Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 May 2012

The US dollar index rose last week and punted down on oil and gold prices. Iraq says it will double the oil production output by 2015 and this will overtake the Iran as OPEC's second largest producer at end of this year. This adds pressure to lower oil prices and Gold has been liquidated in international markets after Europe returns in debt crisis tension.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices came off to 95.50 regions as we forecast last week in weak technical trend. The market may face some short-covering in coming early week but resistance has shifted lower to 98.00 levels. While the market may swing between 95.00 – 98.00 ranges in some consolidation, we shall open our next lower target at 92.50 regions should the bears take control after mid week.

Gold

Gold prices have been reduced to 1570.00 regions as suggested last week. Moving forward, we reckon the market sentiment will...

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The Euro Debt Crisis Intensifies Again

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations – 14 May 2012

Fundamental Outlook

The US economy remains flat while Europe resurges in crisis tension. Japan pledges to increase the currency liquidity should financial turmoil returns. The UK economy slumps in fatigue with retail sales and construction both sinking. Bank of England (BOE) stands on alert to add stimulus for fighting the slowdown in case the crisis spreads.

The US wholesale inventories rose 0.3 percent in March after followed 0.9 percent gain in prior month. Jobless claims dropped 1,000 filings to 367,000 in the week ended 5 May. Employment remains unsteady with consumer spending contracting.

The trade deficit widened more than forecast in March when trade gap grew 14 percent to USD51.8 billion. Imports jumped for foreign hardware and automobiles. Another report on producer price index slid 0.2 percent in April after no change in March, led...

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The US Payrolls Rise At Minimal Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations – 07 May 2012

Fundamental Outlook

The US payrolls shrinks again while jobless claims lessens due to contracting offerings in employment. American economy stagnates together with the Eurozone moving into recession at highest unemployment in past 15-year record. UK housing persists and slows down though policymakers still believe economic recovery is underway.

The US Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. reported its business index decreased to 56.2 in April from prior month 62.2 and indicated slowdown in manufacturing. Another service index from this same institution on non-manufacturing sectors slid to a 4-month low 53.5 from 56 in March. Both readings indicated the slowdown in economic recovery.

The American consumer spending increased 0.3 percent in March that was same as forecast while factory orders fell 1.5 percent after a revised 1.1 percent gain in February. On Thursday, jobless claims dropped 27,000...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 07 May 2012

Crude prices began to fall in mid last week after Europe declared slowdown in demands. Friday release of contracting payrolls in US economy further hammered the crude prices to below 100.00 benchmarks for closing as investors lost confidence on the road of economy.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices sank to 100.00 levels as we predicted last week from our prone bias to bearishness. This week, we reckon resistance will emerge at 100.70 – 101.00 regions for many long traders to unwind their positions. The market might probably drill lower to attempt the 95.50 supports before short-covering surfaces. Therefore, we expect the range to stretch from 95.00 – 101.00 regions in coming week.

Gold

Gold has adhered to the bearish outlook of technical trend since it could not conquer above the 1650.00 resistance. Market fizzled out at 16710.00 regions last week from slowdown in European economy and cooling down in U.S. recovery. This week,...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 30 Apr 2012

Crude prices remain jittery while on weaker side after Europe followed into the worrisome news of Spain's downgrade in credit rating. The remarks of U.S. FED chairman Bernanke on eagerness to add stimulus in supporting the economic recovery has put the dollar at bay while reversing up the Gold prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude was making small range of consolidation last week while capped below 106.00 resistances. This week, breaking and settling above 106.00 levels will attempt 108.50 levels if global demands rise unexpectedly. Otherwise, the technical outlook of natural strength is still prone to weakness that may sink to 100.00 benchmarks. Shorting from topside prices above 105.00 levels may be a better trading opinion with well-controlled risk management.

Gold

Gold is reacting to Bernanke's remarks of possible QE3 policy while market trend is still digesting it in bullish sentiment. The market climbed above EMA200 and 1650.00 levels last week which signaled strong buying...

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S&P’s Agency Downgrades Spain

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations – 30 Apr 2012

Fundamental Outlook

The US economy deteriorates in contracting new home sales and durable goods orders. FED chairman Bernanke reiterates of aiming to support with more stimulus programs while keeping interest rates at bay. Eurozone debts rise to record high in 2011 since it started and Spain is downgraded in credit rating. UK slips into recession after GDP for Q1 slid 0.2 percent.

The US new home sales rose to 328,000 annual rates, making a 7.1 percent decline from revised rising figure of 353,000 pace in February. The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence dropped to 69.7 in April from prior month 70.2. Amid shedding confidence of investors, FED Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is on standby mode to add more stimulus if necessary even while leaving the existing low interest policy....

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The Euro Debt Woes May Resurge

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations – 23 Apr 2012

Fundamental Outlook

The US sees bumpy recovery in housing markets though retail sales pick up unexpectedly. Euro-debt fears surface again after Spanish yield soared to above 6.0 percent. G20 leaders met in Washington last week and warned Euro financial ministers to fix this viral issue urgently. UK begins to see small economic recovery but policymakers persist in holding on to stimulus program.

The US retail sales rose more than forecast in March by 0.8 percent gain and almost three times above median forecast. National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence decreased to 25 this month from 28 in March. Another report on housing starts slid 5.8 percent in March to a 654,000 annual rate, indicating tough road to housing recovery.

The US factories dropped 0.2 percent in March for the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 Apr 2012

Crude prices have been jittery last week until it rose on Friday while responding to stronger business confidence. Gold commodity was trading in whipsaws last week due to many uncertainties. Slow down in global demands has put a lid on Gold prices but a weaker dollar sets to inflate the yellow metal prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude is literally moving inside the range from 102.00 to 106.00 regions. This week, the technical resistance is quite visual at 105.50 levels but could be broken into a new bullish trend if any fresh fundamental factors could create short-squeeze in market. Otherwise, a gradual softening on the market trend will eventually the prices going down to 100.00 benchmarks.

Gold

Gold is well supported at 1630.00 levels after the down trend failed in tampering it. Since the market is still gliding beneath the EMA200 line at 1650.00 levels, it will be difficult to predict the imminent trend...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 16 Apr 2012

China slows down in growth which has put a cap on the oil prices. Gold prices fell on Friday and snapped the bulls after rising for 6 days. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said the central bank must increase its focus on maintaining financial stability so as to prevent the same recession in 1930s.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude closed at 102.83 on Friday after turning down from last week’s high 104.24. The market is beginning to consolidate while capped by 105.00 resistances. This week, we foresee the trend will be prone bearish and may test 100.00 benchmarks from weaker demands. Slowdown in demands from China will put a lid on oil prices from rising.

Gold

Gold reversed down on Friday and closed at 1657.44 on Friday. The trend is now swinging from 1620.00 to 1680.00 and most likely will be threading in the lower regions from 1620.00 – 1650.00 regions in coming week. Gold...

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The US Weekly Claims Rise since January

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations – 16 Apr 2012

Fundamental Outlook

The US economy recovers on bumpy road with mild inflation and rising claims while imports fall. Japan vows to keep the stimulus in pipeline for eradicating deflation. Europe may deepen into debt woes again with Portugal asking for financial aid from European Central Bank (ECB).

The US wholesale inventories rose more than forecast in February when stockpiles gained 0.9 percent from prior month. The US import-price index rose 1.3 percent in March and indicated higher costs for industrial materials. Another report on core producer prices climbed 0.3 percent after 0.2 percent rise in February and confirmed the mild inflation.

The US weekly initial claims rose 13,000 ended 7 April to 380,000, the highest since end January. The trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in February as imports fell by the most in three years....

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