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Global Markets Analysis – 02 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.12.2014周二 恐慌情绪下市场人心不稳期价剧烈波动

国际原油价格走势是全球大宗商品的风向标,这句话再次被市场所证明。近几日原油的惯性暴跌,已经令全球大宗商品集体被出卖,期货市场在一片鬼哭狼嚎声中,多空散户被市场主力绞杀,(恐怕只有一小部分散户朋友侥幸逃脱了风险)恐慌情绪弥漫全球所有商品品种上,俗话说小乱小行情,大乱大行情,市场大鳄主力恰恰正是期待这种局面的发生。

昨日周一晚间,美原油快速下挫见新低63.72美元后又迅速探底回升,终盘以带下影线阳K线收盘,瞬间令多空散户措手不及,贵金属黄金与白银、有色基础金属铜与锌更是紧随其后,翻江倒海般市场腾挪躲闪,恐慌情绪下的多空大主力博弈演绎的异常激烈,期间不排除部分散户因躲闪不急给误伤其中。

昨日中国大陆内盘豆油、棕榈油、菜籽油三大油脂1505主力合约集体跌停,这已经是多年来不常见的现象。大陆豆油综合指数已经跌破2008年金融危机的低点,瞬间创8年来(2006年)的新低。

周一晚间美盘豆油1月,盘中下破原横盘区间箱体的下沿31.80–32.00位置,后又因原油的红盘回升,美豆油下破箱体的失地被收复,终盘以带下影线阳十字星收盘,期价瞬间穿刺后暂时又回到横盘箱体内。但是否下箱体支撑有效,我们需要在时间上得以验证,当前在美原油尚未明显止跌前我们对美豆油短线上走势仍报怀疑态度。 美豆油长期图表 月图表上期价仍在长期上升趋势线位置受到支撑 目前还算有效(前面报告有附此图),短线上 日图表上的下箱体仍然处于岌岌可危状态(日图表的箱体图近几日报告中我们也有附图)我们刚才所指的怀疑态度是对此后者短线来说的。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,上周五从日图表60天线支撑位置跳下来后,行情出现走坏迹象,昨日周一继续惯性跳空下行,在前低2014年10月16日前波谷低点处勉强收十字星,今天早盘受美盘下影线红盘探底收盘影响跳空高开, 恰好技术上弥补了上周五与本周一之间K线的跳空缺口,短线上仍未处于震荡下挫走势中,大陆内盘与马盘的一日高开尚不能确定短线的下滑出现逆转,短线上我们继续保持看淡观点,同时密切关注美豆油下箱体处的走势表现,再做决定不迟。

小结:我们既要关注大的风向标-国际原油的走势对全球期货市场大宗商品走势的影响,我们也要关注小风向标-美盘豆油对油脂商品以及农产品走势的指引,同时我们更要关注大风向标原油对小风向标美豆油的关联性压制作用,当前美大豆与美豆油在出口激增背景下仍惯性下挫,表明美大豆与美豆油已经脱离了自身基本面,受国际原油大市场气候影响较为严重。对马盘和大陆内盘油脂商品来说我们需要从短线到长线;密切关注美豆油与美原油的具体走势,在走势未出现明显逆转技术信号前,我们仍需短线看空观点,虽然我们一直强调下方空间不是很大,盘中也出现期价的反复,但我们一定要谨防猛的下蹲所带来的后续风险。个人观点认为短线空单继续持有;长线角度的接盘多单先规避当前恐慌情绪下行情,待本波下蹲结束后再考虑机会入场。(当前此话为后话)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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