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Britain Votes for BREXIT and Shocks Market

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 27 June 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. home market data contradict as more interest lean towards resale properties. European markets sink to fear of bearish sentiment after U.K. voted for BREXIT on last Thursday. Market analysts reckon more risk will emerge in financial market instruments.

The U.S. existing homes sales increased 5.53 million in May and best since January this year, also hitting 9-year high. New home sales grew 551,000 in May versus 586,000 revised for April, tuning down the market sentiment after heated up by rising existing home sales.

American weekly jobless claims drop slightly after it was reported at 259,000 in the week ended 18 June, lowest in 8-week record. Another report on core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, contracted 0.3 percent in May after a 0.5 percent gains in prior month.

Japan’s...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 27 June 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold surged from flight to quality after European currencies declined last week. Yellow metal jumped about USD80 ranges on Friday but settled at mid-ranged prices 1314.00 for the weekend. Crude prices also sank after BREXIT swarmed the market into fear of selling sentiment. Moving forward, we foresee fund will move back into Dollar index for short-term as safe haven due to uncertainty in European markets.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices failed to close above 50.00 levels last week after 3 days of attempt. Hence, we foresee the market will dip this week and begin to bear trend. Range is expected to test 43.00 as our first target when downtrend materialized. Piercing above 50.00 again might reverse our forecast though chances are slim.

Gold

Gold prices rose to 1358.00 highs on Friday but receded to...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 20 June 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold short squeezed the market sellers by exceeded 1310.00 highs and fell before weekend. Yellow metal becomes an inverse hedge to BREXIT outcome as investors use it as alternative to Pound investment. Crude prices begin to soften as demand news wanes. Market investors are watching BREXIT vote for coming week and Dollar direction as gauge to prime commodity like Gold, Silver and Crude as safe haven.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed at weaker prices after the trend sank below USD50.00 /barrel benchmarks. This week, we foresee not much positive factors will drive the prices higher unless Dollar falls badly. Range is expected to be resisted at 50.00 benchmarks while open to decline further for correction. We predict the bears will reach down to 43.00 bottoms in near future as fund flight out...

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FED Holds Rate Unchanged While Investors Watch Britain

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 20 June 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. job market tightens while consumer inflation slows down. Japan holds policy unchanged. Greece wins new bailout approval worth EUR7.5 billion. U.K. sentiment submerges in anxiety as national referendum on BREXIT will be held this week.

The U.S. retail sales rose 0.5 percent in May and lower than 1.3 percent in April. Core retail, excluding automobiles, grew 0.4 percent at half of prior month's growth. Another separate report on producer prices gained 0.4 percent in May, highest record in past 12 months.

American industrial output dropped 0.4 percent after revised 0.6 percent growth in April. Weekly claims for jobless benefits rose to 4 –week high at 277,000 ended 11 June. Consumer prices grew slower at 0.2 percent in May versus 0.4 percent gains in April. Core prices rose 0.2...

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FED Yellen Hints Possibility of Two Rate Hikes

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 13 June 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. media still debates over recent lower-than-expected payroll that might suppress rate hike possibility. However, FED Yellen surprises market by hinting 2 times tightening may be needed. China reports on slowdown in consumer inflation amid rising trade surplus, propelling a market expectation for new stimulus by market observers. U.K. reports better manufacturing production with growth.

The U.S. weekly claims for jobless benefits show 264,000 in the week ended 4 June and not much different to previous data. Wholesale inventories climbed 0.6 percent in April and higher than revised 0.2 percent in March, indicating slower consumer demand.

Federal Reserve chair Yellen comments on 2 times rate hike may be possible before year-end but has not hinted on specific time frame. However, market analysts reckon the poor payroll in May has...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 13 June 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold recovered very rapidly last week due to fear of Brexit in U.K. market sentiment. Pound drops amid fear and gives a lending hand to Dollar recovery. In lieu of this correlation, we foresee Crude prices will begin to slide soon as a flight to quality pattern. WTI prices have failed to hold above USD50 per barrel for more than 3 days that could indicate bears coming soon.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have not been able to stand above USD50 per barrel. Technically, we predict the trend is going to slide very soon as fund flight to currency and Gold ahead of U.S. FOMC and Brexit referendum. This week, the trend is strongly resisted at 51.00 with possibility to head southward. Targets are set separately aimed at S1 – 46.00 and S2...

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FED Yellen Hints Rate Hike Could be Coming Soon

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 30 May 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. general economic data show strong signs in housing and job markets, except a weaker GDP growth in Q1. G7 meeting ends with no new agreement made between the finance ministers. Germany maintains in manufacturing growth. U.K. shows flat economic performance.

American new home sales rose 619,000 in April and best in 9-year record, after March showed 513,000 growth. Another report on weekly jobless claims dropped to 268,000 in the week ended 21 May.

Orders for U.S. core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, rose 0.4 percent after it gained revised 0.1 percent in March. The prelim GDP for Q1 rose just 0.8 percent, weakest since first quarter 2015. However, Federal Reserve chair Yellen hints that rate hike could be appropriate over coming months.

Japan’s trade balance records a surplus...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 30 May 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold and Silver prices dropped last week while yellow metals shook off more downside range due to panic liquidation. Venezuela sold USD1.7 billion worth of Gold reserves to repay debts. USD Index also edged higher towards 7-week highs and closed at 95.70 before weekend. Crude prices have reached USD50 per barrel benchmarks and catches global attention.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices touched 50.00 last week and closed near to this benchmark before weekend. Moving forward, we foresee resistance may emerge in market very soon though the top could reach into 52.00 levels. Global supply glut still lingers in market and the imminent of rate hike in min-June will be a threat to strong Crude prices. Downside support is identified at 42.00 and possibly will be tested again once the market corrects in...

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Expectation of Rate Hike in June Heightens

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 23 May 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economic data shows recovery and suggests possible rate hike in June. Eurozone increases in current account while British jobless claim slides. U.K. retail sales also jumps and strengthens Pound value.

The U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in April, highest since May last year and giving an expectation to rate hike in next month. Excluding fresh food and energies, core prices gained 0.2 percent and matches the forecast. Building permits rose 1.12 million and higher than 1.08 million gains in March, boosting some confidence in housing markets. Housing starts also climbed 1.17 million in April.

American jobless claims dropped to 278,000 in the week ended 14 May and lower than 294,000 in previous week, fueling job market recovery for possible imminent rate hike. Manufacturing index in Philadelphia slides...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 May 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dollar Index (USDX) climbed higher above 95.00 last week and put lid on Gold and Silver prices. We reckon the Dollar Index will reach 96.00 – 96.40 tops before being countered by selling pressure, hence commodities might lie low till end of May before new buying interest summons in June. WTI Crude has slowed in ascension and capped below USD50.00 per barrel. U.S. FED policymakers make comments again on possible rate hike in June should economy point to growth.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have slowed down in demand but still waiting for momentum to turn into negative zone before selling activity arises. This week, we remain dormant in market by observing the resistance at 50.00 levels to be tested. Short-term range is expected from 46.00 – 50.00 regions while turning down beyond...

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