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Global Market Wrap – 13 December 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周五 油脂类商品跳水

受美国农业部12.12日周四公布大豆 豆油利空数据影响,美盘黄豆连 美豆油昨晚出现下跌走势。

今天周五内盘油脂类商品市场出现新动作了,豆油1405合约本周在连续横盘4天后,今天选择出方向, 向下跳空低开低走,日图表形态完全走坏,短线方向已经转为看空。



马盘毛棕榈油基准2月合约,日技术图表图形略与内盘1405合约豆粕相同。马棕榈油本周连续4天冲高回落,K线形态错列下行,受外围油脂类商品形态走坏影响,低开跳空开盘,下破2600整数关口。12月21日有个向上跳空高开缺口2603 ,今天的低开下破2600, 同样出现“岛型反转”技术形态,令上面16天内持有多单者被套,密切关注该品种能否站回2600以上,并回补缺口。综述以及个人看法:昨天还思考短线节奏方向问题,棕榈油连续在周图表60周均线压力处徘徊迟迟不过,真应了那句老话,久盘必跌。昨天就提示说 留给多头的时间已经不多了,市场今天就选择了我们把概率放在第二位置的向下的方向。既然市场已经选择的短线方向:原趋势操作者多单减半仓, 波段操作者多单全部出局, 短线激进操作者反手日内短空,但空单不过夜。

1. 由于马来西亚毛棕榈油前期技术走势,存在跌4–5天就出现反涨现象,今天又到第5天,主力是否故意洗盘,我们还需要在时间上多一天来验证。
2.中长线我们看多的观点还没有被完全破坏。 仅仅是市场在节奏上有选择第二种向下直接下跌的苗头。我们第一种前期预测观点是先上冲再下跌然后再上涨的“之”字形走势。现在市场给抹去了先上冲,反而选择了概率较低的第二种方式 那必定会出现下跌时间和下跌空间上的出现期价反复现象的发生。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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