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Bank of England Urges Flexibility in Financial Regulations

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 24 April 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing markets show sign of recovery while Treasury Secretary reassures a positive tax-reform is in the pipeline. France suffers another terrorist attack before Presidential election starts in May. U.K. begins to see gradual slowdown as BREXIT commences while central bank urges flexibility in suiting the economic changes.

The U.S. building permits rose 1.26 million in March and higher than revised 1.22 million in prior month. Another report on housing starts expanded 1.22 million and dipped to lowest in 4-month record.

According to weekly inventories, U.S. crude storage cut down by 1 million barrels on week ended 15 April and matched forecast. Weekly jobless claims were reported at 244,000 remains steady. Existing home sales rose 10-year high in March with 5.71 million growth.

Philadelphia manufacturing index grows at 22.0...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 24 April 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices have exhibited a reversal pattern in week-chart and likely to drawdown for correction this week. Range is target to recede lower at USD1250 /oz region in case of liquidation. Market has not seen profit-taking for last 3 weeks and might be commencing soon. However, beware of geo-political tension in DPR Korea that could spike the yellow metal as safe haven while bypassing above USD1285 /oz will climb higher to USD1310 /oz region.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have shown waning confidence in buying interest as the bulls have failed to clear above USD54 /barrel. As the consolidating range is still restricted from USD50 – USD54 /barrel, we are seeing a danger of demand that might probably slide out of the range and kick-off a new bearish sentiment in market. We...

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U.S. Bombs Afghanistan and Dow Market Bludgeons

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 17 April 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. inflation reflected by producer and consumer prices contract. American military action hits Afghanistan unexpectedly but hammers Dow Jones market. Japan reports higher inflation and growth in machine orders. U.K. inflation stays resilient.

The U.S. producer prices shrank 0.3 percent and first time decline after 7 months, compared to 0.3 percent gains in February. Unemployment claims improved in the week ended 8 April at 234,000 and below forecast.

American consumer prices shrank 0.3 percent in March and turned negative for first time in past 13 months. Excluding food and energy, core prices also dropped to minus 0.1 percent. Retails sales remained weak at minus 0.2 percent while core sales was flat at par.

On Friday morning in Asia, U.S. military force dropped a non-nuclear bomb on Afghanistan. Market analyst...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 17 April 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

WTI Crude prices closed at USD53.00 /barrel on Friday and signaled market strength though it did not jump higher. Traders stay on fence while watching OPEC leader Saudi in keeping promise on supply cut in April. Geo-political tension on Northern Asia may lift energy prices higher in coming week. Technically, we predict the range will be constricted from USD50 – USD55 /barrel until we see a breakthrough in near future.

Trump-Xi Summit Plans for 100-Day Trade Deal

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 10 April 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. bombards Syria on the same day when President Trump meet Chinese leader Xi. American payroll disappoint the investors with unexpected low growth. Japan makes slow growth reflected in quarterly Tankan's report. British Prime Minister has triggered BREXIT while central bank governor Carney calls for recognition of bank rules with European Union.

The U.S. manufacturing index compiled by ISM expanded at 57.2 in March. Construction spending rose 0.8 percent after contracted 0.4 percent in February. Another report on factory order rose 1.0 percent and in-line with forecast while the ISM services index expanded at 55.2 in March versus 57.6 in February.

The U.S. unemployment claims dropped to 234,000 in the week ended 1 April. Building permits shrank 2.5 percent in February after revised 5.8 percent gains in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 10 April 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

WTI Crude prices have recovered into bullish trend after the market stood above USD52/ barrel benchmark. However, we expect this sentiment to hold throughout this week, otherwise falling back will indicate insufficient bull factor in market. Technically, we reckon the trend will be constricted from USD49 - USD54 /oz range this week mostly in small trading activity. The closing prices toward the coming weekend will reveal the forthcoming strength of Crude in Q2 season.

Japan Shows Best Unemployment Record

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 3 April 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. consumer confidence and pending home both rise higher. China maintains growth in manufacturing and services sectors. Japan has lowest record on unemployment in more than 10 years. Britain shrinks in current account at best 5-year record.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence jumped to 125.6 in March very unexpectedly, better than forecast and after gaining revised 116.1 in February. Pending homes sales also rose 5.5 percent unexpectedly and above minus 2.8 percent in January.

The U.S. first time claims for jobless benefits fell to 258,000 for the week ended 15 March from previous weekly data of 261,000. Final GDP for Q4 grew 2.1 percent and above forecast. American consumer spending rose 0.12 percent in February and lowest in past 6 months.

Weekly Crude inventories...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 3 April 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices traded narrowly from USD1240 – USD1260 /oz last week but still in firm sentiment. We reckon the market is waiting for the non-farm payroll on this Friday for a potential turndown into correction. This week, chances of seeing a dive down to USD1220 /oz is rather high while topside resistance is maintained at USD1260 /oz region. In the unlikely event of piercing above USD1260 /oz level, we shall see USD1280 /oz as our next target.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed above USD50 /barrel on Friday and re-exhibited the strength. Technically, we will map the trading range from USD48 – USD52 /barrel in coming week. Only crossing persistently above USD52 /barrel benchmark will indicate a new bullish trend while consolidating sideways in the aforementioned range will eventually initiate a draw...

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U.K. Faces Exit Bill from European Commission

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 27 March 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. new home sales improve while labor market tightens on more claims. U.K. continues to exhibit firm economic growth despite impending BREXIT. Terrorism launches in London and causes 5 dead, alarming British government on high guard.

The U.S. current account deficits narrowed to USD112 billion in January and lesser than forecast, compared to USD118 billion in previous month. Existing home sales grew 5.48 million in February and lowest in past 3-month record. Weekly crude inventories expanded 5 million barrels last week and higher than expectation.

The U.S. new home sales rose back to 4-month high at 592,000 amid steady growth in housing demand. Jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 258,000 though labor market is still strong. Another report on order for core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, rose 0.4 percent...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 27 March 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices challenged USD1250 /oz resistance but closed beneath this benchmark on Friday. The market is still resilient due to falling Dollar and fear of uncertainty among investors. This week, we forecast the trend will hold well above USD1225 /oz and trade sideways while respecting the USD1250 /oz resistance. However, beware of piercing above this resistance and the trend might advance to USD1270/oz in case of additional demand from global economic fear.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading in narrow range from USD47 – USD50 per barrel. The market is threatened by rising oil production in U.S. market despite OPEC has cut supply as planned. Technically, we project the price range will move from USD46 – USD50 /barrel but subject to fundamental influences of decline anytime. On the other hand, the...

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