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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 26 Nov 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices slid further last week and has created panic market sentiment after drawdown of 30 percent shortly over 7 weeks. Market landed at USD50 /barrel before the weekend and open-interest in Futures market is still recorded high. This week, we expect the trend to test USD48 – USD49 /barrel before short-covering arises. Overall range will be forecast from USD48 – USD54 /barrel as prices will recover ahead of OPEC meeting.

Gold

Gold prices were strongly resisted at USD1230 /oz though the price movement has traded narrowly. This week, we reckon a tight consolidation will initiate from USD1215 – USD1230 /oz but eventually will violate beyond this range. No clue for forecasting the directional headway while we place our next target on both side of the trend at USD1200 /oz and...

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WTI Crude Falls to 7-Week Low

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 26 November 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The US has a short week due to Thanksgiving holiday. Crude prices plunge into 2-month low as supply increases. UK is facing tough challenge as moving towards BREXIT deadline.

The US housing starts rose 1.23 million in October while building permits expanded 1.26 million. Both matched the forecast.

Another report on American orders for durable goods slid 4.4 percent in October. Excluding transport equipment, core orders rose 0.1 percent. Both data are below forecast. Weekly claims increased to 224,000 in the week ended 17 November.

Last Wednesday, President Trump has released a press note stating the importance of maintaining bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia on current business relationship. The message hints the protection of national interest between the 2 countries over the murder of reporter Khashoggi which may involve...

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Global Vegoils Analysis – 22 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.11.22日周四美盘豆油昨日晚间中阳K线上涨技术反弹序幕出现苗头

昨日周三晚间,美盘豆油红盘上涨,一根中阳K线的出现(阳包三阴),揭示出美豆油在持续超跌之后,在前低27.37位置受到支撑之后,终于在“感恩节前夜”出现反身动作, 潜在存在技术上“双重底”雏形, 我们继续保持低位酝酿反弹观点不变,后市短线关注反弹过程中上行动能。。。美盘今日因公共假期将停盘一天。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1901主力合约,昨日周三为带下影线的阳K线上涨表现,盘中多头主力仍在顽强抵抗。 内盘豆粕1901合约,昨日也是阳K线上涨,其实豆粕品种前几日就早早率先出现反弹上行走势,继续关注二品种上行力度。 内盘棕榈油1901主力合约,由于受马盘棕榈油下挫疲软走势影响,前期盘面表现一直弱于内盘豆油,关注其后市表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或2月),在消化吸收马来西亚高库存数据利空消息之后,昨日周三盘面出现久违的“带下影线的中阳K线”,期价瞬间毛刺下跌见1875令吉特之后,尾盘报收于1936令吉特,我们一直坚定认为,2000令吉特之下可以瞬间短线下挫,但期价不会持久维持在低位, 越是往下“砸坑”,越是空头“陷阱”嫌疑, 昨日马盘棕榈油低位也出现止跌企稳苗头。

小结: 美盘豆油出现“双重底”K线形态走势苗头,马盘棕榈油也出现止跌企稳迹象, 内盘油脂商品是否多头信心会略微强势一些? 让我们继续关注油脂商品后市短线变盘信号是否会得到延续。。。。具体操作上: 前期新老多单继续谨慎持有,变盘信号出现痕迹之后,关注随后的反弹动能是否有效配合。

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. soybean oil showed double bottom pattern.

[ACTION]
• Malaysia palm oil showed sign of rebound. • Traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal...

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UK Parliament Faces Tough Challenge in BREXIT Deal

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 19 November 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The US retail prices grow faster while President Trump aims to suppress inflation by keeping low oil prices. Eurozone slows down in trade surplus while Germany stagnates in growth. British Government faces tough challenge for negotiating BREXIT deal.

The US consumer prices rose 0.3 percent while core prices grew 0.2 percent, both matched the forecast. Another report on retail prices rose 0.8 percent in October, while core prices excluding transport equipment grew 0.7 percent. Both data are above forecast and signal inflation.

Saudi Arabia is cutting oil shipment to US with intention to squeeze stockpile shortage in Government's storage, in return driving up demand prices. This action might rile President Trump who wants to contain inflation prices for Americans.

China's industrial production including utilities and mines grew 5.9...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 19 Nov 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices climbed quickly after took a dip beneath USD55 /barrel at 12-month low. This week, we predict the initial range will be contained from USD55 – USD60 /barrel until we see a breakthrough in either direction. The trend needs to settle above USD60 /barrel in order to resume the bullish strength, which is in-line with piercing above the EMA200 average line.

Gold

Gold prices bounced off the USD1200 /oz bottom after briefly took a dip beneath this level. Market recovered to USD1220 /oz on Friday due to short-covering. This week, we are remaining unchanged in our opinion that the trend is still trapped in large range from USD1200 – USD1240 /oz region. In our opinion, Dollar is returning to main focal instrument by traders for watching the inverse relationship...

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IMF Lowers Growth Forecast in Europe

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 12 November 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The US midterm election has revealed the challenge to be faced by President Trump as Democrats regain power in Government House. American economy stays on inflation pace. International Monetary Fund lowers growth outlook in Europe due to much uncertainty in market turbulence. UK stagnates in growth after GDP does not exceed expectation.

The US ISM services index rose 60.3 in October and remained on growing pace. The jobless claims report at 214,000 in the week ended 3 November and matched forecast.

America producer prices rose 0.6 percent in October while core prices climbed 0.5 percent. Both reports were above forecast and signal inflation in US economy.

After the US midterm election, the outcome has split the power of Congress with Democrats regaining the majority power in the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 12 Nov 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

Crude prices stay on weak demand as supply continues to increase among OPEC countries. The U.S. Federal Reserve officials signal another rate hike to come in December and more tightening will be expected in next year. Dollar Index (USDX) firms up to 97.00 benchmark again and puts pressure on commodity prices. On the other hand, the U.S. midterm election has split the Presidential power with Democrats regaining control in the Government House.

WTI Crude prices have been falling for fifth consecutive weekly basis. Market dipped below USD60 /barrel on Friday. Currently, we expect the market trend will be supported at USD58 - USD60 /barrel region while confluent to the EMA200 line on week-chart. This week, bargain-hunting activity is expected to emerge at the support region and going for a technical recovery....

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 Oct 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices fell to 3-month low beneath USD66 /barrel and bounced before weekend closed. Technically, there is a strong support at USD66 /barrel that is confluent to EMA200 line on day-chart. Fundamentally, we expect the market is taking a breather sue to rising Dollar trend. This week, some recovery is expected and the range could move from USD66 – USD70 /barrel amid moderate activity.

Gold

Gold prices trade higher amid slowing demand. Trend seems to behave in fatigue at USD1240 /oz resistance. This week, we reckon the trend may test briefly above USD1240 /oz and begin to correct. Range will be toppish at USD1250 /oz while landing at USD1220 /oz area will meet the first buying demand. Nevertheless, we do not discount the possibility of market staying flat on topside...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 Oct 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices declined beneath USD71 /barrel support and settled at USD69 /barrel region on Friday. This week, we expect the trend will be in lower demand and range from USD67 – USD71 /barrel in mixed sentiment. Firm Dollar is another factor that adds pressure onto energy prices despite fund is likely to rush into precious metals. Fundamentally, we shall wait for other new market news in November to rekindle new buying demand in Crude market.

Gold

Gold prices have slowed down and rattled around USD1230 /oz for few days before weekend. Technically, we predict the trend will be constricted from USD1215 – USD1230 /oz until it breaks beyond either direction. In case of Dow Jones market falling further in coming week, there is a possibility to see yellow metal rising...

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BoE Reiterates Confidence in BEXIT Impact

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 October 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing data slide in building permit and existing home sales. China maintains in GDP as expected. Bank of England reiterates confidence in cushioning BREXIT impact.

The U.S. building permit rose 1.24 million in September and lower than revised 1.24 million gains in August. Housing starts expanded within limit of 1.20 million and below forecast.

The U.S. existing home sales declined for sixth month in September by expanding 5.15 million. American jobless claims for the week ended 13 October at 210,000 and improved from prior week 215,000.

China's consumer prices rose 2.5 percent in September on year basis. Another report on producer prices grew 3.6 percent from a year ago. Both matched forecast.

China's retail sales grew 9.2 percent in September from a year ago and...

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