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Global Markets Analysis – 01 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.03.2016 周二 油脂类商品强势回落整理延续中

美盘豆油5月,昨日周一晚间阴K线下跌,当前期价依旧在60天均线位置徘徊,该位置恰好也是日K线图表短线角度的上升趋势线位置(低点2015.11.16日与2016.1.12日低点连线),当前期价下挫回落到该位置,盘中明显受到2股技术支撑力量的支持,因此期价在关键技术位徘徊震荡必是不可避免。个人观点认为-该位置存在一定技术支撑,但也不排除瞬间的毛刺下破现象发生,在回落整理未完全结束前,我们继续短线上以短空观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,短线的追随性回落整理也在延续中,期价下挫回落后已经连续4天呈横盘状,盘中的抵抗情绪较浓,特别是棕榈油1605合约,期价的下挫还远远未到下方的60天均线位置(才到20天平均价位置),棕榈强与豆油弱现在还是较为明显。整体来说内盘油脂商品的短线回落整理仍在进行中,盘中未出现较为明显的回落整理结束信号,看空但不追空。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,前期的反弹上行之后的冲高回落整理也在延续中,期价回落到下方60天均线位置稍微出现止跌迹象,但据此就说整理已经结束还为时过早,我们再继续多观察几日,建议继续保持中长线看多,而短线角度以回落整理观点对待。

小结:油脂商品的短线回落整理进行中,下方的60天均线的支撑力度仍然在被考验中,我们此刻不能排除有瞬间的快速下破现象发生。因此操作上我们继续保持谨慎态度-继续以冲高后的回落整理观点看待。观点认为具体操作上:中长线长周期操作的多单继续持有,而短线激进操作者空单谨慎持有,当盘中出现急挫可部分空单平仓止盈离场,后市继续关注60天均线位置的支撑力度。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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