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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 Oct 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. government remains shutdown and becomes worrisome to many bilateral partners that this may risk global recession. Commodity markets in Gold and Crude are literally waiting for good news if the U.S. Congress is able to begin negotiation and reach an agreement to raise debt limit ceiling. However, prices began to fall towards weekend as traders turned disappointed to silence among U.S lawmakers.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading between 101.00 – 104.00 regions for past few days before weekend. The market is well supported above 100.00 benchmarks for the time being but the ease for Syria crisis has put off buying interest. We reckon the forthcoming re-operation of U.S. government will lead to price jump in Crude demands. Technically, piercing above 104.00 resistances will carry potential to reach 108.00 levels again.

Gold

Gold prices slid from 1330.00 top...

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The U.S. Shutdown Risks Global Recession

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 14 October 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. government remains partially shut since 1 October and many emerging countries are worried of global recession from this political impasse. Global stock markets have been down and only bounced on last 2 days before weekend when U.S. Congress said negotiation might begin. U.K. factory output and construction decline and drag pound from the recent height.

The U.S. released few data last week due to shutdown in Commerce Department. Jobless claims surged 66,000 in the week ended 5 October to 374,000 and made highest record in past 6 months. On Thursday and Friday, DJIA recovered about 400 points after Congress lawmakers moved towards meeting for reaching an agreement to raise debt limit ceiling.

Janet Yellen has been nominated to be next FED governor from January. Emerging markets from South Korea to Brazil...

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The U.S. Shuts Down in Political Impasse

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 7 October 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. government shuts down due to deadlock of discussion in raising budget debt limit. Japan announces tax raise plan and new stimulus at the same time but fails to perk up investors' confidence. Yen still rises despite Tankan's report showed confidence in large manufacturers. European Central Bank remains key interest rates unchanged but will prepare to act further if needed to ensure smooth recovery.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management reports its factory index rose to 56.2 in September, the strongest since April 2011. Another service index from the same institution declined to a 3-month low 54.4 from August 58.6. Jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 308,000 in the week ended 28 September with lesser filings.

On 1 October, The U.S. Congress hit political impasse that shut down its partial government after...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 7 Oct 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. government shuts down after 17 years and investors reckon this opportunity as bargain hunting season in equities and commodity markets. No report was released on non-farm payroll on Friday due to non-operation in U.S. Commerce Department. Gold prices have been swinging in uncertain sentiment after it recovered from 1277.00 bottoms during middle last week. Crude prices lifted higher on Friday after Tropical Storm Karen swept into Gulf of Mexico and pushed into U.S. Coast.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded slightly higher on Friday and closed at 103.80 levels. We reckon the market needs to break above 104.60 resistances in coming week in order to initiate new bullish trend. In fact, piercing above 104.60 is a potential sign to reach 108.00 targets again if Tropical Storm Karen persists in the Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, the...

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The U.S. Government May Shut Down

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 September 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. jobless claims continue to reduce while growth expands. However, the federal budget dry-up may implicate shut down in U.S. government due to political impasse in raising the debt limit. Japan prepares to announce the new tax-levy plan next week. Britain has shown steady recovery from rising consumer spending.

The U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence index declined to 79.7 in September from prior month 81.8. Another report by S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 12.4 percent from July 2012, matching the median forecast.

American orders for core durable goods were down 0.1 percent in August against a rising expectation. The weekly U.S. jobless claims dropped 5,000 to 305,000 ended 21 September.

New home sales rose 7.9 percent in August to a 421,000 annualized pace, almost in-line with median forecast as...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 Sep 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. is reaching its debt limit in federal government again and may face shut down from 1 October unless Congress acts before the deadline. Japan's Prime Minister will announce his new tax-levy on 1 October as well which could be affecting the direction of Yen. The Crude prices soften as Syria crisis winds down and fear of U.S. budget impasse may hurt growth. Market traders stay sideline and wait to act on coming week upon the major fundamental outcome.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices were gradually stepping down in prices last week due to ease in war-tension. The market has much buying interest lining up at 101.50 regions should the market drop in early coming week. We foresee the potential rebound might spring up to 105.00 as our reasonable target while making the short-covering phase. However, risk needs to...

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Bernanke Confirms Stimulus Continuity

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 23 September 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke surprises the market by reinforcing his speech to maintain the monthly USD85 Billion in bond-purchase program. Europe stays in dormant mode as Germany wades into national Election. Britain moves in steadfast economic pace despite analysts anticipate correction of Pound may begin soon.

The U.S. consumer-price increased 0.1 percent in august. The data was below forecast and least in 3 months after July gained 0.2 percent. Claims for jobless benefits climbed 15,000 to 309,000 in the week ended 14 September, from a revised 294,000 in the prior period.

Another separate report on U.S. current-account deficit narrowed in the second quarter to the lowest in almost 4 years. The economists believe the export rise has helped to shrink the gap by 5.7 percent to USD98.9 billion in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 Sep 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. Federal Reserve frustrated the market after mid last week with contradictory statement. Chairman Bernanke reinforced on Thursday after FOMC meeting that policymakers will not taper stimulus from the monthly USD85 Billion bond-purchase program. On Friday, the FED Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard cited that policymakers may trim some bond buying in October. Global stocks and majority commodities surged after Bernanke’s statement but plunged on late Friday’s session. Dow Jones fell 185 points at the weekend closing bell and Gold plunged about USD40 ranges.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed lower on weekly basis at 104.75 due to Bullard’s statement on Friday. The market has been sliding after mid-week due to increasing supply in Libya and ease of war-tension in Syria. This week, we foresee the trend may head down lower to 102.00 regions should the...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 16 Sep 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The Dow Jones and global stocks retuned to firm sentiment last week as war drums toned down. Syria agreed to submit the chemical weapons to U.N. inspectors as Russia proposed in the meeting with U.S. President Obama. American jobless claims fell again to 292,000 for the week ended 7 September and triggered new expectation of tapering stimulus in September. Gold prices fell towards weekend while Crude softened as warfare has been waning.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading in mid-range between 106.00 – 111.00 regions. Market has been softening last week as the calling for air strikes against Syria waned. This week, we predict the immediate resistance will suppress at 109.00 and the bear might drive the market lower at 105.50 – 106.00 areas. Breaking above 109.00 resistances will be countered by another higher resistance at 111.00 levels....

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Pound Higher Amid Growing Housing Demand

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 16 September 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. stocks trade firmer amid tune-down of drum beat for Syria war. Job markets continue to strengthen in contracting claims and rekindle fear of tapering in September month. London data consolidates on housing demands and construction. Pound moves higher in optimism amid U.K. economic recovery.

The U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.1 percent in July. Another report on budget deficits narrowed to USD147.9 billion in August, compared with USD190.5 billion gap from a year ago. So far, the accumulated deficits for 11 months that ends 30 September through this fiscal year has charted USD755.3 billion, the narrowest for last 5 years.

American jobless claims fell by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended 7 September, returning fear of tapering stimulus in this month. This week, traders will be watching the FOMC meeting for...

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