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Global Market Wrap – 19 January 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周日 横盘平台整理的一周

本周期货市场油脂类商品右侧阴阳K线横盘整理,呈区间震荡整理状态,期价波动幅度收窄,整体表现为- 无趋势行情下的平台横盘走势。这里提到趋势就多说几句。市场的行情是以趋势形式来演绎的, 趋势分有趋势行情和无趋势行情两大类,二者在具体操作手法上是不同的,其中有趋势行情指的是单边上涨或者单边下跌,在上升趋势或者下降趋势方向明确情况下,操作上尽量沿趋势的方向单边买进或者单边卖出操作就可以了。 而无趋势行情下的操作就相对复杂一些,若此时刻仍延用趋势行情下的操作手法来交易,便会出现来回止损而吃亏的情况。 在无趋势情况下的行情是来回震荡整理,期价呈“一”字平台状态,期价围绕某一价格中心上下折腾却又不远离该价格,该行情下的操作手法是以“低吸高抛”短线交易为主, 由于知道期价短期不会远离中心点,所以不能追多或者追空,而是反着以前的操作手法—–在平台上端部位做空,平台下端部位买多,并且交易时间通常较短,见好就收不能贪。 这种涨上去会下来与跌下来会再上去的横盘平台整理行情下所做的交易,因为价格是围绕平衡中心点上下波动,所以一般情况下都不需要设置止损, 期价在一天当中总要见某一价格好几回,即便当天被套,一般在第二天也能回来。 由于该手法是和趋势行情下的交易手法是相反的,大部分交易者是不能接受, 所以在平台横盘做区间震荡的行情被趋势交易者所抛弃和厌恶, 通常情况下趋势交易者 波段交易者在该时段场外观望。短线交易者中短线技术水平较高的人建议少量参与。

从本周油脂类商品,特别是内盘豆油,棕榈油1405合约来说,就典型的属于无趋势下的横盘整理状态,用上面讲到的操作手法包杀二品种。横盘平台整理状态是多空主力资金短暂势均力敌,短线打个平手不分胜负情况下出现的走势, 该走势在以后的行情中会经常遇到,短线激进交易者可尝试操作。 值得提醒的是-该走势不可能会一直延续下去,当多空某一方的力量最终占上风分出胜负之后, 无趋势的平台整理平衡模式就会被打破,市场会转到有方向的趋势行情下,我们等待市场选择出后市的方向,及时跟进。

综述: 本周油脂商品平台整理延续中, 马盘毛棕榈油本周停盘2天, 美盘豆油已经横盘9天, 基本面消息略显真空,技术面明确信号也不强烈,市场暂无明确方向的指引。耐心等待市场做出选择。

个人看法: 趋势交易者场外观望, 波段交易者休息,短线交易者可低吸高抛日内交易,不贪 不持仓过夜太久, 等待市场给出新的方向,当平台整理一旦被打破,再及时跟进。 虽内心有主观想法,但尽量不提前预测。做好准备看下周市场表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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