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Global Markets Analysis – 01 February 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.02.2016 周一 马盘因假期停盘;内盘与美盘成交萎缩,期价小幅波动

美盘豆油3月期价依旧在30.80一线小幅波动,日K线图表上涨动能略有衰竭,期价呈上下两难境界。从更长周期的周K线图表观察,美豆油恰好处于60周均线技术压制位置(31.10左右),在以往每当期价反弹到该位置均被技术性打压下来,这也是美盘豆油中线角度的最大技术压力位置,因此在这个位置空头主力所带来的压力不容小觑,这也造成美盘豆油短线走势上的尴尬地步的原因。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605合约,在美盘短线走势不明情况下,今天内盘油脂商品上多空主力在短线走势上均表现出谨慎,期价更多的呈十字星波动,上周五的中阴下跌对盘面的不利影响依旧存在,等待美盘豆油给出短线走势指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,上周五时候,期价跳空低开低走,下破日K线图表上60天均线的支撑,盘中短线走弱迹象较为明显。今天周一,是马来西亚联邦直辖区日(Federal Territory Day)公共假期而停盘一天,今天无交易。

小结:上周五时候,内盘与马盘油脂类商品率先出现期价走低现象,技术上出现反弹走坏迹象,特别是马盘毛棕榈油4月,期价再度下破60天均线的支撑。我们上周五时候已经建议短线激进型操作者的短线多单暂时平仓离场以规避风险,中长线的稳健型操作者也需要警惕起来,谨防期价再度疲软下挫,当前整体油脂类商品仍延续中长期爆跌之后的横盘震荡性质的筑大底过程中,短线上的期价上下反复将不可避免,因共振周期的不同步现象,我们操作上暂以短周期的操作思维为主,当前油脂商品在走势上较为不清晰,短线走势上也较为怪异,波段性质走势不够明确,操作难度也较以往增大,在此阶段我们更多的不以盈利为目的,暂以保本为操作理念。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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