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Global Market Wrap – 16 January 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周四 油脂类商品短线整体横盘

美元指数前3天快速下跌到60天线位置,并未出现明显下破,受日图表60天线支撑,昨天晚盘又中阳收高, 呈现上有压力下有支撑状态,短线的方向不明朗。

美盘豆油 内盘豆油 棕榈油 马盘毛棕榈油整体都处于下跌过后的横盘整理状态,并且已经持续3—7天不等, 盘口技术语言显示,大幅度的下跌暂且告一段落,仅有止跌现象但反弹迹象却依旧不明显。

相关品种反弹迹象明显的商品仅有美盘黄豆连以及内盘豆粕,其中美黄豆连行情运行节奏也是先下跌然后在横盘5天后,选择了向上反弹突破。 昨天美原油横盘4天后,跳空高开上涨中阳报收,大有加入该类反弹商品的迹象。

小结: 短线来说,油脂类商品中豆类反弹迹象启动明显,油脂类中豆油 棕榈油盘中未见明确动作,仍属于区间性横盘整理状态, 技术上没做出明确的短线方向指引。从中长线角度来说,原长期下降趋势下的筑大底过程变得复杂,行情“反转”的大拐点酝酿时间变得漫长。一句话来说—–目前阶段仍处于长期下降趋势下反转的黎明前夜,在此状况下趋势操作者停止操作。 波段操作者继续场外观望。 短线交易者按震荡行情模式交易,操作重点放在逢高空,逢低买的横盘区间的上下限之间,短线进出。 耐心等待市场给出横盘上下限的突破选择。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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