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China’s Industrial Production at 7-month High

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations – 19 March 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. consumer prices rise at expected target. Building permits maintain as expected while housing starts fall. China’s industrial production grows fastest in 7 months. Eurozone consumer prices stay stagnated.

The U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in February. Excluding the food and energies, core prices grew 0.2 percent. Both reports matched the forecast.

The U.S. retail prices slid 0.1 percent in February. Excluding transport equipment, core prices rose 0.2 percent but shortfall from expectation. Another report on producer prices expanded 0.2 percent and lower than 0.4 percent in January.

American weekly claims for jobless benefits ended 10 March was at 226,000 and matched forecast. Building permits for

February at 1.30 million and matched expectation. Housing starts fell to 1.24 million compared to 1.33 million in January.

China’s industrial production grew 7.2 percent in February from a year ago, highest in past 7 months. Fixed asset investment made by Government in February grew 7.9 percent after gained 7.2 percent in previous month.

Eurozone consumer prices rose 1.1 percent in February on year basis. Industrial production slid 1.0 percent in January on monthly comparison, worse than consensus.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY is still moving sideways from 105.50 – 107.00 while making consolidation. This week, we expect not much change in market sentiment unless the trend violates beyond the aforementioned range. Risk control is advised in case in case of unforeseen circumstances.

EUR/USD traded near to 1.2250 area last week. Market is slowly narrowing and might attempt 1.2150 final support while waiting for FOMC outcome on this Thursday wee hour. Range is expected to be contained from 1.2150 – 1.2350 region before braking beyond in either direction.

GBP/USD traded in a very tight range last week with no directional trend. This week, we forecast the market will react after mid-week to Dollar value and initiate a new headway. Initial range is expected to move from 1.3850 – 1.4050 region until we see a breakthrough.

Dar Wong

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong.

DAR Wong is a registered fund manager in Singapore with 26 years of global trading experiences. You may reach him at

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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