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Global Markets Analysis – 02 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.08.2016 周二 美盘豆油12月合约期价出现反复

美盘豆油12月,上周五红盘中阳上涨之后,昨日周一晚间又意外中阴下跌,盘中期价出现反复。美盘豆油这种“反复无常”的短线走势在今年上半年已经出现过好几次,每当内盘与马盘油脂商品出现反弹欲望时,美盘豆油总是一不小心就拖后腿,未给予有力的支持。对于美盘豆油这种多空转换频率较快的操作手法,提醒我们在以后操作中要提升一些警惕心态。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,内盘豆油在紧密追随美盘豆油短线走势的同时,内盘棕榈油1701主力合约已经跃跃欲试的反弹上攻,考虑到内盘的前期表现始终强于美盘豆油,我们继续保持短多反弹观点不变,多单继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,受美盘豆油与纽约原油昨日晚间下跌影响,今天周二早盘低开,随后在盘中多头抵抗下低开高走,短线做多的热情仍存。昨日马来西亚船运调查机构公布7月份棕榈油出口数据-ITS与SGS两家机构公布的数据显示,马来西亚7月份棕榈油出口数量均比6月份提高12.69%与15.44%,这在一定程度上抑制了马盘棕榈油的期价下跌,我们同样短多思维看待。

小结:美盘油脂商品仍在天气炒作大背景下-忽好忽坏的天气情绪的担忧直接在盘面操作上得以体现,令美盘大豆与美盘豆油期价教容易持续大的波动反复。考虑到内盘与马盘油脂商品的短线做多热情未减,我们继续保持对油脂商品的短多观点不变,暂且不去太多理会美盘豆油期价的反复,前期多单继续持有,耐心等待美盘超跌之后的技术支持。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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