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Dow Jones Climbs above 21,000 for the First Time

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 06 March 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. weekly claims drop to 44-year low record. President Trump delivers his first speech to U.S. Congress and lifts Dow Jones to historical high. Japan stays weak in inflation prices. U.K. poises for growth in housing demand from approvals and construction index.

The U.S. orders for durable goods rose significantly in January by 1.8 percent, while core orders excluding transport equipment shrank 0.2 percent. Pending home sales dropped unexpectedly by 2.8 percent in January, lowest in a year record, compared to revised 0.8 percent gains in December.

The prelim GDP in U.S. economy gained 1.9 percent in final quarter and below forecast. Chicago manufacturing index rose to 57.4 in February, highest in 3-month record. Another report on Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reports the manufacturing index gained to 57.7...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 06 March 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices reached USD1263.00 /oz high last week and fell for profit-taking. Market is moving mixed sentiment after President Trump’s speech has created wide division of argument among U.S. politicians. This week, we foresee the trend should be supported at USD1220.00 /oz region and moves sideways but capped below USD1250.00 /oz resistance. Tight range will be expected though some demand will continue to be firm. Breaking below USD1220.00 /oz will begin new correction back to USD1200.00 /oz level.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices edge slightly lower last week but overall range was constricted from USD52.00 – USD55.00 /barrel region. Russia and Saudi that lead the OPEC group have promised to implement global supply cut by 1.8 million barrels per day since 2 months ago. On the other hand, U.S. shale drillers have started...

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America Improves in Housing Sales

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 27 February 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S homes sales rise in optimism amid caution of possible rate hike. The U.S. Treasury Secretary aims to implement tax reform before August. Net borrowing of U.K. public sector shrinks in slower pace while business investment falls.

Markit reports the U.S. manufacturing index expands to 54.3 after revised 55.0 gains in January. FED policymakers are prone to rate hike in March meeting.

The U.S. existing home sales hit 10-year high record in January by increasing 5.69 million. Another separate report on new home sales rose 555,000 units in January compared to 535,000 in December.

American weekly claims rose to 244,000 in the week ended 18 February. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says that he wants to see "very significant" tax reform passed before Congress' August recess.

In Japan, manufacturing index...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 27 February 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dow Jones benchmark scaled higher on Friday and closed at new historical high at 20,821 levels. President Trump fires at China by calling Grand Champion of currency manipulator but has been rebuffed by China’s Foreign Ministry. On Friday Gold prices climbed amid fear of uncertainty to 3-month high while Crude poised in price stability.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices moved in little tight range around USD54.00 /barrel region last week. Effective supply cut by OPEC members has been countered by an increased production in U.S. shale oil. Technically, we preset the range parameter from 52.00 – 55.00 in coming week while waiting to observe a breakaway. No clue for the trend forecast until we see the movement in Dollar or new announcement in global oil output for February.

Gold

Gold prices closed at USD1257.00...

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Global Markets Analysis – 20 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

20.02.2017 周一 油脂类商品下跌加速赶底

今天2月20日周一,是美国总统纪念日,美盘停盘一天 ,无交易。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,在上周五盘面上长阴K线急跌,盘中下跌加速迹象明显,内盘商品期货市场利空情绪蔓延(H7N9禽流感),今天周一早盘,期价低开高走小阳K线表现,当前油脂类商品短线下探寻底过程进行中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,受上周五整体油脂商品市场利空情绪影响,马盘毛棕榈油跳空低开低走,期价下跌幅度增大,今天周一盘中期价稍有止跌,恐慌情绪稍有缓解,但仍未出现明显的整理结束信号出现,恐在周五阴K线右下角仍需震荡点时间。

小结:上周五美豆油长阴K线急跌探底,短线超跌迹象开始显现,内盘马盘油脂商品追随性跟随,虽然有部分超卖迹象,但在美盘未出现明显的止跌信号前,我们不建议低位多单跟进(保守一些),等待美盘开盘后的具体走势指引。具体操作上:前期被套多单持仓不动,不建议空单追进,也不建议新多单进场抄底,我们再多观望一下美盘开盘后的具体表现(美盘豆油下挫整理 已经非常靠近下边轨支撑位置了)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil candlestick registered a low on Friday, indicating a sharp short-term decline, as China and Malaysia oils follow suit.
• Although there is some sign of overselling, we advise against entering long position before technical indicators suggest a stop to the decline US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders whose long positions were trapped by the downtrend are not advised to go short to pursue the downtrend, nor recommended to add long position. Instead, we shall observe the performance of the US market...

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Inflation Seen in Global Large Economies

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 20 February 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. reveals inflation signal in consumer and producer prices while Federal Reserve (FED) chair hints imminent rate hike. China also reports better inflation on annualized rate. U.K. shows higher consumer prices amid dropping claimant counts. British earnings stabilize with unemployment unchanged.

The U.S. producer prices rose 0.6 percent in January on monthly basis and twice the forecast, showing highest record in past 7 months. Federal Reserve (FED) Yellen comments that rate hike should be timed ahead instead of delaying too long. The U.S. overnight lending rates has been maintained at near to zero for 7 years and have raised twice since then.

The U.S. mortgage delinquencies for final quarter on home loans was reported at 4.80 percent and higher the Q3 at 4.52 percent. Consumer prices grew 0.6 percent...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 20 February 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Dow Jones benchmark closed at historical high 20,624.00 region on Friday while USDX trended firm at 101.00 area. The meeting between President Trump and PM Abe has turned out to be friendly and iron out worries of investors. Yen strengthens a little before weekend as investors reckon Trump still favors weaker Dollar against Yen. Gold and Silver still move amid strong demand.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices has been trading in flat range from USD51.50 – USD54.00 /barrel for many week. Last week, market sentiment remained status-quo and investors are observing the increasing reserve in U.S. inventories. This week, we reckon same range will be targeted unless we see unexpected movement in Dollar Index trend or unforeseen news from OPEC members.

Gold

Gold prices topped USD1244.00 /oz level again last week but failed to...

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Dow Jones Benchmark Climbs to New High

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 13 February 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. trade deficit nears to highest in 4 years while Dow Jones market closes at all tie high again. China jumps in trade surplus amid economic expansion. Germany maintains steady growth in small industrial production but large manufacturers shrink.

The U.S. trade deficit in December fell 3.2 percent to USD44.2 billion, almost highest since 2012. Weekly jobless claims dropped to 234,000 as of end 4 February and to 43-year low record.

The U.S. prelim consumer confidence filed by University of Michigan rises to 95.7 in current month. Dow Jones benchmark closed at 20,269 on Friday and maintains as historical record high.

China’s Caixin services index grew to 53.1 in January, lower than forecast but still signalling growth above 50.0 benchmark. Another major report reveals the national trade surplus expanded...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 13 February 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The U.S. government among some cities are still fighting against the Presidential order on travel ban to 7 Muslim countries. Japan’s Prime Minister Abe is visiting U.S. for discussing trade policy with President Trump. Precious metals have been trading firm while Crude prices whipsaws in sideways. Increasing oil inventories in U.S. storage caused a dip in Crude prices early last week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices dipped down before middle last week but range trading was still constricted largely from 51.00 – 54.00 region. Towards weekend closing, market recovered after the OPEC reported supply cut in January at 1 million barrels per day. We predict the range will remain status-quo for coming week unless the new force could lead a breakout beyond the aforementioned range.

Gold

Gold prices topped off 1245.00 high and profit-taking...

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American Payroll Grows and Lifts Dow

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 06 February 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. increases in payroll and lifts Dow’s closing above 20,000 level. Federal Reserve and central banks in Japan and U.K. stays unchanged in monetary policy. China grows in manufacturing.

The U.S. pending homes sales were up 1.6 percent in December from a year ago, despite the interest moved up in mortgage loans. Personal spending rose 0.5 percent after gaining 0.2 percent in November.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence expands to 111.8 in January, falling off 113.3 revised in last month. Another report on manufacturing index hit 56 in January, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from December. Reading above 50 benchmark signals expansion and growing for 92nd consecutive month.

Construction spending for December contracted 0.2 percent and down from 0.9 percent growth in previous month. FED chair...

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