permits rose 1.15 million in June and matched forecast. Housing starts gained 1.19 million in same month after it revised at 1.14 million data in May.

Weekly claims among Americans for the week ended 16 July was at 253,000 and little changed from previous week. Another report on Philadelphia manufacturing contracts 2.9 in July unexpectedly versus 4.7 gains in June.

Bank of Japan’s Kuroda rules out the application on using helicopter money to stimulate recovery. Yen reverses stronger against Dollar while leading Asia stocks fall.

German ZEW sentiment that measures institutional investors’ confidence...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 25 July 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold and Crude prices inched down gradually last week despite strong demand slipped into market. Traders are preparing for the FOMC to be released in coming week while USDX climbed to above 96.00 levels. European Central Bank holds the policy unchanged. Japan triggers sell off in regional indexes after central bank chief Kuroda ruled out the helicopter money as new stimulus to revive the ailing economy.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices edged lower to 44.00 regions as Dollar climbed higher. This week we reckon the trend may trust lower with 46.00 resistance pressing downward. First support may emerge at 42.00 areas and keep the trend in small trading band. Beware of breaking beyond the aforementioned range while risk control is advised in case the prices move beyond 42.00 – 46.00 ranges.

Gold

Gold prices...

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