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MSCI Delays in Adding China A-Share

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 13 June 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S retails sales rise amid steady jobs report. China surges in trade balance but slows in producer factory gate prices that triggers speculation for more imminent stimulus. U.K. economy advances in steady pace amid domestic austerity measures.

The U.S. retail sales gained 1.2 percent in May and better than revised 0.2 percent gains in April. Excluding autos, core retail sales was up 1.0 percent after rising 0.1 percent in previous month. Jobless claims were reported at 279,000 in the week ended 6 June and almost unchanged from prior week.

The U.S. producer prices rose 0.5 percent in May and put credit tightening on higher alert, after the data showed 0.4 percent decline in April. Preliminary estimate on consumer sentiment by University of Michigan reports higher at 94.6 for the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 13 June 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dollar has been recovering last week but still unable to illustrate real bullish strength. The delay action of MSCI in adding China A-shares into MSCI Emerging Market Index has put the yellow metal on hold with other Yuan denominated commodities. Dollar trend has weakened mildly against ASEAN currencies and lifted the Crude demand on some interest. Weekly Crude inventories have been cut by 6.8 million in prior week and helps to support Crude prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices revisited the 61.81 highs over past 4 weeks and settled neat 60.00 for weekend. Market is prone to make marginal high but should be swift to climb in coming week. Otherwise staying too many days at this top formation may lose steam easily. This week, we reckon closing above 62.00 resistances will ascend to...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 1 Jun 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold fell below 1200.00 benchmarks last week again as Dollar strengthened. Yellow metal is seen to be supported at 1180.00 grounds despite Dollar rise as investors still favor it as safe haven. Crude prices hovers at 60.00 regions as Crude inventories have been reduced by 2.8 million barrels in the week ended 23 May. Saudi Arabia has maintained record production in May as top Crude producer among OPEC countries, output of 10.25 million barrels daily.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices recovered above 60.00 benchmarks on Friday after Saudi Arabia announced record production in the month of May. Market investors perceived as strong demand rising soon to counter the output. This week, we foresee the trend may climb higher to 65.00 targets if the bulls can conquer immediate 62.00 resistances. Downside support remains at...

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The U.S. Government Cuts Estimate for Q1 Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 1 June 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. orders for durable goods and housing data are stronger, but government still cuts estimate gains in Q1 growth due to enlarging trade deficits. Japan's inflation struggles to meet policymaker's preset target at 2.0 percent though consumer spending increases. U.K. maintains pace of growth in Q1.

The U.S. Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 95.4 in May. April's reading was revised lower to 94.3 from 95.2. Orders for core durable goods, excluding transportation and equipment, rose 0.5 percent in April after the previous month was revised higher to 0.3 percent gains. Another separate report on new homes sales climbed by 517,000 in April.

American weekly claims for state unemployment benefits rose 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 282,000 for the week ended May 23, remaining below 300,000 levels for...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 25 May 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold traded in slight bearish sentiment last week due to rising Dollar. Crude prices have been holding at 60.00 regions but may be prone to fall in coming week amid tension in Middle East. Violence in Middle East has increased worries of supply in oil after one suicide bomber blew up himself in Shi'ite mosque in Eastern Saudi Arabia on last Friday.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been moving in tight range from 57.00 – 62.00 regions. This week, it will be interesting to observe the market trend as either direction is possible. The trend may pierce above 62.00 resistances and test 64.00 areas before the bulls fizzle out. However, winding down below 57.00 supports will land at 54.00 as our secondary supports.

Gold

Gold prices slid from 1232.00 highs last week and...

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Bank of Japan Remains Policy Unchanged

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 25 May 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. inflation edges higher and trigger speculation of rate hike around coming year-end. Policymakers express of recovery bog down as bond yield rises. Japan maintains monetary unchanged amid high expectation of stimulus by market traders. U.K. inflation falls below zero benchmark for the first time in 55 years and marks slowdown in economic recession.

The U.S. building permit gained 1.14 million in April at annualized rates and higher than prior month 1.04 million growth. Housing starts also rose 1.14 million from March and above expectation. Another report reveals the existing home sales rose 5.04 million annualized rates in April and dropped from previous month 5.21 million annual pace.

Weekly jobless claims for the week ended 16 May went up to 274,000 against 264,000 in previous data. American consumer prices...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 18 May 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Continual fall in Dollar Index (USDX) has lent support to Gold and Crude prices last week. Yellow metal broke above 1200.00 resistances and settled at 1224.00 regions for the weekend. Crude prices is hovering at 60.00 regions as weekly Crude inventories for previous week have bene cut down by 2.2 million barrels. General commodity prices and Dow Jones benchmarks are holding in firm sentiment after market traders speculated rate hike may be delayed due to lower producer prices released in US economy.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices receded below 60.00 benchmarks for the weekend. Market is strongly resisted at 62.50 levels while we reckon support will rise at 55.00 regions. Technically, we predict the trend will thread sideways inside this range for time being until we hear new fundamental influences from Middle...

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Bank of England Cuts Growth Forecast

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 18 May 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The US economy shows sign of continual growth in workforce with dropping claims. Producer prices still stays weak in tandem with stagnated retail sales that interpret a possible delay in rate hike by policymakers. Eurozone stays flat while UK policymakers also cut down in their forecast for annual growth.

The US small business confidence increased in April. National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.7 points to 96.9 from previous month 95.2.

American retail sales remained unchanged in April as households cut back on spending in purchasing large items. March data has been revised higher to 1.1 percent gains. Excluding automobiles, core retail sales climbed 0.1 percent and below forecast.

The US Labor Department says import prices fell 0.3 percent last month after...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 11 May 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The yellow metal has not moved much throughout last week. Prices failed to break above 1200.00 resistances as traders still favor the input of fund into Equity markets. WTI Crude prices begin to soften after hitting above 61.00 levels for completing the upward reversal correction. On Friday, American payroll showed higher job creations and triggered resurgent demand into Dow Jones markets. Asia may continue the bullish sentiment in early part of coming week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude might have completed the upward correction at recent 62.50 highs as market recedes below 60.00 levels again. This week, we predict the market will continue to be capped below 61.00 resistances and prone to take a dive for price unwinding. Target is aimed at 56.00 levels if long traders begin to take profit. Pay...

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Conservatives Secures Winning in British Election

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 11 May 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The US trade deficits surge again on increasing imports. Payrolls rise and reach the expectation that lifts the Dow Jones markets in optimism. Greek moves in slow progressives for negotiating bailout program with European Union and may fail the repayment deadline in early next week. Focus has been put in Britain election with fruitful result in landslide victory for Conservatives Party.

The US Commerce Department reports the factory orders increased 2.1 percent in March, largest gains in past 8 months, after a revised 0.1 percent dip in February. Another report on trade deficits surged to its highest at 6-1/2 year record after imports increased. The Commerce department says the trade deficits jumped 43.1 percent to USD51.4 billion, the largest since October 2008, after the shortfall was revised at...

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