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Global Market Wrap – 26 November 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周二日报 油脂回落 跳空缺口被弥补

国家发改委等四部门下发《关于2013年东北地区国家临时存储玉米和大豆收购有关问题的通知》要求中储粮直属企业及直接管理的租赁库点,将于25日在东北地区全面启动临储玉米和大豆收购,截止时间为2014年4月30日。 其中大豆保护收储价为4600/吨,目前大豆收购11月25日昨天已全面启动,不过由于东北地区大雪导致道路运输受到影响,预期本周收储数量有限,对大豆现货价格的支撑有限。

周二大连盘油脂类商品基本面情况无多大变化,棕榈油1405合约昨天创出新高6494元/吨,尾盘有些许回落,已经连续2天呈现十字星状态,目前价格处于5日均线位置 。大陆油脂类商品上午盘面观察, 前期上涨时的跳空缺口,在上午盘中被回落弥补,同时成交量有一定的萎缩,属于上冲后的脉冲式高位震荡整理,多空主力都在等待适合自己出手的有利时机。

马来西亚BMD毛棕榈油基准2月合约昨天高开回落,收盘价格恰好为11.月1日前高2629 马币 ,已经连续2天高位阴盘报收,表明上攻态势较为艰难, 高位整理将短暂持续。

前期我们提到过, 大陆内盘 马盘 油脂类受美盘豆油影响较大,由于美盘豆油日图表60天均线处有短暂阻挡 ,已经2天收阴,美盘豆油是否突破60天线的压制,将成为后市方向性指引关键,目前内盘马盘多空主力分歧较大,多空主力都在等待该位置的明确指引。

美盘大豆 豆粕由于出口情况良好,周一夜盘继续保持上涨态势,美国大豆已经完全收割完毕,在此销售时刻,不会令价格下跌太多而便宜卖给别人,美国人不是傻子,免费服务全球人民的事情,他们是不会做。美黄豆连继续上涨值得期待。。。

个人看法:密切关注美盘豆油60天线位置的表现,该位置不明朗时候, 内盘及马盘油脂将出现多空分歧而发生大的震荡,耐心等待美盘豆油的方向指引。在均线系统多头排列之下,新老多单设好个人心理止损前提下,由空头折腾去吧,在没有完全转跌信号出现前,继续谨慎持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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