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Global Market Wrap – 27 November 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周三中线看好不变 短线出现大震荡

周二内盘风云突变,棕榈油1405合约在突破11.1日高点后,连续2日高位十字星收盘,技术上没有延续惯性上冲,继而转为回落整理弥补跳空缺口,原本一个很正常的技术修复动作,在回补缺口时,多单止损盘突然涌出,形成多杀多局面 ,最后多头获利平仓盘 止损盘共减仓8万多手,令内盘棕榈油长阴K线报收,期价再次回落到原平台盘整区间内(11.1日至11.12日高低点的区间)。表明市场人心不稳, 短线投机心理过强,趋势性操难以为继,商品市场稍微有点风吹草动,投资人就会恐慌平仓—–既然市场是以这种方式来演绎行情发展,我们随后也要改变下操作模式,以滚动式方法操作: 即行情上涨动能衰竭时多单减仓,回落整理受到支撑时多单再接回,以规避期价大幅波动震荡所带来账面缩水情况。

马来西亚毛棕榈油同样存在相同的技术现象,但走势要比内盘棕榈油技术上要标准许多。从基准2月合约日图表可以看到,近20个交易日以来,每当行情上涨3天时候,就发生4至5天的回落,然后再上涨3天,再发生4至5天回落。明显属于震荡螺旋式上涨态势,当前又出现了4至5天回落阶段 ,新的接盘机会再次来临,就在今天和明天, 我们值得密切关注一下。

美盘豆油盘面显示继续受60天均线压制而下跌,而美盘大豆及豆粕却依旧上行。从此现象我们可以分析到,美盘油脂类商品上,投机人士存在卖豆油买大豆豆粕的商品套利操作模式.

个人看法: 原上涨态势于昨天被一根长阴K线打乱,短线再次整理不可避免, 但原有上涨走势仍未被完全破坏 ,并且转势信号没明显确立。在均线系统多头排列情况下,下方均线的支撑作用仍然有效。趋势性操作者账面有所缩水,未来得及止损平仓者,可继续“大智若愚”般持有,等待下次冲高时减磅,波段以及短线操作者,由于对于盘面较为敏感,已平仓者可待期价短暂回落再次多单接盘。 在这当前上有压力下有支撑的市场阶段,正是考验我们心理承受力的时刻。我们要在心理思路和技术操作上不断完善自己,以规避没必要的风险。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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