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Global Markets Analysis – 01 April 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.04.2015 周三 美国农业部季度报告公布

昨天晚间美国农业部2015年度首次季度报告出炉,其中库存方面,截止到3月1日美国大豆库存为13.34亿蒲式耳,高于去年同期的9.94亿蒲式耳,但略低于分析师所预期的。报告中美国大豆农户种植意向面积,在2015年度将达到创纪录的8463.5万英亩,但低于分析机构普遍预测的8591.9万英亩。从这份报告中,我们分析可以总结为:报告中性略带偏多。

昨日晚间美盘黄大豆,见低点951.25后收起,带下影线红盘上涨,今天亚洲电子盘继续小阳上涨,美盘大豆在前低技术位置存在支撑,短线存在上行欲望。美盘豆油5月合约同样在30.00一线(前低附近)存在技术支撑,昨日见低点30.05后阳K线收盘,但由于这根阳K先偏小,不足以完全确认前低的支撑效果,反弹上行的欲望要小于美大豆。后市仍不排除下破前低的可能。

大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1509合约,周三早盘低开高走,截止到上午10点半,盘中表现为中阳K线。表明短线在前低附近暂时存在技术支撑。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,周三早盘继续横盘区间震荡,已经连续横盘震荡10几个交易日,短线方向感不强,走势较为模糊,并未受外围市场的明确指引。

小结:美国农业部报告已经公布,悬在头顶的靴子落地。但报告内容更多呈中性,对短线盘面的走势影响较弱。当前油脂类商品仍处于技术性走势,也就是考验前低的技术支撑进行中,盘面上仍然未给出个明确的方向性指引。因此对前低的支撑效果尚不能给出明确答案,我们后市仍需要在前低低位多观察几日。只有确定了前低的支撑力度才能明确后市的短线运行方向,在这关键时刻建议不可盲目操作,静心等待技术上明确的信号。个人观点认为仍留有前期低位接盘多单者,设置好止损位谨慎持有。为规避不确定风险的锁单操作者,近2日暂不解锁,带后市明朗后再开锁不迟。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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