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Global Market Wrap – 18 February 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周二 期价上扬加速 均线跟随上穿

国内豆油现货市场:截止到昨天,天津四级豆油报价6700元/吨,较前日上涨50元, 山东四级豆油报价6780元/吨,较前日上涨30元,江苏四级豆油报价6680元/吨,较前日持平,广州四级豆油报价6680元/吨 ,较前日上涨50元。

国内期货市场: 内盘油脂类商品 豆油 棕榈油1405合约继续保持中线的上涨反弹态势,其中棕榈油1405合约今天首次站上日图表60天线以上,期价的上行,拉动短期均线上移,出现短期均线(5 10 20 40天)上穿60天迹象,原先空头排列的均线系统正逐步被改变中,若后市形成均线多头排列,则市场行情将发生反转, 当前为上穿动作的关键时期,市场走势也较为敏感, 密切关注该动作的后续发展情况。

马来西亚毛棕榈油: 基准5月合约成为主力合约,在去年12月9日前高位置(2685令吉)下方昨天短暂回落整理最终中阳收盘,今天早盘跳空高开,一举突破该高点,反弹行情延续中,该商品的均线系统已经提前显露上穿后的多头排列雏形,当前期价上涨处于加速期。

小结:随着期价的上扬,均线系统上穿过程通常也是市场行情的敏感期,从通常意义上来说,当均线上穿成功后,期价将出现一个回落确认过程,在节奏上也就是说- 期价先加速上扬,拉动均线上穿, 上穿成功后,期价回抽确认均线反转的可靠性(期价下挫), 这是均线反转完整过程中的前后两个阶段, 当前我们所关注的油脂商品正处于前半个阶段进行过程中的尾声阶段, 而后半个阶段还未发生,现在提前讨论,是要我们在思路上提前做个思想准备。 针对当前来说, 我们前期低位所进反弹多单仍可继续持有,后市当均线上穿成功后,在思想上需要我们越来越谨慎, 万一有风吹草动,我们可逢高减仓。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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