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Global Markets Analysis – 01 July 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.07.2015 周三 美国农业部报收数据低于市场预期;美大豆美豆油飙涨

美国农业部周二(6月30日)发布季度库存报告以及播种面积数据,截止2015年6月1日,美国所有部位的大豆库存为6.25亿蒲式耳,同比提高54%,但低于市场预期的6.7亿蒲式耳。美国大豆播种面积预估数据为创纪录的8510万英亩,但同样低于市场分析人士预估值。数据公布后引发了美盘大豆与美盘豆油昨日晚间飙涨,其中美黄豆连长阳K线上涨5%以上,并且创出自2010年以来最大单日涨幅。美盘豆油12月合约昨日晚间同样红盘上涨,早盘时候的亚洲电子盘的走低瞬间被逆转,今天周三早盘当前期价运行在34.00左右,市场再次恢复走强迹象,符合我们对美盘豆油12月合约昨日短多观点的判断。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,昨日周二盘中,受大陆股票市场下跌影响,以及其他大宗商品期价下滑悲观气氛拖累,昨日豆油与棕榈油双双期价走低,其中豆油1601单个品种还出现技术走坏苗头(下破了60天线的支撑)。今天周三早盘在美盘大豆豆油长阳上涨带动下,内盘豆油与棕榈油1601合约又再次长阳K线走强,并且今天的长阳K线已经吞没昨日的中阴K线,市场短线转强走势再次明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,昨日受美盘豆油、亚洲电子盘、大陆内盘、中国股市走低的利空影响期价大幅跳空低开,盘中低开低走走弱。今天周三早盘,在美国农业部重要数据公布后,以及马来西亚政府公布的船运机构的调查报告(报告称6月份马来西亚棕榈油出口量为165万吨,比5月份出口量增加…6%-9%),受多重利好支持,今天周三早盘棕榈油基准9月合约再次跳空高开,期价有望再次走强。

小结:昨日中国股市演绎惊天逆转,早盘上证指数(上海沪指)大幅阴K线走低,后在中国政府呵护政策护盘后又大幅红盘阳K线走高,盘中大机构,大基金多空绞杀迹象明显。期货市场油脂商品在昨日走低,后在美盘晚间的大幅走高指引下,今天油脂商品再次恢复常态,反弹上行走势得以延续,短线观点上继续保持短多观点。中长线操作者多单继续持仓不动,短线操作者多单继续谨慎持有。(其中内盘豆油1601合约,昨天曾建议短空日内操作而日内操作是指“当天内进出,但不持仓过夜”以严格执行建议为准,不可马虎大意)后市仍以美盘豆油的具体走势作为风向标,单个品种的独立走势不具代表性。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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