Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 01 February 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.02.2015周日 油脂商品本周回顾

1月26日-1月30日当周,美盘豆油3月下破箱体后惯性下跌,本周5个交易日内放量下挫,期价跌至30.00一线,价跌量增表明短线的空头氛围较浓,盘中的连续阴K线给市场的冲击力较大,恐慌性情绪蔓延油脂类商品。但是我们技术观察长期月K线图表,期价仍位于长期上升趋势线位置,30.00一直是我们很早以前所预期的回落位置,在心理上我们已有了一定防备。但短线上的连续重挫幅度略微还是超乎出一点想象,下跌天数也多出一天。美豆油3月在连续放量下跌之后,下跌动能随着成交量的放大而有所释放,短线下方空间我们依然不看的很大继续保持前观点。

在美豆油选择下破箱体后,其箱体的垂直距离为2美元(34.00-32.00 ),箱体下沿32.00减去2美元,30.00仍在可接受范围内,也符合短线技术预期。(横盘平台下破后,最少要跌原平台的垂直距离)在此期间,大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1505主力合约跟随美盘下探,截止到周五晚间盘中连续8连阴,(我们预期极限为7连阴)后周五晚间美盘中阳报收,恐下周一内盘油脂第8根K线将有所表现。

马来西亚毛棕榈油基准4月,本周5个交易日追随全球油脂商品的下跌,表现为三阳二阴抵抗下挫,期价已经临近前低2090位置,目前的回落调整幅度已经较前期充分,相信在前低位置技术性买盘下周初会有所出现,2100整数关应该起到一定支撑。

国际原油市场本周五晚间在多日低位震荡之后,出现可喜的红盘中阳K线,且一阳包多阴短线成立, 其中纽约原油已经出现技术上反弹走势雏形苗头,若下周一能得以延续,后市上的反弹行情恐将展开。

综述:本周由于美盘豆油的放量下跌,期价已经临近2008年末时候的新低,对全球油脂商品的拖累作用不可小视,大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品均被带动下跌。长期图表上美豆油由于仍在可接受范围内,因此个人觉得依然保持长线角度观点不变。短线角度而言,虽美豆油略下跌幅度过猛,但随之下跌动能的有效释放,下方空间已然被压缩,因此我们短线观点也没必要惊慌。个人观点认为前期短线空单逢低平仓出局后观望。建议中线激进操作者在美豆油30.00左右所对应的大陆内盘和马盘油脂商品上少量多单继续接盘试仓。其中马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,可在2100左右尝试进多,止损位设置在2090。而稳健型保守操作者可略微观察几日,待止跌信号更为明确后再进场接盘不迟,具体操作计划根据自己的操作模式;心理性格区别对待。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.