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Global Market Wrap – 8 January 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

日周三 内盘棕榈油继豆油之后再次破位

内盘棕榈油1405合约昨天还在12月 27日长阳底部位置上方苦苦挣扎,勉强收盘5930之上, 但由于外围市场空头气氛浓厚,今天早盘直接跳空低开该价格之下,一举跌破长阳底部期价止损位5930,上午形成低开低走状态,目前期价为5840左右,比昨天下跌一百多点,我们昨天的担忧提醒今天变成现实。 继豆油后,也同样宣告12月27日单日反转最终失败。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,昨天提醒前波谷位置位于12月18日 2550一线,该位置为趋势交易者止损的多空分界线,昨天收盘已经跌破日图表多头排列的均线系统60天(2573),今天上午低开,盘中瞬间见2545,同样岌岌可危。若下午收盘时候下破该位置,则趋势交易者多持仓理由就完全消失,需果断平仓出局,等待后市再次进场机会。

小结:内外盘整体盘面弱势格局强烈已有几日,空头氛围浓厚,后市转淡迹象明显。 操作上波段和短线两类交易者早已平多反空,规避了该风险。 而趋势交易者从操作理念上本身就没波段和短线交易者敏感,属于长线投资一类,并且趋势交易者永远不会把单子平仓在鱼头鱼尾顶底上,他们的理念本身就是舍弃鱼头鱼尾,只抓鱼身那一段,这也是我个人多年来逐步把趋势交易改变为波段交易的原因,即分析研究时候依旧着眼于趋势方向的判断上,但操作上是趋势之内的波段交易-趋势是由波段组成的,K线又是组成波段的再次深化,我们研究时候是从大周期到小周期,而操作时候更适合从小到大,这样对账面资金的保护更有利些,更及时些。 进一步解说:就是波段是期价运行的轨迹, 我们按照期价的轨迹操作能避免趋势操作的一些不足。单边行情下趋势交易往往利润大,但震荡行情以及价格剧烈波动的复杂阶段,趋势交易没波段交易灵活。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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