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Global Markets Analysis – 20 March 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周四 美联储决议利多 美元飙涨

在今天北京时间凌晨2点,美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三(3月19日)公布利率决议,宣布维持0-0.25%基准利率不变,将按照先前速度将量化宽松(QE)政策缩减100亿美元,至每月550亿美元规模,从4月份开始,每月将购买250亿美元抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)和300亿美元国债。

耶伦在美联储决议声明之后举行的新闻发布会上被记者们穷追猛打,被问及“相当长一段时期”究竟是多长的一段时间,耶伦不得不首次做出界定,称“相当长一段时间”可能是六个月左右。

从美联储决议和耶伦的言论分析得出, 美联储缩减QE(宽松货币政策)进行中,并暗示在2015年春季前后,美元有加息可能。 美元指数闻讯随之大幅度暴涨,长阳收盘。

与此同时贵金属美黄金,此前已经2日短暂下跌,昨日晚间在美元飙涨同时,黄金再次下跌,短线技术观察,黄金下行回落整理已经确立,在前期连续上涨之后,下蹲回落寻找下方支撑进行中。

昨晚美盘豆油冲高回落,下行态势延续中。而美大豆却出现了变数,在短暂回落之后,有反身上涨的苗头出现。二者走势分化, 继续关注美大豆后市走势。

大陆内盘油脂昨日盘中有下跌抵抗动作出现,盘中小幅走高,但不足影响短线的下跌回落整理行情的延续, 今天早盘,追随美豆油再次低开低走,期价新低出现,表明回落整理仍在继续进行中。美盘昨天值得一提的是美大豆,内盘今天值得一提的是豆粕9月合约,该品种继昨天上涨之后,今天继续保持上行,豆粕短暂回落后的反身上涨也出现苗头,豆粕追随美大豆走势 豆油追随美豆油走势分化迹象明显。

马来西亚毛棕榈油5 ,昨天盘中也出现抵抗动作,期价小幅高开高走,阳K线收盘。在内盘 美盘豆油下跌影响下,今天马棕榈将追随内盘豆油 棕榈油的走势走低。

小结:油脂类商品(美大豆仍除外)短线下蹲均线回抽确认过程延续中,技术上未出现明显止跌信号,后市仍存在下行风险。操作上波段, 短线操作者空单继续持有,短线仍以疲软看待。趋势操作者仍耐心等待企稳时刻的到来,关注焦点仍放在何处是支撑位?

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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