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Global Markets Analysis – 28 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong

28.11.2016 周一 油脂类商品反弹上行行情延续中;前期低位接盘多单继续持有

美盘豆油1月合约,11月23日“一阳指”飙涨,已经指明短线后市走势方向。 在24日感恩节休盘一天后,上周五25日-于23日的长阳K线之右上角短暂小阴K线整理,今天周一早盘继续红盘阳K线表现,“两阳夹一阴”冲天炮反弹行情延续中,我们继续保持短多观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,上周四24日上影线剧烈波动之后,虽然盘中存在部分多头逢高减仓兑现获利筹码动作出现,但仍不改短线反弹上扬走势,随着上周五与本周一延续的阳K线表现-我们继续多单持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,上周四盘中期价高开低走中阴K线表现,盘中存在冲高回落迹象,虽然盘中存在一定恐慌情绪,但不会影响后期的震荡上行走势,我们仅仅需要的是坚强的心态(强大的心态源自强大的技术分析),对马盘棕榈我们继续保持短多思维,后市依旧看高一线。

小结:美元指数高位震荡之后出现冲高回落迹象,全球大宗商品上行压力减轻。 对油脂类商品来说-依托多头排列的均线系统,反弹上行行情延续中,虽然盘中出现期价反复的剧烈波动,但不会影响到我们的操作心态,建议散户朋友依旧短多观点对待。观点认为具体操作上:前期低位接盘多单继续乐观持有,后市仍有新高出现。

[SUMMARY]
• Dollar index shows signs of downtrend correction, easing upward pressure of global edible oils.
• The high volatility of edible oils would not affect our outlook: short-term long position.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain long positions there were initiated at low prices, as we anticipate a new high.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed...

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Currency Market Observations - 28 November 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing market rises in resale property while orders for durable goods improve. FED policymakers place high bet on increasing interest rate before year-end. Japan rattles into continual slow inflation but trade surplus grow due to weakening Yen.

The U.S. existing home sales rose 5.6 million in October and consecutive rise in second month. New homes sales in October was lower at 563,000 compared to 574,000 in prior month. Another report on orders for durable goods rose 4.8 percent in October from a month earlier, the fastest pace in a year.

American weekly claims for jobless benefits rose to 251,000 for the week ended 19 November and higher than 233,000 in previous week. The FOMC minutes reveals prone decision in raising rate in December. Policymakers bet highly on rate...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 28 November 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The Dollar Index (USDX) roe to fresh 14-year high above 102.00 last week. Gold and Silver tumbled out of expectation and also due to the delay of commencement in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Market Connect. Chinese authority has reaffirmed the commencement will be pushed backward to 5 December. Crude prices have been holding above USD48.00 per barrel throughout the week until it fell to USD46.00 levels on Friday. Investors are observing the OPEC meeting outcome on coming Wednesday.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices are mainly trading within the range of 42.00 – 49.00 regions. This week, we foresee the sentiment may be weak prior to OPEC meeting on Wednesday. Reversal from bottom areas is expected after mid-week and move back to 50.00 top areas towards the weekend. Observe the extension beyond aforementioned price range for...

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A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 21 November 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. jobs claims contract to 43-year low with rising manufacturing. FED Yellen hints on possible timing for rate increment. Europe may fall into resurging crisis on reform constitution to be voted in Italy in December. Britain shows inflationary data on consumer prices and retail sales.

The U.S. retail sales gained 0.8 percent in October. Core retail sales, excluding transport equipment, also rose 0.8 percent and highest in past 6-month record. Another separate report on industrial production stayed unchanged in October versus minus 0.2 percent revised in previous month.

Producer prices also unchanged but fell below forecast. Core prices, excluding food and energy, fell 0.2 percent and negative for first time in past 3 months. The U.S. jobless claims was at 235,000 for the week ended 12 November, lowest...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 November 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The Dollar Index (USDX) closed above 101.00 on Friday at 11-year high record. Gold and Silver prices declined last week in reaction to rising greenback. Crude prices are still wavering sideways while waiting for end November in-lieu of OPEC meeting. Traders are observing the Chinese stock markets in Shenzhen and Hong Kong to react on coming Monday when they become mutually connected for cross-border trades.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices moved back to above 46.00 levels on Friday closing. Resistance is expected to emerge here around 46.00 and likely might fall again to 42.00 levels. In short, we reckon sideways trend will prevail in aforementioned range until we hear from OPEC meeting’s decision after 30 November.

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Trump Wins U.S. Presidential Seat

A guest post written by DAR Wong

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Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Presidential Election is finally over with Trump ascending to become the first man in America. On Election Day, Dow Jones market recovered from initial 1000 points decline and closed at near to historical new high at 18,847 levels. China sees gains in inflation reports through consumer and producer prices.

Donald Trump wins the election as 45th U.S. President after swooping 279 winnings out of 507 contesting seats. Dow Jones markets went through a euphoria after declined 1000 points on the Election Day but recovered all losses after the results confirmed to be Trump as winner.

Weekly Crude oil inventories in U.S. storage rose 2.4 million and weighed down on energy prices. Jobless claims for the week ended 5 November at 254,000 and lowest record over past 4 weeks.

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 November 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The Dollar Index (USDX) reversed fiercely from 96.00 to 99.00 levels after the U.S. Election, thus punting down all precious metals and Bond prices. Market analysts interpret the American economy might surge into quick inflation as Trump’s policy is prone to massive building of country’s infrastructure. Gold sank to 5-month low while Silver settled at 4-week low before the weekend close.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded from 43.00 – 46.00 ranges last week as we predicted. However, market settled near to aforementioned low for weekend. This week, we suggest the observation of breaking the 43.00 supports in case the trend dips down to 40.00 regions. Supply glut from OPEC countries still play as an important clue to decide the trend of Crude prices.

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Fundamental Outlook

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The U.S. personal spending for September rose 0.5 percent and highest in 8 months. The data from Institute of Supply Management reports its manufacturing index in October grew to 51.9 and matched forecast. Above 50.0 indicates expansion. Another report on this institute shows services index expanded at 54.8 in October and lower than previous month 57.1 reading.

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A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

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Crude Oil

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A guest post written by DAR Wong

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Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing demand grows moderately while quarterly GDP gains at highest record in 2 years. Eurozone maintains steady pace and U.K. observes BREXIT policy in coming 2017. British grows above forecast in recent quarterly report.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence drops to 98.6 from revised 103.5 in September. New home sales grew 593,000 in September after the previous month was revised down to 575,000. On separate report, pending home sales was up 1.5 percent in September and above forecast.

American weekly claims on jobless benefits marks at 258,000 in the week ended 22 October and lower than 261,000 revised in prior week. Core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, rose 0.2 percent in September versus minus 0.2 percent revised in August.

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