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Global Market Wrap – 7 January 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

日周二 商品暴跌 规避风险

金融市场忽如一夜邪风来,内盘商品市场以橡胶为首的各类品种包括螺纹,玻璃,焦炭, 白糖,PTA,豆油都已经创出新低, 短短几天时间,下跌力度之猛,下跌速度之快,确实令期货市场投资人士目瞪口呆。

就拿内盘豆油1405合约来说,一跌破12月27日那根长阳底部,那是我们所设置的多空分界碑,在之上为单日反转向上,在之下则转为看空,若有人在跌破之时,多单未及时果断止损,短短3天时间,期价下跌250多点,这不是仅仅鬼哭狼嚎几声就能解决的,那是资金的大量损失为代价,仓位重的也许暴仓都有可能。从图表上观察,下破分界线后,该品种下方已经无任何技术支撑,期价跌倒何时止步,只能看空头主力的资金意愿和豆油本身的商品价值 了。

除黄金外的各类商品的暴跌,马来西亚毛棕榈油基准3月合约也终于低下了高傲的头,我们的减仓不是多余的,真应了中国古代那句老话“覆巢之下安有完卵”,外围商品的普遍下跌,终于拖累到马盘棕榈油3月合约,该品种有转弱苗头出现。波段和短线交易者应该多单平仓全部出局。而趋势交易者不会因为一或二天的下跌就全部平仓,我们把前一个波谷 12月18日那个低点(2550左右)做为风向标,若期价下破该波谷低点,后市转看空。 理由是1月2日时候冲击12月9日的波峰前高2690未过,若波谷再被下破,则形成波峰波谷依次下降形态,趋势交易持单理由丢失, 目前此状况在概率上逐步增强。

内盘棕榈油1405合约,今天在12月27日单日反转的长阳K线底部挣扎抵抗,豆油的单日反转已经以宣告失败,棕榈油的挣扎略显苍白,若该位置被下破,则棕榈油也转为看空对待。

小结: 商品市场各类商品普遍大跌,对油脂类商品的拖累作用不可小视,已经完全影响到该品种投资人做多情绪,后市跟随其他商品下跌的概率逐步加大。操作上波段和短线交易者平多反空,趋势交易者在设置好止损前提下少量持多,若触及各自止损位,应果断止损平仓。商品普遍下跌,我们暂避风头,等待下一次的进场良机。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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