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Bank of England Holds Policy Unchanged

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 15 May 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. shows slightly better consumer prices and retail prices also bounces back. China reports better consumer prices and trade surplus. French election has ended with support leaning on Macron as President-elect. Bank of England holds policy unchanged.

The U.S. weekly inventories on crude storage reduced by 5.2 million barrels and beat forecast, giving a boost in oil price recovery at USD47 /barrel. Unemployment claims for the week ended 6 May was 236,000 and matched forecast. Producer prices rose 0.5 percent in April compared to minus 0.1 percent and at 10-month high.

American consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in April. Excluding food and energy, core prices up 0.1 percent and better than previous month. Another set of data on retail prices rose 0.4 percent. Core retail prices, excluding automobile sales,...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 15 May 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices stood off USD1215 /oz last week and emergence of bargain-hunting has been discovered in market. This week, resistance is expected to act on USD1240 / oz to counter the uprising trend. Overall trend is predicted to move from USD1220 – USD1240 /oz in sideways mixed sentiment. Fishing for bottom is preferred as the market has fallen for past 1 month.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices just recovered from USD45.50 /barrel region amid contest from OPEC members. American Crude inventory fell last week and helped to lift the market demand. This week, we reckon the uptrend will be countered at USD49.50 – USD50 /barrel while confluent to EMA200 line on day-chart. In overall, sideways trend is expected from USD45 – USD50 /barrel in coming weeks before the market searches for new directional...

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American Payroll Rises in Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 08 May 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. payrolls increase almost 3 times than March. Rate hike is in market talk again possibly in mid-year season. China’s manufacturing expands at 7-month low record while British manufacturing still soars. U.K> net mending also rises in gains.

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management reports its manufacturing index rose to 54.8 in April, lowest record in past 4 months. Construction spending contracted 0.2 percent in March against revised 1.8 percent gains in previous month.

Another report on U.S. personal spending remained flat in February and little change in past 3 months. President Trump says he is considering in breaking up big banks in order to stimulate their growth faster. Nasdaq rose to record high on Wednesday to 6102 points followed Trump’s remarks.

The U.S. weekly claims for jobless benefits...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 08 May 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices have been falling as expected last week. Market topped off USD1270 /oz since last Monday and came below USD1230 /oz on Friday. This week, we believe there will be bargain-hunting at USD1220 /oz region with valid support. Range is expected to consolidate from USD1220 – USD1250 /oz with no huge movement for the time being.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have fallen below our predicted support at USD46 / barrel though the trend closed around this same region on Friday. The bears stretched beneath USD44 / barrel on Friday and short-covered. Traders are selling off the Crude inversely to increasing demand in pushing U.S. major index to new historical high. This week, we reckon the market will trade from USD44 – USD48 /barrel in mixed sentiment. Breaking below USD44 /barrel will...

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American Government Shuts Down

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 01 May 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. prelim GDP grows below expectation while government shuts down for further approval on spending. Bank of Japan and European central Bank both hold steady in unchanged monetary policy. French election lifts the European stock market ahead of final vote on 7 May.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence expands at 120.3 in April after last month was revised at 124.9. New home sales rose 621,000 in March and first time above 600,000 in past 7 months.

The U.S. Crude inventories narrow down by 3.6 million barrels in reserve storage last week and above forecast. Durable goods order expanded at 0.7 percent in March and lowest record in past 3 months. Core data, excluding transport equipment, contracted 0.2 percent from a revised 0.5 percent gains in February.

Another...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 01 May 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

WTI Crude prices stayed below USD50 /barrel for the whole of last week with buying demand in market. Technically, we foresee the potential in Dollar rebound or increasing output in U.S. production may become detrimental to the Crude prices in coming week. There is a possibility of seeing trend receding to USD46 /barrel while suppressing at USD50 /barrel resistance. The market needs to stand above USD50 /barrel in order to regain buyers’ confidence.

Bank of England Urges Flexibility in Financial Regulations

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 24 April 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing markets show sign of recovery while Treasury Secretary reassures a positive tax-reform is in the pipeline. France suffers another terrorist attack before Presidential election starts in May. U.K. begins to see gradual slowdown as BREXIT commences while central bank urges flexibility in suiting the economic changes.

The U.S. building permits rose 1.26 million in March and higher than revised 1.22 million in prior month. Another report on housing starts expanded 1.22 million and dipped to lowest in 4-month record.

According to weekly inventories, U.S. crude storage cut down by 1 million barrels on week ended 15 April and matched forecast. Weekly jobless claims were reported at 244,000 remains steady. Existing home sales rose 10-year high in March with 5.71 million growth.

Philadelphia manufacturing index grows at 22.0...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 24 April 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices have exhibited a reversal pattern in week-chart and likely to drawdown for correction this week. Range is target to recede lower at USD1250 /oz region in case of liquidation. Market has not seen profit-taking for last 3 weeks and might be commencing soon. However, beware of geo-political tension in DPR Korea that could spike the yellow metal as safe haven while bypassing above USD1285 /oz will climb higher to USD1310 /oz region.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have shown waning confidence in buying interest as the bulls have failed to clear above USD54 /barrel. As the consolidating range is still restricted from USD50 – USD54 /barrel, we are seeing a danger of demand that might probably slide out of the range and kick-off a new bearish sentiment in market. We...

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U.S. Bombs Afghanistan and Dow Market Bludgeons

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 17 April 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. inflation reflected by producer and consumer prices contract. American military action hits Afghanistan unexpectedly but hammers Dow Jones market. Japan reports higher inflation and growth in machine orders. U.K. inflation stays resilient.

The U.S. producer prices shrank 0.3 percent and first time decline after 7 months, compared to 0.3 percent gains in February. Unemployment claims improved in the week ended 8 April at 234,000 and below forecast.

American consumer prices shrank 0.3 percent in March and turned negative for first time in past 13 months. Excluding food and energy, core prices also dropped to minus 0.1 percent. Retails sales remained weak at minus 0.2 percent while core sales was flat at par.

On Friday morning in Asia, U.S. military force dropped a non-nuclear bomb on Afghanistan. Market analyst...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 17 April 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

WTI Crude prices closed at USD53.00 /barrel on Friday and signaled market strength though it did not jump higher. Traders stay on fence while watching OPEC leader Saudi in keeping promise on supply cut in April. Geo-political tension on Northern Asia may lift energy prices higher in coming week. Technically, we predict the range will be constricted from USD50 – USD55 /barrel until we see a breakthrough in near future.

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