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American Non-Farm Payroll Surprises Market

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 5 May 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US shows growth in economic recovery generally while supported by the huge payroll increase. Federal Reserve (FED) Yellen assures of low interest rates amid tapering progress. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda refrains from putting up new stimulus but reassures of inflation growth. On the other hand, European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi assures of further easing if necessary though it may not be needed now.

The US pending home sales index rose 3.4 percent in March, highest in past 3 years and making first gain in 9 months. Another report filed by Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 54.9, the strongest so far this year, after gained 53.7 in prior month.

The US consumer spending climbed 0.9 percent in March after gained 0.5 percent previously. Data showed it was...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 5 May 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold and Crude prices spiked on Friday during lunch hours in Chicago session. Tension in Ukraine crisis punted on stock prices after violence erupted in Ukraine and lifted the metal and energy commodities out of fear. Non-farm payroll reported by US Labor Department surprised markets by 288,000 new jobs in April. This might give FED policymakers more room to remove stimulus readily till end of the year as mentioned by Yellen. However, interest rate raise remains as concern among investors despite reassured by FED Yellen of keeping low rates to ensure recovery.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices created new monthly low at 98.75 levels last week before bouncing higher on Friday to close above 100.00 benchmarks. This week, we reckon the market will be well supported at 99.00 areas in case of additional testing. Technically,...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 28 April 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold prices rose on Friday and closed at 1303.00 regions as Dow Jones fell 40 points. War tension in eastern Ukraine put yellow metals on alert as short-covering stepped into market. Crude prices declined on Friday as crude inventories expanded last week and also entailing the falling equities. American housing demands remain weak in recovery as unemployment struggles amid stimulus withdrawal planned by FED policymakers.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices fell on Friday after equities dropped. Market closed at 100.57 but resistance has seen emerging at 102.00 areas. This week, we expect the market to remain weak in demand if no further rising tension occurs in Ukraine. The market is prone to liquidate at 99.00 support areas before bargain-hunting appears. Observe the resistance at 102.00 – 102.30 areas as breaking above here may re-visit 104.00...

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Global Markets Analysis – 27 April 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周日 交易清淡 区间震荡的一周

本周油脂类商品走势信号混乱,毫无可圈可点之处,整体处于区间震荡走势。 5个交易日中,无论是大陆内盘油脂商品还是马盘毛棕榈油,期价上下震荡而整体变化却不大,没有丝毫的明确信号。对于我们交易者来说, 不怕它涨也不怕它跌,就怕它没技术信号产生 更没有盘口语言提示,对于此种现象无论是从写报告角度还是具体操作角度,都是非常无奈的。 对于本周毫无新意的市场走势,期价上下震荡而最终仍保持原地踏步的行情,实在无话可说。

对于美盘豆油来说,经过4天主动回落,周四时候小阳红盘报收短暂止跌企稳,周五晚间再次红盘上涨报收,是否短线企稳,再次挑战前高,需要下周具体走势给出确认,当前无法给出明确技术指引。

综述: 本周油脂商品走势平淡 ,成交萎缩,期价区间震荡。对于这种无奈行情,实在无更多的话可说, 当技术信号混乱时候,我们能做的只能是观望, 观望的区别仅仅在于无仓的场外观望, 已经持有接盘多单的场内观望。 操作上持仓不动,以静制动方式对待此种情况。没有更好的良策。密切关注美盘下周的表现对整体油脂市场的指引。 心理承受差的朋友, 可于上方40天线压力处适量减持多单。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental...

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China’s Manufacturing Remains Flat

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 28 April 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US housing market remains in weak sentiment while orders for durable goods rise. Recovery in American economy reveals mixed performance. China reports flat growth in manufacturing and dampens overall stock markets. The European currencies are firm as economic data shows strong track records.

The US existing home sales declined for a third time in March when it fell 0.2 percent to a 4.59 million annual rates, the lowest level since July 2001. Another report on new home sales unexpectedly dropped 14.5 percent to 384,000 annualized pace, lower than median forecast and signaled housing recovery running out of steam.

Weekly jobless claims filed by Americans rose 24,000 to 329,000 in the period ended April 19, highest in 6 months' record. Core durable goods rose 2.5 percent in March and highest since November.

China's...

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FED Chief Reassures Low Interest Rates

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 21 April 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US Federal Reserve chief reiterates on maintaining low interest rates to ensure recovery track. Japan faces tough road ahead as confidence declines amid tax rise. Market investors lose optimism after no stimulus was mentioned by Kuroda. UK reports on falling unemployment that indicates good recovery.

The US retail sales jumped 1.1 percent in March and above expectation, after advancing 0.7 percent in prior month. Inflation measured by consumer prices accelerated 0.2 percent in March versus prior month of 0.1 percent gain.

The US building permits grew at 990,000 annualized rates in March and almost in-line with median forecast. Weekly jobless claims increased 2,000 to 304,000 in the week ended April 12 from a revised 302,000 in prior period that was the lowest since September 2007.

Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen spoke about policymakers...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 April 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The WTI Crude prices surged due to civil war broke out in Ukraine. Crude inventories rose to 10 million barrels in the week ended 12 April by EIA report but posed no effect in pressing on Crude prices. Surprisingly, Gold prices behaved weak last week as flight of funds were believed to have driven into US equities and Dollar that sold off yellow metals. FED Yellen reassured of low interest rates to lead the road of economic recovery while policymakers will focus in bringing down the unemployment for stimulating growth.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed at 104.50 levels for a short week on last Thursday. The market is prone to create a double-top formation at 105.22 levels in coming week. Technically, we reckon that the trend will sit well on 103.00 supports and piercing...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 April 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The US DJIA dropped 143 points on Friday after US producer prices rose 0.5 percent in March at best record for past 4 years. FED policymakers assured after FOMC meeting of low interest rates failed to impress market investors in supporting Dow Jones sentiments. Gold rebounded to 1320.00 regions after Dollar receded towards weekend. Crude inventories rose 4.0 million barrels on weekly report and put a lid at 104.00 levels for time being. This week, market investors will be observing to FED Yellen and BOJ governor Kuroda speak of their monetary policy that will influence the direction of Dollar and Yen.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices reached 104.44 highs last week amid Russia-Ukraine tension. The rising crude inventories helped to cap the energy prices but the sentiment for coming week will be under tight observations...

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Pound Surges as UK Economy Strengthens

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 14 April 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US stocks fall despite being assured of low interest rates by FED meeting. Stronger economic data rise worries among investors that stimulus withdrawal will expedite. China shows stronger inflation amid contraction in import/export trades. Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged as recovery picks up as expected.

The US consumer borrowing rose more than forecast in February. Credit advanced USD16.5 billion and exceeded forecast while non-revolving credit gained in automobiles, schools etc. Another report on weekly jobless claims slid 32,000 to 300,000 in the week ended April 5, the least since May 2007 that signaled picking up in hiring.

American producer prices rose 0.5 percent in March after declined 0.1 percent in prior month. Core prices gained 0.6 percent and above median forecast. The better-than-expected figures put pressure on Dow Jones benchmarks...

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American Payroll Gives Better Outlook

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 7 April 2014

Fundamental Outlook

The US trade deficits widens while jobless claims also rise. However, monthly US payroll shows gains in new jobs and triggers stimulus ease. Japan begins higher sales tax in April amid market expectation of slowdown in Q2. European Central Bank (ECB) remains interest rate unchanged even after Euro inflation recedes.

The US Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index increased to 53.7 in March from prior month 53.2. On back to back, the non-manufacturing index from same institution rose to 53.1 from 51.6 in February. Another report on trade deficit widened in February by 7.7 percent to USD42.3 billion, the biggest since September, from the prior month's USD39.3 billion.

American weekly jobless claims rose 16,000 to 326,000 in the period ended March 29 vs. prior week 310,000. Before the weekend, non-farm payroll rose 192,000...

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