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Global Market Wrap – 21 January 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周二 油脂长阳之后短暂冲高回落整理

近几日内盘农业方面政策面消息频出, 2014年发布的一号文件指出:2014年,启动东北和内蒙古大豆、新疆棉花目标价格补贴试点,探索粮食、生猪等农产品目标价格保险(放心保)试点,开展粮食生产规模经营主体营销贷款试点。继续执行稻谷、小麦最低收购价政策和玉米,油菜籽、食糖临时收储政策。

其中——–国家收储菜籽一般是指委托有资质的油脂加工企业加工成菜籽油从而变相转入储备菜籽油。 菜籽油是内盘三大油脂类商品之一, 菜籽油的政策性利好,间接影响到另外2大油脂商品,豆油,棕榈油,昨天内盘油脂类商品普遍大涨,长阳报收,原平台整理的区间被打破,短线有走强迹象。

今天周二,内盘油脂类商品冲高回落,在昨天阳K线右上角整理,此位置走势很敏感,若期价仅在昨天阳K线实体一半之上整理运行,则后市继续看好, 若回落太多,切入昨天阳K线实体一半以下,甚至吞没阳K线,则会出现再次回到区间平台整理状态, 我们目前保持前者观点—–即长阳之后的右上角短暂回落整理。


小结:内外盘油脂类商品出现技术性反弹迹象,由于前期均线系统为空头排列, 均线在上方层层阻挡,因此反弹过程不可能一帆风顺。密切关注反弹力度对高度的影响, 操作上多单谨慎性持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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