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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 10 July 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices still stuck in a bearish pattern after it failed to stand above USD47 /barrel for more than 2 days last week. The trend is still waiting for more fundamental news before leading a new directional headway. This week, range is expected from USD43 – USD47 /barrel amid sideways swing. Rising Dollar and geo-political risk in Middle East over Qatar dispute are in taut situation for an impending new trend in Crude trend.

Gold

Gold prices closed below USD1220 /oz on Friday and shocked many long traders. This week, we foresee the trend may re-test USD1200 /oz to wipe out the long positions before short-covering. Currently, market pattern shows a bear-prone sign with immediate resistance building up at USD1230 /oz area. Hence, expected range may swing from USD1200 –...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 3 July 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices rebound back to USD46 /barrel and project strong recovery. However, we remain consistent that the trend may just trade sideways from USD42 – USD46 /barrel for time being as short-covering is yielding for profit. Only crossing above USD46 /barrel level will induce the probability of price recovery as market sentiment indicates growing demand. The fear of Qatar’s armed conflict could set the trend into USD46 – USD50 /barrel in coming week.

Gold

Gold prices dipped to USD1240 /oz before weekend as all three major pairs in USD/JPY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD rose last week. Technically, we presume Monday’s closing price will be very crucial as the settlement will indicate a continual dive to USD1230 /oz or a reversal in yellow metal. Literally, we have identified support at USD1240 /oz...

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U.K. Commence BREXIT That Might Hurt Economy

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 3 July 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. core durable goods and home sales improve. FED official comments job data and inflation are still weak and should not rush into rate hike. Germany keeps in strong growth pace while European Central Bank President Draghi emphasizes on supportive stimulus to aid recovery. U.K. commences BREXIT procedure that may drive an impact to economy.

The U.S. orders for core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, rose 0.1 percent after submerged into negative zone for past 2 months. Conference Board of consumer confidence rises to 118.9 in June and higher than revised 117.6 in May.

The U.S. pending home sales contracted 0.8 percent in May and improved from minus 1.7 percent in previous month. FED central banker Kashkari comments slow growth in jobs and low inflation are dampening...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 26 June 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices are very bearish on week-chart and might decline further this week. Technically, there is not much reason for a high rebound except some short-covering in early this week. Resistance is expected to emerge at USD45 /barrel while downside target is still open to test USD40 /barrel level. We suggest long traders should wait patiently for the week-chart to reveal reversal bar before setting up your new position.

Gold

Gold prices reached our predicted low at USD1240 /oz before turned up last week. Market is bound to recover in coming week but with some limitation. We foresee the support will emerge at USD1245 – USD1250 /oz in case of quick drawdown. Potential of ascension to USD1270 /oz is highly possible due to a recovery in technical pattern and rising...

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American Home Sales in Growth Pace

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 26 June 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. current deficits widens on quarterly comparison but home sales maintains growth pace. Germany keeps the manufacturing in steady pace while services shrinks. U.K. still maintains good momentum ahead of BREXIT with net borrowing reduced among public sector.

The U.S. current deficits expanded USD117 billion in Q1 and worse than revised USD114 billion contraction in the quarter ended December. Existing home sales expanded 5.62 million in May and maintained in growth pace, after rose 5.56 million in April.

The American unemployment claims for the week ended 17 June was 241,000 and little changed from past weeks. Another separate report on new homes sales expanded 610,000 in May and higher than revised 593,000 in April.

Japan's trade surplus rose JPY130 million in May and lower than revised JPY160 million in...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 19 June 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have broken the previous support at USD46 /barrel and has turned this region into strong resistance in coming week. Technically, we forecast the bears may dip further to test the USD42 /barrel while possible trap in sideways trend from USD42 – USD46 /barrel range. Global glut remains an issue for completing with Crude prices and focus will turn to Dollar direction for influencing the energy prices.

Gold

Gold prices headed down for correction as we predicted last week. Trend approached the USD1250 /oz before weekend but slowdown in selling activity is noticed. This week, we reckon the trend will be well supported at USD1240 /oz that is confluent with the EMA200 line strongly ambushed with bargain-hunting. Topside resistance is seen at USD1270 /oz for the time being while...

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US FED Hike Rates by 25 BP Again

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 19 June 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest by 25 basis points for the second time this year. Bank of Japan and Bank of England remains unchanged in monetary policy. China maintains growth while in U.K. sees a decline in average earning among the citizens.

The U.S. producer prices stayed flat in May on monthly comparison. Core prices, excluding food and energy, gained 0.3 percent. Another separate report on consumer prices shrank 0.1 percent in May while core prices, excluding food and energy, also rose only 0.1 percent. Both data were below forecast.

American core retail prices, exclude automobiles, shrank 0.3 percent and worst in past 10 months. Weekly claims for jobless benefits dropped to 237,000 in the week ended 10 June and lower than 245,000 in previous week.

Industrial production was...

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U.K. Conservative Party Fails to Secure as Government

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 12 June 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. is facing ordeal as President Trump faces the investigation on his supposed collusion to Russians. European Central Bank is ready to extend stimulus as the package will end in December. U.K. election results in hung parliament after the Conservatives fail to secure majority seats.

The U.S. ISM services index for May expanded to 56.9 and matched forecast. Markit reports the services index rose to 53.8 in May and lower than previous month 54.0. American jobless claims reduced to 245,000 in the week ended 3 June and lower than revised 255,000 in previous week.

The testimony given by ex-FBI director James Comey in the investigation against President Trump might pinpoint Trump’s obstruction to justice. According to Comey, he was asked to halt investigation on Flynn that might be linked...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 12 June 2017

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Yellow metal hit double-top formation last week at USD1296 /oz before market slid. Middle East and UAE countries severe diplomatic ties and transport links with Qatar on last Monday pursuant to its link to Islamist militants like Muslim Brotherhood. Uncertainty arises due to investigation on President Trump and North Korea fires new missile test have injected discomfort into equity market. Precious metals are being sought after as safe haven.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices traded on low edge around USD46 /oz amid light activity as investors distracted to European fundamentals last week. This week, we foresee the Dollar Index (USDX) movement resulting from FOMC meeting will create an impact to Crude trend. Technically, the market may move in tight range from USD45 – USD48 /barrel but the likelihood of driving beneath USD45 /barrel...

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U.S. Withdraws from Paris Climate Treaty

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 05 June 2017

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. President Trump pulls out from Paris Climate Treaty and sparks unhappiness from Eurozone partners. American payroll fails to meet the forecast and reveals growth pace before expectation. Chinese Yuan surges after overnight borrowing rate hikes. Pound falls after survey shows Theresa May might not manage well on BREXIT procedures.

The U.S. personal spending rose 0.4 percent in April and highest in past 4 months. The Conference Board of consumer confidence expanded 117.9 in May and below expectation.

Another separate report on U.S pending home sales contracted 1.3 percent in April and below median forecast. ISM manufacturing index rose 54.9 in May and matched forecast. Weekly claims for the week ended 27 May was 248,000 and higher than consensus.

American non-farm payroll grew 138,000 in May but failed to...

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