Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Market Wrap – 28 January 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周二 期价滑落有加速迹象

在2014年第一个月份,中国大陆禽流感再次蔓延,截止到昨天为止,全国已经确诊H7N9病例102列,其中死亡20列, 分别是浙江12人 ,广东4人,上海4人。国家卫计委, 中国疾控中心, 国家流感中心, 多部门出来辟谣,指尚无证据显示H7N9病毒会在人和人之间大规模传播, 春运期间人员流动大,恐造成一定的恐慌。

禽流感爆发对商品期货市场上豆粕影响较大,小道消息传言油脂类商品的下跌也是由此影响的。 我个人认为,油脂类商品的下跌是本身技术因素性造成的,与禽流感关系不大。

油脂类商品本身在长期趋势上为下降趋势,前段时间的平台区间整理仅仅是一个短暂技术停顿,上周一平台被向上长阳突破,由于均线系统的空头排列,上方层层压制阻力过大,以失败告终,继而转为寻找阻力小的方向,市场的表现就如同水的流动方向一样 ,是沿阻力小的方向选择了下破,这是很正常的现象。

在平台震荡整理区间时候,期价在平衡中枢上下波动,操作类型属于无趋势下震荡操作手法,我们此前也说过,在此阶段可不必设置止损,期价在来回波动中会经常给你安全平仓的机会。 但当市场选择了突破方向后,无趋势的平台被技术性击破,若投资者仍按照无趋势情况下的操作手法继续操作, 没第一时间做出止损和改变操作手法,那吃亏就在所难免了。

小结:昨天油脂类商品已经很明确完成了方向选择,平台区间下沿被击破,市场的表现就如同屋顶破洞掉下来的石头般坠落, 今天从盘面观察,期价下挫有加速迹象。此状况要延续一段时间, 后市仍有新低探底。 操作上平多反空后的空单持有, 考虑到春节长假将到,可在急跌过程中适当平仓了结。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


Share and Enjoy:
[] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here


OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.