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Global Market Wrap – 19 February 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周三反弹多单谨慎持有

昨日晚间,美盘原油 美豆油以及美黄豆连,均长阳上涨收盘,这对油脂类商品的反弹鼓舞强烈,特别是美豆油5月,期价于60天均线上方收长阳,日图表上下方短期均线上穿60天线进行中,原先长期下降趋势下空头排列的均线系统大有“反转”的苗头, 短期筑大底的可靠性正在验证中。 今天早盘,大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1405合约,再次双双跳空高开,一改昨天的短暂疲软,加速上行迹象非常明显,短期均线上穿长期均线进行中。

马盘毛棕榈油走势强于内盘油脂商品,由于其领先其他油脂商品第一个站上60天线技术压力,后又一举突破去年12月9日前高的阻挡,上升空间完全打开,盘中表现已经连续多日出现向上的跳空缺口,由于上方已经没有任何的技术压力阻挡, 上扬过程较为流畅,惯性反弹延续中。

小结:油脂类商品的反弹运行到关键时期,大的 反转迹象越发显露出苗头,期价呈跳跃式上涨,上行速度较快,在这敏感时期,前期低位多单在欣慰同时要时刻保持谨慎(在低位时我们保持的是乐观观点,越到高处我们反而越要谨慎), 由于盘中多单主力 散户浮赢筹码积累较多, 后期期价波动幅度难免越发激烈, 反弹行情仍延续中,思维上后市密切关注均线上穿结束后的回抽确认动作何时发生。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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