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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 August 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices recovered from USD46.50 /barrel bottom on Friday and closed at USD48.70 /barrel. Besides falling stockpile in U.S. report, weakening Dollar Index topping off 94.00 is one reason for seeking hedge haven in risker assets. This week, we reckon the trend will be constricted from USD47 – USD50 /barrel without a breaking signal.

Gold

Gold prices fizzled out at USD1300 /oz on Friday and closed at USD1283 /oz area. Market should be temporarily resisted at USD1300 /oz as we predicted last week. We foresee the range will be prone to some profit-taking this week while strangled between from USD1270 – USD1300 /oz. On hind side, beware if the market pierces above USD1300 /oz due to unforeseen circumstances as tension in U.S. –North Korea may magnify.

Silver

Silver prices fell...

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Trump Winds Up the Advisory Council

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 21 August 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. President Trump closes the advisory council after leaders left one after another, especially after the his biased comments on supremacist rally in Charlottesville. Eurozone's GDP matches forecast at 0.6 percent. Terrorist attack claimed by Islamic State hits Barcelona in Spain.

The U.S. housing permit grew 1.22 million while housing starts rose 1.16 million in July, both under consensus. Jobless claims for the week ended 12 August was 232,000 and lower than previous week 244,000.

American industrial production including utilities and mines gained 0.2 percent in July and missed forecast. Another report on capacity utility in July was steady at 76.7 percent in-line with forecast.

Following the comments from President Trump on rally in Charlottesville on last weekend, more business leaders are leaving the council. Trump has announced on...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 August 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices reached USD50 /barrel region last week and fell to USD48 /barrel before market closed for weekend. The market is still trading in tight range while waiting for more fundamental news from OPEC members in persisting the supply cut. This week, we foresee the trend might head down to USD46 /barrel again due to aggressive tension on Guam islands. Range is still toppish with resistance shadowing over USD50 /barrel.

Gold

Gold prices climbed to 9-week high on Friday due to safe haven pursued by global investors. The trend may continue to test the previous resistance into USD1300 /oz in early this week. However, correction from profit-taking may drive the prices down to USD1270 /oz with bargain-hunting expected. Hence, tight range is reckoned from USD1270 – USD1300 /oz...

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Dispute Between U.S. and North Korea Heats Up

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 14 August 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy shows sluggish inflation. China keeps up the growing pace with strong trade surplus. U.K. manufacturing and trade deficit worsen after BREXIT begun.

The U.S. producer prices contracted at minus 0.1 percent in in July and at lowest in past 5 months. Excluding food and energy, core prices declined at 9-month lowest record with minus 0.1 percent.

Another report on U.S. weekly claims on jobless benefits at 244,000 ended 5 August. Consumer prices and core prices both rose 0.1 percent in July and below forecast.

Global stock markets are in tension after North Korea threatened to launch missile attack on military base situated in Guam islands. Trump's Government expresses fury and rebukes in serious warning of retaliation.

China's consumer prices rose 1.4 percent in July on year and...

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American Payroll Climbs Higher than Forecast

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 7 Aug 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy reveals slight inflation on growth after home sales risen and firm payroll are consolidating. China maintains in good growing pace. Bank of England remains policy unchanged but expect 2 rate hikes in the coming 3 years.

The U.S. pending home sales rose 1.5 percent in June and jumped from minus 0.7 percent revised in May. Institute of Supply Management reports the manufacturing index for July grew to 56.3 and maintained in growth pace. Another separate report from the same source on services index grew to 54.7 in good rhythm.

American personal spending rose 0.1 percent in June and matched forecast, after May was revised at 0.2 percent growth. Jobless claims dropped slightly to 240,000 in the week ended 29 July from previous week 245,000.

Factory...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 7 August 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been holding firm above USD48 /barrel while trend is still threading sideways below USD51 /barrel. Technically, we presume the range will be constricted within these aforementioned levels until the new directional trend takes charge beyond. No clue for making a guess on the next headway until we hear more affirmative promise from OPEC members.

Gold

Gold prices topped off USD1274 /oz last week amid profit-taking activity. The trend is supported at USD1245 /oz that is confluent to EMA200 line. Hence, we foresee a sideways trend will occur this week within the aforementioned range especially Dollar may trade in mild recovery. Investors should prepare to pick bottom upon this coming short-term recovery for a potential back-end rise in yellow metal.

Silver

Silver prices dipped on Friday after the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 31 July 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have crossed above USD48 /barrel that acts confluent to EMA200 line. This week, the trend may encounter profit-taking at USD50 /barrel region while drawdown might occur at USD46 /barrel. Range is still largely moving from USD46 – USD50 /barrel unless we could see the rise above the aforementioned resistance and drive into a new directional headway.

Gold

Gold prices broke above USD1260 /oz and maintained good momentum before weekend. This week, we reckon the bulls may reach up to USD1280 /oz before liquidation emerges. Downside support will rise from USD1250 /oz in case of correction. In our opinion, the weakening of Dollar will give a push in yellow metal but profit-takers will still ambush on topside before non-farm payroll on coming Friday.

Silver

Silver prices reached our predicted target at...

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American Housing Sale Slows Down in Demand

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 31 July 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing sales stay murky while core orders climbs at slower pace. Federal Reserve may trim balance sheet faster before year-end. Japan traps in low inflation. Germany charts historical record in business climate survey.

The U.S. existing home sales grew 5.52 million in June and lowest in 4 months record. The U.S. Conference Board for consumer confidence jumps to 121.1 in July and higher than revised 117.3 in June.

Another separate report on new home sales grew 610,000 in June and almost flat from previous month. Crude inventories reduced by 7.2 million in previous week and lifted the demand before weekend.

The U.S. jobless claims for the week ended 22 July steadied at 244,000 in line with forecast. Core durable goods, excluding transportation equipment, rose 0.2...

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European Central Bank May Begin Tapering in September

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 24 July 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. reveals growth in housing construction while jobless claims fall. China maintains steady growth in Q2 and Yuan advances. European Central Bank holds monetary policy unchanged and may begin tapering in September.

The U.S. housing permit for June grew 1.25 million while housing permit also rose by 1.22 million, both above forecast and highest in past 3 months’ record.

American weekly claims for jobless benefits ended 15 July dropped to 9-month low at 233,000 with improvement. Philadelphia manufacturing index unexpectedly declines to 19.5 index in July, at 8-month lowest record.

China expanded 6.9 percent in the Q2 ended June and growth remains consistent as in Q1. Industrial production including mines and utilities rose 7.6 percent on year basis in June and highest in past 3 months record....

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 24 July 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices topped off USD47.50 /barrel last week and poised to stand around USD45.00 /barrel on Friday. Negative vibes on OPEC’s increasing supply will suppress on demand this week and likely to swing the trend from USD45 – USD47.50 /barrel. However, the consensus of breaking beneath USD45 /barrel will drive the prices lower at USD43 /barrel if there is no better news to stimulate market buyers.

Gold

Gold prices settled at USD1254 /oz on Friday with a push before closing. This week, we predict the uptrend will be countered by profit-taking at USD1260 /oz and begin for drawdown. Range is expected to move from USD1240 – USD1260 /oz with probability to see a dip after the trend fizzles out. We foresee the trend will consolidate for a while before going higher...

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