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The US Ends Government Shutdown

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 21 October 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. lifts its shutdown after closing the government partially for 17 days. The U.S. currency weakens and triggers demands in metal commodities. Debt ceiling has been restated to 7 February while Congress has to put the borrowing limit under the benchmarks of USD16.7 trillion. U.K. consumer prices and retail sales grow and push pound higher on fundamental recovery.

Last week, there were few economic data on the release as the market watched closely on the final decision of U.S. lawmakers. The Congress reached an agreement on very last minute to re-open the government on full scale. Debt ceiling has been pushed forward to next year 7 February as alternative income measures will be used to equate the debt issance.

The U.S. jobless claims dropped 15,000 to 358,000 in the week ended 12...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 21 Oct 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. government re-opens its operation and Dollar weakens to 8 month’s low record. Gold spikes up to above 1320.00 levels while Crude recovers little. The increasing inventories of Crude oil are suppressing the demands and market prices have been toying at 100.00 benchmarks last week. China picks up 7.8 percent in Q3 growth after past 2 quarters of declines. Asia stocks climbed on Friday before weekend.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded in constriction from 101.00 – 102.00 ranges on Friday. The market erased losses made on prior day after China reported growth in Q3. This week, we foresee the market will be based on 100.00 supports and might move into technical recovery. Resistance may be tested at R1 – 103.00 and R2 – 104.00 depending on fundamental factors. However, beware of the bears breaking beneath 100.00 psychological levels...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 14 Oct 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. government remains shutdown and becomes worrisome to many bilateral partners that this may risk global recession. Commodity markets in Gold and Crude are literally waiting for good news if the U.S. Congress is able to begin negotiation and reach an agreement to raise debt limit ceiling. However, prices began to fall towards weekend as traders turned disappointed to silence among U.S lawmakers.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have been trading between 101.00 – 104.00 regions for past few days before weekend. The market is well supported above 100.00 benchmarks for the time being but the ease for Syria crisis has put off buying interest. We reckon the forthcoming re-operation of U.S. government will lead to price jump in Crude demands. Technically, piercing above 104.00 resistances will carry potential to reach 108.00 levels again.

Gold

Gold prices slid from 1330.00 top...

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The U.S. Shutdown Risks Global Recession

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 14 October 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. government remains partially shut since 1 October and many emerging countries are worried of global recession from this political impasse. Global stock markets have been down and only bounced on last 2 days before weekend when U.S. Congress said negotiation might begin. U.K. factory output and construction decline and drag pound from the recent height.

The U.S. released few data last week due to shutdown in Commerce Department. Jobless claims surged 66,000 in the week ended 5 October to 374,000 and made highest record in past 6 months. On Thursday and Friday, DJIA recovered about 400 points after Congress lawmakers moved towards meeting for reaching an agreement to raise debt limit ceiling.

Janet Yellen has been nominated to be next FED governor from January. Emerging markets from South Korea to Brazil...

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The U.S. Shuts Down in Political Impasse

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 7 October 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. government shuts down due to deadlock of discussion in raising budget debt limit. Japan announces tax raise plan and new stimulus at the same time but fails to perk up investors' confidence. Yen still rises despite Tankan's report showed confidence in large manufacturers. European Central Bank remains key interest rates unchanged but will prepare to act further if needed to ensure smooth recovery.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management reports its factory index rose to 56.2 in September, the strongest since April 2011. Another service index from the same institution declined to a 3-month low 54.4 from August 58.6. Jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 308,000 in the week ended 28 September with lesser filings.

On 1 October, The U.S. Congress hit political impasse that shut down its partial government after...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 7 Oct 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. government shuts down after 17 years and investors reckon this opportunity as bargain hunting season in equities and commodity markets. No report was released on non-farm payroll on Friday due to non-operation in U.S. Commerce Department. Gold prices have been swinging in uncertain sentiment after it recovered from 1277.00 bottoms during middle last week. Crude prices lifted higher on Friday after Tropical Storm Karen swept into Gulf of Mexico and pushed into U.S. Coast.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded slightly higher on Friday and closed at 103.80 levels. We reckon the market needs to break above 104.60 resistances in coming week in order to initiate new bullish trend. In fact, piercing above 104.60 is a potential sign to reach 108.00 targets again if Tropical Storm Karen persists in the Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, the...

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The U.S. Government May Shut Down

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 September 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. jobless claims continue to reduce while growth expands. However, the federal budget dry-up may implicate shut down in U.S. government due to political impasse in raising the debt limit. Japan prepares to announce the new tax-levy plan next week. Britain has shown steady recovery from rising consumer spending.

The U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence index declined to 79.7 in September from prior month 81.8. Another report by S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 12.4 percent from July 2012, matching the median forecast.

American orders for core durable goods were down 0.1 percent in August against a rising expectation. The weekly U.S. jobless claims dropped 5,000 to 305,000 ended 21 September.

New home sales rose 7.9 percent in August to a 421,000 annualized pace, almost in-line with median forecast as...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 29 Sep 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. is reaching its debt limit in federal government again and may face shut down from 1 October unless Congress acts before the deadline. Japan's Prime Minister will announce his new tax-levy on 1 October as well which could be affecting the direction of Yen. The Crude prices soften as Syria crisis winds down and fear of U.S. budget impasse may hurt growth. Market traders stay sideline and wait to act on coming week upon the major fundamental outcome.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices were gradually stepping down in prices last week due to ease in war-tension. The market has much buying interest lining up at 101.50 regions should the market drop in early coming week. We foresee the potential rebound might spring up to 105.00 as our reasonable target while making the short-covering phase. However, risk needs to...

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Bernanke Confirms Stimulus Continuity

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 23 September 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke surprises the market by reinforcing his speech to maintain the monthly USD85 Billion in bond-purchase program. Europe stays in dormant mode as Germany wades into national Election. Britain moves in steadfast economic pace despite analysts anticipate correction of Pound may begin soon.

The U.S. consumer-price increased 0.1 percent in august. The data was below forecast and least in 3 months after July gained 0.2 percent. Claims for jobless benefits climbed 15,000 to 309,000 in the week ended 14 September, from a revised 294,000 in the prior period.

Another separate report on U.S. current-account deficit narrowed in the second quarter to the lowest in almost 4 years. The economists believe the export rise has helped to shrink the gap by 5.7 percent to USD98.9 billion in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 23 Sep 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. Federal Reserve frustrated the market after mid last week with contradictory statement. Chairman Bernanke reinforced on Thursday after FOMC meeting that policymakers will not taper stimulus from the monthly USD85 Billion bond-purchase program. On Friday, the FED Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard cited that policymakers may trim some bond buying in October. Global stocks and majority commodities surged after Bernanke’s statement but plunged on late Friday’s session. Dow Jones fell 185 points at the weekend closing bell and Gold plunged about USD40 ranges.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed lower on weekly basis at 104.75 due to Bullard’s statement on Friday. The market has been sliding after mid-week due to increasing supply in Libya and ease of war-tension in Syria. This week, we foresee the trend may head down lower to 102.00 regions should the...

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