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Bernanke Confirms Stimulus Continuity

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 23 September 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke surprises the market by reinforcing his speech to maintain the monthly USD85 Billion in bond-purchase program. Europe stays in dormant mode as Germany wades into national Election. Britain moves in steadfast economic pace despite analysts anticipate correction of Pound may begin soon.

The U.S. consumer-price increased 0.1 percent in august. The data was below forecast and least in 3 months after July gained 0.2 percent. Claims for jobless benefits climbed 15,000 to 309,000 in the week ended 14 September, from a revised 294,000 in the prior period.

Another separate report on U.S. current-account deficit narrowed in the second quarter to the lowest in almost 4 years. The economists believe the export rise has helped to shrink the gap by 5.7 percent to USD98.9 billion in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 Sep 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. Federal Reserve frustrated the market after mid last week with contradictory statement. Chairman Bernanke reinforced on Thursday after FOMC meeting that policymakers will not taper stimulus from the monthly USD85 Billion bond-purchase program. On Friday, the FED Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard cited that policymakers may trim some bond buying in October. Global stocks and majority commodities surged after Bernanke’s statement but plunged on late Friday’s session. Dow Jones fell 185 points at the weekend closing bell and Gold plunged about USD40 ranges.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed lower on weekly basis at 104.75 due to Bullard’s statement on Friday. The market has been sliding after mid-week due to increasing supply in Libya and ease of war-tension in Syria. This week, we foresee the trend may head down lower to 102.00 regions should the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 16 Sep 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The Dow Jones and global stocks retuned to firm sentiment last week as war drums toned down. Syria agreed to submit the chemical weapons to U.N. inspectors as Russia proposed in the meeting with U.S. President Obama. American jobless claims fell again to 292,000 for the week ended 7 September and triggered new expectation of tapering stimulus in September. Gold prices fell towards weekend while Crude softened as warfare has been waning.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading in mid-range between 106.00 – 111.00 regions. Market has been softening last week as the calling for air strikes against Syria waned. This week, we predict the immediate resistance will suppress at 109.00 and the bear might drive the market lower at 105.50 – 106.00 areas. Breaking above 109.00 resistances will be countered by another higher resistance at 111.00 levels....

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Pound Higher Amid Growing Housing Demand

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 16 September 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. stocks trade firmer amid tune-down of drum beat for Syria war. Job markets continue to strengthen in contracting claims and rekindle fear of tapering in September month. London data consolidates on housing demands and construction. Pound moves higher in optimism amid U.K. economic recovery.

The U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.1 percent in July. Another report on budget deficits narrowed to USD147.9 billion in August, compared with USD190.5 billion gap from a year ago. So far, the accumulated deficits for 11 months that ends 30 September through this fiscal year has charted USD755.3 billion, the narrowest for last 5 years.

American jobless claims fell by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended 7 September, returning fear of tapering stimulus in this month. This week, traders will be watching the FOMC meeting for...

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American Payroll Wanes Tapering Stimulus

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 9 September 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. payroll rises lesser than expectation and wanes the forecast for withdrawing stimulus. The Institute of Supply Management on manufacturing and service index indicate steady growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) keep their key interest rates unchanged. Syrian war remains as major concern in market sentiment as traders await the final decision of President Obama.

The U.S. market sentiment is currently influenced by the Syrian warfare as traders observe the ongoing fundamental news. The missile test carried out in Mediterranean Sea on last Monday by Israel shattered the traders’ confidence and mistook for the declaration of war. However, President Obama surprised the media by saying he wished to seek opinion of U.S. Congress for taking such military actions against Syria. Global stock markets and commodities have...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 9 September 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. President Obama is still seeking the opinions of Congress for declaring war against Syria while most members in United Nations do not openly support the military action. Gold prices swung throughout last week due to uncertain market sentiment. The U.S. non-farm payroll rose 169,000 in August with unemployment dropped to 7.3 percent. Expectation of tapering wanes among traders as overall recovery still behaves in passive sentiment. Crude prices traded in small correction but still remained high towards weekend at 110.00 regions.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices jumped from 105.53 lows throughout the week and recovered to 110.00 areas towards the weekend. The market remains sensitive to Syria war as traders observe the final decision of President Obama. This week, we reckon the market will be supported at 107.00 with much buying interest unless the eradication of fear in...

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Fear in Syrian War Dampens Stocks

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 2 September 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. is deciding to lead warfare into Syria that caused sell-off in stock markets. Investors remain dormant to Dollar strength while observing the decision of United Nations. Japan’s inflation shows improvement as Abe government pulls the recession out from 2-decade recession. Britain celebrates recovery in housing markets after austerity measure has taken effects.

The U.S. order for durable goods fell 7.3 percent in July, making the first drop in past 4 months. The Conference Board’s index of sentiment shows consumer confidence advanced to 81.5 in July from a revised 81 the prior month that was stronger than median forecast.

The growth for Q2 measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicated 2.5 percent gains at annualized rate, up from an initial estimate of 1.7 percent. Jobless claims in the week ended 24 August...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 2 September 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. President Obama is persuading the United Nations to launch strike against Syria for using chemical weapons. Stock markets knee jerked on global basis as Crude prices rose to 2-year high records in early last week. The U.S. economy is facing mixed sentiment amid steady job recovery as weekly claims declined to 331,000 ended 24 August. Another report showed GDP growth for Q2 marked 2.5 percent annualized gains. Gold prices reached 1433.00 highs before closing at 1390.00 regions for the weekend.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices reached 2-year record at 112.00 regions last week before settling down at 108.00 levels for the weekend. The market is trading in neutral zone now as it waits for fundamental news in coming week. A gradual drawdown will lead the market back to 105.00 supports but any unexpected news may trigger new buying...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 26 August 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The annual Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming held by U.S. FED policymakers began last Friday while market investors still wait patiently for the eventual decision of forthcoming new monetary policies. A research study presented in the meeting showed that the huge bond-buying program has actually been less potent than what the policymakers thought. As tapering of stimulus still looms market, the U.S. bond yield dropped on Friday to 25.81 percent at closing session. However, plunge in new home sales before the weekend triggered wide speculation of maintaining stimulus policy that pushed up Gold prices.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices reversed from 103.50 bottoms last week and hovered at 106.50 levels till weekend close. The market is loitering sideways inside the range from 103.00 – 108.50 regions without clear directional trend. The chemical warfare in Syria and Egypt’s civil unrest has...

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Jackson Hole Meeting Alerts Market

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 26 August 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve has begun its 3-day annual meeting in Jackson Hole on last Friday. Investors are still waiting to see the snowball effects on the eventual outcome of new policy while there will be another round of debate in U.S. Congress in September on raising the national debt limits. Europe economy continues to move out of recession as a whole vehicle led by Germany and U.K. recovery.

The U.S. weekly jobless claims ended on 17 August rose 13,000 to 336,000, matching the median forecast. The Conference Board’s of leading indicators gained 0.6 percent in July while pushed up by better job markets and housing recovery.

The American existing home sales advanced 6.5 percent in July to a 5.39 million at annual rate, making second highest level in 6-year record. However, new...

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