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Federal Reserve Increase Interest Rate

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 20 March 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve hikes interest rates while Bank of Japan and Bank of England maintains unchanged. Netherland’s Prime Minister Rutte wins election and continues his reign on government amid public cheers. Euro currency recovers after the voting outcome.

American producer prices rose 0.3 percent in February and above forecast. Another report on core prices, excluding food and energy, also gained 0.3 percent. Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in February versus 0.6 percent gains in previous month. Core prices, excluding food and energy, expanded 0.2 percent and matched forecast.

Federal Reserve increases overnight fed fund rate by 25 basis points and bring the borrowing cost to 0.75 – 1.0 percent. Precious metals and Dow Jones markets rose after the announcement as investors interpreted the prices have built into the hike...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 20 March 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

WTI Crude prices almost reached USD47 /barrel low last week and panicked market. OPEC announces the production cut and has helped to lift the Crude prices back to USD48 /barrel on Friday. However, technical study shows that the price trend is currently hovering around EMA200 average line at USD48 /barrel and still indicate uncertainty of direction. This week, we reckon the range will trade from USD46 – USD50 /barrel while waiting for more fundamentals news. Market needs to return above USD50 /barrel before we could interpret the firmness in demand again!

China Reports First Trade Deficit in 2 Years

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 13 March 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy adds jobs that increase possibility of rate hike in coming week. Crude prices decline by the jump in shale oil production among U.S. manufacturers. China reports trade deficit for first time in 2 years amid low consumer prices. European Central Bank holds policy unchanged while observing the slowdown in economic progress.

The U.S. factory orders rose 1.2 percent in January and matched forecast. Trade deficit widened to USD48.5 billion in January compared to USD44.3 billion in previous month.

The U.S. weekly claims for jobless benefits remained stagnated at 243,000 last week while it bounced off 44-year low record. Monthly payroll adds 235,000 jobs in February and best record in past 7 months. Unemployment stays at 4.7 percent.

The U.S. crude inventory on weekly basis rose 8.2 million...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 13 March 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices landed on USD1200 /oz and demolished the buying enthusiasm in market. This week, we reckon the support at USD1180 /oz may be tested before a potential reversal comes into market. The trend is likely to conduct a sideways consolidation from USD1180 – USD1220 /oz in mixed sentiment amid rate hike uncertainty.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices broke down USD50 /barrel last week but is hovering now at EMA200 line. This week will be crucial to see a potential reversal above USD50 /barrel, otherwise it may plunge to USD44 /barrel region. The continual remark from OPEC is necessary to keep the market prices in USD50 – USD54 /barrel region. However, be wary to see a high Dollar in case of rate hike that might be detrimental to commodity demand.

Dow Jones Climbs above 21,000 for the First Time

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 06 March 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. weekly claims drop to 44-year low record. President Trump delivers his first speech to U.S. Congress and lifts Dow Jones to historical high. Japan stays weak in inflation prices. U.K. poises for growth in housing demand from approvals and construction index.

The U.S. orders for durable goods rose significantly in January by 1.8 percent, while core orders excluding transport equipment shrank 0.2 percent. Pending home sales dropped unexpectedly by 2.8 percent in January, lowest in a year record, compared to revised 0.8 percent gains in December.

The prelim GDP in U.S. economy gained 1.9 percent in final quarter and below forecast. Chicago manufacturing index rose to 57.4 in February, highest in 3-month record. Another report on Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reports the manufacturing index gained to 57.7...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 06 March 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices reached USD1263.00 /oz high last week and fell for profit-taking. Market is moving mixed sentiment after President Trump’s speech has created wide division of argument among U.S. politicians. This week, we foresee the trend should be supported at USD1220.00 /oz region and moves sideways but capped below USD1250.00 /oz resistance. Tight range will be expected though some demand will continue to be firm. Breaking below USD1220.00 /oz will begin new correction back to USD1200.00 /oz level.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices edge slightly lower last week but overall range was constricted from USD52.00 – USD55.00 /barrel region. Russia and Saudi that lead the OPEC group have promised to implement global supply cut by 1.8 million barrels per day since 2 months ago. On the other hand, U.S. shale drillers have started...

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America Improves in Housing Sales

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 27 February 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S homes sales rise in optimism amid caution of possible rate hike. The U.S. Treasury Secretary aims to implement tax reform before August. Net borrowing of U.K. public sector shrinks in slower pace while business investment falls.

Markit reports the U.S. manufacturing index expands to 54.3 after revised 55.0 gains in January. FED policymakers are prone to rate hike in March meeting.

The U.S. existing home sales hit 10-year high record in January by increasing 5.69 million. Another separate report on new home sales rose 555,000 units in January compared to 535,000 in December.

American weekly claims rose to 244,000 in the week ended 18 February. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says that he wants to see "very significant" tax reform passed before Congress' August recess.

In Japan, manufacturing index...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 27 February 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dow Jones benchmark scaled higher on Friday and closed at new historical high at 20,821 levels. President Trump fires at China by calling Grand Champion of currency manipulator but has been rebuffed by China’s Foreign Ministry. On Friday Gold prices climbed amid fear of uncertainty to 3-month high while Crude poised in price stability.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices moved in little tight range around USD54.00 /barrel region last week. Effective supply cut by OPEC members has been countered by an increased production in U.S. shale oil. Technically, we preset the range parameter from 52.00 – 55.00 in coming week while waiting to observe a breakaway. No clue for the trend forecast until we see the movement in Dollar or new announcement in global oil output for February.

Gold

Gold prices closed at USD1257.00...

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Global Markets Analysis – 20 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

20.02.2017 周一 油脂类商品下跌加速赶底

今天2月20日周一,是美国总统纪念日,美盘停盘一天 ,无交易。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,在上周五盘面上长阴K线急跌,盘中下跌加速迹象明显,内盘商品期货市场利空情绪蔓延(H7N9禽流感),今天周一早盘,期价低开高走小阳K线表现,当前油脂类商品短线下探寻底过程进行中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,受上周五整体油脂商品市场利空情绪影响,马盘毛棕榈油跳空低开低走,期价下跌幅度增大,今天周一盘中期价稍有止跌,恐慌情绪稍有缓解,但仍未出现明显的整理结束信号出现,恐在周五阴K线右下角仍需震荡点时间。

小结:上周五美豆油长阴K线急跌探底,短线超跌迹象开始显现,内盘马盘油脂商品追随性跟随,虽然有部分超卖迹象,但在美盘未出现明显的止跌信号前,我们不建议低位多单跟进(保守一些),等待美盘开盘后的具体走势指引。具体操作上:前期被套多单持仓不动,不建议空单追进,也不建议新多单进场抄底,我们再多观望一下美盘开盘后的具体表现(美盘豆油下挫整理 已经非常靠近下边轨支撑位置了)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil candlestick registered a low on Friday, indicating a sharp short-term decline, as China and Malaysia oils follow suit.
• Although there is some sign of overselling, we advise against entering long position before technical indicators suggest a stop to the decline US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders whose long positions were trapped by the downtrend are not advised to go short to pursue the downtrend, nor recommended to add long position. Instead, we shall observe the performance of the US market...

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Inflation Seen in Global Large Economies

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 20 February 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. reveals inflation signal in consumer and producer prices while Federal Reserve (FED) chair hints imminent rate hike. China also reports better inflation on annualized rate. U.K. shows higher consumer prices amid dropping claimant counts. British earnings stabilize with unemployment unchanged.

The U.S. producer prices rose 0.6 percent in January on monthly basis and twice the forecast, showing highest record in past 7 months. Federal Reserve (FED) Yellen comments that rate hike should be timed ahead instead of delaying too long. The U.S. overnight lending rates has been maintained at near to zero for 7 years and have raised twice since then.

The U.S. mortgage delinquencies for final quarter on home loans was reported at 4.80 percent and higher the Q3 at 4.52 percent. Consumer prices grew 0.6 percent...

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