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Global Markets Analysis – 02 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.12.2016 周五 欧佩克组织减产协议的达成;给予国际原油市场一针强心剂

11月30日深夜原油输出国组织欧佩克减产协议的达成,如一针强心剂般提振了全球原油期货市场整体走高。美盘原油连已经连续2天长阳飙涨(11月30日-12月1日),2根长阳K线涨幅已经达到10%还多,我们继续看高国际原油价格一线, 直到本利多消息被完全吸收消化完毕时刻。

受国际原油长阳上涨提振,美盘豆油1月,12月1日昨日晚间也中阳红盘上涨,期价创出新高38.04,美豆油的短线反弹行情正如我们所料-仍在延续中,我们密切关注美盘豆油本波反弹的新高度。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约,今天周五盘面表现欠佳,虽然美盘豆油昨日中阳上涨,但内盘油脂商品今日却并未紧紧追随,依然存在我们昨日报告中所提到的“一种力不从心”的感觉,我们继续谨慎看多情怀中保持那份警惕心态,谨防变盘情况的发生。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,今天周五早盘跳空高开,创出新高3106令吉特。随后盘面逐步走软-减仓下行的盘面特征,表明存在部分多头主力逢高多单出逃迹象。马盘棕榈油短线走势证明了我们前期研判观-后市存在新高,也就是说11月24日当天的高点不是本波最高点的观点,但我们思维上依旧建议,随后未来几天寻找盘中新高点多单尽量兑现筹码出局。

小结:美盘豆油创出新高,内盘油脂商品未发力追随,马盘棕榈高开后低走-种种迹象表明,内盘与马盘油脂商品短线上行动能出现衰竭苗头,我们依旧延续昨日观点,多单继续逢高减仓(逢高点;越涨越平仓)。具体操作上:在美盘豆油再创新高的时候,在相对应的内盘与马盘期货市场上多单逢高兑现筹码与锁定利润;谨防后市出现新的变盘信号的发生(看紧钱袋子,不能让前期利润化为乌有)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil broke new high but China edible oils were not able to follow and Malaysia palm oil began to ease.
• These signs point to a deceleration of the short-term uptrend of China and Malaysia edible oils.
• We maintain our outlook from yesterday: reduce long positions at high prices when possible.

[ACTION]
• Traders may close-out long positions in China and Malaysia markets to lock-in on profits when US soybean oil achieves another new high.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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