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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 February 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The global sentiment on Crude recovery remains uncertain as the NYMEX Sweet Crude Futures on March delivery is going to expire on coming Monday. It closed below USD30.00 /barrel on Friday while traders begin to watch the April performance on next week. Russia and Saudi have agreed to freeze the production and hope to reverse Crude prices upward, despite Iran insists in growing production. Gold prices edged sideways throughout the week with no new directional trend. USDX has been trading steadily from 95.00 - 97.00 regions while holding the commodity from falling further.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices still lingered at USD30.00 /barrel last week due to weak demand. This week, it will be a challenge to see if it can stay above this same benchmark for the whole week before going up...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 15 February 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

As the rout of Credit Default Swap (CDS) risers alarm in European markets, fund flight into precious metals as safe haven. Global equities sink in pessimism amid weak demand for Crude prices. WTI goes down to below USD30/barrel again and worries global investors. USDX weakens as Japanese Yen rises with plunging Nikkei markets.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices closed below 30.00 benchmarks and signals bear trend. It will be important to observe the market for closing above this same benchmarks next week before we could confirm the recovery trend. This week, resistance is identified at 34.00 in case of recovery. The downside is still exposed to 25.00 bottoms in case of further negativity that may come from CDS debts and increasing supply in Middle East.

Gold

Gold prices climbed from 1100.00 just 3 weeks...

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Credit Default Swap Haunts Global Market

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 15 February 2016

Fundamental Outlook

Global equity markets plummet due to resurging fear in euro debt crisis. Credit Default Swap (CDS) in Deutsche Bank climbs to new record high as 2011 and haunts global equities in fear. Federal Reserve chair Yellen addresses concern that moving to negative interest rates might not resolve the economic slowdown. U.K. contracts in manufacturing and retail sales.

The U.S. trade deficit widens as exports fall due to strong Dollar. Trade gap rose 2.7 percent to USD43.4 billion in December while previous month deficit was revised down to USD42.2 billion.

Another separate report on retail sales grew 0.2 percent in January while core retail, excluding automobiles, gained 0.1 percent. Import prices fell on strong dollar and lower crude prices when January index lost 1.1 percent.

Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen...

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Bank of Japan Cuts Interest Rate to Negative

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 01 February 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.Snew home sales rise to 8-year record high amid scepticism while orders for durable goods fall. Bank of Japan cuts interest rate to negative zone for first time in history. U.K. makes smallest growth since 2013.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence expanded 98.1 in January and better than forecast. New home sales rose to 8-year high at 544,000 annualized rates in January as housing prices tumbled. Analysts remain skeptical until they see the February data again as new cooling measures started in November might have backlogged many housing purchases.

American pending home sales grew 0.1 percent in January and better than minus 1.1 percent contraction in previous month. Core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, reduced to minus 1.2 percent after it was revised at par growth...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 01 February 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold traded higher last week as Crude also recovered above USD30.00 per barrel. Ironically, USDX also recovered at near to 100.00 benchmarks at 8-weeks high. The new policy announced by Bank of Japan on negative interest 0.1 percent shocked the market and weakened the Yen by pulling up USDX on Friday. However, we foresee this is only temporary effect and Yen will soon regain strength in coming 1-2 weeks.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude pricesreversed above USD30.00 per barrel for the weekend. This week, we have identified the resistance to be strong at 35.00 and huge opportunity for the trend to fall back. Global supply glut is still bothering the market sentiment and the recovery could be short-lived. We do not recommend holding long positions for too many days in the current up trend.

Gold

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European Central Bank Stresses on New Stimuli if Needed

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 26 January 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S building permit is down while existing home sales make fictitious jump due to backlogged process of mortgage application. European Central Banks holds interest rates unchanged and express affirmation to introduce new stimuli if needed. U.K. sees small rise in inflation from consumer prices and factory gate cost.

The U.S. building permit was reported at 1.23 million in December versus revised 1.8 million in November. Consumer prices contracted 0.1 percent in December while core prices, excluding food and energy, expanded 0.1 percent. Both data are below expectation.

American jobless claims rose to highest since July last year at 293,000 in the week ended 18 January.Existing home sales jumped 14.7 percent in December after 11 percent decline in previous month. Analysts comment there is no real increment in housing market...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 26 January 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude prices recovered from 12-year low after hitting 27.50 bottoms last week. Crude prices settled above USD30 per barrel and relieved global traders from fear of equity plunge. Gold prices continue to poise firm and make its way to 1100.00 benchmarks due to flight-in fund for safe haven. Dow Jones benchmarks caused panic in market during mid-last week after it hit 15,450 lows recorded in August but floated to 16,000 regions for weekend.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices floated above USD30.00 levels for weekend closing. Market tested 12-year low at 27.50 bottoms before crawling up. However, we do not expect rapid recovery yet as resistance is spotted at 33.00 levels. Therefore, we reckon range will be constricted from 27.00 – 33.00 regions in coming week. Breaking above 33.00 may reach 35.00 levels for...

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Crude Dips to 12-year Low before USD30/Barrel

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 18 January 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy stays sluggish despite non-farm payroll grew in December. Crude oil slides to 12-year low beneath USD30 per barrel and drags stock prices down. Eurozone economy remains hawkish while Bank of England keeps status-quo on interest rate decision.

The U.S. unemployment claims rose to 284,000 in the week 9 January and higher than forecast. Core retail prices, excluding automobiles, plunged 0.1 percent in December after previous month was revised at 0.3 percent gains. Producer prices also slid 0.2 percent after rising 0.3 percent in November.

On Friday, U.S. Crude oil plunged to below USD30 per barrel for first time to 12-year low record. Weak demand in energies confirms the global recession and pull down stock prices. Dow Jones benchmarks declined 504 points throughout whole of last week.

China...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 18 January 2016

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Gold traded in mild bullishness last week as same direction in U.S. Dollar index. WTI Crude oil declined as global supply glut continues to threaten demand. Crude prices closed below USD30 /barrel on Friday while hitting 12-year low record. Global stock prices are expected to be flamboyant in coming week as Crude attracts global attention. Dollar index will become main indicator to lead inverse trend to energies.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices broke below the low record in 2009 and stretched down to meet the bottoms of 2004 below USD30 levels. By analysis, we project a possibility to hit 26.00 lows before bargain-hunting emerges. This week, we are uncertain if the bears will descend to our aforementioned target then rebound, or recover first for another decline to be made later. Range for this...

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Global Stock Markets Down in Early January

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 11 January 2016

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management reports manufacturing index in December fell to 48.2 and lower than forecast. Construction spending declined 0.4 percent after gained 0.3 percent gains in November.

A second report released by Institute for Supply Managementon services index grew 55.3 in December and stayed strong above expansion limit 50.0 levels. Trade deficits shrank to USD42.4 billion in November and improved from USD44.6 billion in prior month.

The U.S. unemployment claims dropped to 277,000 in the week ended 2 January, down from 287,000 in previous week probably due to year-end seasons.

The U.S. non-farm payroll in December rose to 292,000 in December unexpectedly and above the forecast. Unemployment rate stays at 5.0 percent. Another report on wholesale inventories dropped 0.3 percent and better the median forecast, signaling rising...

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