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Global Market Wrap – 9 February 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周日 油脂商品分析及下周展望

技术表现: 本周中国内盘期货商品市场就2月7日一个交易日,农产品中油脂类商品表现抢眼,普遍高开高走,其中豆油1405合约上涨218点,涨幅3.41%,减仓86716手。棕榈油1405合约上涨144点,涨幅2.54%,减仓17126手。 豆粕1405合约上涨98元, 涨幅2.97%,减仓26032手。

从当天内盘油脂类商品技术分析:减仓上行为空头止损出逃,急促的跳空高开令行情迈开了反弹上涨的第一步, 由于日图表均线系统整体表现为空头排列, 2月7日当天日K线略带上影线,期价从日内高点小有回落, 表明突然的上涨多头也有所顾忌, 从这些盘口语言来说, 本波反弹的后市发展不会一帆风顺,(空头是否继续出逃或反手多头是否重拾信心) 我们密切关注后期反弹的持续性和具体走势节奏。

马来西亚BND毛棕榈油基准4月合约,2月7日跳空高开十字星收盘,上涨9令吉/吨,涨幅0.35%。当前期价已经站上前几日横盘K线的上沿,突破迹象明显, 但上方又紧靠日图表上60天线压制, 只有该压制被有效向上突破,上行空间才打开, 目前处于下有支撑,上有压力阶段,后市走势,相信在下周初市场就将会给出明确答案。

美盘市场, 美黄豆继续震荡上行,已经连续多日阳K线报收,反弹迹象较为明显。美豆油筑底回升,在均线系统空头排列之下强势反弹, 下一步将挑战日图表上60天线的技术压力,若该位置被有效突破,则宣告中期反弹成立。 下周一,美国农业部将有报告公布,其中涉及到大豆总库存情况,密切关注明天该报告对美盘的影响。

美原油2.7日周五发力上行,期价再次站上100美元大关,该商品反弹行情延续中。

中国大陆现货市场: 大陆24度棕榈油现货报价基本稳定,华南港口报价在5750元/吨左右。据中国海关数据,12月份国内棕榈油进口量为65.25万吨,较上个月增加14.5%。 当前1月份国内港口棕榈油库存量在95万吨上下,后期存在一定的去库存压力。

综述:2月7日节后第一天,内盘油脂类商品表现抢眼,骤然跳空高开, 令反弹态势呼之欲出, 当前国内油脂商品基本面平淡,上涨原因主要是靠美盘油脂商品上涨带动, 后市延续反弹走势可期, 但由于留下的跳空缺口是否需要被弥补的不确定性,下周走势在细小节奏上有2点变数,其一是下蹲弥补一下跳空缺口,其二是不回补直接继续上行。2月7日已进多单者,在下周操作上建议再细分2类操作手法,当下蹲出现时多单可考虑逢低补仓买进。 若直接继续上行, 原多单持有并可少量多单做突破跟进。 当前油脂市场后市整体以反弹看待,内盘油脂形态上存在V型 “反转”雏形, 是否成功,风向标密切关注美盘,马盘和外围市场。日图表上60天线位置是否被有效突破。 下周是很关键的一周,望大家打起精神。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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