Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2162 7861

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 15 September 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold persisted in declining last week after USDX surged higher to 84.50 regions before weekend. Yellow metal closed at 1230.00 on Friday while WTI Crude prices also settled at 92.00 levels after traders unwound the long positions from geo-political premiums. Weekly Crude inventory decreased 1 million barrels in-line with forecast and expectation of US interest rate hike over year-end continues to push Dollar higher.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded sideways while supported at 90.50 bottoms last week. The market is heading for weakening sentiment as inflation remains meager in the US and China economy. This week, we reckon the trend might test 90.00 benchmarks if Dollar strength stays resilient. Otherwise, trading in slightly strong buying interest will be capped under 94.50 resistances in case of short-covering.

Gold

Gold prices broke below the 1240.00 supports last...

Read More

European Central Bank Urges for Economic Reform

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 8 September 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US budget deficit shrinks as core retail sales steadies. Japanese Yen weakens due to strengthening Dollar despite Bank of Japan have been refraining from injecting more stimulus. German remains resilient in trade surplus while European Central Bank urges for economic reform.

American jobless claims increased to 315,000 for the week ended 6 September and above median forecast. Another report on budget deficit narrowed 22 percent in first 11 months of fiscal year as economy recovers. Shortfall shows USD589.2 billion from October through August compared with USD755.3 billion gaps in the same period a year earlier.

The US core retail sales excluding auto sales rose 0.3 percent in August, same as revised data in previous month. Dollar is still strengthening against European currencies in-lieu of fear in interest rate increment as stimulus will...

Read More

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 8 September 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The US monthly payroll grew at smallest pace by 142,000 in August, hinting the interest rates might not be raised so soon yet. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi declares more stimuli will be implemented with EUR700 billion financial aid since Euro area inflation is way below 2.0 percent mark amid slowdown. In Japan, policymakers have refrained from putting up more stimulus package thought Finance Minister Aso comments they could be on the way of preparation. Last week, Gold prices declined while Crude prices also traded sideways in weak demand.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices trade sideways while settled almost at inter-week's low at 93.29. Technically, we reckon the trend pattern is narrowing into a flag formation with strong support resting at 92.50 levels. The market might be resilient at 95.00 for the time being...

Read More

European Central Bank Signals More stimulus to Salvage Recession

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 8 September 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US payrolls grow at slowest pace while manufacturing advances unexpectedly. Japan refrains from implementing stimulus despite Taro Aso comments it is in the pipeline. European Central Bank signals more stimulus to reverser the recession while U.K. maintains unchanged in its asset-purchase program.

The US Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index unexpectedly climbed to 59 from July's 57.1, making highest record since March 2011. Another report on factory orders rose 10.5 percent in July against revised 1.5 percent in prior month, but still below median forecast.

The second monthly report by Institute for Supply Management on services index rose to 59.6 in August, the highest since August 2005, from previous month 58.7. Jobless claims rose 4,000 to 302,000 in the week ended 30 August.

The US payrolls advanced 142,000 in August that was smallest...

Read More

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 1 September 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The Ukraine-Russia tension rises in heat after British government claimed Russia troops have entered into Eastern Ukraine. The US President Obama condemns the incursion but will not counter by military actions. NATO has planned to impose more sanction against Russia economy as form of punishment. Russia President Putin repels the aggression and warns their nuclear power. Surprisingly, American stocks remained firm last week while commodity prices still lied low. European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi signals of more stimuli if economic situation deteriorates.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices escalated last week while closed at 95.90 levels on Friday. On Wednesday, the weekly crude inventories were down 2.1 million barrels against positive 1.1 million barrels forecast. Demand drive up the market prices in addition to tension in Ukraine-Russia military rupture. Technically, we predict the trend...

Read More

US Stocks Garner in Strong Trend

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 1 September 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US shows improved economic data in durable goods order and growth in Q2 performance. American stocks rise amid speculation that growth will continue into coming new quarter with S&P 500 closes above 2000 benchmarks. Japan stays sluggish after sales rise effect has begun to slow down domestic demand and growth. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi signals more stimulus if if economic situation worsens.

The US new home sale declined 2.4 percent in July to 412,000 annualized pace, making lowest in past 4 months after June was revised to 422,000 annualized rates. Order for durable goods soared 22.6 percent after revised 2.7 percent gains in June, confirmed by surge for airplane demand. But core order slid 0.8 percent versus revised 1.7 percent gains in prior month after transport equipment...

Read More

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 25 August 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The US and the European Union jointly condemn Russia’s decision to send a convoy of 280 trucks into the battle-torn eastern Ukraine. Russia claims to deliver humanitarian aid while Ukrainian government calls the unauthorized entry as “invasion.” Both Crude and Gold prices traded lower on weekly basis as Dow Jones stocks climbed higher. This week, both commodities might recover amid the geo-political tension in Ukraine.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed at 93.30 on Friday and near to intra-week low at 92.60 levels. The market is threading sideways amid uncertainty and affected by war tension in Ukraine. This week, we reckon the range will trade from 92.00 – 95.00 regions as short-covering may emerge. However, market sentiment is still weak with many long trades stuck at higher prices. Hence, we suspect lower bottom may be...

Read More

US Labor Market Lags Behind Recovery

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 25 August 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US inflation lags in fatigue though jobless claims continues to make progress. FED Yellen comments labor market is still behind improvement goal and refrains from discussing interest rates in annual Jackson Hole meeting. Japan recovers in overseas shipment from past 2 months' declines. UK declines in inflation and policymakers opt for unchanged policy in interest rates and stimulus program.

The US housing starts jumped 15.7 percent in July to 1.09 million annualized rates, hitting strongest record since November. Inflation remains flat after consumer price index increased 0.1 percent against up 0.3 percent in June. Core prices rose 0.1 percent and same as prior month.

American jobless claims fell 14,000 to 298,000 in the week ended 16 August. Job market is making progress in world's largest economy with improved signs. Existing...

Read More

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 18 August 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The Ukraine tension persists in threatening the market stability with much uncertainty. Euro economy declines after Germany slowed down in business confidence and consumer prices. On Friday, the simultaneous flight to US Dollar weighed down on Gold prices. Weekly crude inventories rose 1.4 million barrels in the week ended 9 August but prices jumped on Friday after Ukraine said they destroyed a filtrating force from Russia.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices fell from 97.00 regions to 93.80 bottoms last week after crude inventories growth. The market jumped on Friday and closed at 95.10 after Ukraine said it had destroyed a convoy forces entering the country. This week, we foresee the market will be supported at 94.00 levels while recovering at 98.00 areas. Breaking above 98.00 resistances will probably test 100.00 as ultimate targets in case...

Read More

UK Grows in Confidence amid Job Rise

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 18 August 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US economy threads sideways while policymaker comments interest rate may rise faster than expectation. Japan stays sluggish and may slump further by year-end. Among all major economies, UK continues to strengthen with better jobs rise and annual GDP gains.

The US retail sale had zero growth in July against expected gains. Core retail sale grew 0.1 percent and down from prior month 0.4 percent gains. Weekly jobless claims ended 9 August rose to 311,000 compared to revised 290,000 in previous week.

American wholesale prices climbed 0.1 percent in July and matched median forecast. Core producer prices gained 0.2 percent. St. Louis FED President James Bullard says interest rates might rise faster than policymakers' expectation before year-end.

Japan's revised industrial production for June was minus 3.4 percent versus expected positive gain....

Read More