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Global Market Wrap – 20 December 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周五 油脂交易萎缩 期价收窄 弱势格局延续

美联储议息会议宣布缩减QE之后,美元压力减轻而出现上涨。外汇市场非美风险货币欧元承压则出现大跌。商品市场也出现压力,贵金属美黄金昨晚扩大跌幅, 一度带动有色金属LME伦敦铜 锌盘中也出现大跌,伦敦有色金属前期的上涨到达压力位,后市上涨或被终结。

内盘商品市场整体笼罩在空头氛围之中,包括股票市场上证指数 商品市场的 橡胶 螺纹 焦炭 玻璃 PTA等商品均出现不同程度下跌,油脂类商品市场虽然盘中不时出现多头主力护盘现象,近几日期价跌幅有所收窄,成交量明显萎缩。但仍难以违背商品市场的整体空头氛围所带来的压力。 我们依旧把此阶段定义为 “波段状态下的弱势格局” 后市整理过程仍将继续。

内盘油脂类商品后市若要恢复前期上涨,唯一希望是美豆油的指引。前期我们说过,美豆油若下破10月2日低点则会有技术上新低出现,现在正是运行此过程。原本前期美豆油在10月 2日之上右侧横盘整理,若不破该低点,大筑底过程中向上突破的概率非常大。现在10月2日的低点已破,说明美豆油还得下探寻找新的支撑,在新支撑未确定之前,市场仍呈弱势下行。筑底过程在时间周期是则被延长。

个人看法: 空头氛围笼罩,油脂类弱势格局延续,波段上宜跌难涨,只有当此波段结束,市场才会选择新方向。我们的思维虽已经开始转到下一波段上,但在这之前,稳健操作者仍需场外观望。 短线交易者把握好隔日K线的交易节奏短线进出, 弄点烟酒小钱就跑。 莫贪。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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