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Global Markets Analysis – 01 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.12.2014 周一 全球大宗商品遭受全面抛售

国际原油上周四与周五单边重挫,期价下跌幅度创出近几年来单日、单周、单月均最大跌幅,市场恐慌情绪蔓延,直接蔓延到全球各类大宗商品上,其中包括:贵金属黄金白银,有色金属如伦敦铜与伦敦锌,化工类商品以及农产品,以上品种均遭到全面抛售。

此种情况在上周四的OPEC会议一结束我们就有强烈预感,在上周五与周日的报告中已经部分提及,到今天周一全球期货市场果然如此演绎,全球大宗商品的普遍暴跌令市场投资人士人气严重受挫,恐慌心理的蔓延短线上仍将延续一段时间。

其中我们较为关心的油脂类商品也未逃脱厄运,受拖累严重。周一早盘大陆内盘所有期货品种均以下跌开场,全盘均阴K线下跌。其中油脂商品或跳空大幅度低开或低开低走,甚至棕榈油1505合约出现跌停,内盘豆油与棕榈油短线技术已经完全走坏,期价再创新低。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,国际原油的下跌使得棕榈油生物燃油的替代作用被淡化,周一早盘同样出现低开低走走势,短线局势扭转直下,后市转为看空观点。

美盘豆油1月合约走势仍为油脂商品的风向标,周一亚洲电子盘,期价已经下破昨天报告中所提及到的32.00-31.80下箱体位置,该技术位一旦被下破,前期14周的横盘区间的平衡状态就会被打破,(横盘期间的多头全部被套)就会出现多头止损出局现象,这点要引起我们的注意(我们以前早提到过,箱体上沿突破追多,箱体下沿突破追空,箱体内横盘震荡观望,突破那边追随那边的操作模式),当前下箱体被技术击破,后市短线转为看空。

小结:原油暴跌重挫严重影响到油脂类商品,油脂商品短线技术形态走坏,市场人气受挫,后市短线以疲软看待,密切关注下方空间到底有多大。个人观点认为内盘豆油与棕榈油1505合约逢高空单进场。马盘棕榈油周五建议的锁单仓单开锁,平多留空,认为激进短线空单操作者空单可持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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