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Global Market Wrap – 26 January 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周日 大陆传统节日春节前最后一个交易周

本周回顾: 内盘油脂类商品整体表现平淡, 内盘棕榈油1405合约本周一长阳上冲,一举突破原整理平台, 大有展开反弹态势,可惜的由于成交量配合不理想,仅仅昙花一现,在随后的4天期价缓慢下搓,形成本周 一阳四阴走势,令期价再次回归到整理平台的中枢平衡位置,本周一的长阳假突破的嫌疑大增,后市再度回归震荡无趋势的整理平台概率增大。

内盘豆油1405合约走势与1405棕榈油类似,所不同的是回落力度更大, 本周五的下挫令期价回归到平台整理的底部区域下沿附近, 盘面显示在上冲无果后大有选择下破平台的欲望–我们之前曾说过,这个平台不可能一直延续下去, 行情在方向上必定要做出个选择,现在的情况是上破宣告失败,于是市场就来找下破来试试的感觉。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月合约, 本周走势远强于内盘油脂商品,期价5个交易日震荡上行,重心有所上移, 美中不足的是期价反弹到60天线位置后,屡冲不过,技术上受阻明显,若下周再上冲不过,则多单平仓了结。

综述: 本周油脂类商品表现平淡无奇,下周是大陆传统节日—春节, “回家 团圆”是普通公众的心声, 在最后一个交易周之后又将迎来春节长假, 下周人心不稳恐成常态,多空平仓了结意愿增强, 为规避由此现象造成期价的非正常波动, 建议我们持仓者在下周交易过程中防范风险, 一旦出现不利情况, 全部平仓了结,年后再战。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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