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Bank of England May Hike Rates Faster than Expected

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 12 February 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy continues to signal inflation growth while Dow markets fall. China shows a fall in trade surplus while other economic indicators stagnate. Bank of England hints rate hike may come faster than expected.

The U.S. services index rose 59.9 in January and highest in past months. Jobless claims reduced to 220,000 in the week ended 3 February. Dow Jones performs the worst week in last 2 years after the market moved into correction from 26,616, top.

China's Caixin services index grew 54.7 in January, matched the best record for more than 5-1/2 year. Another report on trade surplus grew USD20.3 billion in January and below forecast, after USD54.7 billion gains in previous month.

China's consumer prices rose 1.5 percent in January on year basis while...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 12 Feb 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices come down to USD59 /barrel as predicted last week. Dollar recovery has weighed on Crude prices but we expect the bargain-hunting will emerge at USD58 – USD59 /barrel region. Some short-covering may occur this week and market prices will probably trade from USD58 to USD62 /barrel. However, beware of plunge beneath USD58 /barrel that could land at USD55 /barrel if demand loosens.

Gold

Gold prices have shown correction on week-chart and probably will trade in sideways to lower trend in coming weeks. Technically, we expect the market to be supported at USD1310 /oz as mentioned in previous report. Temporary recovery might reach USD1335 /oz before the next bear trend. Range is expected to be rather tight this week as traders adjust their positions in the range from USD1310...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 5 Feb 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have shown resilience at USD66 /barrel as buying interests take a breather. As we foresee the Dollar Index begins to recover, WTI Crude might trade in lower band of sideways trend from USD63 – USD66 /barrel. However, strong buying interest will emerge below USD64 /barrel as traders are waiting to bargain hunt for new entry.

Gold

Gold prices topped off recent USD1365 /oz and may begin to correct sideways this week. As predicted previously, the support will stay firm and emerge at USD1325 /oz which probably follow by some mixed trading sentiments. Overall view remains unchanged unless the movement stretches beyond the range of USD1325 – USD1365 /oz. We reckon more sellers will be waiting to take profits once the trend rises above USD1340 /oz level.

Silver

Silver...

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Dow Jones Benchmark Falls More Than 600 Points

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 5 February 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. indicators point to inflation pressure before new Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell comes on board o this week. Traders fear of rate hike that may come too soon that trigger Dow Jones benchmark falls more than 600 points before weekend. Chinese Yuan advances as Dollar weakens for many weeks.

American consumer spending rose 0.4 percent in December after the previous month was revised to 0.8 percent gains. The Conference Board of consumer confidence rose 125.4 in January and higher than previous month.

The U.S. pending home sales rose 0.5 percent in December and matched forecast. Another report on ISM manufacturing index rose 59.1 in January. Unemployment claims lowered to 230,000 for the week ended 27 January and below forecast.

Monthly U.S. non-farm payroll rose...

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UK Grows in GDP in Q4 Seasons

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 January 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. lowers in home market but increases in order for durable goods. Japan remains unchanged in monetary policy. U.K. net borrowings in public sector reduces while GDP grows.

The U.S. existing home sales grew 5.57 million in December and lower than revised 5.78 million in previous month. New home sales increased by 625,000 and lower than November 689,000. Weekly claims for jobless benefits rose to 233,000 in the week ended 20 January against revised 216,000 in prior week.

The U.S. order for durable goods grew 2.9 percent in January and best record in past 6 months. Excluding transport equipment and auto sales, core durable goods expanded 0.6 percent. Another report on GDP rose 2.6 percent in Q4 seasons and below forecast.

President Trump imposes 30...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 Jan 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices climbed above USD65 /barrel last week after the OPEC leaders emphasized on supply cut through year-end in conjunction with Dollar fall. Market closed at 5-year high record at USD66 /barrel region on Friday. This week, the trend will remain tricky as traders watch Dollar direction as clue to gauge commodity prices. The market may ascend higher to USD69 /barrel before profit-taking occurs, or else might fall back to USD62 /barrel if Dollar recovers.

Gold

Gold prices spiked above USD1360 /oz at 4-month high and declined to at USD1349 /oz for weekend close. We foresee the trend could be strongly resisted at USD1360 /oz this week and begin to make correction. We expect the range to be prone southward with support rising at USD1325 /oz level. Dollar will remain...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 Jan 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading mainly in small range from USD63 – USD64 /barrel amid resilient sentiment. Range has failed to pierce above USD65 /barrel while Dollar Index might have floored at 90.00 benchmark. This week, we predict the support will emerge at USD61 /barrel with topside resistance remaining unbreakable at USD65 /barrel. Range movement is expected with mixed sentiment.

Gold

Gold prices have been seen resisted at USD1345 /oz last week as market slowed down in advancement. This week, we forecast the trend will move into a small correction as support emerges at USD1310 /oz level. Range is expected to be contained from USD1310 – USD1350 /oz without high expectation of breaking beyond this region.

Silver

Silver prices met resistance at USD17.40 /oz as we predicted. The trend is gradually...

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American Government May Face Partial Shutdown

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 January 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. jobless claims fall to 45-year low. American Government may face partial shutdown in operation if an impasse is not approved in Senate Congress for a new funding bill. China stays in good growth rate on national economy. Britain retail price index on overall consumers’ sentiment rises to 6-year high.

The U.S. jobless claims dropped to 220,000 in the week ended 13 January, at 45-year low record. Building permits stayed strong in January at 1.30 million while housing starts fell to 1.19 million and lower than December.

The U.S. Government faces risk of partial shutdown if the lawmakers fail to pass a bill for funding the civil services through 16 February. House has approved a funding bill but has not passed through the Senate, before representing onto President’s...

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Euro Surges in-lieu of Rate Hike Expectation

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 8 January 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. inflation slows down over year-end as Dollar weakens. China stays resilient in growth amid soaring trade surplus. Eurozone fears of rate hike after September as currency climbs.

The U.S. import prices posted smallest gain in past 5 months by 0.1 percent in December. American producer prices slid 0.1 percent in December and far below positive forecast. Core prices, excluding food and energy, also declined 0.1 percent and entered into negative region after past 4 months of positive growth.

American weekly claims for jobless benefits rose to 15-week high record at 261,000 for the week ended 9 January. Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in December while core prices grew 0.3 percent at 11-month high. Another report on retail prices rose 0.4 percent. Core retail prices, excluding automobiles,...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 15 Jan 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices surged last week in strong sentiment. Market trend has shown strong buying interest at USD62 /barrel and will be ambushed with bargain-hunting in case of drawdown. This week, topside resistance still acts unto USD66 /barrel for short-term profit-taking. On hind side, we reckon the buying spree might take the prices to USD70 /barrel before end of Q1 seasons if Dollar stays at weak sentiment.

Gold

Gold prices have been rising and well seated on USD1310 /oz support. This week, we would shift our support to USD1320 /oz and expect the trend to ascend further. Target is expected to reach USD1360 /oz level if market encounters short-squeeze. Stay observant on Dollar weakening that will push previous metal higher.

Silver

Silver prices has moved up as we predicted and temporary...

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