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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 June 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold slid last week after Greece failed to reach debt repayment plan with European creditors. The Dollar index (USDX) also recovered from 94.00 to 95.00 regions that suppressed the prices of general commodities. The pressure of Greek possible default has lifted the Dollar and fuels headwinds to most commodity prices. Crude prices hold up well in-line of talks between international oil groups with Iran on developing nuclear deal.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been oscillating around 60.00 benchmarks for many weeks. The market is gradually forming a plateau formation that is prone to fall eventually. Technically, we remain the same technical view on projecting the market range from 57.00 – 62.00 in coming week. Only breaking beyond any side of this range constriction will lead into new trend direction. However, pay attention...

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Greece Asks for Bailout Vote Beyond June

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 June 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing demand shows recovery in better annualized increment. Job claims remain steady in tight market while consumer sentiment rises. Attention has been staked in Greece on debt repayment before end June while Prime Minister Tsipras calls for another delayed vote on 5 July. Market investors are taking the Greek outcome as market benchmark for next week's trend.

The U.S. existing home sales increased 5.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.35 million units in May, the highest level since November 2009. Another separate report on new home sales rose 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000 units, the highest level since February 2008.

American core capital goods order rose 0.5 percent in May after it was revised at 0.2 percent contraction in April, signaling business...

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Greece Faces Default by End June

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 June 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The FED policymakers stress on near zero interest rates but vote for rate hike before year-end. Japan central bank also pledges for consistent monetary expansion annually. European Central Bank (ECB) is facing challenge of Greece default after the failure of reaching a reform deal. Europe slides into alarm while investors keep eyes on this week's meeting outcome on lending countries.

The U.S. factory output declined 0.2 percent in May after it was revised at 0.5 percent contraction in April. Building permits grew 1.25 million annualized rates in May and higher than expected. Housing starts were reported at 1.04 million annually and lower than revised annualized rates at 1.17 million in April.

American jobless claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 for the week ended 13...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 June 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold has recovered to 1200.00 benchmarks last week and exhibited its strength again for the investors. Dollar index has fallen below 95.00 and probably will trade sideways inside 93.00 – 95.00 ranges in coming weeks. Crude oil also has been staying strong at 60.00 regions amid moderate demand. However, report on growing shale oil output and Greece debt debacle keep investors on their toes as commodity markets inch up.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices still threads around 60.00 with no direction. Technically, we foresee the trend will move sideways from 57.00 – 62.00 ranges without clear trend ahead. Only breaking below 57.00 supports will initiate new selling pressure in market. Trade cautiously for tie being with proper risk control.

Gold

Gold prices crossed the 1190.00 levels and beat 1200.00 major benchmarks on last Thursday....

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MSCI Delays in Adding China A-Share

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 13 June 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S retails sales rise amid steady jobs report. China surges in trade balance but slows in producer factory gate prices that triggers speculation for more imminent stimulus. U.K. economy advances in steady pace amid domestic austerity measures.

The U.S. retail sales gained 1.2 percent in May and better than revised 0.2 percent gains in April. Excluding autos, core retail sales was up 1.0 percent after rising 0.1 percent in previous month. Jobless claims were reported at 279,000 in the week ended 6 June and almost unchanged from prior week.

The U.S. producer prices rose 0.5 percent in May and put credit tightening on higher alert, after the data showed 0.4 percent decline in April. Preliminary estimate on consumer sentiment by University of Michigan reports higher at 94.6 for the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 13 June 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dollar has been recovering last week but still unable to illustrate real bullish strength. The delay action of MSCI in adding China A-shares into MSCI Emerging Market Index has put the yellow metal on hold with other Yuan denominated commodities. Dollar trend has weakened mildly against ASEAN currencies and lifted the Crude demand on some interest. Weekly Crude inventories have been cut by 6.8 million in prior week and helps to support Crude prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices revisited the 61.81 highs over past 4 weeks and settled neat 60.00 for weekend. Market is prone to make marginal high but should be swift to climb in coming week. Otherwise staying too many days at this top formation may lose steam easily. This week, we reckon closing above 62.00 resistances will ascend to...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 1 Jun 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold fell below 1200.00 benchmarks last week again as Dollar strengthened. Yellow metal is seen to be supported at 1180.00 grounds despite Dollar rise as investors still favor it as safe haven. Crude prices hovers at 60.00 regions as Crude inventories have been reduced by 2.8 million barrels in the week ended 23 May. Saudi Arabia has maintained record production in May as top Crude producer among OPEC countries, output of 10.25 million barrels daily.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices recovered above 60.00 benchmarks on Friday after Saudi Arabia announced record production in the month of May. Market investors perceived as strong demand rising soon to counter the output. This week, we foresee the trend may climb higher to 65.00 targets if the bulls can conquer immediate 62.00 resistances. Downside support remains at...

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The U.S. Government Cuts Estimate for Q1 Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 1 June 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. orders for durable goods and housing data are stronger, but government still cuts estimate gains in Q1 growth due to enlarging trade deficits. Japan's inflation struggles to meet policymaker's preset target at 2.0 percent though consumer spending increases. U.K. maintains pace of growth in Q1.

The U.S. Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 95.4 in May. April's reading was revised lower to 94.3 from 95.2. Orders for core durable goods, excluding transportation and equipment, rose 0.5 percent in April after the previous month was revised higher to 0.3 percent gains. Another separate report on new homes sales climbed by 517,000 in April.

American weekly claims for state unemployment benefits rose 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 282,000 for the week ended May 23, remaining below 300,000 levels for...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 25 May 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold traded in slight bearish sentiment last week due to rising Dollar. Crude prices have been holding at 60.00 regions but may be prone to fall in coming week amid tension in Middle East. Violence in Middle East has increased worries of supply in oil after one suicide bomber blew up himself in Shi'ite mosque in Eastern Saudi Arabia on last Friday.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been moving in tight range from 57.00 – 62.00 regions. This week, it will be interesting to observe the market trend as either direction is possible. The trend may pierce above 62.00 resistances and test 64.00 areas before the bulls fizzle out. However, winding down below 57.00 supports will land at 54.00 as our secondary supports.

Gold

Gold prices slid from 1232.00 highs last week and...

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Bank of Japan Remains Policy Unchanged

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 25 May 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. inflation edges higher and trigger speculation of rate hike around coming year-end. Policymakers express of recovery bog down as bond yield rises. Japan maintains monetary unchanged amid high expectation of stimulus by market traders. U.K. inflation falls below zero benchmark for the first time in 55 years and marks slowdown in economic recession.

The U.S. building permit gained 1.14 million in April at annualized rates and higher than prior month 1.04 million growth. Housing starts also rose 1.14 million from March and above expectation. Another report reveals the existing home sales rose 5.04 million annualized rates in April and dropped from previous month 5.21 million annual pace.

Weekly jobless claims for the week ended 16 May went up to 274,000 against 264,000 in previous data. American consumer prices...

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