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Global Market Wrap – 25 December 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周三 圣诞节交投萎缩

今天是纪念主耶稣诞生的日子,大部分国家狂欢庆贺,交易所停盘。圣诞节在中国大陆不是法定节日,没有放假休息。由于周边交易市场大部停盘放假,故内盘交易萎缩。

内盘油脂类商品依旧保持自12月13日技术破位后的”波段性弱势格局”,期价重心逐步下移,并有下跌加速迹象,整体呈现空头主力主导市场。

马盘毛棕榈油今天未开盘,从前2日表现来看,出现脱离下跌盘整,反身上涨,目前期价恰好处于12月12日与12.13日的跳空缺口之间, 这是一个很微妙的位置,既没站在缺口上方,却又位于缺口下方之上。 显得很玄妙。期价就卡在缺口中间,令投资人不能确定其后市是上是下,圣诞节留给市场一个悬念。

内盘马盘油脂商品走势出现分化,进口国想价格更便宜些,出口国想价格抬高些,利益集团的各自想法得到充分体现。我们不关心双方利益集团的本质想法, 我们只要记住:市场价格包容一切。 既然市场出现该价格,这个价格已经包含了基本面的一切,都是被市场所认可的。

小结:内盘加速下跌,马盘反身上涨,油脂类商品走势出现差异,谁真谁假市场自然会给出答案。 短暂的差异走势是可以的 ,因为各自的基本面情况存在差异,但从更长期角度来说,二者必定最终会走到相同道路上来。马盘今天停盘无操作,内盘依旧保持万米前期观点,短空操作。

祝公司同仁圣诞节快乐!

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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