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Global Market Wrap – 27 January 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周一 内盘油脂类商品选择向下突破

事情总是这样,越是担心什么,越是发生什么。周日昨天如果还是试试感觉的猜想,那今天内盘的走势就完全证明了。我们很早就对这波整理平台做过分析:结论是它迟早是要被打破的, 但在突破的方向上我们没有主观去判断,而是留给市场自己做出选择, 在上周一的长阳突破出现,当时只能以市场选择向上的突破方向来跟随和操作, 可随后4天的下挫弱势表现,对单日长阳向上突破判断的担忧越来越强烈。单日长阳假动作的疑惑在上周一直缠绕在心中。

今天周一, 内盘油脂商品早盘的走势终于证明那根长阳向上突破是市场跟我们开的一个玩笑, 内盘豆油1405合约今天选择突破平台的下沿,并且已经再次创出新低,短线的方向已经很明确, 后市转为看空对待。 棕榈油1405合约虽然今天的表现没豆油明显,但期价也已经来到原平台整理的下沿区域, 市场就是这样,当向上突破宣告失败后,当价格再来到平台的下沿附近,那下破的概率大增。

马盘毛棕榈油经过上周5天的震荡上行, 受阻于60天线技术压制,由于内盘的疲软,基准4月合约恐将受到拖累,后市逐步转淡看待。

小结:内盘油脂商品选择向下突破基本明确,我们以前说过,平台上沿突破后我们多单跟进,平台下沿被突破后空单跟进, 当市场技术走势明确后,我们所要做的只有跟随,人的思维是个渐进的过程,我们不怕市场给我们做假动作开玩笑,只要我们跟随市场的步伐,从更长角度来说胜利早晚属于坚持者。 操作上豆油1405合约多单因持仓理由缺失而全部平仓,短线后市转为看空。马盘毛棕榈油基准4月合约平多反空,逢高短空操作。 内盘棕榈油1405合约短线观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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