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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 9 June 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The US non-farm payrolls for May rise 217,000 in line with expectation while unemployment rate stays at almost 6-year low at 6.3 percent. DJIA and S&P 500 closed at historical highs at 16,924 and 1949 levels respectively. Last Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) shaved interest rate to salvage slowdown threats in 18 nations but failed to press Euro value lower. Instead of drifting lower, Gold prices bounced with Euro currency after rate cut by ECB as signs of rejection by market sentiments. Crude prices poised for sideways trend amid immunity from war tension.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded largely from 101.50 to 103.50 regions last week. Main fundamental factors came from Ukraine war tension and inverse USD trend to Crude prices. The weekly Crude inventories for previous week was reported at minus 3.4...

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European Central Bank Cut Rates to Historical Low

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 9 June 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US manufacturing data shows little improvement but trade balance widens due to rising imports. European Central Bank (ECB) cuts its benchmark rate to 1.5 percent at historical low with deposit rate going down to minus 0.1 percent. Bank of England (BOE) maintains core interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent. International Monetary Fund (IMF) urges UK to contain the housing bubble and prevents property prices from rising too quickly.

The US Institute of Management's reports its manufacturing PMI index at 55.4 in May and within expectation. The Commerce Department releases its monthly factory order at 0.7 percent gains after previous month was revised to 1.5 percent gains in April.

The US trade balance widened to USD42.7 billion in May and lower than consensus. Another separate report shows that consumer credit rose in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 2 June 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Commodity prices were generally lower last week due to rising Dollar Index. Gold prices fell below 1380.00 supports as we predicted while rising crude inventories on weekly basis also punted the WTI trend after mid week. The Energy Information Administration reported the weekly crude inventories at 1.7 million barrels and above consensus. However, it is important to continue the observation of Ukraine tension in case the abrasive eruption will stoke crude prices higher in coming week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading largely from 102.50 -104.50 ranges last week. The market is threading very cautiously without clear direction due to the contradiction of rising Dollar and heating dispute in Ukraine. Technically, we have identified the resistance to be strong at 104.50 – 105.00 regions with triple top formation but penetrating below 102.500...

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Euro Interest Rate May be Shaved This Week

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 2 June 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US reveals home demand still in weakness despite sentiment outlook for coming 6 months grows. Japan surprises market with rising core consumer prices at highest record for past 23 years. The meeting for European Central Bank (ECB) in coming week may see drastic action by President Draghi.

The US durable goods data rose 0.8 percent in April after a revised advance of 3.6 percent gains in prior month. The Conference Board's gauge of consumer sentiment rose to 80.4 after 78.5 in April. Weekly jobless claims declined 27,000 to 300,00 while ended 24 May.

Pending home sales increased 0.4 percent in April but much below consensus. Another report on quarterly growth fell 1 percent annualized rate in Q1, worst than expectation. On Friday, consumer spending unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent, the first decrease...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 26 May 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold has been staying sideways for whole week with uncertainty. Despite rising Dollar, the yellow metal is supported by the threats of Ukraine crisis in addition to the dispute in Korea Peninsula and China Xinjiang bomb. Crude inventories slid 7.2 million barrels in prior week and surged as well. In our opinion, the simultaneous rise in Dollar and major commodity might not be ideal as interest rates may be threatened soon into tightening.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded in bullish sentiment last week from 101.50 bottoms to above 104.00 closing for the weekend. Uptrend is basically due to contraction in crude inventories and political dispute in Ukraine-Russia tension. Technically, market might be forming a triple-top formation at 105.00 - 105.30 regions this week but will remain questionable if it could surge higher beyond...

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UK May Raise Interest Rates by Year-End

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 26 May 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US home markets show recovery strength while Dollar strengthens. Japan refrains from stimulus injection as policymakers stress confidence in further recovery. Britain may be seen as first central bank to raise interest rates by year-end due to growing housing bubbles.

The US existing home sales for April increased to a 4.65 million annualized rates. Weekly jobless claims rose 28,000 to 326,000 in the week ended May 17 from a 7-year low in the prior period. On Friday, new home sales gained 6.4 percent increase to a 433,000 annualized rate in April, the biggest in 6 months and followed a 6.9 percent March decline.

Japan's trade deficit shrank in April after imports rose 3.4 percent from a year earlier, least in past 16 months. Exports jumped 5.1 percent, leaving a deficit of...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 19 May 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold failed to break above 1310.00 resistances last week amid stronger Dollar trend. Crude inventories rose 900 barrels and above consensus that suppressed the oil prices weaker towards weekend. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterates his opinion on injecting stimulus in coming June and favors weaker euro to expedite recovery. Dollar has been strengthening against Euro and Pound though it softens against yen as counter balance. Market will be watching China's PMI data on coming Thursday to decide the market trend.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded in lighter demands after mid last week. the market will be prone to test 100.50 supports in coming week if Dollar rise further and Ukraine tension eases. In our opinion, the market could be ranged from 101.50 to 103.00 regions while breaking beyond either side is a...

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Dow Jones Corrects amid Steady Economy

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 19 May 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US economy posts better traction in recovery while Dow Jones benchmarks retreat on expected timely withdrawal of stimulus. Japan gains in economic growth that result in Yen rise. German posts stronger growth despite the overall 18 Euro nations slowdown momentum in growth. UK stays firm in recovering employment markets.

The US posted smaller budget surplus in April from a year ago. Revenue exceeded spending by USD106.9 billion versus last year's same month at USD112.9 billion surplus. Another report on producer prices rose 0.6 percent in April that was highest since September 2012. Core prices, excluding volatile food and fuel, rose 0.5 percent after rising 0.6 percent in March.

American weekly jobless claims dropped 24,000 to 297,000 in the week ended May 10, lowest in 7-years record. The consumer price index increased...

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European Central Bank Keeps Rates Unchanged

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 12 May 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US FED chief Janet Yellen hints of stimulus as necessary action to ensure economic recovery. China reveals flambuoyant economy as consumer prices decline amid rising national trade surplus. European Central Bank (ECB) remains interest rates unchanged but President Draghi forewarns of injects imminent stimulus if growth stalls.

The US Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index rose to 55.2 in April compared to previous month 53.1. Another report shows trade deficits narrowed in March with trade gap shrank by 3.6 percent to USD40.4 billion from the prior month's USD41.9 billion.

The US consumer credit rose USD17.5 billion in March that was bigger than revised USD13 billion in last month. Non-revolving loans, including borrowing for cars and college tuition, rose by the most in 6 months. US jobless claims fell 26,000 to 319,000 in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 12 May 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices weakened last week as Dow Jones stocks traded higher due to hinting comments from FED chief Yellen. She expressed that unemployment and inflation still fall short from FED's goals while stimulus is still needed to keep the economy in recovery. Crude prices headed up for weekly gains on Friday settlement as inventories stockpile contracted. European currencies declined after European Central Bank's President Draghi commented willingness to consider inject stimulus in June to keep Euro low for stimulating growth.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices swung on Friday amid some buying interests in market at 100.00 regions. This week, we reckon the trend will trade from 99.00 supports to 102.00 tops in case of further support from fundamental news. However, observe the rising Dollar strength from rapid receding value in Euro currencies in pushing commodity...

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