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Global Market Wrap – 2 December 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周一 印马出口关税提高 国内进口受影响

今天12月 2日周一,从大陆内盘油脂类表现来看,内盘棕榈油开盘后无力上扬,转为短线日内回落。受印尼与马来西亚两国12月份提高棕榈油出口关税影响较为明显,进口成本有所增加。从盘中可明显观察到内盘投资人有买豆油卖棕榈油的跨品种套利操作模式, 棕榈油1405周一短线承压走低。

当前现货市场 国内24度棕榈油现货报价稳中偏强,大部分地区报价在6100元/吨左右。

内盘大豆, 豆粕受美盘黄豆连上涨提振影响,跟随美盘大豆延续上行。油脂类的调整并未影响到豆类表现。

马盘毛棕榈油,我们提到过上周五时候有多头获利盘出逃迹象 ,估计该动作会影响到本周一的市场表现,内盘马盘棕榈油联动迹象较为明显,受内盘下挫影响,马盘可能也会出现短暂调整。

印尼召开的棕榈油会议呈现看多预期,支撑BMD马盘期价偏强震荡。且因季节性利多因素仍在。

棕榈油下一个炒作热点可能会有所转移,即由季节性需求转为生物燃料需求。(生物燃料概念, 即棕榈油成为原油替代品,在柴油中掺杂一定量棕榈油,由于棕榈油价格相对便宜,因此降低了柴油成本) 若该概念真的成立,将会消化棕榈油庞大库存,由此将会缓解棕榈油价格下跌的压力,该炒作热点对棕榈油形成利多预期。 后市我们密切关注该消息的炒作对棕榈油的影响。

个人看法: 内盘周一因关税问题棕榈油下跌整理,马棕榈油恐将受到影响。但由于下方均线系统的层层支撑,回落幅度应该不会很大,在整体预期利多情况下,继续以静制动, 原老多单继续持有观点不变。等待美盘豆油给予技术上涨的支持。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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