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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 30 Dec 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The U.S. Dow Jones markets made new high on Friday after it ascended above 16,500 levels. The 10-year Treasury bond yield surged to 3 percent for the first time this year and triggered movement of funds from fixed-income assets to equities. Gold prices began to climb after jobless claims showed decline to 338,000 in the week ended 21 December. WTI Crude topped USD100 per barrel on Friday and remained strong after inventory supply fell further than previous week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices were creeping up slowly throughout last week amid low volume. The Friday’s report on Crude inventories showed more supplies at 4.7 million barrels and more than double the expectation. The market hovered above USD100.00 benchmarks as demands increased. This week, we reckon the support will emerge at 98.50 regions while the bulls...

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Dow Jones Creates New Historical High

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 30 December 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. DJIA creates new historical high above 16,500 levels amid quite Christmas seasons while 10-year Treasury bond yield climbs to 3 percent. New home sales in America continue to charge higher and lift the stock markets in upward sentiment after investors interpreted as positive recovery. Market has been literally quiet amid festive seasons but U.S. bond yields climb higher and U.K. gilt yields also edge higher causing Pound to create intra-year high.

The U.S. personal spending increased 0.5 percent in November after 0.4 percent gain in prior month. Another report from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment climbed to 82.5 from 75.1 in November.

The monthly new home sales that measures American housing demands exceeded projections in November. The data held near to 5-year high and reflected probable gains...

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FED Announces Tapering Stimulus in January

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 23 December 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. industrial production rises and national growth surges. Dow Jones markets close at record high despite tapering of stimulus. Japan reports largest trade deficits and Bank of Japan (BOJ) reiterates the continual expansion of monetary base. The Pound has been pushed up by strong market sentiment despite U.K. economic data remains flat. Budget deficit expands in U.K. and triggered profit-taking in some liquidation before weekend.

The U.S. industrial production climbed highest in a year after showing 1.1 percent gains in November. Consumer prices remained at par after a 0.1 percent drop in October. Core prices were up 0.2 percent and national inflation stays below 2 percent benchmark that signifies slow growth.

American housing starts jumped 22.7 percent to a 1.09 million annualized rate, exceeding all forecasts in November and indicated housing demand...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 Dec 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. FED remarked tapering of stimulus during the FOMC meeting held last week. Trimming of USD10 billion on monthly bonds purchase to USD75 billion will begin in January. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose to record high towards weekend after the tapering news as market investors reckoned recovery in sight. However, rising Dollar triggered sell-off in Gold prices while WTI Crude recovered to 99.00 regions after supply cut was indicated in weekly EIA report.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices recovered last week while sitting on 96.00 support areas. The market is hovering at EMA200 line on day-chart around 98.50 areas. The EIA report on last Wednesday indicated a supply cut of 2.9 million barrels in crude inventories which lifted the buying sentiment across the resistance predicted at 98.50 levels. This week, we foresee the selling pressure will be resilient...

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U.K. Properties Rise to Record High

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 16 December 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. budget deficit narrows as industrial production increases. Weekly jobless claims surge after Thanksgiving Day. Yen devalues again and yields on Japanese Government Bonds drop. U.K. housing prices rise to record high after demands push property values higher.

The U.S. government unveils plan to ease spending cuts by about USD63 billion over next 2 years that will reduce the deficit by USD23 billion, breaking a three-year cycle of fiscal standoffs. In a separate report, the budget deficit narrowed in November as revenue increased to USD182.5 billion while spending totaled USD317.7 billion.

The U.S. jobless claims surged 68,000 to a 2-month high of 368,000 as of weekly cycle ended 7 December, exceeding median forecast. Retail sale gained 0.7 percent after followed 0.6 percent advance in October. Core retail sale was up 0.4 percent...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 16 Dec 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. tapering of monetary stimulus rekindled as Treasury yield rose to 2.86 percent on Friday. Last Thursday, Crude inventories reported by EIA were down 10.6 million barrels which pulled up the market prices. Towards the weekend, Gold prices swung in whipsaw amid uncertainty while WTI Crude prices dropped to 1-week low amid profit-taking. On Friday, the Dollar strengthened but reversed the yellow metal prices from 1220.00 bottoms due to short-covering for profits.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices turned down from 98.70 tops last week amid profit-taking. This week, we reckon the resistance area will remain active at 98.70 – 99.00 regions while selling pressure may emerge. Technically, the market may drawdown to 94.50 areas if the topside resistance can remain intact. However, keep track on the weekly EIA report which could lead the trend in Crude prices.

Gold

Gold prices are...

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American Jobs Grew in November

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 09 December 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Labor Department reports additional 203,000 jobs were added in November. New homes sales in U.S. housing market show improvement and trigger some returning interest to Dow Jones stocks. European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) both maintain benchmark rates unchanged. ECB President Draghi commits his stance to keep low interest rates for extensive period to ensure economic recovery.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 57.3, the highest since April 2011, from last month 56.4. Construction spending climbed 0.8 percent in October from the prior month, double the forecast and made the biggest gain since May.

The new home sales on American soil jumped 25.4 percent in October to a 444,000 annualized pace. Another separate report by Institute for Supply Management's services index dropped to 53.9...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 9 Dec 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. unemployment rate was reported at 7 percent in November and 203,000 jobs were added. On Friday, Gold prices rebound from 1210.00 bottoms to 1240.00 levels after better job figures while Crude prices stayed firm. Last week, European Central Bank committed to low interest rates for extensive period to ensure recovery after cutting to 0.25 percent in November. Bank of England also kept benchmark rates unchanged at 0.5 percent while maintaining bond purchase program at GBP375 billion.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have finally been pushed up by contracting supply after many months of surpluses. The EIA reported weekly inventories at minus 5.6 million barrels of supply cuts that generated demands in market. This week, we foresee the trend will meet some selling pressure at 98.50 levels after it has climbed up from below 92.00 levels over past 1...

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Pound Rises to 10-Month High amid Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 02 December 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy shows uneven performance with decline in consumer confidence but a rise in building permits. Japan’s inflation gains in-line with expectation while jobless rate records at 4 percent. U.K. increases growth in Q3 and home lending grants have surged to 6-year high record. Central bank official says they will end the housing incentives and start focusing on issuing corporate loans.

The U.S. pending home sales slid 0.6 percent unexpectedly in October after followed 4.6 percent decline in prior month. However, building permits rose to highest levels in past 5 years with October data surged 6.2 percent to 1.03 million annualized rates. Conference Board’s index that measures consumer confidence fell to 70.4 in November from previously revised 72.4 figures.

The U.S. orders for durable goods dropped 2 percent in October after a...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 2 Dec 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. equity market remains vibrant above 16,000 benchmarks while Dollar weakens further against European currencies. Last week, Gold recovered in sideways trend but prone to bullish bias. Market investors stay alert for decision of curbing stimulus by FED policymakers though no news was heard. The weekly crude inventories continued to increase at 3 million barrels for the week ended 23 November. However, market rebounded on Friday before the week due to short-covering from almost 6-months low.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been declining for past weeks. However, the market reversed up on Friday from 92.00 bottoms to almost 94.00 levels as traders took profit for the weekend. This week, we reckon the bulls have to break 95.50 immediate resistances before it can skip higher at 98.00 benchmarks. However, breaking below 92.00 supports will probably go lower to test...

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