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Global Weekly Market Wrap – 20 February 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周四 内盘冲高回落弥补缺口

周三内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1405合约,受美豆油周二长阳上涨影响,昨天早盘跳空高开,全天形成冲高回落走势,终盘以带上影线的小阴K线收盘, 今天早盘再次回落,填补昨天的跳空高开遗留的缺口,短线上出现整理态势, 通过仔细观察: 豆油1405合约,昨天上冲高点位置正好是日图表上60天线位置, 而棕榈油1405合约,日图表昨天被向上跳跃式突破, 但在周图表上昨天上冲高点却恰好是60周线压力位置。 由于此二品种均存在自身的技术压力位,所以盘中表现的回落整理在所难免。

马盘毛棕榈油5月合约,前期下跌时候就表现出抗跌,反弹时候又是早早率先站上60天线(在2月10日时候的日图表就站上了),而周图表上5月合约早已是均线多头排列,(4月合约还有个 60周线压力 5月没任何阻挡), 因此马盘棕榈油近期反弹走势要远强于大陆内盘棕榈油,盘中表现为沿45度斜率,稳步直线性盘升。

小结: 内盘反弹磕磕碰碰震荡盘升, 马盘上涨顺风顺水直线上行,在同性质反弹行情下盘中表现略有不同, 马强内弱迹象明显,整体来说:油脂商品此波反弹延续中,中线反弹思路不变。前期我们也提到过,由于下方多单获利筹码积累较多,盘中出现心态不稳造成期价波动剧烈在所难免,但截至到今天为止,内外盘并未出现反弹结束的技术上明确信号,因此我们继续保持反弹观点不变,操作上趋势性操作者原多单继续谨慎持有, 波段性操作者原多单可逢急拉少量减持。 因为我们知道,任何一波行情不可能总是呈直线运行, 就拿本波行情来说,后市必定会呈现“上涨—-回落—-再上涨” 之 字形 波浪 式 , 我们现在所不确定的是我们前几天报告中所提到的 内盘“V型”高度在那?(总感觉内盘上涨还差一点急拉的火候) 所以我们在反弹观点不变的情况,操作上开始变得谨慎, 特别是当盘中越是出现跳跃性快速急拉时候,那就真的离第一波段反弹尾声不远了 。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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