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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 15 Dec 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude prices cause alarm to market as it stretches down to 4-1/2 year low at USD57.00 regions. Selling pressure came after the Saudi Oil Minister said their will maintain market share production and do not favor supply cut. Gold prices spiked up to 1238.00 regions last week and traded sideways at 1220.00 areas before weekend. China reports industrial production slowed down by expanding 7.2 percent in November from a year ago compared to 7.7 percent in October. General commodities have been moving in weak sentiment.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have moved into a strong southward journey after the comment of Saudi Government Minister. This week, we reckon the bears will continue to engulf the market and bring the prices down to 50.00 floors before profit-taking occurs. Topside resistance will...

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Crude Declines to 4-1/2 Year-Low while Stocks Dampen

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 15 December 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US retail sales climb while producer prices weaken amid declining crude prices. Jobs claims continue to stay on low side for progressing employment. Japan is preparing for new parliament after the December election as receding Yen slows down for observation. Crude breaks below USD60 per barrel benchmarks as more liquidation steps into market.

The US wholesale inventories rose 0.4 percent in October and above expected forecast. Ironically, retail sales climbed 0.7 percent in November, matching the highest estimate, after expanded 0.5 percent in prior month. Jobless claims slid 3,000 to 294,000 in the week ended 6 December and have been lying below 300,000 for past 3 months.

The US producer prices fell more than forecast in November, dropping 0.2 percent after followed 0.2 percent advance in the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 8 December 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The US non-farm payroll advanced in November by 321,000 while jobless rates held at 6-year low record of 5.8 percent. Dollar index surged on Friday evening to almost 6-year high at 89.30 levels and weighed down on commodity prices. Gold prices have been facing selling pressure above 1210.00 regions while Crude prices remain weak in the wake of rising US shale production. China reported lower manufacturing index in November that contracted demand for general commodity.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices are still weak but should face some short-covering before Christmas for profit-closing. This week, we aim at small range moving from 63.00 – 69.00 regions while picking bottom with controlled risk might be good attempt for short-term profits. We foresee the last 2 weeks of December will be thin volume with small...

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American Payroll Rises While Jobless Rate Falls to 6-Year Low

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 8 December 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S non-farm payroll advances at almost 3-year largest growth with jobless rate down to 6-year low record. Trade balance increases with narrowing gap. Euro area slows down in economy progress while central bank seeks to implement new stimulus in early 2015. Britain maintains space of recovery in steadiness.

The US Institute for Supply Management's factory index was little changed at 58.7 in November and remained strong in past 3-year record. Another report on its service index for October rose 59.3, better than previous month 57.1 reading.

American jobless claims decreased 17,000 to 297,000 in the week ended 29 November from 314,000 in the prior period. Trade gap narrowed by 0.4 percent in October to USD43.4 billion from the prior month's revised USD43.6 billion.

November payrolls advanced 321,000 and grew...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 1 December 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

General commodity prices plunged last week after Crude fell below USD70 per barrel benchmark. Gold closed lower on weekly basis while WTI Crude broke 4-1/2 year low record on Friday settlement. OPEC 12-natons group announces they will maintain 3 million barrels daily production despite rising shale production in US and triggers speculation to see the floor price at USD60 per barrel soon. Bond and Dollar rally amid falling Crude and precious metals.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been supported at 96.50 – 97.00 regions after falling for past 3 weeks. This week, we predict the fall will be halted and begin to consolidate amid buying recovery. The market trend is prone to recover at 100.00 benchmarks as price equilibrium. Hence, long traders may design setup for good entry based on expectation...

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OPEC Maintains Steady Supply as Crude Drifts Lower

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 1 December 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US economy expands with growing home sales, despite jobless claims rise. Japan enjoys healthy business profits as export has been increasing this year. Eurozone stays sluggish as central bank prepares to tee up another stimulus into the new year. Crude prices fall after OPEC meeting as daily production maintains.

The US economy expanded 3.9 percent annualized rates in Q2 after gaining 3.5 percent in prior 3 months ended June. Another report by Conference Board Inc says consumer confidence, which projects the outlook for coming 6 months, declined to 88.7 from previous revised 94.1 reading.

Weekly jobless claims by Americans increased 21,000 to 313,000 for the period ended 22 November, highest since early September, from previous week 292,000. The core orders for durable goods excluding aircrafts, fell 1.3 percent last...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 17 November 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices surged on Friday late session after U.S. reported the core retail sales and consumer sentiment to be both optimistic and above median forecast. Crude prices also pulled up for closing after sliding for past 4 days as traders await OPEC meeting to be held soon. G20 meeting started on the 8-9 weekend of November while traders observe the movement of currencies and Dollar policy from the recent quick rise.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices dipped to 3-year low at 73.20 before it closed at 75.80 for the weekend. The market sentiment is still prone to bearishness though short traders may be prepared to cover profits as they watch the coming OPEC meeting. In the event of up move trend from supply cut policy, we reckon the trend may gain momentum to 80.00...

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UK Housing Prices Recover while Eurozone Steers from Deflation

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 17 November 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US economy shows slight inflation with better consumer sentiment outlook. Japan stays vibrant in recovery track while Eurozone also pulls out of deflation doldrums. UK housing prices accelerate and consumers' confidence resurges.

The US wholesale inventories grew 0.3 percent in September after gaining 0.6 percent in prior month. Retail sales rose 0.3 percent in October. Core retail sales, excluding auto sales, climbed 0.3 percent after revised from minus 0.2 percent to par in September.

Weekly jobless claims among Americans recorded at 290,000 in the week ended 8 November. Job openings dropped to 4.74 million from 4.85 million in August.

Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index increased to 89.4 in October, making third straight months of positive rise above median forecast. Dollar strengthened on late Friday session after reacting growing...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 10 November 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude oil prices recover slightly ahead of OPEC meeting to be held in Vienna in 2 weeks time. Analysts expect OPEC countries will cut supply to stimulate price recovery despite OPEC officials say the world will need less crude oil in forthcoming 2 decades as shale production grows. Gold prices reversed up on Friday after US nonfarm payroll added 214,000 jobs that was below median forecast. Job market recovery has been slowing down though monthly unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 percent in October.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have dropped below 80.00 major supports and traded in cautious sentiment to 75.00 lows last week. Moving forward, we expect the market to trade sideways from 75.00 – 82.00 ranges until the OPEC meeting releases more clues for trend direction. However, the price trend of USDX ranging...

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European Central Bank Prepares to Add stimulus

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 10 November 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US unemployment improves but jobs growth slows down. Both European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) holds the benchmark rates unchanged amid stagnation. ECB President Draghi stresses readiness to add stimulus if necessary to stave off deflation. UK trade deficit widens with increasing oil imports.

The US Institute for Supply Management's factory index increased to 59 in October compared to 56.6 in prior month. Trade balance fell in September as trade gap expanded 7.6 percent to USD43 billion, the biggest since May, from revised USD40 billion in August.

Another separate data from Institute for Supply Management's services index rose to 57.1, exceeding the average for the first 6 months of the year, even though it was below the prior month's 58.6. Weekly jobless claims dropped 10,000 to 278,000 in...

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