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Global Markets Analysis – 01 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.11.2016 周二 中国大豆进口量激增;冬季国内豆油需求强劲

10月31日华盛顿消息,美国大豆出口激增带动第三季度美国经济增长,美国农业部发布的出口检验周报显示-截止10月20日当周,美国对中国装运42船巴拿马货轮大豆,总数量超过230万吨,再上周已经装运了39船,保守估计10月份中国大豆进口量将达到650万吨左右。美国大豆进入11月已经接近收获尾声阶段,市场的炒作将会逐步转移到总需求上来,从近期美盘黄豆短线走势上观察,美大豆期价呈现震荡上扬态势。考虑到美豆油12月期价略显疲软,我们在中长线看多基础上,在短线角度以反弹之后的回落整理观点对待,下方的回落空间我们不认为很大,但短线仍需要规避一下,耐心等待从新多单进场机会的出现。

进入冬季,是中国大陆豆油的传统消费旺季,从国内三次菜籽油抛储拍卖100%成交,并且拍卖价格一次比一次高涨,市场的需求热情旺盛,这将提振后市内盘油脂商品的中线走势。考虑到内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1701合约,前期反弹上行之后盘中存在大量的多单获利盘,我们等待清洗出该获利盘之后,在更低价位从新进场,当前内盘油脂商品存在回落下方均线的可能,我们尽量规避该短线走势。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,短线反弹上行之后也同样出现技术横盘迹象,期价存在一定的技术超买苗头,当前马来西亚国内棕榈油产量与出口量双双下降(产量下降是马来西亚季节性因素、出口量下降是中国大陆冬季棕榈油存在因天冷凝结特征而使用量相应会减少),恐后市马盘棕榈油短线将追随美盘与内盘油脂商品走势,暂且出场观望一下。

国际原油期价近期出现反弹后的下挫,其中纽约原油期价已经回落到下方的60天均线位置,国际原油的回落整理走低恐将带动全球油脂类商品下挫,这也是我们主张多单出场观望的主要原因之一,当前美盘原油的短线回落整理行情延续中。

小结:国内11月份-12月份,中下游经销商“元旦”与“春节”提前备货,国内豆油刚性需求旺盛,我们后期对待油脂类商品继续保持中长线看多观点不变。但对于短线角度的油脂类商品走势来说-我们却要保持一份冷静,在美国大豆收获季节最后一次单产上调利空情绪影响下,在国际原油回落整理走势影响下,在诸多获利盘涌出的心理压力下,在技术超买后的回落整理技术要求下-都提醒我们保持一定的警惕。观点认为具体操作上:多单逢高出局后,散户交易者暂时场外观望,其中部分激进型“实在手痒”的交易者可适量空单进场交易,但日内见好就收;不建议持仓过夜。短线走势我们以谨慎的回落整理走势看待。

[SUMMARY]
• Owing to stocking up ahead of Chinese New Year, demand for soybean oil is strong in China.
• We maintain our medium and long-term outlook.
• With the harvest of US soybean coming to an end, accompanied by a decline in crude oil, we shall remain cautious about the short-term, especially when the market is undergoing a correction after a technical overselling.

[ACTION]
• Retail traders who had close-out long positions at high prices may remain uncommitted and observe the market on the sidelines.
• Aggressive short-term traders may enter short positions but are advised not to hold positions overnight and take intraday profit.
• We shall pay close attention to the market correction.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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