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Global Market Wrap – 16 December 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

日周一 长阴过后 期价将会反复




豆油现货价格: 国内散装一级豆油均价为7435元/吨;散装四级豆油均价为7390元/吨;进口毛豆油均价为7217元/吨。

油脂类市场基本面无多大变化,更多承技术性走势主导。在上周五12月13日早盘跳空低开技术破位后,盘中承加速下跌态势,马盘 内盘油脂类均巨阴棒收盘。内盘豆油1405合约短线下跌过快,期价远离均线,期价有反复要求。 内盘棕榈油1405合约 ,上周五下跌日图表60天均线处,该位置正好是原双底技术形态的颈线支撑位置,即8月27日当天位置,期价为6040–6050一线。有技术上期价反复的要求。 马盘毛棕榈油基准2月合约,由于已经连续5天错列下跌,周五更是破位加速下跌,分时技术图表上已经处于超卖状态,所以今天盘中同样有技术上的期价反复要求。


个人看法:马盘 内盘油脂类商品12月13日大幅下跌过速,技术上都存在期价短线上的反复要求,今天盘中期价肯定有反弹现象,也不排除在巨阴棒右下角小阳收盘可能。 所以周五反手做空的短线激进交易者并没建议空单持仓过夜。追涨杀跌方式操作方法不宜使用。做空只能逢阳K线高点做空,今天不适合追空。稳健交易者观望。马盘激进交易者-若今天低开太多,不可追空,反而可少量做多, 做空只能等出现阳k线后。今天内外盘油脂类商品均存在阴棒之后走小阳的K线形态。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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