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Global Market Wrap – 5 January 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周日 第一交易周 空头氛围突袭

本周是2014年的第一个交易周,其中仅有2个交易日(1号停盘休息 2号,3号交易),就这2个交易日搅动全球金融市场风云突变,动荡不安起来。

先不谈股票市场和外汇市场,单从商品期货市场来说- 由于美元连续2个交易日大涨,期货市场遭当头一棒, 大部分品种出现大跌。 首先是伦敦铜,锌商品, 该两品种前期走势强劲,期价沿日图表上多头排列的均线系统稳步上行,突遭棒喝,令期价掉头向下,前期的上涨态势被终止。 美原油商品由于美元指数的抬头上涨,同样遭当头一棒,期价连续2天大阴下跌收盘,一阴吞多阳,令前期的小碎步上涨毁于一旦。

2014年的第一周是风云突变的一周, 大多数投资人一觉醒来,猛然发现被空头气氛所包围,原来看多的金属,原油商品猛然间掉入深渊, 而前期看空的贵金属黄金却突然强力反弹上涨, 2天内这一跌一涨的突然转换,全球投资人不知所措 目瞪口呆 。

本周五内盘商品市场,空头气氛严峻,空头主力牢牢掌握商品市场节奏,除黄金外的大部分商品都出现不同程度下跌,部分商品还创出新低,我们所关心的油脂类商品也不列外, 内盘豆油1405合约,周一长阳上涨,周二冲高回落,周三低开低走,周四高开高走,周五低开低走创出新低,5天的表现极其夸张,如同疯狂舞蹈的巫婆般。内盘棕榈油1405合约走势就文静了许多,周一长阳单日反转上涨,周二周三稍作整理 ,周四高开高走,周五受内盘其他商品下跌影响中阴收盘,棕榈油还属于我们预期的反弹范畴内。

马来西亚BMD毛棕榈油基准3月合约一周表现二阳二阴一十字星,期价整体变化不大,受外围商品市场下跌影响不明显,在全球商品市场普遍大跌情况下,如此表现实属难得。但在前高附近,我们心理上也要谨慎些。

综述:本周商品市场唯黄金有转强迹象和棕榈油中性外,其余商品普遍出现大跌,内盘商品市场空头氛围浓厚,空头主力主导市场,市场在恐慌当中部分商品出现急跌,有色金属铜,锌有转弱迹象,不排除个别商品下周出现新低的可能。 油脂类商品此阶段仍处于我们前期所提到的复杂周期内,由于长中短线上技术的蹩腿现象,容易令盘中走势变得敏感而极端。

个人看法:豆油1405合约已下破周一长阳低点,原多单触及止损点平仓出局,后市转空看待。棕榈油1405合约表现稍强,未触及止损位置,原多单谨慎持有。 为规避内盘其他商品弱势下的带动作用,稳健交易者可适量作空豆油, 形成多棕榈空豆油的跨品种套利交易模式。马盘毛棕榈油未出现明显走坏迹象,原多单可继续持有,稳健操作者若心存担忧的话,可适量减少毛棕榈油的多单持仓,转出部分资金买进少许黄金。 黄金短线出现走强迹象。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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