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Global Weekly Market Wrap – 4 November 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

上周五个交易日是马来西亚马棕榈和大陆内盘棕榈油联袂上冲,一举冲过前高的日子。短线看来 内外盘 棕榈油仍有惯性上冲动能。

对于美元指数来说美国经济数据继续向好,美联储官员有重提QE缩减的预期。美元指数从10月28起又出现上冲迹象。但是非美货币,欧元,英镑则出现回落。与此同时,美黄金也出现不同程度回落。

上周,商品市场是较为活跃的一周,内盘建材类三小品种如玻璃,螺纹,焦炭也大有触低点反弹迹象。整体来说商品市场仍较为分化,强者较强,弱者较弱。在此时刻就要密切关注不同品种具体走势,有针对性的具体操作各个品种。

个人看法,我们依然把最强的品种放在农产品上,也就是中国和马来西亚的棕榈油最后上冲,该类品种仍存在一定的动能。建材类三小品种我们也要密切关注一下。而化工类,大工业类,特别是黄金类我们则需要谨慎些。目前商品市场多空主力还存在一定的分歧,从下周来说短线操作适量短多操作, 应该有 一定收获。

This commentary is contributed by Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 4 Nov 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed at USD94.61 per barrel on Friday after plunging from 97.00 regions on last Wednesday. The inventories were reported at 4.1 billion barrels. This week, we forecast the slowdown in demands in global economy may press the market down to 92.50 levels before rebound begins. The consolidation may top at 97.50 levels for the time being but bearish sentiment will still engulf the market. Beware of breaking beneath 92.50 supports as this might lead to 90.00 targets.

Gold

The Gold prices fell last week despite U.S. FED policymakers reaffirmed old news of remaining monthly stimulus. In fact, Dollar index recovers from 8-month low record from 79.06 bottoms and climbs above 80.50 levels which has hammered the yellow metal. The U.S. overall economy recedes into slowdown again while Crude inventories have been increasing for past few...

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The U.S. FED Reinforces Stimulus

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 4 November 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. inflation measured by consumer prices and producer prices both decline. Policymakers press on with monthly stimulus of USD85 billion to ensure recovery. Eurozone consumer prices slide for third month as unemployment rises in 17 nations. U.K. moves on moderate recovery but Pound falls below 1.6000 benchmarks due to liquidation for profits.

The U.S. factory output rose 0.1 percent in September after a revised 0.5 percent gain in prior month. The pending sales for existing home slumped 5.6 percent while making fourth month decline.

American retail sales excluding auto dealers rose 0.4 percent in September after following a 0.1 percent gain the prior month. Another report filed by Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 71.2 in October, dipping at 6-month low and below forecast.

The inflation weakened in U.S. economy after producer...

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Global Weekly Market Wrap – 28 October 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

就在上周二 10月22号 美国方面补发了9月份的非农就业数据报告(政府停摆 原定于10月4日被拖延) 报告数据显示 9月份全美非农就业人数增加14.8万大大低于预期的18.0万,也低于8月份的增幅16.2万。数据报告的异常疲软 ,令市场对美联储年内缩减QE的预期大减 ,如果说9月份市场人士对缩减QE还抱有部分希望。但本月非农数据的公布令投资人对10月份美联储缩减QE的希望 完全化为泡影。美元指数压力大增当它跌破80.00整数关后。目前下跌到79.00一线。

下周全球焦点又汇聚到美联储决议上,美国时间下周三10.30日(北京时间下周四凌晨2:00) 美联储10月利率决议 无疑将夺人眼球。目前市场投资人士普遍认为美联储不会在10月决议中宣布缩减QE规模,并且多家机构铁板钉钉地表示美联储在此次决议中料将维持0-0.25%的基准利率和850亿美元的资产购买规模不变。十月美联储将按兵不动, 成为当前投资人一边倒的普遍心态。当全球所有人预期达到惊人一致的时候,我们需要考虑到目前美元的下跌是否已经体现金融市场这种心态 。届时一旦美联储公布出大家已经预期的结果,市场是否会出现 “利空出尽便是利多”的大众投机心理因为美元指数“卖预期,买事实”的行情已经发生过多次,这点需要我们下周三 或周四 警惕一下。

上周金融市场的表现观察美元指数依旧在非农数据报告疲软,缩减QE预期减弱情况下压力大增。此外,美元指数一度失79.00整数关。从技术上观察,美元的下跌依然没被遏制短线技术上的回落仍在惯性延续。美元在下跌同时,作为贵金属的黄金的金融属性受到追捧和被推高。短期来说,黄金短线走势仍有上冲动能 。另外, 如果有观察外汇市场,我们可以看到在美元回落过程中, 非美货币如欧元, 英镑等风险货币发力上行已经是达到一年多来的高点附近。上述三个品种与美元的跷跷板现象较为明显,目前技术 观察来说该现象仍有延续的空间。

从上周的全球商品市场来观察,商品市场的表现就差强人意了。在美元指数下跌过程中,美原油也同样出现了同方向的 回落。而在上周三作为工业品中的有色金属类LME伦敦铜,内盘铜, 锌也加入了短线下跌队伍。此外,化工类的橡胶在上周五也出现了破位下跌情况。大陆内盘的其它商品包括玻璃,螺纹,焦碳也都不同程度的出现了下跌。整体工业品类如大宗商品几乎都出现的转弱迹象。从该类各个商品技术上观察,后市短线的继续下跌已经出现了苗头 。

商品市场上稍微表现较强的还是我们前期一直提到的以棕榈油为代表的农产品类 。从马来西亚毛棕榈油基准1401合约技术观察,从8月初开始的第一步上涨直到8月28日上涨步伐被遏止 。8月28日过后到9月26日为回落整理,这次的回落的幅度几乎就在我们提到的61.8%费波纳契回撤的位置。从9月26日开始,第三波的上冲又展开了,目前价格已经来到8月28日前高位置。之前(6月20日)价格也在同样的位置出现过转身下跌现象。上周我们就提到过对该位置的担忧当价格冲到该位置,价格是否会象前期一样出现快速下跌 还是一跃而过的上涨。这个问题在上周市场没有给出我们明确答案,因为市场本身也出现了犹豫毕竟前2次都是从目前价格上做出了技术性下跌,负面的大众投资心理阴影笼罩于当前的市场。上周提到的问题本周依然回答不了,我们预测下周恐将会给出一些线索。按照我个人意愿,我愿意见到一举冲过该高点并且决定性的站在该技术压力位置之上。可惜的是由于工业品包括化工类商品的近几天的疲软,又担心被工业品类给拖下。内盘的棕榈油同马棕榈类似也是到了敏感位置并且在该位置多头苦苦挣扎了好几天。如此看来,多头保持继续上冲的意愿还是强烈。但整体商品市场的大盘面和商品整体的连动性却没有更多的给予棕榈油支持,商品市场的商品分化加剧也给投资人士也留下了一个大的悬念。

综述: 商品市场分化现象变得更为严重 。农产品类油脂较强但工业化工类表现较弱,市场多空分歧加剧。从以往的经验来说,农产品类经常被工业品类拖累。对于这一现象,短线并不排除后市该现象有可能会出现如下:

1.技术上出现大的压力位

2. 整体盘面又出现大面积疲软态势,所以我们从心理上需要更多的警惕。

个人见解:油脂类趋势性操作者原老多单在当前位置减仓60%,因为我们刚从前期回落时候终于又熬到了8月28日前的高位置。为了避免市场再次重演前波的回落,我们先把部分利润兑现因为我们 在8月28日时候并没兑现过。波段性操作者,由于操作理念是按照市场价格运行轨迹来“分段”操作,所以不存在趋势操作者那种 “熬”市场的现象。正因为更为主动些,在市场后市不明朗情况下建议前期多单全部平仓然后出来观望一下, 等待市场给出较为明确的方向指引。短线操作者就更为灵活了,可尝试买农产品 空工业品进行跨品种套利操作较为保守行为以度过当前市场方向性难关而又不会因为没有操作而带来的“手痒痒”的现象。

This commentary is contributed by Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 28 Oct 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices behave in weak sentiment as demands have been contracting over weeks. The war-tension has eased totally and does not threaten the market anymore while weekly inventories reported by Energy Information Administration keep increasing. The market has strong resistance capped at 100.00 levels while moving sideways recovery. This week, we forecast the support will lie at 96.00 regions. However, the trend may decline further to 94.00 levels if additional increase in supply continues after mid-week.

Gold

The Gold prices traded higher last week as market expected the tapering to delay in November. The U.S. economy fails to pick up in faster pace after the federal government resumed. Non-payroll for September gained 148,000 and below expectation, while existing home sales dropped in previous month. The Crude inventories increase as supply has been rising over past few weeks. Crude...

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The U.S. Home Sales Slow Down

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 28 October 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. existing home sales slows down as payroll drops in pessimism. Market expects tapering will be delayed in November as U.S. economy weakens again. Japan's core consumer prices rise for a fourth month but in-line with expectation. German Ifo Business climate slides for a second month below median forecast and causes jittery in Euro's bullish sentiment.

The U.S. existing home sales slid in September for the first time in 3 months as purchases dropped 1.9 percent to 5.29 million annual rates. Non-farm payroll for September rose 148,000 after followed a revised 193,000 gain in August. Unemployment rate dropped to lowest record since end 2008 at 7.2 percent.

The Dollar index declined to 8-month low record at near to 79.00 levels after the U.S. federal government shut down for 17 days. Economy fails...

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The US Ends Government Shutdown

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 21 October 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. lifts its shutdown after closing the government partially for 17 days. The U.S. currency weakens and triggers demands in metal commodities. Debt ceiling has been restated to 7 February while Congress has to put the borrowing limit under the benchmarks of USD16.7 trillion. U.K. consumer prices and retail sales grow and push pound higher on fundamental recovery.

Last week, there were few economic data on the release as the market watched closely on the final decision of U.S. lawmakers. The Congress reached an agreement on very last minute to re-open the government on full scale. Debt ceiling has been pushed forward to next year 7 February as alternative income measures will be used to equate the debt issance.

The U.S. jobless claims dropped 15,000 to 358,000 in the week ended 12...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 Oct 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. government re-opens its operation and Dollar weakens to 8 month’s low record. Gold spikes up to above 1320.00 levels while Crude recovers little. The increasing inventories of Crude oil are suppressing the demands and market prices have been toying at 100.00 benchmarks last week. China picks up 7.8 percent in Q3 growth after past 2 quarters of declines. Asia stocks climbed on Friday before weekend.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded in constriction from 101.00 – 102.00 ranges on Friday. The market erased losses made on prior day after China reported growth in Q3. This week, we foresee the market will be based on 100.00 supports and might move into technical recovery. Resistance may be tested at R1 – 103.00 and R2 – 104.00 depending on fundamental factors. However, beware of the bears breaking beneath 100.00 psychological levels...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 Oct 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. government remains shutdown and becomes worrisome to many bilateral partners that this may risk global recession. Commodity markets in Gold and Crude are literally waiting for good news if the U.S. Congress is able to begin negotiation and reach an agreement to raise debt limit ceiling. However, prices began to fall towards weekend as traders turned disappointed to silence among U.S lawmakers.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading between 101.00 – 104.00 regions for past few days before weekend. The market is well supported above 100.00 benchmarks for the time being but the ease for Syria crisis has put off buying interest. We reckon the forthcoming re-operation of U.S. government will lead to price jump in Crude demands. Technically, piercing above 104.00 resistances will carry potential to reach 108.00 levels again.

Gold

Gold prices slid from 1330.00 top...

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The U.S. Shutdown Risks Global Recession

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 14 October 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. government remains partially shut since 1 October and many emerging countries are worried of global recession from this political impasse. Global stock markets have been down and only bounced on last 2 days before weekend when U.S. Congress said negotiation might begin. U.K. factory output and construction decline and drag pound from the recent height.

The U.S. released few data last week due to shutdown in Commerce Department. Jobless claims surged 66,000 in the week ended 5 October to 374,000 and made highest record in past 6 months. On Thursday and Friday, DJIA recovered about 400 points after Congress lawmakers moved towards meeting for reaching an agreement to raise debt limit ceiling.

Janet Yellen has been nominated to be next FED governor from January. Emerging markets from South Korea to Brazil...

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