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Pound Rises to 10-Month High amid Growth

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 02 December 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy shows uneven performance with decline in consumer confidence but a rise in building permits. Japan’s inflation gains in-line with expectation while jobless rate records at 4 percent. U.K. increases growth in Q3 and home lending grants have surged to 6-year high record. Central bank official says they will end the housing incentives and start focusing on issuing corporate loans.

The U.S. pending home sales slid 0.6 percent unexpectedly in October after followed 4.6 percent decline in prior month. However, building permits rose to highest levels in past 5 years with October data surged 6.2 percent to 1.03 million annualized rates. Conference Board’s index that measures consumer confidence fell to 70.4 in November from previously revised 72.4 figures.

The U.S. orders for durable goods dropped 2 percent in October after a...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 2 Dec 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. equity market remains vibrant above 16,000 benchmarks while Dollar weakens further against European currencies. Last week, Gold recovered in sideways trend but prone to bullish bias. Market investors stay alert for decision of curbing stimulus by FED policymakers though no news was heard. The weekly crude inventories continued to increase at 3 million barrels for the week ended 23 November. However, market rebounded on Friday before the week due to short-covering from almost 6-months low.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been declining for past weeks. However, the market reversed up on Friday from 92.00 bottoms to almost 94.00 levels as traders took profit for the weekend. This week, we reckon the bulls have to break 95.50 immediate resistances before it can skip higher at 98.00 benchmarks. However, breaking below 92.00 supports will probably go lower to test...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 25 Nov 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index made new historical high last week by skipping above 16,000 benchmarks. The U.S. net long-term portfolio investment inflow was USD25.5 billion in September, which implies funds moving into American equities and currency. Gold prices fell throughout the week due to fear of tapering stimulus in coming months but Crude prices bounced from anticipation of recovery manufacturing sectors. Euro and Pound strengthened from better growth rate in Germany and U.K. economy. Hence, the market encountered receding Yen to 101.00 levels in the wake of balancing Dollar rise.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been suppressed by increasing supplies for past weeks though small rebound was seen last week. Technically, we foresee the market will see bargain-hunting at 93.00 levels. However, breaking beneath 93.00 levels will drive lower to test the lower support at...

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Dow Jones Hits New High

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 25 November 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. net long-term assets rise in foreign holdings and lifts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index to historical close above 16,000 levels. Investors remain cautious in inflation check amid concerns of tapering in early 2014. Japanese Yen devalues as USD rises from the diversification from their difference in monetary policies. U.K. economic data show consistent improvements in narrowing trade deficits and factory output, thus supporting Pound on elevation.

The U.S. net long-term portfolio investment inflow was USD25.5 billion in September after a revised USD9.8 billion outflow in previous month. China raises the holdings of U.S. treasuries by 2 percent and Japan increased 2.5 percent, bringing positive sentiments in market to continue invest in American assets.

The Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reiterates low interest rates to ensure smooth recovery. However,...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 18 Nov 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Crude Oil

The current Vice Chairman of U.S. Federal Reserve Janet Yellen assures the market of continual stimulus until robust growth returns in economy. On Friday, Dow Jones Average Index (DJIA) created new high by surpassing 15,900 benchmarks as 10-year bond yield declined. The U.S. budget deficit narrows while weekly jobless claims drops mildly. Crude inventories increase steadily and suppresses on the market prices amid lower demands.

WTI Crude prices traded in technical recovery on Friday after Dollar weakened against Euro and Pound. This week, we reckon strong selling pressure will emerge at 96.00 levels and the trend will probably be trapped from 93.00 – 96.00 ranges. However, we foresee the Crud prices may go down to 90.00 benchmarks in near future if the weekly inventory report continues to grow in volume.

Gold

Gold prices floated in recovery last week due to...

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Yellen Emphasizes Stimulus on Recovery

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 18 November 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index made new historical record high last week. Federal Reserve Janet Yellen says economic recovery needs to be assured before withdrawing financial stimulus. American import rises and widens trade deficit. British jobless rate improved by falling from previous quarter. U.K. job numbers improve as unemployment falls.

The U.S. budget deficit narrowed in October by USD91.6 billion that was significant below USD120 billion shortfalls from a year ago. Trade deficit jumped 8 percent to USD41.8 billion from revised USD38.7 billion in August, indicating an increase in import than export in September.

Jobless claims in the week ended 9 November slid 2,000 to 339,000 from a revised 341,000 the week. Factory output rose more than forecast by gaining 0.3 percent after followed 0.1 percent gain in the prior...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 11 Nov 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices were supported at 93.00 levels as market rebound above 94.00 for weekend closing. This week, the market may begin to consolidate for technical recovery while we foresee the price movements may trade from 93.00 to 98.50 targets. The crude inventory has slowed down in its weekly report and trend may be turning up from gradual demands. However, beware of it driving beneath 94.00 levels as this might lead to 91.00 as our next target.

Gold

The Gold prices closed lower on second consecutive week. Last Thursday, European Central Bank cut refinance rate from 0.5 percent to 0.25 percent and triggered plunge on Gold prices. On Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department surprised the market with rising payroll above median forecast at 204,000 while unemployment at 7.3 percent. Dollar rose further and hammered yellow metal and energy prices...

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European Central Bank Cuts Rate

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 11 November 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy grows as jobless claims reduce continually. Policymakers prepare to sell USD80 billion worth of Treasury bonds before February and lifted DJIA at record close on last Wednesday. However, European Central Bank cuts refinance rate to 0.25 percent and perceived by market analysts as weakening sentiment. Asia equities fell on Friday as investors stayed cautious.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index increased to 55.4 from 54.4 in September, and accelerated fastest in 16 years record. Another report on weekly jobless claims slid 9,000 to 336,000 in the week ended 2 November. The quarterly growth for Q3 gained 2.8 percent annualized rate after up 2.5 percent in the prior quarter.

The U.S. Treasury Department will sell USD10 billion to USD15 billion of its first floating-rate notes at end January....

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Global Weekly Market Wrap – 4 November 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

上周五个交易日是马来西亚马棕榈和大陆内盘棕榈油联袂上冲,一举冲过前高的日子。短线看来 内外盘 棕榈油仍有惯性上冲动能。

对于美元指数来说美国经济数据继续向好,美联储官员有重提QE缩减的预期。美元指数从10月28起又出现上冲迹象。但是非美货币,欧元,英镑则出现回落。与此同时,美黄金也出现不同程度回落。

上周,商品市场是较为活跃的一周,内盘建材类三小品种如玻璃,螺纹,焦炭也大有触低点反弹迹象。整体来说商品市场仍较为分化,强者较强,弱者较弱。在此时刻就要密切关注不同品种具体走势,有针对性的具体操作各个品种。

个人看法,我们依然把最强的品种放在农产品上,也就是中国和马来西亚的棕榈油最后上冲,该类品种仍存在一定的动能。建材类三小品种我们也要密切关注一下。而化工类,大工业类,特别是黄金类我们则需要谨慎些。目前商品市场多空主力还存在一定的分歧,从下周来说短线操作适量短多操作, 应该有 一定收获。

This commentary is contributed by Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 4 Nov 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed at USD94.61 per barrel on Friday after plunging from 97.00 regions on last Wednesday. The inventories were reported at 4.1 billion barrels. This week, we forecast the slowdown in demands in global economy may press the market down to 92.50 levels before rebound begins. The consolidation may top at 97.50 levels for the time being but bearish sentiment will still engulf the market. Beware of breaking beneath 92.50 supports as this might lead to 90.00 targets.

Gold

The Gold prices fell last week despite U.S. FED policymakers reaffirmed old news of remaining monthly stimulus. In fact, Dollar index recovers from 8-month low record from 79.06 bottoms and climbs above 80.50 levels which has hammered the yellow metal. The U.S. overall economy recedes into slowdown again while Crude inventories have been increasing for past few...

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