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Global Market Wrap – 29 January 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周三 短线下跌行情延续中

本周一内盘豆油1405合约率先下破平台, 昨天周二豆油,棕榈油1405合约,双双跳空低开,直接脱离平台的底部区域, 连续2天错列阴棒,使得下破平台得以确认,在昨天下破明确之后,空头增仓打压,光头光脚的中阴收盘,盘中下跌有加速迹象。 昨天曾建议在盘中遇急跌可适当空单减仓。今日周三,内盘豆油和棕榈油早盘双双高开,期价运行于昨天阴棒中间位置, 形成孕育K线组合,这种K线组合虽然期价略有抬高,但并不能表明下跌结束, 此波下跌形态仍延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月合约本周一和周二已经连续出现2个跳空缺口,今天期价略有走高,但昨天向下的跳空缺口仍未被弥补,当前整体在1月14日前波谷之上运行, 若该波谷被技术下破,则会出现下跌加速迹象, 密切关注前波谷2500位置的表现,若被下破则下跌空间打开。

小结:本波油脂类平台下破后的下跌延续中,后市仍存在下跌空间。 中线空单可持有,短线空单遇急跌先平 ,逢高在空,踏准市场短线运行节奏。这里提前透漏一点信息,本波的下跌是延续中长期的下降趋势方向运行的,技术上走的很规范,通过对棕榈油1405合约的走势分析,其中去年5月份和10月份发生的波段性上涨,令中长期的下降趋势是一个下挫探底的过程暴露出来,当这波下降趋势到达尾声时候,也就是大底形成时刻。从当前的1405棕榈油日图表可以看出, 本波下跌确实是在延续中, 但已经出现底背离的初步迹象。 我们以前从大角度上所讲的“中长期油脂类筑大底”的观点不变, 当这波下跌结束后,市场会再次给我们一个极低价格买进的中线大机会。当然这个机会现在就说出来是时间上还略早了些, 短线上我们仍需要短空看待。 如果非要用文字来描述我所要表达的油脂类商品后市走势图形,可简单归纳如下几字-中长期下降趋势行情延续,短线下跌看待,震荡筑大底,拐点出现,大行情反转,行情上涨。这是一个大的“圆锅底”图形。 我们要做的就是耐心等待“下一个拐点”出现, 未出现前的当前阶段仍以圆锅底左边的短空看待。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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