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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 17 June 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. job market continues to improve with reducing jobless claims falling in continual streak. The Japanese Yen rises sharply against the Dollar after the Bank of Japan held on to monetary policy unchanged. Market investors expect more stimulus will be added in the execution of “Abeconomics” by the Prime Minister in order to sustain further recovery. Unfortunately, USD/JPY prices have dropped 5 Yen value from around 99.00 to 94.00 regions that caused the Nikkei 225 Stock Average Index to plunge almost 1,200 points throughout the week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices escalated on Friday after the unexpected dip in USDX trend. The market closed at 97.87 but still capped below 98.00 resistances. This week, it is a challenge for the crude prices because piercing above 98.00 resistances may go for the 100.50 targets. However, a reversal in USDX trend...

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Yen Jumps, Nikkei Tumbles

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 17 June 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. budget deficits widened while job creations continued to improve in optimism. Japan's equities weakened, in retrospect to the rapid rise of the Yen after Bank of Japan (BOJ) held its monetary policy unchanged. The U.K. housing demand recovered to a three year record high and market analysts believed the Bank of England (BOE) will follow suit to U.S. policy in adding more stimulus.

The U.S. budget deficit widened in May after government's spending increased 10 percent from a year ago. Outlay exceeded revenue by USD138.7 billion, compared to USD124.6 billion shortfall in May 2012. Jobless claims fell 12,000 to 334,000 in the week ended 8 June, better than median forecast.

The May U.S. producer-price index which measures wholesale prices rose 0.5 percent after falling 0.7 percent in April, while core prices...

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The U.S. Increases Payrolls amid Recovery

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 10 June 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. manufacturing and services index move in mixed sentiments. Jobless benefits claims fall while the payrolls jump higher in optimism. Dow Jones recovers from the recent correction inversely to decline of Japanese Yen. The U.K. reports modest recovery in housing demands and trade deficits narrow down amid higher exports.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management's factory index slid to 49 in May, at almost 4-year low record and from prior month 50.7 reading. From the same institute, service index climbed to 53.7 from 53.1 in April, indicating moderate recovery in non-manufacturing sector.

Due to rising stock values and improving job markets, household net worth and non-profit groups increased by USD3 Trillion from January through March, or 4.5 percent from the previous three months, to USD70.3 Trillion. Consumer borrowing accelerated in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report–10 June 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. non-farm payrolls grew 175,000 in May and above expectation. Dow Jones Average Index (DJIA) gained 204 points while Gold fell from flight-out of funds. Crude prices climbed higher from weaker Dollar strength and also due to supply cut in Crude inventories as reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA). Both European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) held their monetary policies unchanged on last Thursday meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi says policymakers foresee recovery will take place at the end of year in euro-economy.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed at 96.20 regions on Friday after reversing up from 91.05 bottoms. This week, we reckon the trend may stay strong but will be resisted at 98.00 tops for profit-taking. The range is expected to move from 93.00 – 98.00 levels for potential consolidation. The strength of DJIA...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 3 June 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. market is seen with some worries of withdrawal in stimulus program as the 10-year bond yield rises to 2.3 percent. Dow Jones Average Index (DJIA) dropped 208 points on Friday at closing as profit-taking arises. However, China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.8 in May vs. prior month 50.6 and could support the Asia markets in the coming early week. Gold and Crude prices dipped on Friday as USDX reversed in recovery mode.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed at 91.97 on Friday and below the EMA200 support. This week, the market may initiate a new selling trend with resistance capped at 93.00 – 93.50 regions before taking a slide. The firmness in USDX will affect the demand for commodities including Crude products. Technically, we reckon the support at lie at 90.00 levels for the time being and...

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Dow Jones Falls as Stimulus Trim Expected

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 3 June 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dow Jones market fell due to expectation of trim­ming stimulus by policymakers. Treasury yields rose as 10-year bonds have been declining amid a stabilised recovery in jobs and housing demands.

Meanwhile, the euro and pound reversed up in technical recovery after falling for weeks. German yields rose in tandem with the US yield curve while the UK saw a probable recovery this year after it jumped out from a triple-recession.

The US consumer confidence jumped to 76.2 in May from a revised 69 gain last month, mak­ing a record high in the past five years. Consumer spending fell 0.2 per cent in April while personal incomes were unchanged and prices dropped by the most in more than four years.

The US government debts slid 1.8 per cent in the month of May...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 27 May 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The U.S. reports recovery in new home sales and existing home sales for April that lifted the market sentiment. FED Chairman Ben S. Bernanke says a premature withdrawal in stimulus will hamper overall recovery and plummets USDX from 34-month high at 84.49 tops. After mid last week, Gold prices reversed up while Crude traders short covered upon his statement. Amid some corrections in stock markets, Asia equities have been affected more due to slowdown in China's manufacturing for April that declined for the first time in 7 months.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices took a quick dip below 92.30 last week that was in-line with EMA200 supports. On Thursday, the market bounced up from 92.21 bottoms after Bernanke's statement and eventually closed at 93.90 for the weekend,. This week, we reckon the market is lightly prone to be bullish with...

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China Causes Kneejerk in Asia Stocks

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 27 May 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing prices recover moderately with buyer's interest returning to markets. China announces a decline in manufacturing data that has pulled down Asia equities. On Thursday, Japan Nikkei 225 Average Index fell over 700 points in tandem with rising yields. Britain sees moderate growth recovery after GDP rose in Q1.

The U.S. existing home sales increased 0.6 percent in April to an annual rate of 4.97 million, the most since November 2009. New home sales also was up 2.3 percent to an annualized pace of 454,000 homes from 444,000 in March. Demands in houses signal the confidence of investors in taking advantage of low mortgage rates and historical low prices.

The weekly jobless claims slid 23,000 to 340,000 in the week ended May 18. Orders for U.S. durable goods rose 3.3...

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Dow Jones Closes at Record High

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 20 May 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. stock markets triumph to new historical highs after leading indicators rebounded in April. Other data including jobless benefits and inflation measure are weak in U.S. economy. Japan's economy expanded in Q1 and Abe's government is favored by investors for leading the economic recovery. Euro area sees a jump in exports despite the economy has recorded a consecutive decline for six quarters as of end of March.

The U.S. retail sales advanced 0.1 percent in April. Import-price index slid 0.5 percent after followed 0.2 percent decline in March. Another separate report shows industrial production dropped 0.5 percent in April by worst decline in past 8 months.

The U.S. Commerce Department reports factory gate-price shed 0.7 percent after falling 0.6 percent in March. Another data that measures inflation benchmark reported consumer prices down...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 20 May 2013

A guest post written by DAR Wong

The Dow Jones Average Index (DJIA) closed at new historical high on Friday at 15,354 levels. The market was pushed up by leading indicators that showed 0.6 percent gain for the outlook in coming 3-6 months. Japan shows recovery growth in Q1 by 3.5 percent annualized gains and rising Nikkei stocks have been pulled up by weakening Yen. The Eurozone data are pretty neutral due to a consecutive decline in GDP for sixth quarter in Q1. However, exports rose 2.8 percent in March with trade surplus EUR18.7 billion.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices rose on Friday due to gains in leading indicators despite new heights in Dollar rise. This week, we predict the trend will be capped by 98.00 resistances while selling interest will begin to emerge at 97.50 areas. Keep a lookout for the weekly Crude oil inventories...

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