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Global Markets Analysis – 02 April 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.04.2015 周四 报告公布后油脂商品市场表现平淡

国际原油市场期价近期小幅波动,其中纽约原油当前仍然维持在50.00美元一线,向上向下运行的动能均不强。依然处于我们早先预期的震荡筑大底(中长线的大底)过程中,后市我们继续保持此观点不变。

油脂类商品,在昨日美国农业部公布报告后,市场表现平淡,中性的报告对短线的油脂类商品影响力度较小,未能形成明确的方向性指引。在大豆播种意向与季度期末库存明朗后,后期油脂类商品恐将逐步转为对天气的炒作上。

美盘豆油5月合约,短线走势仍在前低附近震荡,市场继续考验前低的技术支撑效果。中长线的30.00左右筑大底酝酿迹象明显,但短线的后期走势模糊,盘面表现一般。美黄豆连续短线走势虽略强于美豆油,但上方存在60天线的技术压力。

中国大陆油脂商品现货市场平静,其中各港口豆油库存维持在较低水平(71万吨左右)。内盘豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约继续在前低附近震荡,在美豆油短线走势不明朗前恐内盘将继续保持低位的震荡行情。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,短线市场人气仍陷于一片纠结中,期价的窄幅波动,阴阳相间的K先右侧横盘,令短线交易者无所适从,恐此行情仍将维持一段时间。

小结:国际原油市场的低迷,南美大豆即将大范围上市,后期天气情况的不明朗。造成当前油脂类商品陷入困惑中。长期观点上认为对于当前期价在低位的小幅震荡仍以震荡筑大底观点看待。对于短线走势上的不明朗,我们以场外观望对待。个人建议前期中线接盘多单设置止损位谨慎持有,为规避风险而锁单操作者在行情不明朗时候暂不建议开锁。新短线操作者建议停止频繁操作共同场外观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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