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Global Markets Analysis – 01 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.04.2016 周五 内盘油脂商品遇“清明节”假期停盘

华盛顿3.31日消息,美国农业部公布2016年度美国大豆播种意向调查数据以及季度库存数据。报告显示美国农户计划在2016年度播种大豆8223.6万英亩,(历史第三高点),但低于去年的8265万英亩。更低于分析师预测的8305万英亩。大豆库存方面,截止到3月1日美国大豆库存为15.31亿蒲式耳,高于去年同期的13.27亿蒲式耳,但低于市场预期的15.56亿蒲式耳。从报告分析-本次数据公布整体呈现利多层面。受此影响昨日美盘黄豆连与豆油双双红盘上涨,其中豆油5月合约再创盘中新高,短线看,美豆油又积聚了些许上冲动能。(该动能能持续多久成为我们关注重点)

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,今天周五盘中受美盘利好影响,短线多头主力再度进场发力上攻,特别是豆油1609合约更是长阴红盘暴涨,短线多头主力进场拉升迹象明显。4月4日为中国传统假期,清明节将停盘一天,因此从4月2日、4月3日、4月4日三天都将无交易,4月5日开盘。考虑假期不确定因素影响,我们建议短线场外观望一下。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,昨天以带上影线的阴K线收盘,今天周五盘中又继续阴十字星表现,短线上涨动能略有衰竭,整体属于较高位的震荡走势,同样建议观望。

小结:美盘豆油受美国农业部播种面积减少利多影响,期价大有继续上冲欲望,内盘油脂受此鼓舞短线多头有所再度发力,考虑到假期停盘我们建议减少操作。马盘棕榈油受利多影响不明显,期价仍处于高位的小幅震荡。在这敏感时间段,期价反复性比较强烈,表明多空主力分歧较大,投资者心态略有不稳,我们建议短线场外观望。观点认为具体操作上:短线交易者,波段性中线交易者多单逢高出局后场外观望,长线交易者部分多单继续持有。后市关注美国农业部利多消息对美盘油脂商品的影响力度时间有多长。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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