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Global Markets Analysis – 01 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.12.2016 周四 内盘期货市场昨日晚间出现异动;部分商品短线走势诡异

11月30日晚间,国际原油市场传来消息:14个OPEC主要成员国一致同意,将原油产量减少120万桶/每日,新的产量目标为3250万桶/日-这是OPEC欧佩克组织八年来首次达成减产协议,该协议将在2017年1月1日起正式实施。受此消息影响,全球国际原油市场如布伦特原油与纽约原油双双长阳暴涨,原油市场后市短线仍有上升空间。

美盘豆油1月,昨日周三晚间红盘表现,期价小幅走高仍维持在较高的区间范围内。 整体来说美盘豆油仍处于反弹上行态势中,仅仅是这4天来期价始终不能再创出新高(高位的徘徊震荡容易引发担忧情绪)。单从美豆油1月短线走势上来说-仍可保持谨慎的短多思维,我们后市短线密切关注是否期价还有新高的出现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约登场(1701合约逐步退出主力地位),昨日周三晚间,内盘油脂商品出现异动现象,特别是豆油品种曾一度大幅高开,大有扳回昨日白天的疲软态势,在创出新高点之后遭到空头主力封杀打压。今天周四盘面上多头主力继续积极护盘,想尽量保持期价在一定高度的正常波动,但今天中阴K线的表现还是存在一种力不从心的盘面感觉-说明内盘油脂类商品受有色金属与化工类商品下跌的心里影响还是较为严重。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,短线走势相对内盘大幅异常波动表现来说-则较为平静许多,期价仍维持11月24日的最高点附近周围(距离前高也仅仅只有10几令吉特之差),整体呈现一种震荡型横盘小幅波动走势,多头主力抓住一切可能,再创新高的强烈欲望隐隐存在。

小结:内盘期货市场大宗商品波幅剧烈,昨日个别品种的集体跌停打乱了油脂类商品反弹上行的节奏,虽然油脂商品上多头主力在努力维持前期反弹上行态势,但昨日内盘期货市场的整体表现-完全有理由让我们散户朋友引起一份警惕心态(多亏有国际原油市场昨日晚间的长阳上涨带来一定心理支持)。简单一句话:在谨慎短多观点情怀下,保持一份谨慎防范心态,随时考虑逢高减仓多单的提前心理准备, 一颗红心两手准备,永远防范各种风险为第一要素,从昨日与今天开始逢高多单减仓开始纳入我们操作思维日程上来。

[SUMMARY]
• China derivatives markets were rattled yesterday, interrupting the upward reversal of edible oil products.
• Although the upward reversal of edible oils is being supported by buying pressure, retail traders should maintain high awareness about the market.

[ACTION]
• With high awareness, traders should be mentally prepared and willing to reduce long positions when prices are high.
• Avoiding risk remains the number one priority.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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