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European Central Bank May Ease Policy Soon

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 30 November 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. home market sees mild recovery in demand while prelim estimate on GDP projects growth. Jobless claims slide back to 5-week low at 260,000 filings. Japan slumps in consumer spending amid stagnated inflation. European investors observe central bank meeting in coming week for possible easing policy.

The U.S. existing homes sales grew 5.36 million in October and below forecast. The Conference Board of consumer confidence reports a slide at 90.4 in November after it rose to 99.1 revised in October, despite Dollar has strengthen for past 1 month.

Prelim GDP for Q3 rose 2.1 percent and better than expected. Another report on core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, rose 0.5 percent from revised minus 0.3 percent in September.

American weekly claims for jobless benefits reduced to 260,000 in the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 30 November 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dollar Index (USDX) reaches 100.00 benchmark while putting a lid on commodity prices. Gold prices slumped below 1070.00 /oz for settlement at 1057.00 levels for the weekend. Silver holds well in the weak market trend. Crude also behaves wobble sentiment amid supply glut. China stocks posted worst performance of 5 percent slump in Shanghai Composite Index on Friday after regulators investigated Haitong Futures.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading from 40.00 – 43.50 ranges for past 2 weeks. Supply glut in global market and slowdown in emerging markets have caused weak demand for energies. This week. We reckon resistance will be resilient at 43.00 areas but declining below 40.00 will initiate panic selling to test 35.00 levels.

Gold

Gold prices closed below 1070.00 levels and will turn this level into resistance for...

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Bank of Japan Holds Policy Unchanged

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 23 November 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes shows possible rate hike as favored by policymakers. Housing starts grow moderately while jobless claims stagnate in decline. Japan remains monetary policy unchanged. European Central Bank hints of adding more stimuli in near future.

The U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in October from minus 0.2 percent in prior month, rising speculation again on possible rate hike in December. Core prices, excluding food and energies, also gained 0.2 percent as expected. Industrial production, including mines and utilities, shrank 0.2 percent in same month.

The monthly U.S. housing starts increased 1.06 million annualized rates in October but lower than median forecast. Another data shows housing permit rose 1.15 million from a year ago versus 1.11 million annualized rates in September.

American jobless claims...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 November 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Paris was attacked by terrorism last week and causes alarm to global security measures. Gold prices trades higher as safe haven while U.S. Dollar Index also escalates near to 100.00 benchmarks as flight returns to greenback. Crude prices still trades in stagnate sentiment as demand slows amid declining global inflation.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded in very narrow range from 40.00 – 43.00 ranges last week. Slowdown in global inflation and growth forecast have put lid on crude demand while resistance emerges strong a 45.00 areas. Moving forward, we foresee likelihood to see bear trend further for testing 38.0 bottoms. Technically, driving below 38.00 may even sink to 32.00 as our targets. Long traders should control risk efficiently in case the trend moves as forecast above.

Gold

Gold prices have been slowing its...

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Crude Dip Reflects Persistent Recession

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 16 November 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. producer prices remain weak and deter expectation for rate hike. Retail sales grow in small pace while weekly jobless claims stay at high level. Japan declines in current account and producer prices are sluggish. European Central Bank stresses again on further easing if needed to spur growth. Crude prices slide to double bottom at USD40 per barrel.

The U.S. import prices fell 0.5 percent and more than expectation in October due to weakening crude prices and falling demand. Weekly jobless claims ended on 7 November records at 276,000 and above forecast.

In a speech delivered by FED chair Janet Yellen last week, she steered away from mentioning monetary policy and reiterated that economic data needs to be supportive for further rate hike to be justifiable.

American core retail...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 16 November 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices dipped to 5-year low on last week while Crude prices declined to test September low at USD40 per barrel. Technically, yellow metal a double bottom at USD1080.00 /oz and probably will bounce in coming week. Dollar index edges towards 100.00 benchmarks but has yet climbed above this major level. European Central Bank hints of possible further monetary easing while FED Yellen avoids mentioning the rate hike issue.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices has been trading in bear trend for 2 weeks with no sign of recovery. As Dollar index hangs near to 100.00 levels, we reckon the Crude may continue to slip to 38.00 bottom again before bargain-hunting comes into market. Immediate resistance is spotted at 44.00 regions in case of recovery. It is difficult to predict the trend for this...

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American Payroll Increases and Stokes Rate Hike Fear

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 09 November 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. non-farm payroll increases above median forecast and triggers expectation of rate hike before year-end. Japanese Yen makes new low and Kuroda says no stimulus is needed though policymakers are ready to act. Bank of England (BOE) remains monetary policy unchanged while European Central Bank (ECB) reaffirms of possible new stimulus.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management reports manufacturing index at 50.1 in October. Data above 50.0 reading indicates expansion. Another report on service index improved to 59.1, highest in past 3 months.

American factory orders was down at minus 0.1 percent in September, but better than minus 2.1 percent in August. Trade deficit for September narrowed down to USD40.8 billion from previous month USD48.0 billion.

The weekly claims for jobless benefits filed in U.S. Labor Department rose...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 09 November 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices falls to 13-week low as Dollar surges to fresh 3-month high record. American payroll increased 271,000 in October and rekindles the rate hike expectation in market. Crude prices also decline but has not fallen as sharply as previous metals. The U.S. weekly crude inventories remained steady at 2.8 million barrels in the week ended 30 November.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices declined fairly but stayed within the consolidation range from 43.00 – 48.00 regions. This week, we expect the movement will continue to trade inside this range without new certainty. Oil rigs in U.S. are reducing output and spreading shutdowns have cut the supply that prevent further losses in Crude prices. No new trend is expected until we see the prices break beyond the aforementioned range.

Gold

Gold prices closed below 1100.00...

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Federal Reserve Hints Rate Hike before December

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 02 November 2015

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve hints possible rate hike before December but worries that slow growth may not withstand the higher borrowing cost. Bank of Japan also holds policy unchanged and disappoints market investors amid expectation of new stimulus. U.K. records slide in mortgage approvals and lower growth in Q3.

The U.S. new home sales expanded 468,000 units and lower from revised 529,000 in previous month. Pending home sales dropped 2.3 percent and worse than 1.4 percent decline in August.

American durable goods, excluding transportation items, slid 0.4 percent in September after prior month dropped 0.2 percent, making second straight decline on monthly basis. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence grew at 97.6 but much lower from 102.6 in September.

The U.S. claims for jobless benefits stayed at 260,000 in the week...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 02 November 2015

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dollar index traded sideways but remained on high side throughout last week in 96.00 – 98.00 ranges. Commodity have returned to selling sentiment for counter balancing the greenback force. Before weekend, precious metals met profit-taking in market while Crude traded in small recovery from earlier sell-off. FED policymakers rattle market traders again by hinting possible rate hike before year-end that put off commodity demand.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded higher from 42.60 lows last week in recovery. Oil commodity has been ebbing on low sides and affect the operating profits for oil producing companies. Exxon Mobile reports Q3 profit falls 47 percent though still beats expectation. This week, we reckon range trading from 44.00 – 48.00 regions with no clue for direction. Risk control is necessary in case the extension turns into...

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