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Global Markets Analysis – 12 March 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周三 美盘黄豆 豆油开始出现调整

内盘商品市场品种走势分化, 金属类以铜为代表,本周3天来不计成本性狂跌,基本面情况恶化,市场普遍担忧由于中国经济放缓,铜需求减弱,中国某企业在铝上债务违约成为导火索。 并且一度传导到黑色金属以及建材商品上, 螺纹钢 ,玻璃和炭同样出现下跌。化工类橡胶走势则出现探底回升走势,昨天我们提到周一跌停价格没有被封住,周二又出现涨停板,今天在昨天涨停基础上继续上扬,早盘期价再度大涨5.50%,3天累计涨幅已经达到10%左右,该商品探底回升迹象明显。

油脂类商品,昨天低开高走,在主力多头护盘情况下,内盘豆油 棕榈油双双长阳上涨,均创出本轮新高,在美盘昨晚下跌影响下,今天早盘再度低开,整体仍处于高位震荡中,操作上逢高分批次减仓仍建议执行。

马盘毛棕榈油5月,昨天盘中低开高走,可惜晚节未保,见新高2916后,形成冲高回落走势,终盘以带上影线小阴收盘, 该商品上也建议逢高平仓前期多单,利润入袋。

美盘黄豆 豆油昨日晚间,均出现回落态势,特别是昨天提到的美大豆,在吞没形态成立后,技术上出现走坏迹象更为明显,此二品种率先出现回落整理走势,这点要引起我们的注意, 谨防走出美原油前几天的回落下跌走势,(美原油已经提前从高位回落好几天了 )。

小结: 美盘大豆 豆油回落整理出现苗头,恐后期影响到内盘 马盘同类油脂商品上,油脂商品在操作上,我们仍建议波段操作和短线操作者逢高平仓出局来规避回抽确认带来的风险。 对趋势性操作者,这里我们重点和你多说几句, 从中线角度来说,趋势性反弹上涨走势的观点我们不变,但在细节节奏上,我们把这大波趋势性反弹(反转)走势又细化为ABC 3浪结构(也就是3个波段),A波段在不经意间开始出现上涨,延续一段时间后出现加速疯狂动作(就是当前阶段)。 B波段是指在疯狂之后,均线上穿完成后,会出现下跌回落整理,回抽均线来确认第一波上涨可靠性的走势(准备发生)。 C波段是在回抽确认完成后,期价再度反身上涨,达到中线角度的最高点(未发生)。 A—-B—-C三个过程中,若趋势性操作者眼光直接盯的是C波的那个高点,不在乎B波段的回落整理,那此类趋势性操作者就继续持有前期多单吧。 若准备在B波段低点位置从新接回多单的的波段操作者, 那在A波段高点就该多单平仓了,(就是现在这个时候)。 对于短线操作者来说, 技术好的人士可适当逢高做空,做这波B浪回调, 技术差的朋友不建议有此操作动作,多单平仓后,场外观望, 耐心等待后市B波段低点出现后的多单接回的机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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