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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 28 March 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

USDX made moderate recovery last week and pressed down precious metals and energies. Global glut in supply also adds pressure to Crude demand amid with higher inventories in weekly report from U.S. EIA department. Major stock indexes have been striving to climb higher but stay at high prices before weekend though traders foresee an imminent slide is inevitable.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices topped off 42.00 resistance as we predicted 2 weeks ago. Moving forward, the market is prone to correct further down with resistance remains at 40.00 – 42.00 regions. This week, we reckon the bears will test 36.00 supports before driving lower. Dollar strength and international fundamentals will remain as essential factors for direction in Crude prices. Dropping further will probably land at 30.00 regions again before mid-April.

Gold

Gold prices broke...

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Federal Reserve Trims Rate Hike for This Year

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 21 March 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. core retail sales, excluding automobiles, improved to minus 0.1 percent after it contracted at minus 0.4 percent in February. Producer prices slid to minus 0.2 percent amid weak manufacturing.

American consumer prices slid 0.2 percent after stayed at par in January. Excluding fresh food and energies, core prices rose 0.3 percent and maintained in moderate growth. Housing permit grew 1.17 million in February and down from 1.20 million in previous month.

The U.S. weekly claims for jobless benefits grew moderately to 265,000 in the week ended 12 March, highest in past 3 weeks. Manufacturing index reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia rises expectedly by 12.4 in March and best record since May 2015.

Federal Reserve releases FOMC statement saying rate hike will be expected for 2 more...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 March 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

USDX begins to fall to 94.50 regions while commodity prices react by showing recovery, Gold/Silver ratio hit the 8-year high above 82.50 last week and declined, inducing the Silver to run up faster than yellow metal. This week, we reckon both previous metals will elevate in prices while Crude may recede lower for profit-taking. Crude prices closed above USD40.0 per barrel for first time in 2016 but investors predict this uptrend may be short-lived.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices climbed up last week and nearing to 42.00 resistances. This week, we forecast the market will hit the aforementioned resistance at 42.00 regions and begin to fall. Global supply glut is still haunting the demand while trading volume thins down as prices escalate. Immediate support lies at 36.00 areas should the profit-taking activity arise...

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European Central Bank Eases Policy to Help Recovery

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 14 March 2016

Fundamental Outlook

China trade surplus grows at smallest gain while consumer prices jump surprising. European Central Bank cuts rates again by easing massive stimulus in hope to revive the recession. U.K. poises for uncertainty in-lieu of national referendum for "Brexit" in June.

The U.S. wholesale inventories for January expanded 0.3 percent and higher than forecast, showing sign of demand slowdown in market. Weekly jobless claims dropped to 259,000 in the week ended 5 March, at best record over 4 months.

China's trade surplus grew USD32.59 billion in February, making steepest decline since 2009, after it gained USD63.3 billion in January. Exports fell 25.4 percent on-yearly comparison in February, while imports declined 13.8 percent, clocking far bigger slides than expected.

China's consumer prices rose 2.3 percent in February from a year ago, surprising...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 March 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Precious metals remain strong but hold back on new rally due to strong Dollar Index (USDX). WTI Crude poises for demand at USD38.00 regions but unable to clear above USD40.00 benchmarks. The widening trade deficits in China and deepening slowdown in Eurozone put brakes to recovery in energy prices while fund might start to pour into Gold and Silver again as safe haven. European Central Bank cuts benchmarks rates to historical low at zero from 0.05 percent while increasing the monthly purchase program to EUR80 billion for buying bonds.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been recovering on thin demand. Global supply glut still lingers in the market with caution among buyers. This week, we have identified strong resistance at USD42.00 /oz in case of quick pull up. Beware of another possible slump...

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G20 Leaders Meet to Discuss Economic Recovery

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 February 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. home sales fluctuates as consumer confidence wanes. However, core durable goods increase to better performance. German institutional confidence improves amid higher consumer prices. Global stocks and crude demand recover as G20 leaders meet to discuss on economic recovery.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence dropped to 92.2 in February from 97.8 from previous month, worse in 3 months. Existing home sales grew 5.47 million in January from prior month revised at 5.45 million. New home sales grew 494,000 in January and below forecast after it expanded 544,000 in previous month.

The order for American core durable goods, excludes transport equipment, rose 1.8 percent after it contracted at revised 1.0 percent in December. Weekly claims for jobless benefits for the week ended 19 February was reported at 272,000...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 February 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dollar Index (USDX) traded higher last week to 98.00 regions as short-covering rose in market. Crude inventories increased to 3.5 million barrels in the week ended 19 February did not initiate sell-off in Crude prices as G20 leaders met in Shanghai to discuss recovery solution for global recovery. Gold has been trading sideways as Silver dropped before weekend. Gold/Silver ratio reached historical high at 83.00 levels on Friday indicating an imminent downfall in the ratio index, which will soon trigger rise in precious metals.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed at 32.00 levels for the weekend and indicates an imminent recovery to occur. This week, we foresee the trend will make initial dip below 30.00 levels to 27.00 bottoms before it bounces up higher. Range is expected to move from 27.00 – 34.00...

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U.K. Drops in Jobless Claims amid Higher Retail Sales

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 February 2016

Fundamental Outlook

American consumer prices improve with producer prices. China reports increasing trade surplus while Japan slows in growth. European Central Bank reiterates on adding stimulus if needed. U.K. advances in retail sales amid declining claims.

The U.S. building permit grew 1.2 million in January and stay well balanced for housing demand. Producer prices went up 0.1 percent after it contracted 0.2 percent in previous month. Weekly claims for jobless benefits fell to 262,000 in the week ended 13 February and better the previous week. However, analysts presume this is due to tighter market from recent rates hike since unemployment has not really decline.

American consumer prices remained unchanged in January after slipping 0.1 percent in December. Core prices, excluding food and energies, rose 0.3 percent and biggest since August 2011.

China...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 February 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The global sentiment on Crude recovery remains uncertain as the NYMEX Sweet Crude Futures on March delivery is going to expire on coming Monday. It closed below USD30.00 /barrel on Friday while traders begin to watch the April performance on next week. Russia and Saudi have agreed to freeze the production and hope to reverse Crude prices upward, despite Iran insists in growing production. Gold prices edged sideways throughout the week with no new directional trend. USDX has been trading steadily from 95.00 - 97.00 regions while holding the commodity from falling further.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices still lingered at USD30.00 /barrel last week due to weak demand. This week, it will be a challenge to see if it can stay above this same benchmark for the whole week before going up...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 15 February 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

As the rout of Credit Default Swap (CDS) risers alarm in European markets, fund flight into precious metals as safe haven. Global equities sink in pessimism amid weak demand for Crude prices. WTI goes down to below USD30/barrel again and worries global investors. USDX weakens as Japanese Yen rises with plunging Nikkei markets.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed below 30.00 benchmarks and signals bear trend. It will be important to observe the market for closing above this same benchmarks next week before we could confirm the recovery trend. This week, resistance is identified at 34.00 in case of recovery. The downside is still exposed to 25.00 bottoms in case of further negativity that may come from CDS debts and increasing supply in Middle East.

Gold

Gold prices climbed from 1100.00 just 3 weeks...

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