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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 28 September 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Among all commodities that subsided last week, Gold recovered amid short-covering and weaker sentiment in global stocks. Dollar Index actually traded firmer from 95.00 to above 96.00 before weekend. Crude prices traded in small range around 45.00 regions without clue to directional trend. The U.S. Crude inventories slid 1.9 million barrels in the week ended 19 September has helped to support Crude demand.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been hovering largely from 44.00 – 47.00 ranges in stagnation. The market sentiment is affected by Dollar strength, output from oil producing countries and global slowdown. This week, we reckon the market trend may climb higher to 50.00 targets since it has been trapped in low volatility for past 4 weeks. Breaking below 44.00 for settlement needs to abandon long-view.

Gold

Gold prices...

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The UK Increases in Public Borrowing

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 28 September 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S existing homes decline while new homes sales surges to 7-year high. FED Yellen reiterates of rate hike around year-end seasons. Japan slides in stagnated inflation and trigger wider domestic demand for stimulus. Prime Minister confirms the new goals to be rolled out soon. U.K. increases in public borrowing and may be signal of slowdown.

The U.S. existing homes sales rose 5.31 million in August and below median forecast, making first decline in past 4 months. Core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, remained unchanged in August after rose 0.4 percent in July.

Unemployment claims stayed at 267,000 for the week ended 19 September and held steady for past 3 weeks below 280,000 claims. New home sales rose 552,000 in August making 7-year high record, after the previous month was...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 September 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dollar Index has been trading sideways while U.S. Federal Reserve confirms in holding rates unchanged. Market analysts and traders interpret not much recovery in U.S. economy to initiate credit tightening. Stock sentiments edge into sluggish pace and Crude demand wobbles. However, precious metals surged last week due to uncertainty in U.S. interest rates and currency fluctuation.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded in small sideways around 45.00 regions while waiting for more fundamental news. From technical outlook, we still predict the range is trapped inside 42.00 – 50.00 ranges with no certain clue of confirmed direction. Crude producing countries in Middle East have consistently reiterated in their regular production that keeps Crude below 50.00 levels. However, the U.S. Crude inventory was reported at minus 2.1 million barrels last week to support the prices.

Gold

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The U.S. FED Holds Rates Unchanged Again

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 21 September 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. traps in slow growth amid sluggish consumer demand. Global focus has been eyeing on central bank meeting held last week but FED announced unchanged in rates direction. Japan also holds on to same monetary policy despite Yen has stalled devaluing for months. European economy recedes on the whole with Germany and U.K. pacing down.

The U.S. retail sales grew 0.2 percent in August and lower than 0.7 percent gains in July. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, gained 0.1 percent after receded from revised 0.6 percent in prior month.

Another report on U.S. industrial production, which includes mining and utilities, dropped 0.4 percent in August, after a 0.9 percent rise in July. Building permits in August grew 1.17 million and higher than revised 1.13 million in July.

American jobless...

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Global Markets Analysis – 16 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong

16.09.2015 周三 油脂类商品走势秃废;短线多单离场规避风险

美盘黄豆有上攻欲望,可惜美盘豆油12月合约不予配合,依旧是阴阳K线的短线横盘状态,盘中的疲软走势特为明显,没有丝毫的上行动能,在此状况下,后市豆油短线走势恐仍将疲软。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,前期一直抵抗性的反弹,但在美盘豆油疲软走势影响下,期价上涨幅度不大,弱势反弹迹象逐步明显起来,在美盘的疲软拖累下,不排除本波的反弹预期终将以失败告终的可能,期价再次走软的可能性越来越强烈。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在周一长阳上涨之后,昨日冲高回落盘中短线多头获利盘的涌出令期价下跌。今天9月16日周三为马来西亚成立日,因假期而停盘。在昨日建议部分短线多单逢高离场兑现获利筹码后,剩余部分多单待马盘开盘后若期价不能收复周二的中阴K线,则短线剩余多单可全部逢高离场入袋为安。

小结:美盘豆油短线走势秃废,盘中做多人气始终不能凝聚,横盘震荡时间越久不排除期价再次出现下坠的可能。因此短线角度而言,内盘追随性下挫与马盘冲高回落的下跌均有可能使期价重心下移。个人前期的反弹观点从今天开始转为谨慎态度,后市短线油脂商品期价走低的概率在逐步增大。观点认为中长线多单谨慎持有。内盘与马盘短线激进操作者多单考虑逢高兑现全部平仓离场,是否反手短空(锁仓中长线多单的账面损失),建议再多观察美盘豆油一两日,同时待马盘开盘后的表现 ,再做出具体决定。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine...

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Bank of England Holds Rate Unchanged

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 14 September 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. jobless claims stay consistent amid mild increment in consumer demands. Japan slows down in machinery orders and analysts expect more stimuli to propel growth. Bank of England holds rate unchanged but warns of global stagnated economy. Investors keep alert for U.S. FOMC meeting in coming week.

The U.S. weekly claims for jobless benefits stayed consistent at 275,000 in the week ended 5 September. Wholesale inventories dropped 0.1 percent in July and picked up by more demands, while compared to higher reading at revised 0.7 percent gains during June.

American producer prices remained unchanged in August versus an expected decline of 0.1 percent. Core prices rose 0.3 percent after the impact of avian flu virus outbreak since early this year still lingers. Investors remain alert for the FED meeting...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 September 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

USDX weakened slightly last week ahead of U.S. FOMC meeting in coming week. Market analysts and traders still debate on rate hike issue though most expect huge movements may occur upon the decision of policymakers. Gold prices dipped briefly below 1100.00 levels on Friday and settled at 1107.00 areas. Crude prices lifted firm at 45.00 regions with countering forces in market. The U.S. Crude inventories slid to 2.6 million barrels in the week ended 5 September after it was reported at 4.7 million barrels in prior week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crudes have been hovering at 45.00 regions for many days. There is no clue for projecting the direction as market is opened to move in either trend at 40.00 levels or 50.00 levels. Fundamentally, we reckon the Dollar trend as directed by the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 31 August 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold declined after hitting a monthly high record at 1170.0 levels last week. USDX swung down to 92.50 but quickly recovered after last Monday's slide and lured investors to return to greenback safe haven. Crude prices resurged back to past 2 weeks' high and began short-covering while it closed at 45.00 regions on Friday.

Crude Oil

WTI Crudes shot up from 6 years' low record 37.75 and climbed to 45.00 closing before weekend. This week, we reckon the trend has met temporary resistance at 45.00 levels and will begin to swing sideways from 40.00 – 45.00 regions. However, beware of large buying interest moving into market that may push the trend up to test 50.00 levels as our next higher resistances.

Gold

Gold prices hit 1114.0 low regions last week after falling from 1170.0...

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Global Stock Indexes Whipsaw in Volatility

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 31 August 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy shows recovery in housing market while consumer confidence jumps in optimism. Orders for core durable goods improved on monthly basis and jobless claims reduce. Japan stagnates in recovery though unemployment declines. U.K. advances in mortgage approvals for housing loans while business investment climbs.

The U.S. new home sales performed better in July at 507,000 compared to 481,000 revised in June. The Conference Board's consumer confidence surprised market by jumping to 101.5, best record since August 2007, after it showed 91.0 in July.

American orders for durable goods, made to last for more than 3 years, rose 2.0 percent in July after it gained at revised 4.1 percent in previous month. Orders for core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, climb 0.6 percent and doubled the expectation.

Weekly jobless...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 24 August 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices ran up higher last week following the Chinese Yuan devaluation. Fund flight out of global equities and rush into yellow metal and sovereign Bonds. Crude prices remain stagnate at low demands as weekly Crude inventories increased 2.6 million barrels in the week ended 15 August. USDX has traded lower to 94.80 before weekend as fear of U.S. rate hike eases.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices declined to 6-1/2 year low and closed at 40.30 for the weekend. Market analysts fear the progressive low prices in energies at this low demand will trigger global recession in coming months. Technically, we do not see any support until it goes down to 34.00 in confluent with the low created in February 2009. In case of upward reversal, the trend will likely to reach up...

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