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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 31 August 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold declined after hitting a monthly high record at 1170.0 levels last week. USDX swung down to 92.50 but quickly recovered after last Monday's slide and lured investors to return to greenback safe haven. Crude prices resurged back to past 2 weeks' high and began short-covering while it closed at 45.00 regions on Friday.

Crude Oil

WTI Crudes shot up from 6 years' low record 37.75 and climbed to 45.00 closing before weekend. This week, we reckon the trend has met temporary resistance at 45.00 levels and will begin to swing sideways from 40.00 – 45.00 regions. However, beware of large buying interest moving into market that may push the trend up to test 50.00 levels as our next higher resistances.

Gold

Gold prices hit 1114.0 low regions last week after falling from 1170.0...

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Global Stock Indexes Whipsaw in Volatility

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 31 August 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy shows recovery in housing market while consumer confidence jumps in optimism. Orders for core durable goods improved on monthly basis and jobless claims reduce. Japan stagnates in recovery though unemployment declines. U.K. advances in mortgage approvals for housing loans while business investment climbs.

The U.S. new home sales performed better in July at 507,000 compared to 481,000 revised in June. The Conference Board's consumer confidence surprised market by jumping to 101.5, best record since August 2007, after it showed 91.0 in July.

American orders for durable goods, made to last for more than 3 years, rose 2.0 percent in July after it gained at revised 4.1 percent in previous month. Orders for core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, climb 0.6 percent and doubled the expectation.

Weekly jobless...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 24 August 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices ran up higher last week following the Chinese Yuan devaluation. Fund flight out of global equities and rush into yellow metal and sovereign Bonds. Crude prices remain stagnate at low demands as weekly Crude inventories increased 2.6 million barrels in the week ended 15 August. USDX has traded lower to 94.80 before weekend as fear of U.S. rate hike eases.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices declined to 6-1/2 year low and closed at 40.30 for the weekend. Market analysts fear the progressive low prices in energies at this low demand will trigger global recession in coming months. Technically, we do not see any support until it goes down to 34.00 in confluent with the low created in February 2009. In case of upward reversal, the trend will likely to reach up...

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Dow Jones Tumbled in Fear-Stricken Sentiment

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 24 August 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. inflation slacks while rate hike in September remains argumentative. Dow market tumbles as Asia equity markets fall. Japan slows in quarterly growth. Europe stagnates though Germany stays productive in manufacturing. U.K. inflation reveals beginning of growth amid consumer demand.

The U.S. building permits grew 1.12 million in July and lesser than previous month 1.34 million, showing first decline in 4 months. Another separate report on housing starts gained 1.21 million compared to 1.20 million in June.

Monthly consumer prices of Americans rose 0.1 percent in July and below median forecast. Core prices also rose at 0.1 percent after June gained 0.2 percent. Inconsistent growth of consumer inflation has cast doubts on rate hike for coming September.

American existing homes sales climbed 559,000 in July and higher than revised...

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Global Markets Analysis – 17 August 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong

17.08.2015 周一 美盘大豆与豆油受上周利空消息影响严重;吸收消化过程进行中

在上周三时分,美国农业部的8月份供需报告对美盘油脂商品利空影响依然严重。本周一美盘豆油与大豆依旧在吸收消化该利空因素,短线走势上延续上周三长阴暴跌之后的下挫惯性,期价继续疲软下行,每次酝酿的短线反弹走势总是被市场空头主力给击破,中长期角度下的大区间横盘震荡整理行情右侧延伸中。短线反弹屡屡失败,呈现出上有压力而下有支撑的两难境界,我们仍暂以下行筑底的的低位震荡疲软看待美盘豆油12月合约。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天周一早盘低开高走,小阳K线波动。上周初的短线反弹在周末时分被打乱节奏后,内盘油脂呈抵抗性跟随美盘走弱,虽然期价未出现明显下跌,但反弹动能依然消失,等待美盘下挫结束之后新的指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,前期表现一直疲软,盘中就未曾出现过短线的盘中反弹强势。市场对马来西亚棕榈油季节性产量增长的担忧一直困扰马盘,全球商品价格走软以及马来西亚棕榈油库存的增加对马盘毛棕榈油形成压力。但马来西亚令吉特汇率的持续下跌,令吉兑美元的汇率已经达到17年来的新低,这将提振棕榈路有的市场竞争力,稍微抵消期价的下挫动能。

小结:美盘油脂商品受上周利空消息影响严重,美盘大豆与豆油的短暂下挫仍延续中。全球油脂商品期价反弹的要求变得压力巨大。个人短线观点上仍以三地油脂商品分别对待思路不变。美盘下挫;内盘抵抗;马盘小跌。个人观点认为中长线多单继续持有。短线仓单暂停操作,继续关注美盘豆油下挫的空间情况。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 17 August 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices recovered after China announced the devaluation of Renminbi currency. Generally, all commodities traded in China and settled in Renminbi rose in prices after the news. Fund moved back to Treasuries assets as the weakening Chinese currency triggered some sell off in regional equity markets. Crude prices tumbled to March's low at 42.00 levels and has risen worries of imminent recession. Crude stockpiles rose in last week's report and put a lid on energy prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices are worrisome as it broke March's low at 42.06 levels and challenged the 6-1/2 year low record. Technically, the trend should rebound for short covering at about 50.00 regions for creating a market equilibrium in coming weeks. However, it is crucial to observe the fundamental factors of increasing stockpiles for driving prices...

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China Devalues Yuan Currency to Stay Competitive

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 17 August 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy stays in flat pace while job market stagnates. China surprises market investors by devaluing Yuan and slows down regional equity demand. Greece passes the third bailout test and will sign the pact of new loan package with European lenders. U.K. keeps the pace of economic recovery.

The U.S. wholesale inventories were up 0.9 percent in June after much higher than forecast, indicating slowdown in consumer demand. Retail sales was up solidly in June by 0.6 percent compared to par growth in prior month. The core data, excluding automobile sales, rose 0.4 percent and in line with median forecast.

Weekly jobless claims filed by Americans increased 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 274,000 for the week ended 8 August. Industrial output including manufacturing, mines and utility climbed 0.6 percent...

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American Non-Farm Payroll Declines Unexpectedly

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 10 August 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. services advances due to rising Dollar while trade gap widens, payrolls slow down amid unchanged unemployment record. Japan refrains from adding new measures but targets at inflation growth. Bank of England maintains policy unchanged with majority policymakers favor no rate hike.

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing PMI declined slightly to 52.7 in July after it rose to 53.5 in prior month. Factory orders in June grew 1.8 percent from minus 1.1 percent in previous month, probably triggered by stronger Dollar for domestic purchase.

Another report from the Institute for Supply Management on its services sector index rose to 60.3 in July, making its highest reading since August 2005. The trade gap increased 7.1 percent to USD43.8 billion in June, due to strong Dollar and rising...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 10 August 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Commodities thread at low edge amid stronger Dollar last week. Crude prices return to lowest prices since March with weakening demand. Fundamentally, sliding commodities have pushed fund into U.S. credit risk instruments that drive down the long term interest rates in U.S. bonds. American non-farm payroll was reported at 215,000 in July and below forecast. Yellow metals were supported instead of expected slide.

Crude Oil

Gold edged higher in small range last week and closed at 1094.00 on Friday. Technically, the trend has broken out of the flag formation on the upside. This week, we reckon the bulls may gather strength and climb to 1120.00 as our targets. However, breaking below 1080.00 supports is a danger sign in case of unexpected circumstances and should be controlled with risk management.

Gold

WTI Crude prices has...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 3 August 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) traded below 98.00 last week and allowed general commodities to take a breather from falling. Recent strength in greenback have suppressed commodity prices to revisit the low prices created in Q1 of this year as demand slide. Royal Dutch Shell announces the plan to lay off 6500 jobs as Crude prices ebb lower.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices reversed down on Friday to 46.80 regions where it started to climb since Monday. This level also serves as crucial support to the market lest breaking beneath will drive down to 42.00 low again created 18 March. This week, continue to observe the Dollar Index in case of a drawdown will lift the Crude prices to 50.00 for short-covering. Range trading is still expected in near-future as market situation is...

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