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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 24 Feb 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The US policymakers claim readiness to hike interest rates if the unemployment falls below 6.5 percent. On the other hand, Bank of England (BOE) governors remain committed to low interest rates for seeing through the full recovery as budget surplus still rose at small pace in January. Last week, Japan's policymakers said they will boost the lending program and suppress low interest as investors are concerned of rising sales tax in April. Commodity prices in Gold and Crude stayed firm through whole week amid small corrective prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed at 102.20 after falling from 103.30 highs last week. This week, the market could be turning down for technical correction as well if USDX begins to move higher above 80.50 levels. The weekly Crude inventory reported last week was below expectation at...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 17 Feb 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The US Dow Jones benchmarks rallied and closed at 16,154.00 levels on Friday after FED's chairman Janet Yellen reiterated in early last week on maintaining the policy of scaling-back in monthly stimulus. Gold and Silver recovered to 14-week highs on weekend closing prices. On Friday morning, the consumer-inflation reported in China at 2.5 percent above median forecast further pushed the yellow metal as demand widened. Crude prices also escalated above 100.00 benchmarks upon lower Dollar Index.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices hung at 100.00 regions after topping the 101.38 highs last week. The increased inventory at 3.3 million barrels on previous week report has helped to cap the Crude prices below 101.00 levels despite dropping USD Index (USDX). This week, we reckon the market will be resisted at 101.40 tops while declining may be more...

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DJIA Recovers Above 16,000 Benchmarks

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 17 February 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US budget deficit narrows while China extends growth in overseas shipment and consumer inflation. Yellen also stresses on maintaining scale-back policy that puts some demands in Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stocks while precious metals rally. The Eurozone economy gains and eases the statement by central bank President Draghi who previously mentioned of countering low inflation.

The US budget deficit for January was reported at USD10.4 billion. Total outlays was narrowed down by 37 percent from October through January, recording a shortfall of USD184 billion compared with a USD290.4 billion shortfall from the same period last year.

Another report on US retailer sales slid in January by the most since June 2012, dropping 0.4 percent after slid 0.1 percent in December. Jobless claims increased by 8,000 to 339,000 in the week ended...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 10 Feb 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The US non-farm payroll rose 113,000 in January and fell below median forecast for a second month. The worries of hitting debt ceiling returns to American Congress as government may face out-budget again at end February. Policymakers stress tapering program will persevere despite Dow Jones markets might fall further. Crude oil supplies rose 400,000 barrels in previous week and much lesser than the forecast, driving up the prices to 100.00 benchmarks.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices turned into bullish sentiment last week as inventories reduced unexpectedly. The market has been hovering at 98.00 regions for many days but shot up to 100.00 benchmarks on Friday before settling at 99.80 levels. This week, we reckon selling pressure will emerge at 100.70 – 101.00 areas in case of continual uptrend. The support will firm up at 98.00...

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FED Will Continue Tapering in Coming Months

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 10 February 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US non-farm payroll declines for a second month while weekly jobless claims steadies. The FED officials reiterate continual program in tapering stimulus despite stocks may fall further. European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) both remain the benchmark rates unchanged in the meeting but will continue to monitor inflation check.

The US Institute for Supply Management reports the monthly service index went up to 54 from 53 in December. FED Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart comments policymakers may revise their forward guidance to refrain the interest rates from rising in near future.

Weekly jobless claims among American citizens dropped 20,000 to 331,000 in the period ended 1 February. Trade deficit narrowed down 12 percent to USD38.7 billion in December. Dow Jones benchmarks fell in mid last week amid fear...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 3 Feb 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The US Dollar Index rose last week and closed higher at 81.25 on Friday. DJIA settled at minus 149 points for the weekend after tapering of second straight month by USD10 billion was announced in FOMC meeting. China also suffers at 6-month low record for its manufacturing PMI at 50.5 that might further wane market confidence in coming week. Crude oil inventories on weekly basis reported by EIA were higher at 6.4 million barrels for the week ended 25 January. Gold and Crude oil are expected to trade lower in near future.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices failed to stand above the EMA200 line at 97.80 on day-chart. The market is highly prone to fall in coming week as we believe selling pressure will build up at 98.00 areas. Technically, the market might drive down...

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China’s Manufacturing Declines Amid US Tapering

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 3 February 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US housing demand remains wobbly as growth slows down. FED announces tapering of another USD10 billion and triggers sell-off in global equity markets. China's manufacturing PMI declines and puts pressure on Asia asset bubbles as slowdown deepens. However, UK housing prices pick up in tandem with GDP gains.

The US new home sales dropped 7 percent to 414,000 annualized pace in December and below median forecast. Another separate report on orders for durable goods was unexpectedly down 4.3 percent. Consumer confidence improved in January at 80.7 compared to prior month revised 77.5.

The American pending home sales slumped 8.7 percent after a revised 0.3 percent drop in November. Weekly jobless claims climbed by 19,000 to 348,000 as of 25 January and created highest number since last December.

The US growth for Q4 rose...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 27 Jan 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The U.S. Dollar Index plunged last week from 81.388 tops and closed at 80.458 on Friday. Short-term assets in U.S. markets like equities and currencies slid while Treasuries strengthened. Gold prices were lifted due to flight of fund movement into commodities. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts global growth at 3.8 percent this year as led by the expansion in U.S. and U.K. economic recovery.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been recovering from 93.50 lows but resisted at 98.00 areas due to profit-taking. Technically, the market bulls are also barred at 98.00 levels by EMA200 line as strong resistance. This week, we foresee the market will thread from 95.00 – 98.00 regions as sideways consolidation. Beware of breaking above 98.00 resistances as market may try for 99.50 targets if the U.S. Dollar Index continues...

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Dow Plunges as US Treasuries Rise

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 27 January 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US Treasuries rise as yields drop, causing Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to plunge 318 points. International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the growth in US and UK will accelerate in 2014 and lead global recovery. The US existing home sales rise while Eurozone manufacturing improves. The UK sees an improvement in unemployment decline and budget deficit narrows.

The US existing home sales rose in December for the first time in past 5 months as purchase was up 1 percent to a 4.87 million annual pace. Jobless claims gained 1,000 to 326,000 in the period ended 18 January, held at near 6-week low levels.

The US Treasuries rose steadily last week while 10-year bond yield closed lower at 2.72 percent on Friday, at 8-week low. The declines in emerging-markets equities spurred demand for...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 20 Jan 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The US Dollar has been rising throughout last week and settled at 81.18 levels for the weekend. The US economic inflation has begun to pave way for recovery as producer prices and consumer prices rose 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent respectively, both at highest over prior 3 months period. Gold prices closed firm on Friday amid short-covering and Crude prices stayed firm amid strong buying interest.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices drove higher towards last weekend after inventories continued to slide 7.7 million barrels in the week ended 11 January. Market advanced to 2-week high despite Dollar gained in rising value. This week, we reckon the trend will meet some resistance at 95.00 regions while support tends to emerge at 93.00 levels. Thus, sideways consolidation may occur in early week but the probability of climbing...

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