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FED Yellen Holds Policy Unchanged

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 26 September 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve announces no rate adjustment but Yellen comments there could be a rate hike before year-end. Stocks climb but investors are waiting for the debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump this week to check on potential trend of stock indexes. Japan abandons the monetary base target and adopts new policy framework on controlling yield curve.

The U.S. building permits rose 1.14 million in August and same figure as revised in previous month, pointing to weakness of housing demand. Weekly jobless claims dropped to 252,000 in the week ended 17 September and better than 260,000 in previous week. Another report on existing home sales rose 5.33 million in August, below forecast and lowest in past 6 months.

In the FOMC meeting, policymakers hold interest rates unchanged. FED...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 26 September 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold moved into recovery last week after Federal Reserve confirmed no rate hike after the meeting. Silver has definitely advanced faster than yellow metal in excitement of sliding Gold/Silver ratio. Crude prices still lingers in tight range below 46.50 resistances amid heavy selling pressure. Saudi Arabia says the government is prepared to cut oil supply if Iran also agrees to reduce its output. Investors will observe the meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC discussion this week in-lieu of new market trend.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded in tight range without clear direction last week. This week, we expect the trend may be prone to downward pressure as Iran might be unwilling to compromise on cutting supply. Range could drive from 46.00 tops and re-visit the 42.00 supports towards weekend. However, observe the fundamental...

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European Central Bank Cuts Growth in 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 12 September 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. jobless claim reduces to 7-weeks' best record. Japan's Kuroda says will adopt more easing options while European central Bank holds tight on halting the target stimulus in next March. Stocks decline is seen amid waning confidence among investors.

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management says its service index recorded at 51.4 in August and worst since April 2014, after fell from 55.5 in July. Another data jobless claims for the week ended 3 September reduced to 259,000 and best in past 7-weeks' record.

China's trade balance for August charted at CNY346 billion and almost unchanged from previous month, but fell short from forecast. The consumer prices gained 1.3 percent in August on year basis and down from previous month 1.8 percent. Another report on producer prices has...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 12 September 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Bank of Japan's Kuroda reveals no plan to boost economy besides assuring deeper rate cut and more easing options if needed. European Central Bank disappoints the market by refraining to mention the continuity of monthly stimulus after it is supposed to end next March. North Korea tested nuclear before the weekend and all combined negative news bludgeoned the global stock indexes. Precious metals will probably rise in coming week amid fear of holding equity.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices tried to recover above 47.00 last week but declined on Friday. Market pattern has revealed a new bearish sign that could pull down global stock indexes this week. Technically, we expect the trend to consolidate from 43.00 – 47.00 in early this week but prone to plunge if the aforementioned support is violated....

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U.S. Non-Farm Payroll behind Forecast

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 05 September 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy reveals mixed sentiment with payroll figure decline. China poises for manufacturing recovery in government and private reports. Japan is prone to falter in growth as retail demand and manufacturing slow. U.K. rattles in consumer confidence but steadies in manufacturing.

The U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3 percent in July after gaining revised 0.5 percent in June. The Conference Board of consumer confidence gained 101.0 in August after revised 96.7 growth in previous month.

American pending home sales rose 1.3 percent in July and best record in 3 months. Weekly crude inventory increased 2.3 million barrels and put pressure on oil prices. Unemployment claims for the week ended 27 Aug at 263,000 and met the averaging forecast.

The Institute for Supply Management reports July manufacturing index dropped to 49.4,...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 05 September 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

WTI Crude prices has begun to wane in prices while threatened by global supply glut. Gold and Silver prices reversed on Friday after U.S. non-farm payroll at 151,000 in August erased speculation of imminent rate hike by FED policymakers. The U.S. Index topped off 96.00 areas and subject to either way in coming week. However, weakening Dollar may lift the precious metals in coming week while putting lid on Crude prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have resumed bearish sentiment in market as buying wanes. This week, we reckon resistance will emerge at 45.50 areas but down trend is more likely to occur. Support lies at 42.00 levels in case of drawdown. Failing to hold the selling pressure might re-test 40.00 benchmarks and affect global stock indexes.

Gold

Gold prices held well above 1302.00...

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U.K. Property Weakens after BREXIT

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 August 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) Yellen expresses optimism in rate hike before year-end during Jackson Hole symposium. Japan may implement deeper into negative rates if economy falls further. U.K. property begins in weakness after BEXIT takes effect.

The U.S. new home sales rose 654,000 in July and so far is best number for this year, after revised at 582,000 gains in June. Existing home sales grew 5.39 million in July and lower than 5.57 million.

The U.S. jobless claims for the week ended 20 August was at 261,000 and matched forecast. Core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, advanced 1.5 percent in July and best since January, after contracted 0.4 percent.

A report on preliminary estimate for American GDP in Q2 grew 1.1 percent and matched forecast. In Jackson Hole meeting...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 August 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

WTI Crude prices have been trading in liquidation after it failed to cross above USD50/ barrel recently. Gold and Silver prices also drew down last week in waning demand as investors stay sideways cautiously. FED Yellen held their annual meeting at Jackson Hole on final weekend of August and voiced favor of rate hike in-lieu of jobs recovery and higher inflation. Stocks slid with commodity before weekend closed.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices are still threatened by global supply glut despite Russia and Saudi governments have voiced recently of supporting the price recovery. This week, we reckon the range will unwind lower with range expecting from 43.00 – 48.00 regions. Watch the major stock indexes that may slide with Crude prices in weaker demand.

Gold

Gold prices held around 1320.00 regions on Friday after...

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U.K. Improves in Job Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 August 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. FOMC minutes favor to rate hike before year-end. Japan reports flat growth for Q2 seasons. Eurozone led by Germany shows maintains steady pace in recovery while U.K. improves in job growth and inflation.

The U.S. building permits grew 1.15 million in July and matched forecast. Consumer prices show flat growth while core prices, excluding food and energies, rose 0.1 percent after 0.2 percent gains in June. Housing starts grew 1.21 million in July and best record for this year.

The U.S. FOMC minutes reveals policymakers favor to rate hike before year-end. Crude inventories contracted by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended 13 August that put oil prices on firm demand. OPEC members are discussing on supply cut to lift prices.

American jobless claims lowered to 262,000 in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 August 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold and Silver traded in resilient demand but still capped under weekly resistances last week. Dollar Index stood firm above 94.00 levels and will continue to act as catalyst to oppose commodity prices. Russia urges the oil producers to cut supply while OPREC countries also voice concern to lift the Crude prices higher, following weekly cut down in U.S., inventories. Investors remain cautious after U.S. FOMC released minutes last week for favoring rate hike before year-end.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have seen a strong recovery throughout whole of last week. However, market topped off 49.00 regions amid profit-taking and may be stagnant in coming week. Investors are observing the fundamentals from OPEC countries and majority commodity trends to gauge oil direction. This week, range could trade lower inside 45.00 – 50.00 regions.

Gold

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