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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 18 January 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold traded in mild bullishness last week as same direction in U.S. Dollar index. WTI Crude oil declined as global supply glut continues to threaten demand. Crude prices closed below USD30 /barrel on Friday while hitting 12-year low record. Global stock prices are expected to be flamboyant in coming week as Crude attracts global attention. Dollar index will become main indicator to lead inverse trend to energies.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices broke below the low record in 2009 and stretched down to meet the bottoms of 2004 below USD30 levels. By analysis, we project a possibility to hit 26.00 lows before bargain-hunting emerges. This week, we are uncertain if the bears will descend to our aforementioned target then rebound, or recover first for another decline to be made later. Range for this...

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Global Stock Markets Down in Early January

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 11 January 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management reports manufacturing index in December fell to 48.2 and lower than forecast. Construction spending declined 0.4 percent after gained 0.3 percent gains in November.

A second report released by Institute for Supply Managementon services index grew 55.3 in December and stayed strong above expansion limit 50.0 levels. Trade deficits shrank to USD42.4 billion in November and improved from USD44.6 billion in prior month.

The U.S. unemployment claims dropped to 277,000 in the week ended 2 January, down from 287,000 in previous week probably due to year-end seasons.

The U.S. non-farm payroll in December rose to 292,000 in December unexpectedly and above the forecast. Unemployment rate stays at 5.0 percent. Another report on wholesale inventories dropped 0.3 percent and better the median forecast, signaling rising...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 11 January 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dollar Index (USDX) traded in sideways by making a pull-up last week before it closed lower. Precious metals climbed higher while Crude dipped at low edge. Global supply glut has been making the global economy gloomy as first week of the New Year caused a panic sell-off in global stocks. Investors are putting blame for China for possible hard landing in shrinking manufacturing and devaluing Yuan.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been lying low and dipped below 33.00 for weekend. The threat of global oil glut and slowdown in economic demand have put lid on oil prices. We foresee more dip will unfold in January before genuine short-covering arises in market. This week, we predict resistance will emerge at 35.00 levels while 30.00 benchmarks seem vulnerable to be tested. If market dips...

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American Home Market Slows in Recovery

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 28 December 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The markets trades in quiet sentiment ahead of long holiday seasons. American homes sales expand in slower rate. Japan slows in consumer spending while unemployment rises. European market stays in low volatility due to Christmas seasons.

The U.S. existing home sales grew 4.76 million in November and slumped from revised 5.32 million in previous month, making worst growth in 9 months record. Final GDP for Q3 expanded 2.0 percent and better than expected.

American new home sales grew 490,000 in November and lagged below 500,000 benchmarks for third month. Core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, slid 0.1 percent after it grew 0.5 percent in October.

On separate report, the U.S. jobless claims for the week ended 19 December was down to 267,000, lowest in 4 weeks. Dow Jones benchmarks traded...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 28 December 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The metals and energy markets traded in thin volatility last week as both made mild recovery before year-end. Dollar Index trades slightly lower while lending strength to lift the commodity prices. Pay attention to FCPO prices in Bursa market as palm prices might climb higher in coming weeks due to weakening Ringgit. The U.S. Crude inventory was cut by 5.9 million barrels last week and helped to recover the Crude demand.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices dipped below 35.00 levels last week and panicked market traders. It closed higher at 38.00 regions after Dollar Index slid. This week, we forecast the trend will be supported at 36.00 and may ascend slightly to 40.00 benchmarks. Expect range bound trading with low liquidity in market for this week!

Gold

Gold prices settled at 1074.00 regions before...

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Bank of Japan Extends Maturity in Bond Purchase

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 21 December 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. raises FED fund rates after keeping it near to zero for 7 years. Bank of Japan maintains monetary policy but extends the maturity of Bond purchase. Germany fares better in economic sentiment while U.K. unemployment slides to its 7-year low record.

The U.S. consumer prices stayed at par in November after expanded 0.2 percent in October. Core prices, excluding fresh food and energy, rose 0.2 percent as forecast. Philadelphia manufacturing index slides to minus 5.9 and worst in 3 months, from gaining 1.9 in November.

American building permits rose 1.29 million in November and highest in 5 months records. Housing starts rose 1.17 million after it gained 1.06 million in October. Jobless claims for the week ended 12 December dropped to 271,000 from 5-month high.

In last week...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 December 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The U.S. Federal Reserve hikes rate at 0.25 – 0.50 percent after many months of delay. Gold prices fell after reacting to the news on Thursday and recovered before weekend as Dollar Index receded. Crude prices continues to stay sluggish as global supply glut threats with bearish sentiment. Stock market trends are dovish but expected to hold until year-end due to little activity in long holiday seasons.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been very weak and hovering at 35.00 areas with little demand. Increasing crude inventories on weekly basis has punted down prices in bearish sentiment as reported by EIA. This week, we expect range bound trading in market as traders go for week-long holiday seasons. We expect price movement from 34.00 – 36.00 ranges but decline below the 34.00 supports should...

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Bank of England Holds Monetary Policy Unchanged

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 14 December 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S jobless claims rise to 3-months high while retail sales stay flat. Producer prices reverse higher against expectation ahead of final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for this year. China persists in export decline while manufacturing cost slides again. Bank of England holds benchmark rates unchanged amid maintaining bond purchase at GBP375 billion.

The U.S. jobless claims rose again in the week ended 5 December at 282,000 and highest in past 3 months. American retail sales maintained 0.2 percent gains in November. Core retail prices, excluding automobile sales, grew 0.4 percent and above forecast.

Another data on producer prices climbed 0.3 percent versus minus 0.4 percent in October, suggesting increasing cost in manufacturing. Traders are watching the outcome of FOMC meeting in next week for interest rate adjustment.

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 December 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude prices slipped to almost 6-year bottom at 35.00 regions on Friday and pulled down global stock indexes. Alternatively, Gold prices have managed to stand well above US1070.00/oz though trend still closed lower on weekly basis. Dollar Index trades lower as Euro continues to push higher into short-covering after European Central Bank disappointed market traders on weaker stimulus package. Market players are watching the U.S. FOMC meeting on coming Tuesday and Wednesday in case of rate adjustment before the year-end closes.

Crude Oil

WT Crude prices closed at USD35.45/barrel for weekend in weak strength. This week, we foresee the bears will drive down to test 33.00 regions at the bottoms created in January 2009 ahead of panic selling. Technically, we forecast possibility to test 30.00 benchmarks before the sharp jump. Market trend has...

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European Central Bank Extends Stimulus into 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 06 December 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. non-farm payroll dips below previous month report but better than expectation. FED chair Janet Yellen comments rate hike will be dependent on economic data in December. European Central Bank cuts deposit rate to minus 0.3 percent while extends monthly stimulus into 2017.

American pending home sales rose 0.2 percent in October, making first positive gains in past 3 months. The Institute of Supply Management reports the manufacturing index dropped below 50.0 levels at 48.6 in November, making first decline since June 2013.

Another separate report by Institute of Supply Management says the services index slid to 55.9 in November from previous month 59.1. Unemployment claims ended for the week at 28 November accounted 269,000 and remained steady.

The U.S. non-farm payroll increased 211,000 in October after it was...

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