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Global Markets Analysis – 01 June 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.06.2016 周三 油脂类商品继续短线看高一线

美盘豆油7月合约,昨日周二晚间开盘,期价高开高走;终盘以阳K线收盘,至此形成了2根错列的中阳线组合,短线反弹走势延续中,后市期价将挑战上方的上升趋势线(前几日是从趋势线上跌落下来),趋势线未来将成为阻挡?还是被向上突破则成为我们后市短线关注的新焦点。

在美盘豆油本次回落到30.00-31.00一线低点时候,美原油市场期价在5月末时候到达50.00美元/桶,二者在比价效应方面才基本达到一致水平。国际原油市场的表现-我们已经许久未过多的谈论过,因为我们很早以前就说过,在国际原油市场存在一支看不见的“黑手”,在操纵着国际原油正常价格,一种非理性的情绪在国际原油市场弥漫(有政治因素、有区域因素、有争夺原油话语权因素、有地缘因素 还有多国之间的明争暗斗;国际大财团在期间翻手为云覆手为雨)这已经远远超出大多市场分析人士的分析预期。在2015年末-2016年初,纽约原油价格被瞬间打压到26.00-27.00超低价格,虽然仅仅在低位维持了2个月时间,但这已经让投资市场血流成河,甚至部分国家如委内瑞拉、沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯等等国家处于 “国家破产”地步。在国际原油市场明争暗斗时候,中国方面却在国际原油市场低价位时候疯狂囤货,大陆国际原油战略储备上了一个新台阶。有消息称:中国2015年比2014年多进口了2500万吨原油,而花费却节约了5700个亿人民币-中国成为国际原油市场的最大受惠国。若从不到30美元又反弹到50美元左右这一线价格计算-若真有人如此操作,那利润是相当惊人的。(看来中国高层的经济智囊团里确实有高人在指点)。当前纽约原油期价从低位短线反弹到50.00整数关口后,短线出现了技术整理要求。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,从5月24日开始的短线反弹上行走势延续中,虽然期价上行幅度不大(昨天提到过,共振周期节奏不一致造成的),只要运行脚步未停止,我们继续短多看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,马盘棕榈期价稳扎稳打,短线反弹走势相对更为明显些,在昨日周二盘中期价已经上破60天均线,2610一线的阻挡,今天周三盘中期价仍在其上方运行,我们短多观点不变。认为多单继续持有。

小结:油脂类商品回落之后的短线反弹上行走势延续中,在美盘豆油涨幅尚未出现凌厉前,内盘与马盘油脂商品震荡向上运行,等待美盘更为凌厉的行情出现,我们短线短多观点保持不变,前期多单继续持有,后市期价继续看高一线。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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